AFC Playoff Watch: The Quest for the #1 seed

DeadlySplitter

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it's clear that we're in that "pack" of good but not great teams this year. we have some great wins and some ugly losses, representative of an inconsistent team. KC may be the only elite team in the AFC, but they can be had in the right circumstance.

@PIT will be a measuring stick for our playoff hopes, not just for a bye.

it might just hinge entirely on Gronk's health.
 

j44thor

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I would not want to play the Colts rd 1. They might have the best OL in football and are starting to figure it out on D. That would likely be a team with the ball last wins kind of game.
 

Super Nomario

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I would not want to play the Colts rd 1. They might have the best OL in football and are starting to figure it out on D. That would likely be a team with the ball last wins kind of game.
Yeah, the Colts are hot. I'm not too keen on playing the Chargers either. And keep in mind - whoever is the 5th / 6th seed probably is a team that is going to play well over the next month-plus and is going to look more dangerous at the end of December than they do now.
 

BaseballJones

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I always worry come playoff time. It's football, and the ball bounces weirdly. Anything can happen. Obviously the Patriots at home would be the favorites over almost anyone. But still...we've seen them lose in the playoffs in Foxboro. And this is not an elite Patriots team.

That said, I cannot imagine anyone else would relish the thought of coming into Foxboro to face Brady. I know they may love the idea of knocking Goliath out of the playoffs, but honestly, how can any team really feel comfortable coming to Foxboro and facing Brady?

I think at worst, New England will be a very tough out, especially at home.
 

BigSoxFan

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I always worry come playoff time. It's football, and the ball bounces weirdly. Anything can happen. Obviously the Patriots at home would be the favorites over almost anyone. But still...we've seen them lose in the playoffs in Foxboro. And this is not an elite Patriots team.

That said, I cannot imagine anyone else would relish the thought of coming into Foxboro to face Brady. I know they may love the idea of knocking Goliath out of the playoffs, but honestly, how can any team really feel comfortable coming to Foxboro and facing Brady?

I think at worst, New England will be a very tough out, especially at home.
Baltimore always plays us tough in the playoffs. We’re not quite at the “who would you not want to face” phase of the season but they are #1 for me if we don’t get the 2 seed. Give me Tennessee in a revenge game or Cincy in a heartbeat. We would smoke them. Indy would be tougher than in years past but we’d still beat them semi-comfortably. Chargers would be a legit scary matchup if we fell to the 4 seed.
 

wilked

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So the teams to avoid are the Chiefs/Steelers/Colts/Chargers/MaybeTitans?

Bring on the Texans!
 

DJnVa

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So the teams to avoid are the Chiefs/Steelers/Colts/Chargers/MaybeTitans?

Bring on the Texans!
It's like a Christmas tradition. Every season these threads fill with 6 AFC teams that we want to avoid. You know, including us, that's more than the number of teams that make the playoffs.
 

NortheasternPJ

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It's like a Christmas tradition. Every season these threads fill with 6 AFC teams that we want to avoid. You know, including us, that's more than the number of teams that make the playoffs.
Then the Pats some how get to 2 seed and a bye, then they play a 4 seed who's actually worse than the 5th seed.The 5th seed then knocks off KC and they host a game where a 3rd string Pats RB has 3,000 yards and 5 TD's.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Then the Pats some how get to 2 seed and a bye, then they play a 4 seed who's actually worse than the 5th seed.The 5th seed then knocks off KC and they host a game where a 3rd string Pats RB has 3,000 yards and 5 TD's.
and then the Rams or Saints kill us in the SB!
 

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory
1. KC 9-2(Bye)
2. Pittsburgh 7-2-1(at Denver)
3. New England 7-3(at Jets)
4. Houston 7-3(vs. Tennessee)
5. LA Chargers 7-3(vs. AZ)
6. Baltimore 5-5(vs. Oakland)
7. Cincinnati 5-5(vs. Cleveland)
8. Miami 5-5(at Indy)
9. Indianapolis 5-5(vs. Miami)
10. Tennessee 5-5(at Houston)
11. Denver 4-6(vs. Pittsburgh)

Pats 1 game back in the loss column for the 1 seed. KC still has to play the Chargers and the Seahawks.
 
