Alex Smith traded to Redskins and signs 4 year extension

Van Everyman

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It is indeed Fuller. Apparently he was one of the last to know. Welcome to how the Washington Area Football Team operates

This is actually good stuff from Fuller.

Was Brees the last unrestricted FA QB to really hit the market with no major red flags (barring the shoulder injury that prompted the Dolphins to sign Culpepper)?
 

DeadlySplitter

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I haven't seen a trade roundly panned like this in awhile. I would guess the Redskins don't have much of an advanced stats department.
 

streeter88

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Assuming Kendall Fuller is OK with moving away from almost his hometown to the Midwest, does he view this trade as a positive? On the surface, it looks like the Chiefs just got better.
 

E5 Yaz

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Reid better be sure that the time is right for Mahomes
 

Average Reds

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This is going to be crazy offseason for quarterbacks. I presume Brees and Garoppolo stay with their teams, but then you have questions about Taylor, Bortles, Jay Cutler, the three Vikings, Cousins, Foles, Eli, Glennon (FWIW) and possibly four quarterbacks going in the first six picks and I probably forgot a couple. This is shoe #1.
Foles has a year left on his deal. And I can’t believe that Jay Cutler will be a hot commodity.

Still, a crazy offseason for QBs.

Edit: oh, and Dan Snyder is a moron.
 

Royal Reader

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Foles has a year left on his deal. And I can’t believe that Jay Cutler will be a hot commodity.

Still, a crazy offseason for QBs.

Edit: oh, and Dan Snyder is a moron.
Cutler still has the FOX deal, he just postponed it a year to help out Adam Gase.

I like this from the KC perspective. Betting the farm on Mahomes is obviously a risk, but it looks like they decided they didn't want to be in the Joe Flacco not-quite-good-enough QB/megacontract zone, went for the young cheap QB to spend the money on the surrounding cast, and got they guy in the building for a year to learn the system before throwing him in.

For Washington, it's not horrible, but the contract is 2-3 million annually more than I'd want to commit to Smith.
 

mauf

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I think Denver or Jacksonville have to be kicking themselves for not landing Smith (unless they are going for Cousins). I think Smith on a team with the talent to go far in the playoffs is the ideal situation; I don’t know how much he can prop up Washington’s offense.
Denver appears to prefer Cousins, and I think Jacksonville has decided after two playoff wins to give Bortles another year — which is a bad decision imo, but I don’t think they were caught napping on Smith.

This trade is a best-case scenario for Cousins — by landing in Washington, Smith doesn’t take away a potential landing spot for Cousins and doesn’t push another plausible starting QB onto the market.
 

Gunfighter 09

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went for the young cheap QB to spend the money on the surrounding cast
Of note, before the draft or Free Agency, the Chiefs now have $7M in cap room. They aren't adding anything of consequence in FA to help out Mahomes, he's stuck with what they have, which is very good. They could make another $7-10M in room cutting Tamba Hali / Erick Fischer / parts and could restructure Houston, but part of their motivation to do this now was that their cap was completely fucked (-$9M) pre Smith trade and this cleared $17M off the books against only $3M in dead money.
 

mauf

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This is going to be crazy offseason for quarterbacks. I presume Brees and Garoppolo stay with their teams, but then you have questions about Taylor, Bortles, Jay Cutler, the three Vikings, Cousins, Foles, Eli, Glennon (FWIW) and possibly four quarterbacks going in the first six picks and I probably forgot a couple. This is shoe #1.
Smith landing in Washington cuts down sharply on the number of potential dominos. The Browns and Giants will address the QB situation through the draft. There will be a bidding war for Cousins, which I assume will be won by an otherwise respectable team with a dreadful QB situation (Broncos/Cardinals/Jets). I’m sure there will be a carousel for the likes of McCown/Bradford/Glennon, and maybe even Eli, but I’m not expecting the kind of turnover that seemed likely just a few weeks ago — most of your teams with fringy QB situations (Jaguars, Vikings, Bills, et al.) are going to end up rolling the dice on one of their internal options.
 

mauf

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Of note, before the draft or Free Agency, the Chiefs now have $7M in cap room. They aren't adding anything of consequence in FA to help out Mahomes, he's stuck with what they have, which is very good. They could make another $7-10M in room cutting Tamba Hali / Erick Fischer / parts and could restructure Houston, but part of their motivation to do this now was that their cap was completely fucked (-$9M) pre Smith trade and this cleared $17M off the books against only $3M in dead money.
People wondered a year ago why Andy Reid abruptly fired his GM. This cap situation is why.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Is a tough problem. I think Cousins is good and would be the best Jets QB in my memory (think about that for a minute). O'Brien, Boomer, Testaverde, and Penny were probably all a bit worse than Cousins. But, Cousins is not Brady, Rodgers, prime Rapist, or the Tennessee Teabag, so it's tough to commit that kid of loot to him.
I think people are going to have to learn to move away from this type of perspective.

