AFC Divisional Game: SD (#6) at Denver (#1)

[SeoulSoxFan]

Sunday at 4:40pm is the 2nd Divisional game when the Chargers visit Denver. The previous 2 games were:

• 11/10: Broncos win on the road 28-20
• 12/12: Chargers pay back, beating Broncos in Denver 27-20

If Chargers continue to hold on to the ball (Matthews injury key here), another upset may be happening at Mile High.
 
Prediction: Woodhead plays embedded Patriot and shocks Peyton: 38-37

 

[Dan to Theo to Ben]

Broncos win if Manning keeps the ball away from Welker.

 

[mpx42]

I love the "6 seeds are 6-2 against 1 seeds since 2005" stat. Meaningless, but sure highlights the crazy unpredictability of the NFL.

 

[Stitch01]

SD has very little margin for error and needs to play a bit more aggressively than they did today, but Rivers gives SD a chance. SD was competitive in both games and moved the ball pretty well.

Mathews health looms large.

 

[PayrodsFirstClutchHit]

SD is playing with house money right now.  No pressure at all on them.  They have won on the road against Denver, home against KC and on the road against Cin over the past month.  All of those games were must win to keep their playoff hopes alive or advance.
 
All the pressure is squarely on Manning and the Broncos here and we know how that has played out in the past.
 
I can see a very reasonable scenario where SD wins this game and we are treated to the glory that is Manning face.

 

[dynomite]

It's felt for a while like a Broncos-Patriots AFC Championship was in store, and I don't think the Chargers will be the ones to upset the apple cart if it doesn't happen.
 
I doubt the Chargers will win, but could definitely see a wild game with the Broncos winning 41-38 in OT or something.
 
Then again I went 1-3 this weekend.  So... uh... the Broncos will definitely win!  I pick them!

 

[Kliq]

I said that people should watch out for San Diego, and it looks like I was right through round 1. San Diego has a good offense, takes care of the ball, and their defense has been incredible down the stretch. After giving up 38 to KC in week 12, they have  allowed only 16.3 ppg since. This game has a lot of things leaning towards a Denver defeat, something along the lines of Competent QB+Ball Security+Good Defense+Manning in Playoffs/Cold.

 

[Tony C]

Forecast is for 50 degree weather, so shouldn't be a factor.
 
I have really been liking SD all season and think they are the worst of the possible matchups for the Broncs. But still think Denver pulls it out -- too much firepower.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

I said that people should watch out for San Diego, and it looks like I was right through round 1. San Diego has a good offense, takes care of the ball, and their defense has been incredible down the stretch. After giving up 38 to KC in week 12, they have  allowed only 16.3 ppg since. This game has a lot of things leaning towards a Denver defeat, something along the lines of Competent QB+Ball Security+Good Defense+Manning in Playoffs/Cold.

 
The Denver game was a nice win, but let's not pretend that SD's defense has been "incredible" since losing to KC. They won the Bronco's game because the offense out-possessed the Denver offense almost 2:1 (40 min to 20 min). That's not to say that the defense didn't play well, because they did. But it wasn't an otherworldly effort or anything. 
 
They also allowed 14 points to the Giants (28th ranked offense), and 13 points to the Raiders (24th ranked offense), both of those games at home. They allowed 24 points to the Chiefs second string offense (at home again), and 17 points to a Bengals offense that sucked on the road all year (19 points a game on the road). So, aside the Broncos game, they played all 4 other games at home and didn't play any offense that could really be considered good.
 
For what it's worth, I also picked San Diego against the Bengals, but if the Chargers are going to have any shot to win this game, they're going to have to pull the same trick twice. They're going to have to ride their running game against a shitty run defense, and do their best to keep the Broncos off the field. I don't expect the Chargers to walk into Mile High and ground out 44 carries and 180 yards for a second time in a month, especially since they're an average rushing team at best.
 
It was a nice little run for the Chargers, but I don't see this game being all that close.

 

[tims4wins]

 
The Denver game was a nice win, but let's not pretend that SD's defense has been "incredible" since losing to KC. They won the Bronco's game because the offense out-possessed the Denver offense almost 2:1 (40 min to 20 min). That's not to say that the defense didn't play well, because they did. But it wasn't an otherworldly effort or anything. 
 
