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AFCCG: Pats at Chiefs Buildup

Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by RedOctober3829, Jan 13, 2019.

  1. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    It'll be interesting. Both the Chargers and the Colts defenses play a lot of zone, so the Patriots and Chiefs offenses both were able to play in the style you mentioned last weekend. But the Chiefs and Patriots defenses play a lot more man-to-man, where you're generally not conceding those six-yard gains like you do in zone. So the dink and dunk game may not be there. The Patriots defense certainly has its flaws, but it had the second-best completion percentage against in the NFL this year.

    When they played earlier in the year, KC had some extended drives, but they ended in field goals (or in one case, a red zone INT). None of their four TD drives were longer than four plays (to be fair, one of those drives was only 3 yards and one only 29).

    EDIT: I don't know why you'd want to play ball control, anyway. Limit the opponent's possessions and you limit your own, too. It's one thing if you're leading, or if you're the underdog, but scoring points is going to be way more important than eating clock.
     
  2. pvg44

    pvg44 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    EDIT: I don't know why you'd want to play ball control, anyway. Limit the opponent's possessions and you limit your own, too. It's one thing if you're leading, or if you're the underdog, but scoring points is going to be way more important than eating clock.

    You make good points, especially when referencing the 1st half of the first game this year. Also when trying to play ball control. I guess all i’m trying to say is that Mahomes grew this year in tempering his reckless throws. Yes, KC needs to score TDs rather than FGs, otherwise it’s another Alex Smith playoff game (let me state for the record that I have nothing but love and respect for Alex Smith; that fking guy put up 30, 38, 20 and 21 (in one half) points in his playoff games. He was neutered by Matt Nagy, but I digress). Mahomes will try to make something happen when he sees the opportunity, but he is less reckless than you (not personal) think.

    Edit: I’m not good at trying to format this through the phone, sorry
     
  3. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    You want to play ball control if their offense is better than yours is. Of course playing ball control without scoring is bad. Playing ball control while putting points on the board is good. But then again, putting points on the board quickly is always good, just not always better than putting points up slowly.

    Put it this way: there's no doubt that if Brady could throw 75-yard touchdown passes on the first play of every possession, he and the Patriots would happily take that. But that's not how the game is going to go, and when you have Mahomes on the other side of the field, it does make sense to take your time, work your way down field, punch it in, and limit Mahomes' chances to score himself.
     
  4. Morgan's Magic Snowplow

    Morgan's Magic Snowplow Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Ultimately, you want to maximize your points scored per drive. That means calling the plays and playing at the tempo in which the offense is going to be most effective. Deviating from that ideal in order to extend drives is a bad idea in general. The exception is perhaps when the other team is much better than you - at that point there might be an incentive to increase variance by reducing drives per team. But the Chiefs aren’t much better than the Patriots.
     
  5. wiffleballhero

    wiffleballhero Member SoSH Member

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    Any chance the Pats try to go hurry-up early (like almost all game)?

    It seems like the Pats have historically been able to sustain hurry-up without running into its obvious weaknesses (players being disorganized and exhausted, not getting the play call straight). Its advantages are obvious also, especially on the road -- keeps the defenders trapped on the field, exhausted, keeps the crowd in an unsustainable state of yelling, eventually petering out.
     
  6. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    Tough to do on the road with the crowd noise.
     
  7. Van Everyman

    Van Everyman Member SoSH Member

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  8. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

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    From what I've read, KC plays man on the outside but zone in the middle/flats which means White/Edelman should still be able to eat.

    Also interesting that Mahomes struggles much more vs. man than zone but Hill is the best WR in the NFL against man. Will be interesting to see how NE matches up against Hill, perhaps JC with a safety over the top? Let's just hope he doesn't get any 1-1 with Jason McCourty.
     
  9. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    KC’s best coverage LB is out. Could be another huge James White game.
     
  10. brandonchristensen

    brandonchristensen mad photochops SoSH Member

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    Looks like they already made sure they don't have to:

    https://sports.theonion.com/patriots-score-2-touchdowns-against-chiefs-in-preemptiv-1831876600

    "KANSAS CITY, MO—In an effort to gain a competitive advantage against a formidable opponent, the New England Patriots scored two touchdowns against the Chiefs Friday in a preemptive strike before Sunday’s AFC Championship Game. “We knew we had to do something to catch them off guard, so we ran a no-huddle offense before they stepped onto the field and were able to get 16 points on the board after those two-point conversions,” said Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, who overcame several dropped passes and a botched snap before finding the end zone twice. “Hopefully it’ll be tough for the Chiefs to overcome this deficit—especially if we win the coin toss and can put another score on the board before they even get a possession. I think it should give our defense the opportunity to pin their ears back and get after the QB. Mahomes tends to get careless with the ball when he’s playing from behind.” At press time, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid had already squandered all of the team’s timeouts before kickoff. "
     
  11. BernieRicoBoomer

    BernieRicoBoomer Member SoSH Member

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    I wasn't finding it all that funny until that last line there.
     