Foles, Bortles, Keenum, Brady. 3 of the top 5 defenses in the league.

We had an unprecedented surge of QB talent for about a decade. Brady, Brees, Manning, Big Ben, Rodgers, Favre, Warner, Rivers...obviously theres tiers to the talent tree, but the league struck gold with the blend of talent and rule changes. There's been plenty of discussion on replenishing the talent pool, but we may never see that level of competenence from the QB position again.

The league is all about agility, and it's showing how quickly it can pivot. Scoring is down. The QB pool is deep, but not as prolific. Versatile running backs like Kamara, David Johnson, etc may become the new market efficiency over TEs and slot receivers. Defenses are back, baby!

Over the next few years, I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect teams lead by guys like Cousins, Ryan, Watson, etc to be competitive for the SB based on team balance. It's how it was up until this recent stretch, and it looks like that's how things are trending back again.
 

tims4wins

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Denver appears to prefer Cousins, and I think Jacksonville has decided after two playoff wins to give Bortles another year — which is a bad decision imo, but I don’t think they were caught napping on Smith.

This trade is a best-case scenario for Cousins — by landing in Washington, Smith doesn’t take away a potential landing spot for Cousins and doesn’t push another plausible starting QB onto the market.
Re: the bolded, this smells an awful lot like the Jets and Sanchez back in the 2010 timeframe.

Re: Jax / Den potentially caught napping, isn't it entirely possible that A) KC was going to trade Smith to the NFC and B) they felt they got a great deal from Danny?
 

dcmissle

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Agree with everything you say. My only point was Washington’s offense is built on the QB airing it out a lot more than Smith ever does.
But Cousins never executed that offense to Jay Gruden’s satisfaction; more than a few people here called him Checkdown Charlie. That’s what happens, in 2017, when your front office lets Jackson and Garçon leave without replacing them. And that’s what happens, in all years, when the FO degrades the QB publicly, leaves him looking over his shoulder, to the point where the guy just has to avoid picks. Typical toxic DC nonsense.

The great concern going forward is that Smith will be going from a full cupboard to an empty one. He has Chris Thompson and a very good o-line when healthy, and that is it. None of the KC weapons. (I take Kelce over Jordan Reid 100 times out of 100 because Reid simply cannot stay healthy.)
 

dcmissle

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Alex Smith - $23 million a year
Tom Brady - $22 million a year (base + roster bonus + signing bonus)
Enjoy it while it lasts because Brady’s situation is as common as the Hope Diamond and will not happen again for the NEP in our lifetimes.

The most ridiculous argument in the world is that the NEP’s superiority is reflected in TB’s contract status. It’s all Brady’s generosity and desire to win.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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Broncos are being mentioned as top landing spot for Cousins.
I wouldn't mind this much. I think it gives them maybe a one year window because he's going to destroy their cap situation, and I don't think they'll be able to pull it all together.

Was shocked to see that Cousins turns 30 before the season kicks off. How many years is he going to get? I have to think it's at least 6 and potentially up to 8.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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But Cousins never executed that offense to Jay Gruden’s satisfaction; more than a few people here called him Checkdown Charlie. That’s what happens, in 2017, when your front office lets Jackson and Garçon leave without replacing them. And that’s what happens, in all years, when the FO degrades the QB publicly, leaves him looking over his shoulder, to the point where the guy just has to avoid picks. Typical toxic DC nonsense.

The great concern going forward is that Smith will be going from a full cupboard to an empty one. He has Chris Thompson and a very good o-line when healthy, and that is it. None of the KC weapons. (I take Kelce over Jordan Reid 100 times out of 100 because Reid simply cannot stay healthy.)
If they thought Cousins checked down too much, they're going to love Smith.
 

BaseballJones

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Enjoy it while it lasts because Brady’s situation is as common as the Hope Diamond and will not happen again for the NEP in our lifetimes.