They also allowed 14 points to the Giants (28th ranked offense), and 13 points to the Raiders (24th ranked offense), both of those games at home. They allowed 24 points to the Chiefs second string offense (at home again), and 17 points to a Bengals offense that sucked on the road all year (19 points a game on the road). So, aside the Broncos game, they played all 4 other games at home and didn't play any offense that could really be considered good.
 
For what it's worth, I also picked San Diego against the Bengals, but if the Chargers are going to have any shot to win this game, they're going to have to pull the same trick twice. They're going to have to ride their running game against a shitty run defense, and do their best to keep the Broncos off the field. I don't expect the Chargers to walk into Mile High and ground out 44 carries and 180 yards for a second time in a month, especially since they're an average rushing team at best.
 
It was a nice little run for the Chargers, but I don't see this game being all that close.

 
In that Denver game, I believe they forced the Denver offense into 4 straight 3 and outs. I will look it up now. But I'd consider that to be fairly other worldly based on what Denver's offense has done this year.
 
Edit: it was 3 straight 3 and outs, followed by a 4 and out (first down on the first play, then 3 plays and a punt). That is why SD had such a huge TOP advantage.

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

Matthews was taken out of the game with an ankle sprain, an injury he's been battling for the last few weeks. He's hoping to play. 
 

 
Ryan Mathews (ankle) said his "mindset is I'm playing" in Sunday's Divisional Round game at Denver.
The ankle sprain Mathews has been battling for the last few weeks was bad enough that he sat out the majority of the second half at Cincy Sunday. So making declarations about his status for next week would obviously be premature. When the Chargers knocked off the Broncos in Week 15, Mathews dropped a 29/127/1 line.

 

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

 
In that Denver game, I believe they forced the Denver offense into 4 straight 3 and outs. I will look it up now. But I'd consider that to be fairly other worldly based on what Denver's offense has done this year.
 
Edit: it was 3 straight 3 and outs, followed by a 4 and out (first down on the first play, then 3 plays and a punt). That is why SD had such a huge TOP advantage.

 
That's the only reason why? not the fact that they ran the ball 44 times and only threw it 20? By the way, River's has only thrown it less than 20 times twice in the past 6 years. One of the other times was yesterday against Cinci. i think SD is going to try like hell to run the ball as much as possible next week.

 

[86spike]

 
The Denver game was a nice win, but let's not pretend that SD's defense has been "incredible" since losing to KC. They won the Bronco's game because the offense out-possessed the Denver offense almost 2:1 (40 min to 20 min). That's not to say that the defense didn't play well, because they did. But it wasn't an otherworldly effort or anything. 
 
They also allowed 14 points to the Giants (28th ranked offense), and 13 points to the Raiders (24th ranked offense), both of those games at home. They allowed 24 points to the Chiefs second string offense (at home again), and 17 points to a Bengals offense that sucked on the road all year (19 points a game on the road). So, aside the Broncos game, they played all 4 other games at home and didn't play any offense that could really be considered good.
 
For what it's worth, I also picked San Diego against the Bengals, but if the Chargers are going to have any shot to win this game, they're going to have to pull the same trick twice. They're going to have to ride their running game against a shitty run defense, and do their best to keep the Broncos off the field. I don't expect the Chargers to walk into Mile High and ground out 44 carries and 180 yards for a second time in a month, especially since they're an average rushing team at best.
 
It was a nice little run for the Chargers, but I don't see this game being all that close.

BTW KfP - SD played in Cinci yesterday, not at home.
 
As for the bolded, The SD win over Denver in Week 15 was in no small part due to Denver shooting themselves in the foot with penalties that allowed SD to keep the ball and dominate TOP.  They had 3 12-man on the field flags and an absolutely killer offsides penalty on a punt where they had SD pinned in their own endzone on 4th down and short.  The flag resulted in a first down and SD went on to 7 more minutes of offense.  Denver struggled with SD's run (the loss of Kevin Vickerson in Wk 12 took a massive toll on Denver's run D in addition to the absence of Derek Wolfe) but have had some time to get healthier (Wolfe should play this wk) and have back-ups work into better form.
 
