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AFC Divisional Buildup: Chargers vs. Pats

Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by DeadlySplitter, Jan 6, 2019.

  1. brandonchristensen

    brandonchristensen mad photochops SoSH Member

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    Fuck
     
  2. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    Ugh that’s awful.
     
  3. koufax32

    koufax32 He'll cry if he wants to... SoSH Member

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    I can’t even begin to imagine how horrible that must be.
     
  4. simplyeric

    simplyeric aggressively nonsensical SoSH Member

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    Fucking horrible.
    This might sound weird but: if he plays this weekend, and playing this weekend gives him even a few minutes of respite from thinking about that, then please let it be so. Maybe he’ll even get a few hours of distraction or respite. And if he doesn’t play, well, I hope he can find solace over time.
     
  5. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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  6. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    He says that he will be playing.

    Impossible to imagine what he's going through
     
  7. Ralphwiggum

    Ralphwiggum Member SoSH Member

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  8. CantKeepmedown

    CantKeepmedown Member SoSH Member

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    Geez, they didn't mince many words when it came to Marlon McCree's INT/fumble. And Lorenzo Neal utters the phrase you hear when a lot of teams lose to the Pats......"if we played them 10 times, we'd win 9 of them". He admitted they were too arrogant and cocky. Good read. Is it Sunday yet?
     
  9. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    McCree also had a rough 2018.

     
  10. Reggie's Racquet

    Reggie's Racquet Member SoSH Member

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  11. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    20,266
  12. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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  13. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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  14. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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  15. steveluck7

    steveluck7 Member SoSH Member

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    Especially with Hunter Henry coming back from his injury so we can't be sure he'll be full-go. Plus Gordon missed practice yesterday with his knee injury.
     
  16. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    Smart by LAC. Minimize a Pats strength while limiting their own weakness (they allowed by far the most kickoff returns in the league - 61; Pats were #2 at 42). They did cover KOs well this year, but having a better boot-it-out option makes a ton of sense. With 46-man rosters, burning a roster spot on a KO guy isn't a big deal at all.
     
  17. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Boston Sports Info on Twitter is a great follow. They tweeted this stat out today. Look where Rivers ranks. That is why they need to blitz as much as they can to force mistakes on 3rd down. Of course, getting to 3rd and long is the key.

     
  18. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Maybe I'm missing it, but I don't see where it shows the percentage of first downs made on those opportunities
     
  19. simplyeric

    simplyeric aggressively nonsensical SoSH Member

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    Chart suggests that LAC has had noticeably more 3rd and long situations than the Pats (74 times and 60, resp.)
    Getting to 3rd and long is key, and seems (statistically) doable.
     
  20. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    You can get that here:
    https://www.pro-football-reference....cation[]=DM&pass_location[]=DR&order_by=yards

    Pats as a team are 7th at 31% first downs, which includes 68 Brady dropbacks (60 passes, 8 sacks), one Hoyer attempt (complete, no first) and the ill-fated Tennessee pass to Brady. League average is about 26%.

    The crazy thing: the Pats are terrible at converting 3rd-and-less-than-7 - just 39%, which ranks 30th (league average is 47%). It looks like the problem area is in the 3rd-and-4-to-6 range, where they rank 31st in first down percentage. Their rate is actually a bit lower than on 7+.
     
  21. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Thanks.

    Just an eyeball thing, but could the 4-to-6 yard thing be where we're seeing the effects of Gronk's slowdown?
     
  22. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    Maybe? He got only 4 targets in those situations last year but they went for 4 first downs. This year, it's 2 for 5. But White is only 6 for 14, Edelman 1 for 7, and Gordon 1 for 5.

    We are deep in the SSS weeds so I hesitate to theorize too much because we are talking about stuff that could easily be statistical noise. But I think it's interesting that Brady hasn't been sacked at all in these situations (is he getting rid of the ball too soon?) and that he's thrown deep on 11 of 39 attempts, which is more often than you'd think given the situation. That tells me defenses are doing a good job taking away the short stuff and making Brady throw deep. They're only 2-for-11 on those deep passes. OTOH, they are 31st even if I just look at the short throws in that range. Again, SSS caveats; the difference between 31st and average is like 4 first downs.
     
  23. ObstructedView

    ObstructedView Member SoSH Member

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    Weather shaping up to be a non-factor: sunny and mid-20s with light winds. There had been a storm threat, but it seems clear now that it will stay well south.
     
  24. simplyeric

    simplyeric aggressively nonsensical SoSH Member

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    Except for the kicking game: hard, low-psi balls. (I mean, it's not single digits, but still)
     
  25. CantKeepmedown

    CantKeepmedown Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, it was in the 50's in Baltimore. Mid 20's feels a lot different. Although they'll have a couple days to acclimate, as it's supposed to really cool down starting tomorrow.
     
  26. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Given the Pats' extreme home-road splits this year, is it fair to just use their home numbers as a potential guide to this weekend's matchups? (and also, LA's road numbers)

    Pats at home:
    Points scored: 32.9
    Points allowed: 16.6
    Point differential: +16.3
    1st Downs: 25.6
    1st Downs allowed: 17.5
    Rush yards: 156.8
    Pass yards: 273.9
    Total yards: 430.6
    Rush yards allowed: 98.6
    Pass yards allowed: 220.8
    Total yards allowed: 319.4

    Chargers on road (including wild card game):
    Points scored: 27.2
    Points allowed: 19.6
    Point differential: +7.6
    1st Downs: 19.8
    1st Downs allowed: 20.4
    Rush yards: 130.9
    Pass yards: 220.3
    Total yards: 351.2
    Rush yards allowed: 102.6
    Pass yards allowed: 234.4
    Total yards allowed: 337.0

    Just for fun, taking these two averages you end up with:
    Patriots points: 26
    Chargers points: 22
    NE 1st downs: 23
    LA 1st downs: 19
    NE rush yards: 130
    NE pass yards: 254
    NE total yards: 384
    LA rush yards: 115
    LA pass yards: 221
    LA total yards: 336
     
  27. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    The cold weather really affects the passing game if you're not used to catching a rock hard football.
     