The most ridiculous argument in the world is that the NEP’s superiority is reflected in TB’s contract status. It’s all Brady’s generosity and desire to win.
Totally agree. Brady could have made a LOT more money, and his willingness to take less than full market value has been a big reason for New England's success over the years. Granted, no other QBs have a wife that makes what Giselle makes, but still. This is a not-often mentioned aspect of the dynasty.
 

dcmissle

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If they thought Cousins checked down too much, they're going to love Smith.
Yup. Gruden is a passing guru and very talented offensive mind. But he has no choice now but to develop a running game. Smith is a good fit for West coast, but not the pass heavy variant Gruden prefers to run.
 

edmunddantes

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He is a smart guy. Smart people keep an open mind about every opportunity.

We will see something soon that the NFL has never seen before —a very good starting QB (not elite, but very good) gets to totally unrestricted free agency. Cousins hit the jackpot because the Redskins were foolish and he was smart and disciplined.

What’s the Jets’ cap situation?
This is actually good stuff from Fuller.

Was Brees the last unrestricted FA QB to really hit the market with no major red flags (barring the shoulder injury that prompted the Dolphins to sign Culpepper)?
Brees is also fully unrestricted again this year. He's just making noise that he only wants to stay in New Orleans. The Saints can't tag him. It was part of his last contract that they can't use the franchise tag on him. There is also the age factor, but imagine Brees with Jacksonville for 2-3 years.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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The Jags committing to Blake Bortles (at $19M next year for his option) while Smith was available for a 2nd+ and Cousins for nothing but money is just bad roster management. The Patriots and other short term AFC contenders dodged a serious bullet on that one.

Minnesota really makes the most sense for Cousins. They have tons of cap space and the best surrounding talent. I'm sure Elway will make a strong pitch but I think Cousins is smart enough to realize that team is on the way down while the Vikings are on the way up.
 

mauf

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Re: the bolded, this smells an awful lot like the Jets and Sanchez back in the 2010 timeframe.

Re: Jax / Den potentially caught napping, isn't it entirely possible that A) KC was going to trade Smith to the NFC and B) they felt they got a great deal from Danny?
I’m sure there was zero chance the Chiefs would trade Smith to the Broncos. I don’t know if they had similar reservations about trading him to Jacksonville; it’s certainly possible, but as I said, I think JAX had taken themselves out of the market anyway. (And I think your analogy to Sanchize is prescient.)
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Brees is also fully unrestricted again this year. He's just making noise that he only wants to stay in New Orleans. The Saints can't tag him. It was part of his last contract that they can't use the franchise tag on him. There is also the age factor, but imagine Brees with Jacksonville for 2-3 years.
Bortles is owed $19M on an option that is guaranteed for injury, and he just recently had wrist surgery. So they may be on the hook for that amount no matter what if his wrist is still recovering by the start of the new league year in early March. Ooops.
 

mauf

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I wouldn't mind this much. I think it gives them maybe a one year window because he's going to destroy their cap situation, and I don't think they'll be able to pull it all together.

Was shocked to see that Cousins turns 30 before the season kicks off. How many years is he going to get? I have to think it's at least 6 and potentially up to 8.
I’m guessing he gets a 10-year deal structured such that the last 2-3 years are unlikely to be earned, and allowing the team to move on after year 5 with less-than-crippling cap pain.
 

Ed Hillel

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The Jags committing to Blake Bortles (at $19M next year for his option) while Smith was available for a 2nd+ and Cousins for nothing but money is pretty mind boggling. The Patriots and other short term AFC contenders dodged a serious bullet on that one.
Well that Bortles money isn’t guaranteed unless he can’t pass a physical (which apparently he might not). But apparently they want him back now anyway so thanks Jags!

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/31/report-jaguars-expected-to-keep-blake-bortles-next-year/
I’m guessing he gets a 10-year deal structured such that the last 2-3 years are unlikely to be earned, and allowing the team to move on after year 5 with less-than-crippling cap pain.
I’m pretty sure contracts are capped at five years now so that teams can’t spread out bonus money Bobby Bonilla style.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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Well that Bortles money isn’t guaranteed unless he can’t pass a physical (which apparently he might not). But apparently they want him back now anyway so thanks Jags!

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/31/report-jaguars-expected-to-keep-blake-bortles-next-year/

I’m pretty sure contracts are capped at five years now so that teams can’t spread out bonus money Bobby Bonilla style.
I can't tell if the length is capped at 5 years or if the signing bonus and guaranteed money being spread out is capped at 5 years. Carr signed only a 5 year deal last year, but Luck signed a 6 year deal in 2016.
 

Super Nomario

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I think people are going to have to learn to move away from this type of perspective.

Foles, Bortles, Keenum, Brady. 3 of the top 5 defenses in the league.