It was basically a perfect storm of bad play (the penalties, the inability to stop the run) and an uncharacteristic stretch of shit play on offense (see below) that led to Denver's loss.
 
 

 
In that Denver game, I believe they forced the Denver offense into 4 straight 3 and outs. I will look it up now. But I'd consider that to be fairly other worldly based on what Denver's offense has done this year.

It was 3 straight 3-and-outs to start the second half.  It was also the first full game Denver played without Welker and they seemingly missed him in that stretch and hadn't figured out how to reproduce his production quite yet.  Baring a practice injury, Welker will play this week.  I expect the offense will be clicking.
 
I don't take SD lightly at all and they are the last team I wanted to face out of the first 4 options.  That said, while Wk 15 is certainly pertinent, I don't think this weekend will play out that way.  If the Broncos don't piss their pants with dumb penalties or turn over the ball... I expect they will get their usual 25-30 points and possibly more than that.  They are going to have to play a bend-don't break defense with Von Miller out (pass rush will be paltry), but Champ Bailey will be back and playing nickel which should help that.  They are going to need Wolfe and rookie DT Sly Williams to help boost the run D since SD is going to try to run run run (Matthews' ankle is certainly key).
 
I think this is Denver's game and they just need to play cleanly and execute to win.

 

[tims4wins]

 
That's the only reason why? not the fact that they ran the ball 44 times and only threw it 20? By the way, River's has only thrown it less than 20 times twice in the past 6 years. One of the other times was yesterday against Cinci. i think SD is going to try like hell to run the ball as much as possible next week.

 
Obviously that wasn't the only reason why - the SD offense was able to take advantage of those 4 straight defensive stops and hold the ball for a long period of time. I just meant the D had a HUGE part of that win.
 
Edit: and I 100% agree they will run as much as possible

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

BTW KfP - SD played in Cinci yesterday, not at home.

 
They played Cin at home in week 13.

 

[86spike]

 
They played Cin at home in week 13.

 gotcha - thought you were talking about yesterday

 

[RoyHobbs]

If ever there was an ideal opponent to meet head on the DEN juggernaut, it would be SD, which essentially led in TOP in 2013 (32:47, a mere one second behind NOLA). The problem with DEN is, even in limited time it can seemingly score at will. Any good Xs and Os folks have any ideas what the Chargers do during the 26-30* minutes Manning is in control?
 
*or, as ivanvamp points out below, the ~21:00 that the previous 2 matchups saw

 

[ivanvamp]

Quick analysis of the two SD-Denver matchups during the regular season, for whatever that's worth.
 
Game 1:  Den 28, SD 20 (in SD)
Denver won largely due to a great game by Manning:  25-36 (69.4%), 330 yds, 4 td, 0 int.  SD won the T.O.P. battle (38:03 to 21:57) and the turnover battle (1-0), but simply could not stop Manning.  The game was 28-6 Denver before SD scored two TDs in the 2nd half to narrow the margin.  SD cut the lead to 28-20 with 10:42 left in the game, and at that point, things were pretty interesting.  Plenty of time for SD to come back, since they had scored 14 straight points and had momentum.  Denver was actually forced to punt at that point, giving SD the ball back with 6:43 to go, down a score (and 2-point conversion).  They actually got a first down at their own 45, moving the ball well, but then this three-play sequence did them in:  Rivers fumbled (and recovered) at their 41, loss of 4.  Rivers sacked by Miler, loss of 2.  Then Rivers threw incomplete deep to Royal.  SD had to punt.  Denver then ran out the clock using a few key Manning passes to keep the chains moving.  
 
Game 2:  SD 27, Den 20 (in Den)
SD won largely due to a huge disparity in rushing, as they out gained Denver 177-18 on the ground.  Matthews was terrific, and Denver couldn't do anything in that department.  Manning was pretty solid again (27-41, 289, 2 td, 1 int), and Rivers didn't have to do much (12-20, 166, 2 td, 0 int).  SD once again won the T.O.P. battle (38:49 to 21:11), and also won the turnover battle (1-0).  This time they managed to make the plays when they needed to make them.  They got up 24-10 and held on for the win.  
 