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Papelbon's Poutine

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1. KC 9-2(Bye)
2. Pittsburgh 7-2-1(at Denver)
3. New England 7-3(at Jets)
4. Houston 7-3(vs. Tennessee)
5. LA Chargers 7-3(vs. AZ)
6. Baltimore 5-5(vs. Oakland)
7. Cincinnati 5-5(vs. Cleveland)
8. Miami 5-5(at Indy)
9. Indianapolis 5-5(vs. Miami)
10. Tennessee 5-5(at Houston)
11. Denver 4-6(vs. Pittsburgh)

Pats 1 game back in the loss column for the 1 seed. KC still has to play the Chargers and the Seahawks.
That GD Titans game is gonna bite us in the ass.
 

j44thor

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I feel this year is Gronk or bust. Offense isn't dynamic enough without a healthy Gronk to keep up with the elite offenses. If sitting Gronk and settling for the 3rd-4th seed means he is 2017 Gronk come playoff time or playing him at 75% rest of way and getting a shot at 1-2nd seed I say rest him.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Lions game too. It's baffling why this team at times looks completely unprepared on both sindes of the ball on the road. Losing to the Lions and Titans while beating a very good Bears team on the road without Gronkowski.
Yes, but I don't take much out of the first few games of the year as I think BB views them as basically the preseason, since they don't play many regulars during the actual preseason, very much anyway. It doesn't shock me when they lose a game like the Lions one, but I kind of expect them to drop an easy one early. On the ledger yeah, it hurts, but coming off a six game winning streak and heading into a bye...come on boys.

When you lose by multiple TDs it is hard to say that. They didn't come close to winning that game, or the Jacksonville game, or the Detroit game. It is what it is.
It's hard to say losing to a team you shouldn't have might play a part in losing a bye and/or home field advantage? I'm not saying it was a tough loss, I'm saying it's game they shouldn't have lost for any reason; they played like shit in all three phases, coached like shit and looked like shit against a far inferior opponent and if they'd played even mediocre they'd likely be in the catbird seat right now.
 

Gunfighter 09

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That Denver loss is really going to fuck the Chargers. They are effectively 2 games back of the Chiefs now with the extra division loss.
 

dcmissle

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Lions game too. It's baffling why this team at times looks completely unprepared on both sides of the ball on the road. Losing to the Lions and Titans while beating a very good Bears team on the road without Gronkowski.
If you fold in @Jax, the three road games were lost by a cumulative score of 91-40.

One game at a time mode. They need to play well on the road to close reg season to generate any realistic hope for playoff success.
 

tims4wins

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It's hard to say losing to a team you shouldn't have might play a part in losing a bye and/or home field advantage? I'm not saying it was a tough loss, I'm saying it's game they shouldn't have lost for any reason; they played like shit in all three phases, coached like shit and looked like shit against a far inferior opponent and if they'd played even mediocre they'd likely be in the catbird seat right now.
Semantics I guess. You say they shouldn't have lost for any reason, but they weren't even competitive. They shouldn't have won for any reason IMO.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Semantics I guess. You say they shouldn't have lost for any reason, but they weren't even competitive. They shouldn't have won for any reason IMO.
I'm not arguing that, they played like shit. On paper heading in they should have won, but yeah, they didn't show up. My point was I don't think it's hard to say that if we miss out on a bye or HFA, it's not hard to look back at that game and facepalm.
 

BaseballJones

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The Pats have gone 3-0 against division leaders (Hou, KC, Chi), the most wins of any other team in the league against division leaders. They've gone 3-1 against playoff contenders (win vs Mia, Ind, GB, loss to Ten). But they're just 1-2 against crap teams (win vs Buf, losses to Det and Jax).