We had an unprecedented surge of QB talent for about a decade. Brady, Brees, Manning, Big Ben, Rodgers, Favre, Warner, Rivers...obviously theres tiers to the talent tree, but the league struck gold with the blend of talent and rule changes. There's been plenty of discussion on replenishing the talent pool, but we may never see that level of competenence from the QB position again.

The league is all about agility, and it's showing how quickly it can pivot. Scoring is down. The QB pool is deep, but not as prolific. Versatile running backs like Kamara, David Johnson, etc may become the new market efficiency over TEs and slot receivers. Defenses are back, baby!

Over the next few years, I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect teams lead by guys like Cousins, Ryan, Watson, etc to be competitive for the SB based on team balance. It's how it was up until this recent stretch, and it looks like that's how things are trending back again.
The problem is money. Foles, Bortles, and Keenum are all on cheap deals. You can live with getting just OK performance from QB if it gets you an extra $20 MM to invest elsewhere on your team. The problem is if you're paying a guy like that (or Smith or Cousins) $20 - $25 MM and you're just getting OK performance. Because maybe you're right and we won't see more MVP-type Bradys and Rodgerses who are generating $40 MM of value on a $25 MM contract, but you're still competing with teams who are getting $15-$25 MM value from a QB on a rookie deal or a cheap deal. That's the problem.
 

slamminsammya

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I have a really hard time not taking Brees at his word. He is the heart and soul of New Orleans. Brees is to NO what TB is to NE. It’s very difficult see him elsewhere.
I meant when he signed in New Orleans he was totally a free agent, and pretty good although not as good as he became.

But that was what, 2003? It has been a while.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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We had an unprecedented surge of QB talent for about a decade. Brady, Brees, Manning, Big Ben, Rodgers, Favre, Warner, Rivers...obviously theres tiers to the talent tree, but the league struck gold with the blend of talent and rule changes. There's been plenty of discussion on replenishing the talent pool, but we may never see that level of competenence from the QB position again.
Completely agree with this. I mean who is the best QB under 34 not named Rodgers and taking into account injury concerns? Russell Wilson? Matt Ryan?

I don't know if this is just a talent cycle if there is something more structural going on but one of the current problems with the NFL is that the current set of rules really put an emphasis on good QB play and there just aren't that many good QBs to go around.
 

RedOctober3829

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He is a smart guy. Smart people keep an open mind about every opportunity.

We will see something soon that the NFL has never seen before —a very good starting QB (not elite, but very good) gets to totally unrestricted free agency. Cousins hit the jackpot because the Redskins were foolish and he was smart and disciplined.

What’s the Jets’ cap situation?
The Jets will have around $100 million once they cut a few guys including Muhammad Wilkerson. They'll have more than enough money to go after Kirk Cousins.
 

Jungleland

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I'm not necessarily out on the Jags as a domino here - there were reports all of 5 days ago that they would move on from Bortles for Cousins or Smith. Hard to take a "Bortles is our guy this year" at full face value while the better of those two is still out there.

From a neutral fan perspective, Minnesota moving on from all three of its guys and signing Kirk would be by far the most entertaining way to shake this up.
 

dcmissle

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I meant when he signed in New Orleans he was totally a free agent, and pretty good although not as good as he became.

But that was what, 2003? It has been a while.
Brees was with SD through the 2005 season, at the end of which he tore his labrum. Damaged goods when he hit FA. Miami (in)famously passed on him, which makes Alabama happy.
 

Reverend

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Completely agree with this. I mean who is the best QB under 34 not named Rodgers and taking into account injury concerns? Russell Wilson? Matt Ryan?

I don't know if this is just a talent cycle if there is something more structural going on but one of the current problems with the NFL is that the current set of rules really put an emphasis on good QB play and there just aren't that many good QBs to go around.
Football doesn’t have a true development league in that the college game is different.

Football had an institutional “problem” that they’ve never been forced to address in that their talent pipeline isn’t designed to produce guys who play the most important position as it is done in the pros.

Maybe the XFL can help? ;)
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Completely agree with this. I mean who is the best QB under 34 not named Rodgers and taking into account injury concerns? Russell Wilson? Matt Ryan?

I don't know if this is just a talent cycle if there is something more structural going on but one of the current problems with the NFL is that the current set of rules really put an emphasis on good QB play and there just aren't that many good QBs to go around.
I think the young QB talent pool looks worse than it really is, due to a combination of injuries and talented guys like Winston and Carr landing in somewhat dysfunctional situations, which tends to happen with young QBs in general.