If the first two games gave us anything to go by, SD will run the ball effectively against Denver, and will dominate time of possession.  I don't see that changing, unless Matthews can't go.  And even then, I think they can probably do a lot of damage on the ground.  That'll be their game plan, and I think they'll do a good job executing it.  They've held Denver to 48 points (24.0 per game) and 692 yards (346.0 per game), well below their season averages of 37.9 points and 457.3 yards.  
 
I think SD can keep this a close game, and from there, it's really a matter of who makes the key play.  Denver is rightfully the favorite, but SD very much has a real shot at this.

 

[86spike]

Quick analysis of the two SD-Denver matchups during the regular season, for whatever that's worth.
 
Game 1:  Den 28, SD 20 (in SD)
Denver won largely due to a great game by Manning:  25-36 (69.4%), 330 yds, 4 td, 0 int.  SD won the T.O.P. battle (38:03 to 21:57) and the turnover battle (1-0), but simply could not stop Manning.  The game was 28-6 Denver before SD scored two TDs in the 2nd half to narrow the margin.  SD cut the lead to 28-20 with 10:42 left in the game, and at that point, things were pretty interesting.  Plenty of time for SD to come back, since they had scored 14 straight points and had momentum.  Denver was actually forced to punt at that point, giving SD the ball back with 6:43 to go, down a score (and 2-point conversion).  They actually got a first down at their own 45, moving the ball well, but then this three-play sequence did them in:  Rivers fumbled (and recovered) at their 41, loss of 4.  Rivers sacked by Miler, loss of 2.  Then Rivers threw incomplete deep to Royal.  SD had to punt.  Denver then ran out the clock using a few key Manning passes to keep the chains moving.  
 
Game 2:  SD 27, Den 20 (in Den)
SD won largely due to a huge disparity in rushing, as they out gained Denver 177-18 on the ground.  Matthews was terrific, and Denver couldn't do anything in that department.  Manning was pretty solid again (27-41, 289, 2 td, 1 int), and Rivers didn't have to do much (12-20, 166, 2 td, 0 int).  SD once again won the T.O.P. battle (38:49 to 21:11), and also won the turnover battle (1-0).  This time they managed to make the plays when they needed to make them.  They got up 24-10 and held on for the win.  
 
If the first two games gave us anything to go by, SD will run the ball effectively against Denver, and will dominate time of possession.  I don't see that changing, unless Matthews can't go.  And even then, I think they can probably do a lot of damage on the ground.  That'll be their game plan, and I think they'll do a good job executing it.  They've held Denver to 48 points (24.0 per game) and 692 yards (346.0 per game), well below their season averages of 37.9 points and 457.3 yards.  
 
I think SD can keep this a close game, and from there, it's really a matter of who makes the key play.  Denver is rightfully the favorite, but SD very much has a real shot at this.

 
Game 2 also featured Denver making several back-breaking penalties on D and ST (see my notes above) which were absolutely key in keep SD's offense on the field.  That is something worth noting in all analysis of the game.  Denver needs to avoid those this time.

 

[86spike]

BTW, the Broncos will likely be in a very good spot if they can come out fast and put up a few TDs early to build a lead.  Anything they can do to force SD out of it's ball-control comfort zone will be helpful.

 

[tims4wins]

BTW, the Broncos will likely be in a very good spot if they can come out fast and put up a few TDs early to build a lead.  Anything they can do to force SD out of it's ball-control comfort zone will be helpful.

 
This is spot on IMO. I don't think the Chargers can play from behind if they fall behind by 2 scores. If it's 10-0 or 14-0 Denver early, watch out.
 
I normally advocate taking the ball in the 2nd half, but if I'm either team I strongly consider taking the ball to start the game.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

 
Game 2 also featured Denver making several back-breaking penalties on D and ST (see my notes above) which were absolutely key in keep SD's offense on the field.  That is something worth noting in all analysis of the game.  Denver needs to avoid those this time.

 
Broncos are one of the most penalized teams in the NFL (62.5 yards per game, ranked 28th). I'm sure a lot of that comes from being in shootouts, which is going to lead to more pass interference penalties, but you can't just dismiss their issues with penalties. It's part of who the team is.
 