Weird.
 

tims4wins

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I'm not arguing that, they played like shit. On paper heading in they should have won, but yeah, they didn't show up. My point was I don't think it's hard to say that if we miss out on a bye or HFA, it's not hard to look back at that game and facepalm.
Maybe. If the Pats miss out on a bye it will be because they lose to the Steelers. If they beat the Steelers they will get a bye. I don't think the Tennessee game is going to affect that either way.

Now if they go 13-3 and miss out on the 1 seed to the 14-2 Chiefs, I might agree with you. But honestly I'm not sure I would want them heading into the playoffs on a 13 game win streak anyway.
 

InstaFace

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I always worry come playoff time. It's football, and the ball bounces weirdly. Anything can happen. Obviously the Patriots at home would be the favorites over almost anyone. But still...we've seen them lose in the playoffs in Foxboro. And this is not an elite Patriots team.

That said, I cannot imagine anyone else would relish the thought of coming into Foxboro to face Brady. I know they may love the idea of knocking Goliath out of the playoffs, but honestly, how can any team really feel comfortable coming to Foxboro and facing Brady?

I think at worst, New England will be a very tough out, especially at home.
Tom Brady is 19-3 at home in the playoffs, and you can doubtless name the losses. 2009 v BAL when the team wasn't very good, 2010 v NYJ when the team was fucking awesome and WTF just happened, and 2012 v BAL against a peer team that got QB pressure with 4 rushers. He's also 3-4 on the road in the playoffs, with all the losses but the 2006 AFCCG coming at Denver, and of course 5-3 in the super bowl. But as he'd say himself, those were all very different teams those years and it's hard if not impossible to gain any valuable lessons from it.

As a general statement, if he has to play on the road in the playoffs, it's because he's facing a superior team, or at least a peer team who now has the comforts of home. If we fail to get a bye, I like our chances of winning our home game, but would have a hard time seeing a win in KC or elsewhere in the divisional round.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Maybe. If the Pats miss out on a bye it will be because they lose to the Steelers. If they beat the Steelers they will get a bye. I don't think the Tennessee game is going to affect that either way.

Now if they go 13-3 and miss out on the 1 seed to the 14-2 Chiefs, I might agree with you. But honestly I'm not sure I would want them heading into the playoffs on a 13 game win streak anyway.
Well, point being, they could have lost to Steelers and still gotten a bye had they not pissed that game away. So of course the Tennessee game matters. They all do. And I don’t expect them to finish 6-0.

Why is finishing on a long win streak bad, by the way?
 

tims4wins

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Well, point being, they could have lost to Steelers and still gotten a bye had they not pissed that game away. So of course the Tennessee game matters. They all do. And I don’t expect them to finish 6-0.

Why is finishing on a long win streak bad, by the way?
Not if the Steelers win out. Of course, they may not either. Whatever. I won't be looking back at a game the Pats lost by 20+ and lamenting it. YMMV.

Finishing on a long win streak hasn't gone particularly well, at least when I think about 2007, 2010, and 2011.
 

dcmissle

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Maybe. If the Pats miss out on a bye it will be because they lose to the Steelers. If they beat the Steelers they will get a bye. I don't think the Tennessee game is going to affect that either way.

Now if they go 13-3 and miss out on the 1 seed to the 14-2 Chiefs, I might agree with you. But honestly I'm not sure I would want them heading into the playoffs on a 13 game win streak anyway.
It would have affected it had they won at Tenn, lost @Pitts then won out — assuming a Pitts loss at NO. The latter parts of this equation may not be more likely than not, but they are pretty realistic.

The runup to @ Tenn, I thought — be careful, trap game. Then quickly — “no ... they crush situations like this ... they know exactly what’s on the table ... get it done, then the bye.”

Maybe not so much a trap as getting your ass kicked with eyes wide open.
 

BaseballJones

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SI power rankings asks this question: Which remarkable streak is more in jeopardy: eight straight years with at least 12 wins, or eight straight years with a first round bye?