Wentz (25)
Luck (28)
Wilson (29)
Carr (26)
Newton (28)
Stafford (29)
Cousins (29)
Goff (23)
Winston (23)
Prescott (24)

That's a pretty good set of QBs under 30.
 

Carmine Hose

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Some thoughts based on some points made in the thread ...

* It doesn't seem the Jags "chose" Bortles at $19M for next year, but rather are stuck with him due to his surgery, since his injury guarantee kicks in. Even if Jags were an option, why would KC trade a competent QB to a team that needs one and just went to the AFCCG?
* Chiefs weren't going to trade Smith in their division to the Broncos, so Denver didn't miss out here. It seems also likely they weren't going to trade him in conference either, so they looked at NFC teams that weren't going to be able to go the draft route (NYG). That would be Washington and Arizona. Arizona would have little incentive to outbid Washington, since Cousins is freed up after.
* It's the Redskins, so it's hard to get incredulous that they ended up giving Smith $70M when they didn't have to. He's signed for 2018 and then you can franchise him (total cost of that is half of what they gave him) as the placeholder for someone you draft and develop to succeed him. It would be even crazier if Washington had to pitch in Fuller as a condition for him agreeing to sign an extension ("If he doesn't agree to an extension, you get a 3rd. if he does, then we add a good CB." - that's f*cking yourself twice. Nice!)
 

Phil Plantier

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Does "guaranteed for injury" really mean that, as long as the player can't play on the date of the exam, the contract is guaranteed, no matter the prognosis? That would seem to lead to a "Victory"-style gaming of the system, where a player breaks an arm in order to get the guaranteed money, while regaining full health for the season.
 

bakahump

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Correct. College Football does a terrible job of developing QBs. To much running/RPO/Scrambling/ Hero ball combined with facing defenses that have 1 maybe 2 NFL quality Guys.

Its like if College Baseball and the Development leagues only coached Fastballs. And the Guys throwing them were athletic enough to get by with only Fastballs. The you throw them into the Majors where guys tee off on them.

When as an NFL QB you suddenly face "Alabama+ at every Position on Defense" which is essentially what the Pros are and you are asked to run a different offense its no wonder they failure rate is so high.

Its also why the NFL Drafts QBs as much on Ht, Wt, Arm Strength as anything else. Cause the "experience" they do have is essentially worthless.

I also think Athletics is more valuable then intelligence in the college game, while its vice versa in the NFL. Thats not to say that the NFL QB isnt an amazing athlete he is. Thats the problem. EVERYONE is. So you simply cant beat other teams with Athletics alone. Which many of these kids have done for the last 8 years of their HS and College careers.

Who was the last really great prospect who came in and was "Successful" directly from the college game? Luck? Newton? Both threw nearly as many INTs as TDs their rookie year. Probably Wilson
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Does "guaranteed for injury" really mean that, as long as the player can't play on the date of the exam, the contract is guaranteed, no matter the prognosis? That would seem to lead to a "Victory"-style gaming of the system, where a player breaks an arm in order to get the guaranteed money, while regaining full health for the season.
Our friends at ITP say that guarantee for injury means that contract is paid if the player can't pass a physical at the time of release. To avoid that, teams wait until a player is healthy to cut them. See Tyrod Taylor situation over (I believe) last offeason.
 

Carmine Hose

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In the case of Bortles, he would not be able to pass a physical by the time he needs to be released in March to avoid the $19M. They could still get rid of him, but he'd be on their books (maybe they can do one of those post-June 1 designations to split that hit between 2018 and 2019 cap years). Given all that, they are stuck with him
 

TFisNEXT

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I think the young QB talent pool looks worse than it really is, due to a combination of injuries and talented guys like Winston and Carr landing in somewhat dysfunctional situations, which tends to happen with young QBs in general.

Wentz (25)
Luck (28)
Wilson (29)
Carr (26)
Newton (28)
Stafford (29)
Cousins (29)
Goff (23)
Winston (23)
Prescott (24)

That's a pretty good set of QBs under 30.
Don't forget Deshaun Watson (22 years old) of Houston.
 

Royal Reader

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Of note, before the draft or Free Agency, the Chiefs now have $7M in cap room. They aren't adding anything of consequence in FA to help out Mahomes, he's stuck with what they have, which is very good. They could make another $7-10M in room cutting Tamba Hali / Erick Fischer / parts and could restructure Houston, but part of their motivation to do this now was that their cap was completely fucked (-$9M) pre Smith trade and this cleared $17M off the books against only $3M in dead money.
Yeah, I wasn't implying they were going to go out and splurge in FA - they needed to go young to keep the band together. That's what I meant by "Supporting cast."