Edit: As a reference, Patriots are 3rd at 39.1 YPG.

 

[86spike]

 
Broncos are one of the most penalized teams in the NFL (62.5 yards per game, ranked 28th). I'm sure a lot of that comes from being in shootouts, which is going to lead to more pass interference penalties, but you can't just dismiss their issues with penalties. It's part of who the team is.
 
Edit: As a reference, Patriots are 3rd at 39.1 YPG.

 
No I definitely don't mean to dismiss losses because of penalties.  They have been very undisciplined in that regard with many really dumb and boneheaded things hurting the team.  I put a lot of the blame for that on the coaching.  
 
I'm hoping for them to pull their heads out of their asses a bit now that it's win or go home.  Hoping for it, but not fully expecting it.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Mike Klis ‏@MikeKlis 11m
DL Derek Wolfe did NOT practice today, as hoped.
 

 

Mike Klis ‏@MikeKlis 11m
DL Shaun Phillips not practicing.
 

Mike Klis ‏@MikeKlis 11m
And one again, FS Rahim Moore not practicing.
 

 

 

[Kliq]

Denver has a great offense, there is no way you can ignore that. But Peyton Manning's teams have always had good/great offenses, but that hasn't stopped him from having a truly impressive array of early playoff exits. I know that this offense is statistically better than any other offense he has been apart of, but I'm really anxious to see how well his team produces this week.
 
In 2005, Manning had the 2nd best offense in the league. They then promptly went out, scored 18 points at home against Pittsburgh, and lost in the divisonal round.
In 2007, same thing. 3rd best offense, then scored 24 at home and lost in the divisional round to SD.
In 2010, they had the 4th best offense, then scored 16 points at home to the 6th seeded Jets and lost in the wild card.
 
All that is in play Sunday. Now, Manning led offenses have also blown the doors off some other playoff teams, so it is likely that they could also score 40 and win handily. But the way San Diego is playing right now, I think I might give them a slight edge over Denver.

 

[86spike]

 
 


 


 

 
Shaun Phillips is apparently sick and sent home with a fever.  That's a drag, but I would expect him to shake it by Sunday.  Denver absolutely needs him for the pass rush with Von out.
 
Wolfe's continued absence is disappointing, but I guess I no longer expect him to play at all this year.  Mysterious shit, but he had seizures on the bus to the airport... not something to take lightly.
 
Moore is eligible to return to the team if they make the AFCCG, but apparently he has had a few setbacks, so I don't expect it.  He has been replaced by the return of Bailey anyway.
 

Denver has a great offense, there is no way you can ignore that. But Peyton Manning's teams have always had good/great offenses, but that hasn't stopped him from having a truly impressive array of early playoff exits. I know that this offense is statistically better than any other offense he has been apart of, but I'm really anxious to see how well his team produces this week.
 
In 2005, Manning had the 2nd best offense in the league. They then promptly went out, scored 18 points at home against Pittsburgh, and lost in the divisonal round.
In 2007, same thing. 3rd best offense, then scored 24 at home and lost in the divisional round to SD.
In 2010, they had the 4th best offense, then scored 16 points at home to the 6th seeded Jets and lost in the wild card.
 
All that is in play Sunday. Now, Manning led offenses have also blown the doors off some other playoff teams, so it is likely that they could also score 40 and win handily. But the way San Diego is playing right now, I think I might give them a slight edge over Denver.

 
I don't say this to be dismissive of SD's chances this week, but "the way they've been playing" includes almost losing to KC's entire 2nd string (and needing OT to win) just 8 days ago and a win against of putrid Raiders team a week before that.  You could also look at yesterday's playoff win as them taking what hapless Andy Dalton gave them and capitalizing on it as opposed to blowing the Bengals away.
 
Again, not to knock SD, but their recent games show some inconsistencies amongst the string of wins.

 

[Kliq]

 
Shaun Phillips is apparently sick and sent home with a fever.  That's a drag, but I would expect him to shake it by Sunday.  Denver absolutely needs him for the pass rush with Von out.
 
