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ALCS Game 3: E-O-VAL-DI!

Discussion in '2018 Red Sox Game Threads' started by DrewDawg, Oct 16, 2018.

  1. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    4,180
    His walk off Sipp was impressive too. It didn’t matter but that was a tough at-bat. He looks good at the plate. We can survive the D.
     
  2. teddywingman

    teddywingman Looks like Zach Galifianakis SoSH Member

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    Agree. These percentages quoted like meaningful data are are ludicrous . Remember that JBJ catch in deep left center at Fenway this summer that was given ~80% catch probability? When all of us who watch a lot of baseball know that the likelihood of a catch was closer to 10% or less...
    The people coming up with these stats are the Eric Vans of the world.
     
  3. S. H. Frog

    S. H. Frog Member SoSH Member

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    Just watched the condensed game. The look on Nolan Ryan's wife's face when JBJ goes yard is priceless. You can see it in the slo-mo shot of the swing, after JBJ rounds the bases. Just a stunned 'oh.'
     
  4. rodderick

    rodderick Member SoSH Member

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  5. DamageTrain

    DamageTrain Member SoSH Member

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    upload_2018-10-17_8-43-24.png
     
  6. fenwaypaul

    fenwaypaul Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Where were Bolt, Beranek and Newman when we needed them?
     
  7. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    I love that one lady in the Sox jersey standing up and clapping like "Yeah motherfuckers".
     
  8. pk1627

    pk1627 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    100,000 hackers can have a definitive shot up on twitter within minutes, and the crack NY replay team hasn’t a clue.
     
  9. esfr

    esfr Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Sound travels more slowly than light so the audio alone is conclusive with even a rudimentary understanding of science.
     
  10. dhappy42

    dhappy42 Member

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    Funny thing is the umpiring crew didn’t need video to make the correct call. They could have asked Kemp for the ball. If it was scuffed by the wall, then no catch.
     
  11. bob burda

    bob burda Member SoSH Member

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    Interesting, as my initial reaction was to the sound. At the time I said out loud "replay it - NOW" just based on the sound. When I couldn't see the deflection on the replay I thought they got it right based on the std for reversing, but I was still thinking "WTH?...so where did that 'clang' come from?"

    The issue may really boil down to whether the sound is conclusive proof it hit the wall, and I'm not so sure that would ever be a majority view.
     
  12. Wake49

    Wake49 Member SoSH Member

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  13. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    So, combined with his diving-roll-into-the-Monster catch (42% catch rate), JBJ appears to have ghosted Statcast on their first date.
     
  14. LesterFan

    LesterFan Member SoSH Member

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    Which is not what I'm saying. If you're talking about changing the angle and exit velocity then the ball is not hit like Bradley's.

    I'm saying a ball hit like Bradley's (100.5 mph EV, 36 degree launch angle) to center is most likely not going to be a homer. A perfect example was Granderson last night. 102.5 EV, 37 degree launch angle and it was a flyout to the track in center.

    The hit probability, like I said, doesn't take into account the park or what part of the park it's hit to. So ~50/50 whether it's a hit or not sounds right to me. If you can ensure you're hitting it to right where the distance is 330 ft like Bradley did, then yeah the hit probability would be 100%.

    And of course the weather and wind are also not factored in. On a cold night in Fenway I'm not sure that ball is gone.
     
  15. Adrian's Dome

    Adrian's Dome Member SoSH Member

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    I know it's not what you're saying. Unfortunately you missed the point, which is that a ball hit like Bradley's, except to center, wouldn't be the same hit ball.

    You can't say that's a 50% chance of a hit. It's idiotic. That ball hit to right in those conditions is a dong in nearly every stadium. If it's hit to center, it's not that hit.

    It's like saying "well, that lined shot up the middle wouldn't have been a hit if the batter had lined it to the first baseman." Yeah, no shit. Not helpful or insightful at all.
     
  16. LesterFan

    LesterFan Member SoSH Member

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    I think you're the one missing the point. When I say a ball hit like Bradley's I'm talking about specifically just exit velocity and launch angle, which are the only factors that matter in hit probability %. Not whether it's pulled, to center or oppo. The park also is not accounted for. There's literally data that shows such balls, again just exit velocity and launch angle, are only hits 46% of the time. These numbers aren't pulled out of a hat.

    And I agree that it should be taken with a grain of salt, especially on home runs where the part of the park or park itself is not accounted for. There are 10% hit probably balls in Fenway that go for homers because of the monster. That being said, I was just explaining how and why Bradley's homer was only 46% HP.
     
  17. S. H. Frog

    S. H. Frog Member SoSH Member

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    I think you're right. I think his wife is sitting behind him, and it may be his daughter making the 'oh' face.

    I apologize for distributing misinformation, and I would like to point out that, had the tables been turned, I would have made a similar face.
     
  18. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    So, Ryan shows up at games of the two Texas teams he played for, and he was a former boss of one of them. How about Mets and Angels games. Does he go to any of their’s?
     
  19. Adrian's Dome

    Adrian's Dome Member SoSH Member

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    No, the point is that the fact that EV and angle are the only factors involved make it a useless and bullshit stat, something entirely worthless to cite.
     
  20. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    We're from New England---we don't think sports leagues are hip to science.
     
  21. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Does anyone have any idea why the can't include direction in the calculation of hit probability?

    Doesn't necessarily make it a BS stat it just means to use it, one has to be aware of its limitations.

    For example, understanding exit velocity and launch angle could probably help the Os in their construction of a pitching staff, given how hitter friendly Camden Yards is. But OTOH, no one would want to use this staff to try to figure out compare two hitters.
     

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