Interesting question. I say the Pats go 5-1 down the stretch. Not sure where the loss will be. Maybe a shocker to the Jets. Maybe vs Minnesota. Maybe in Miami. Maybe at Pittsburgh. No idea. But I still think they finish 12-4 despite all our concerns. But will 12-4 be enough to get a first round bye? I think that all depends on where that one loss is. They go 5-0 vs the rest but lose to Pittsburgh, there's a good chance that the Pats are the #3 seed. They go 4-1 vs the rest but beat Pittsburgh, I think they're the #2 seed.
 

PayrodsFirstClutchHit

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Not if the Steelers win out. Of course, they may not either. Whatever. I won't be looking back at a game the Pats lost by 20+ and lamenting it. YMMV.

Finishing on a long win streak hasn't gone particularly well, at least when I think about 2007, 2010, and 2011.
So ending the season with a couple of losses like 2015 is preferred?

I was never fond of the "They needed to lose one in 2007" argument as to why they lost the SB. Playing well going into the playoffs (See Giants 2007 and Ravens 2012) is more a predictor than the "Did you lose sometime in December" theory.
 

Super Nomario

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So ending the season with a couple of losses like 2015 is preferred?

I was never fond of the "They needed to lose one in 2007" argument as to why they lost the SB.
Agreed, but

Playing well going into the playoffs (See Giants 2007 and Ravens 2012) is more a predictor than the "Did you lose sometime in December" theory.
... these are terrible examples. The 2007 Giants started 6-2 and went 4-4 down the stretch. The 2012 Ravens started 9-2 and lost four of their last five.
 

tims4wins

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So ending the season with a couple of losses like 2015 is preferred?

I was never fond of the "They needed to lose one in 2007" argument as to why they lost the SB. Playing well going into the playoffs (See Giants 2007 and Ravens 2012) is more a predictor than the "Did you lose sometime in December" theory.
2015 is also a horrible example. They went 2-4 down the stretch. 4-2 would have been perfectly fine. IIRC 3-3 would have even gotten them the 1 seed.
 

brandonchristensen

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2015 is also a horrible example. They went 2-4 down the stretch. 4-2 would have been perfectly fine. IIRC 3-3 would have even gotten them the 1 seed.
Wasn’t that the dolphins game? An easy win and they came out in the most vanilla offense ever?
 

j44thor

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Surprised this hasn't been bumped yet thanks to DEN doing us a huge favor.
Pats in the drivers seat for the #2 seed now and well positioned for the top seed if KC falls to either SD or @ SEA.
Game @ PIT will be big but NE can afford to lose it assuming PIT doesn't beat NO in NO

12/23 could bring early Christmas presents for NE fans if both KC loses @ SEA and PIT loses @ NO. Both certainly well within the realm of possibility.
 

dcmissle

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Surprised this hasn't been bumped yet thanks to DEN doing us a huge favor.
Pats in the drivers seat for the #2 seed now and well positioned for the top seed if KC falls to either SD or @ SEA.
Game @ PIT will be big but NE can afford to lose it assuming PIT doesn't beat NO in NO

12/23 could bring early Christmas presents for NE fans if both KC loses @ SEA and PIT loses @ NO. Both certainly well within the realm of possibility.
Like me, you may have forgotten Houston.
 

DJnVa

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And any given Sunday and stuff, but if we have to play in Houston in the AFCCG, well, let's just say that's not quite like going to KC or Pittsburgh.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Surprised this hasn't been bumped yet thanks to DEN doing us a huge favor.
Pats in the drivers seat for the #2 seed now and well positioned for the top seed if KC falls to either SD or @ SEA.
Game @ PIT will be big but NE can afford to lose it assuming PIT doesn't beat NO in NO

12/23 could bring early Christmas presents for NE fans if both KC loses @ SEA and PIT loses @ NO. Both certainly well within the realm of possibility.
PITT v. Chargers next week is no gimme either.