Wolfe's continued absence is disappointing, but I guess I no longer expect him to play at all this year.  Mysterious shit, but he had seizures on the bus to the airport... not something to take lightly.
 
Moore is eligible to return to the team if they make the AFCCG, but apparently he has had a few setbacks, so I don't expect it.  He has been replaced by the return of Bailey anyway.
 
 
I don't say this to be dismissive of SD's chances this week, but "the way they've been playing" includes almost losing to KC's entire 2nd string (and needing OT to win) just 8 days ago and a win against of putrid Raiders team a week before that.  You could also look at yesterday's playoff win as them taking what hapless Andy Dalton gave them and capitalizing on it as opposed to blowing the Bengals away.
 
Again, not to knock SD, but their recent games show some inconsistencies amongst the string of wins.

 
IDK why people are being somewhat dismissive of their win yesterday. They beat what many people felt like was a good team, on the road, in the playoffs. Was part of that reason because Andy Dalton was subpar? Of course, but part of the reason why Dalton sucked was because San Diego was very effective on defense. They played extremely well in the second half, with a great pass rush that didn't give Dalton a chance to make a play. A perfect example would be Dalton's INT to Wright with 2 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. San Diego had played the first plays of the drive conservativly, then on 3rd and 8 brought an overload blitz play on the right side, which forced Dalton to throw a contested ball that Wright picked off and basically doomed Cincy. It was a great call and even better execution.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

 
IDK why people are being somewhat dismissive of their win yesterday. They beat what many people felt like was a good team, on the road, in the playoffs. Was part of that reason because Andy Dalton was subpar? Of course, but part of the reason why Dalton sucked was because San Diego was very effective on defense. They played extremely well in the second half, with a great pass rush that didn't give Dalton a chance to make a play. A perfect example would be Dalton's INT to Wright with 2 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. San Diego had played the first plays of the drive conservativly, then on 3rd and 8 brought an overload blitz play on the right side, which forced Dalton to throw a contested ball that Wright picked off and basically doomed Cincy. It was a great call and even better execution.

 
My bigger problem with that game was that the Chargers couldn't put the Bengals away until way late in the game.
 
With a 14-10 lead in the 3rd quarter, they scooped up an Andy Dalton fumble on the Bengals side of the field, and only mustered a field goal. On the next possession, the Chargers picked off a terrible throw by Dalton and brought it all the way back to the 3 yard line. The Chargers had to settle for another FG from the freaking 3 yard line. The next possession ended with a Dalton pick and the ball in Cincy territory, and the Chargers had to punt.
 
So, with a 14-10 lead in the third quarter of a playoff game, they get three straight turnovers on Cincy's half of the field (once at the 3) and could only muster 6 points out of it. If you're going to beat the Bronco's, you better capitalize on those turnovers.

 

[86spike]

 
IDK why people are being somewhat dismissive of their win yesterday. They beat what many people felt like was a good team, on the road, in the playoffs. Was part of that reason because Andy Dalton was subpar? Of course, but part of the reason why Dalton sucked was because San Diego was very effective on defense. They played extremely well in the second half, with a great pass rush that didn't give Dalton a chance to make a play. A perfect example would be Dalton's INT to Wright with 2 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. San Diego had played the first plays of the drive conservativly, then on 3rd and 8 brought an overload blitz play on the right side, which forced Dalton to throw a contested ball that Wright picked off and basically doomed Cincy. It was a great call and even better execution.

 
I guess I put more blame on Dalton for the 2 INTs than you do.  That first one should have been thrown out of bounds instead of into double coverage while scrambling.  The second one was just an awful job of IDing the defender on a first down.  Manning will throw a pick here and there (and may very well do so this weekend), but they rarely look like those.
 
Also, SD's defense didn't have anything to do with Dalton's horrible rush, dive, fumble that gave SD the ball 46 yards from the endzone.
 
Again, I don't mean to come off as dismissive of SD's win, but I'm also not really buying the "SD is the hottest team in the game right now" narrative I'm seeing in some places.

 

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

So, with a 14-10 lead in the third quarter of a playoff game, they get three straight turnovers on Cincy's half of the field (once at the 3) and could only muster 6 points out of it. If you're going to beat the Bronco's, you better capitalize on those turnovers.