  12. bsj

    bsj Renegade Crazed Genius SoSH Member

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    So just to be clear. 90% of the national media is picking against us, and those same reporters are saying we can't justifiably take on the "disrespect" card? What the fuck are they talking about?
     
  13. bsj

    bsj Renegade Crazed Genius SoSH Member

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    Agreed but I would not be shocked if the first couple series are scripted.
     
  14. johnmd20

    johnmd20 literally like ebola Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    This is ridiculous. Your thought is literally not accurate, because in a football contest the team behind can sometimes win the game, despite being behind. Being on the road does not make this possibility impossible.

    The Pats came back against the Jags. They did it against Seattle. They did it against the Falcons. They did it against the Ravens a few years ago. Twice! Obviously none of these are road games, but the Pats haven't played man road playoff games in recent history. Their ability to come back is something that hasn't disappeared.
     
  15. Red Averages

    Red Averages owes you $50 SoSH Member

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  16. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Why the vitriol? Why is his statement ridiculous — that he does not think (isn’t certain, just does not think) they can come from behind this weekend?

    Where is playoff Amendola? Brandin Cooks?

    I’ll spot you an absent Gronk for the second half, but his belief is far from crazy.
     
  17. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    There is a difference between picking against them and burying them.

    That said, the media suck. Calling Brady out on his statement is childish. Trying to set up Mahomes with “the torch is passed” — which he cleverly put to bed — is equally so.

    But look, these are the very same assholes who tried to bait HC Marrone into a tampering violation with regard to Nick Foles.

    They fucking suck — the vast majority of them. That’s why the two weeks between the Conference Championship Game and the Super Bowl are like hell.
     
  18. loshjott

    loshjott Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Given the composition of the recent SB crowds, you could say the Seattle and Atlanta comebacks approximated road games.
     
  19. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    I think the person arguing that a top 5 NFL offense led by Brady has the burden of proof as to why they can’t comeback in a game.
     
  20. johnmd20

    johnmd20 literally like ebola Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Because it's a stupid hot take, a feeling, and one that doesn't align with the reality. If the Patriots fall behind, it does NOT mean they cannot come back. It's silly on its face and I am under the belief that this board tries to do better than post feelings as facts.
     
  21. IdiotKicker

    IdiotKicker Member SoSH Member

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    Wait til you see playoff Dorsett. It’s real, and it’s spectacular.
     
  22. djbayko

    djbayko Member SoSH Member

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    I don’t know. That last line definitely wins the prize, but I got a laugh out of there being dropped passes and a botched snap with no D.
     
  23. brandonchristensen

    brandonchristensen mad photochops SoSH Member

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    I actually think he will be clutch tomorrow.
     
  24. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    “Contract year playoff Dorsett” is even better.

    He’s been good all year when he’s played. I’ve often wondered why Hogan has taken basically all of his snaps. Brady has often appeared to not even look to him and, when asked about his performance this year, Belichick said “he’s been healthy.”
     
  25. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    You took out a key piece of my post. I said two scores down. I stand by that statement. They are built differently. If they become one dimensional they are likely toast.
     
  26. Mystic Merlin

    Mystic Merlin Member SoSH Member

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    Run blocking, perhaps?
     
  27. staz

    staz Intangible Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Fantastic. Real and fantastic.
     
  28. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    So if they fall behind by 9, you don’t think they can scramble up a TD and a FG?
     
  29. wiffleballhero

    wiffleballhero Member SoSH Member

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    I can't believe it is still 26 hours. It feels like 53.
     
  30. Red Averages

    Red Averages owes you $50 SoSH Member

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    Wait, if a team falls behind by 2 TDs, their odds of winning are greatly diminished? This is news.

    27 hours.
     
  31. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Some of you are being obtuse.

    You fucking well know (a) that KC has more weapons in a shootout and (b) the hill becomes that much higher at that venue if they fall behind significantly.

    But carry on.

    Edit. For the record, I can see a KC blowout, a NE blowout, and everything in between. Almost nothing would surprise me tomorrow.
     
  32. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    I think he was quoting RedSoxJamie.
     