 
Those same 3 turnovers would have probably resulted in 21 points if they were facing Denver's defense.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

 
Those same 3 turnovers would have probably resulted in 21 points if they were facing Denver's defense.

 
We're just going to make shit up now, eh?
 
Sweet.

 

[dcmissle]

No playoff INT should be taken for granted.  GB lost yesterday substantially because it could not reel one in, and the Pats lost a SB in part because of that as well.
 
And one of those INTs yesterday was a thing of beauty.

 

[Stitch01]

Its easier to score on the Denver defense than the Bengals defense though, agreed?  Although they're much less likely to get three straight turnovers to begin with.

 

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

 
We're just going to make shit up now, eh?
 
Sweet.

 
Huh?  I figured the hyperbole was obvious.  It's also pretty obvious that Cincy's D is significantly better than Denver's.

 

[86spike]

 
Those same 3 turnovers would have probably resulted in 21 points if they were facing Denver's defense.

 
considering SD's 17 games so far have seen them score an average of 23.9 points... that would be a lot to convert on just 3 possessions.
 
When you look at SD's season, they have scored 30+ only 4 times.
 
@ Philly (33)
Vs Dallas (30)
@ KC (41)
Vs NY Giants (37)
 
The KC road game is the impressive one (although KC's defense shit itself many times in the second half this year after a strong start).  Philly, Dallas and NYG all had dogshit defenses.
 
If Denver is able to get into it's normal offensive rhythm (which SD was able to prevent twice this season, it bears stating), SD is going to need to bring the house on offense.

 

[dcmissle]

Let he with an impact TE cast the first stone.  Not at all clear to me that the Pats emerge from those situations with more points against the Bengals defense.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Its easier to score on the Denver defense than the Bengals defense though, agreed?  Although they're much less likely to get three straight turnovers to begin with.

 
 

 
Huh?  I figured the hyperbole was obvious.  It's also pretty obvious that Cincy's D is significantly better than Denver's.

 
BBA, you're right. I've fallen into the ever growing "broken sarcasm meter" group this week...
 
With that said, yes, obviously Cincy's D is better than Denvers. But I don't care if you build an all-star team on defense. Not scoring from the 3 yard line is weaksauce.

 

[86spike]

Let he with an impact TE cast the first stone.  Not at all clear to me that the Pats emerge from those situations with more points against the Bengals defense.

 
like this guy?
 

 

[dcmissle]

Spike,  can you confirm what I just heard on the radio:  Broncos and Chargers have met a zillion times, but never in the playoffs?

 

[86spike]

Spike,  can you confirm what I just heard on the radio:  Broncos and Chargers have met a zillion times, but never in the playoffs?

 
confirmed

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

 
confirmed

 
Liar. 
 
They have not played a zillion times.  Do you know how many times a zillion actually is?

 

[86spike]

 
Liar. 
 
They have not played a zillion times.  Do you know how many times a zillion actually is?

 
they've met a zillion times... NFL rosters are big and Broncos have met Chargers at games, in airports, at restaurants, at charity events, at the grocery store exactly one zillion times.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Wait...
 
Does it count if one player from the Broncos runs into another player from the Chargers at the grocery store, or does the entire Bronco and Chargers team have to be in the checkout line?

 

[mpx42]

You know which ex-Patriot for the Chargers looked pretty good against Cincinnati? Ohrnberger. Was run-blocking really well against a tough D-line.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

I think this is a tough matchup for Denver.  They are still a better team and should win this game, but San Diego presents many challenges for Denver that other teams cannot:
 
San Diego is a physical team and Denver is not.  Offensively, San Diego is well balanced (probably the most balanced team in the league) and Denver's D struggles against balanced teams.  Basically, Denver's D isn't balanced.  They have a good run stuffing package with Knighton and Williams in the middle and can still rush the passer even without Miller, but they don't have a base package that can do both. This is where the loss of Vickerson, Wolf (I'm assuming he won't play and if he does, won't be effective) and Moore hurts.  They are balanced players who play well against the run and the pass, while their backups do not.  San Diego should be able to take advantage of Denver's weaknesses based on the package they have in the game.  And doing so will allow them to control the clock and keep the ball away from Manning.  This is the exact formula they used to win in Denver a month ago.  
 
I still expect Denver to win, but I think this is a close game and wouldn't be surprised in San Diego does.  I definitely agree with the analysis above that if Denver can get off to a fast start, they can negate some of these bad matchups and make it tough for San Diego.  

 

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

 
San Diego is a physical team and Denver is not.

 
Where is LDT when you need him?

 

[86spike]

I think this is a tough matchup for Denver.  They are still a better team and should win this game, but San Diego presents many challenges for Denver that other teams cannot:
 
San Diego is a physical team and Denver is not.  Offensively, San Diego is well balanced (probably the most balanced team in the league) and Denver's D struggles against balanced teams.  Basically, Denver's D isn't balanced.  They have a good run stuffing package with Knighton and Williams in the middle and can still rush the passer even without Miller, but they don't have a base package that can do both. This is where the loss of Vickerson, Wolf (I'm assuming he won't play and if he does, won't be effective) and Moore hurts.  They are balanced players who play well against the run and the pass, while their backups do not.  San Diego should be able to take advantage of Denver's weaknesses based on the package they have in the game.  And doing so will allow them to control the clock and keep the ball away from Manning.  This is the exact formula they used to win in Denver a month ago.  
 
I still expect Denver to win, but I think this is a close game and wouldn't be surprised in San Diego does.  I definitely agree with the analysis above that if Denver can get off to a fast start, they can negate some of these bad matchups and make it tough for San Diego.  

 
Excellent analysis, especially on the one-dimensional issue with the defensive personnel.
 
Rookie SS Duke Ihenacho is a great example of this.  The kid plays great against the run, but struggles in pass coverage. Denver will be trying to get him on the field for run plays and off for passing downs.  SD's offense has been pretty predictable (seems like they run on 90% of first downs), but they may try to wrinkle it up with play action sets, etc.  Denver had 3 12-man-on-the-field penalties in the last meeting (and I think they had to burn at least one time out for the same reason in that game) and they will be at risk of the same kinds of fuck-ups if they get caught shifting to many subs in and out trying to mask the one-dimensional weaknesses. 
 
As we've discussed earlier, Denver's best weapon to fight this is to build and hold a quick lead to force SD out of their comfort zone.
 
Another thing worth noting is that Denver can be erratic when returning punts and kick-offs.  Trindon Holliday is fast as anyone in the game when he gets loose, but he is fumble prone and worse, has made some really shitty decisions recently on fair catches and when to field vs when to let it bounce.  Both Welker and Bubba Caldwell have taken turns in his place, but neither are perfect at it either.  Fuck ups like that put Manning on a long field.  They can be the difference between a TD and FG or a punt.  It's a definite area of weakness.
 
When you look at it, Denver has a ferocious offense.  They have a questionable defense (in large part due to the one-dimensional personnel issue Sox and Rocks ID'd) and a questionable special teams unit.
 
SD isn't dominant on offense, defense or ST, but they are solid on all 3 which may not be sexy, but it's winning them games.
 
Denver will win if they execute on offense, manage to step up on defense and get their personnel switches correct, and avoid the field position fuck-ups on ST.  SD will win if they control the clock, plod into the endzone, disrupt Manning enough to slow the scoring and take advantage of field position.  Both sides will need to avoid bad turnovers, but that goes for all teams every week.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Mike Scifres will be a very important factor in the thin air.  He could keep Denver operating from inside its own 20-25 yard line all day; we all know you can't give a great QB 55-60 yard fields throughout the game.  Those hidden yards add up.

 

[86spike]

So Chargers OC Ken Wisenhunt interviewed for the Lions HC job today, will interview with the Titans tomorrow and the Browns on Saturday.

That seems like a shitload of time for him to be away from his team leading up to a playoff game.

I wonder if it will show on Sunday.

 

[jsinger121]

So Chargers OC Ken Wisenhunt interviewed for the Lions HC job today, will interview with the Titans tomorrow and the Browns on Saturday.

That seems like a shitload of time for him to be away from his team leading up to a playoff game.

I wonder if it will show on Sunday.

My guess is the teams are coming to him.