  33. Red Averages

    Red Averages owes you $50 SoSH Member

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    The point everyone is making is that these are obvious statements. You are nervous that if KC gets ahead by 2 TD that they will likely win? That is because their win probability would be over 90% in this made up scenario. And yes, the Patriots have over come these in the playoffs before. They also haven’t on some occasions. Either way everyone can agree it is suboptimal to trail by multiple scores within the same game.

    To my point a few days ago, it is hilarious to see the behavior shift from excitement to fear as we get closer to game time.

    22 hours.
     
  34. IdiotKicker

    IdiotKicker Member SoSH Member

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    No. I was drinking. And still am.

    But Dorsett is going 7-102-1 tomorrow. Book it.
     
  35. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    I felt like past Patriot teams could throw every play and still win. The 2014 team could. The 2016 team could. I don’t think the 2018 Pats can throw 55 times and win like the 2014 team did against Baltimore and Seattle, and the 2016 team did against Atlanta. They are far more run oriented. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, this team is more well balanced. But the flip side is having to throw every play seems like more of an uphill climb than past years. Is that really a controversial take?
     
  36. SemperFidelisSox

    SemperFidelisSox suzyn SoSH Member

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    Brady didn’t attempt more than 45 passes in any game this season.
     
  37. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    No, the point is that one of our posters was labeled “ridiculous” when he said that he “thinks” they cannot overcome a significant deficit.

    That’s the only reason I weighed in.

    One cannot at the same time label his observation ridiculous, then claim it is obvious.
     
  38. Red Averages

    Red Averages owes you $50 SoSH Member

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    Well you jumped onto my quote, which is why I responded. I called it obvious, because it was. You are somehow lumping in ridiculous (someone else) and obvious (me) as both people arguing on the same path. Mine was that it was obvious if they fall behind that presents a large challenge. The other poster was saying it was ridiculous to rule out a comeback and cited a few examples of such. They aren’t the same thing.

    Either way we’ve successfully shown there is too much time in between games. Can’t believe there isn’t a Saturday night game.
     
  39. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    Saying you're nervous about something being difficult =/= saying it can't be done.
     
  40. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Missing my point. It’s not that falling behind presents a large challenge. That is of course, obviously, true. My point was that this particular Patriots team seems less likely to come back from such a situation compared to past teams.
     
  41. cornwalls@6

    cornwalls@6 Member SoSH Member

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    797
  42. pvg44

    pvg44 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Not much more to be said. I think if KC wins it will be because of Sammy Watkins on the offensive side.

    Good luck, all. May the better team win.
     
  43. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    It will only get worse as they get older. To their credit, you don’t hear this nonsense out of the Colts upset by Namath.

    Speaking of losers — after Mahomes pissed on the AFC’s “torch”, the four-letter lit it again and brought it into the other conference.

    http://www.espn.com/blog/new-orlean...s-with-jared-goff-but-not-ready-to-pass-torch
     
  44. Marciano490

    Marciano490 Urological Expert SoSH Member

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    If there’s any QB besides Brady I’d love to root for, it’s Brees.
     
  45. cornwalls@6

    cornwalls@6 Member SoSH Member

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    On balance, yes, I think the Colts took their loss like big boys. But didn’t Bubba Smith long maintain that he thought there was a gambling fix in that game?
     
  46. TomTerrific

    TomTerrific Member SoSH Member

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    Absolutely. Before I converted to the True Faith, I was a Jets fan growing up in the 70's. We heard the Bubba Smith fix story a bazillion times.

    As I recall, his "evidence" was 1. Namath guaranteed victory and Namath had mob contacts, 2. Shula held out Unitas until it was too late, and 3. Tom Matte partied too gleefully after the game for someone on the losing side
     
  47. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    Shit, that dude’s like Matlock. Open and shut, case closed.
     
  48. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    That’s one guy. The 2001 Rams have at least 5 of them, coaches included.

    Society has evolved like our modern game threads. Blame somebody. Blame the League. Blame the game officials. Blame somebody — but don’t acknowledge you put up a c-minus effort or, worse, credit your opponent.
     
  49. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

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    Anyone have stats on Clete Blakemen's OL holding calls vs league average?
    I have a feeling this game could be decided by offensive holding calls. NE should be able to run at will against KC. NE has the 4th best running OL by FO vs. the 31 worst KC DL. Holding calls will more than tip those scales esp if they are as egregiously bad as the 3rd Q hold called against IND last week.
     
  50. wiffleballhero

    wiffleballhero Member SoSH Member

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