  28. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Been watching this the last couple of days. Here's a real cold weather game in Foxboro

     
  29. Riconway3155

    Riconway3155 Member SoSH Member

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    I was at that game. Only event I have gone to that we tailgated inside the truck instead of out of it. I remember there being a guy a couple sections over with no shirt on for about 4 minutes until security made him put one back on. I have no idea how he did that.

    I'll also be at the game on Sunday. Won't be as cold, but I hope the result will be the same!
     
  30. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Every time I watch this replay, I expect Bethel Johnson to drop that first TD.
     
  31. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Wow, Seymour was sure, um, "active" that game. Dude was roid raging a half dozen different times that first half. A lot less disciplined than I remember him.
     
  32. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    I was there too. Was fortunate enough to tailgate with an electrician - we had an enclosed tent, portable generator, lights, and a space heater. Had it in the 50s inside the tent. Wasn't bad at all. Memorable night.
     
  33. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

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    Finally you have figured out the secret to Vegas handicapping.
    This is exactly how they have the score coming out when you take the point spread and O/U into consideration.
     
  34. Mooch

    Mooch Member SoSH Member

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    I was there also. I still maintain that Vinatieri's 46 yard FG in the 4th quarter was the most incredible thing I've ever seen. Kicking the football was damned near impossible that day. Both punters struggled to get one even 30 yards and the kickers in pre-game were coming up short on anything inside of 35.
     
  35. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Yeah that was truly an amazing kick. It must have been like kicking a rock.
     
  36. Mooch

    Mooch Member SoSH Member

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    I meant "outside of 35", of course.
     
  37. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    He does in the Black Mirror version
     
  38. simplyeric

    simplyeric aggressively nonsensical SoSH Member

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    SO MUCH GARY GLITTER!
     
  39. Cabin Mirror

    Cabin Mirror Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    They were warming the ball with the sideline heater at 1:45:48. Controversy!

    I don't recall if the "k" balls were kept separate or not in those days. He was probably just warming his practice ball so he didn't break his foot.
     
  40. Bunt4aTriple

    Bunt4aTriple Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    I drove down from Lewiston to meet an equally broke buddy. We parked two miles away in an auto body lot (my car would have fit in better at a salvage yard). Threw a 30 rack and a fifth of cinnamon schnapps in a backpack and headed for the lots. Dunks had trucks everywhere, so we would double fist coffees and bud lite slushies.

    We were hoping to find a couple of extras among the tailgaters but eventually wandered by the box office where we were like 4th in line. Ended up with tickets on the 40, 20 rows behind the pats bench for $115 each.
     
  41. Bowhemian

    Bowhemian Member SoSH Member

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    I was also at that game. It was pretty cold, but I was dressed appropriately. And I kept all my clothes on. I bought a beer from a vendor when I got through the gate. The vendor checked my ID, but not sure how that dude knew that the ID was mine considering the fact that I was wearing a ski mask. But yeah, beer slushies
     
  42. PC Drunken Friar

    PC Drunken Friar Member SoSH Member

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    Was at that game too. The Miller lite big bottles froze at the neck if you didn't drink it fast enough. Wearing so many clothes, tho, it was easy to sneak in a whole lot of Bailey's to go with hot chocolate.
     
  43. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  44. wiffleballhero

    wiffleballhero Member SoSH Member

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    I was on the couch for that game, I had a wicked nice wood stove at the time. I was drinking red wine, I don't think my pipes froze and the cable signal held. It was glorious!

    I am being only a little facetious. I love watching brutal weather football from the comfort of my warm living room. It is one of the small, cozy joys of winter. I would not go to the stadium for these games if it was in my back yard.
     
  45. Fisks Of Fury

    Fisks Of Fury Member SoSH Member

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    Wife and I were there. We "tailgated" by eating some subs in the car, and then went into the stadium with high-end sleeping bags. when we got to our seats, we each climbed in, zipped up and sat down. I'm sure we looked ridiculous, but we were relatively comfortable, and the people sitting around us up in section 317 were jealous.
     
  46. simplyeric

    simplyeric aggressively nonsensical SoSH Member

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    I was probably at The Riviera...maybe Harrison’s.
     
  47. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    There aren’t many games from 15 years ago that I can remember the details of watching, but that was one. My wife and I had driven to PA that morning to visit her sick aunt. Being out of the city with the car, we decided to do a mega grocery run before leaving. As we were finishing dinner, we all decided that a 3-hour drive in single digits at night wouldn’t be safe (our car was about 100 years old) so we would spend the night. This made me happy as I could watch the game on live TV (not DVR starting at 11pm). Funny part was that we realized that we had to bring in any of our liquid groceries (like soda or soup) so it wouldn’t freeze overnight.
     
  48. alydar

    alydar Member SoSH Member

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    Also at that game, I remember the beer slushees well. Given that I was A Idiot back then, I’m surprised I didn’t lose any digits to frostbite, there’s no way I was properly prepared for that degree of cold.
     
  49. DaveRoberts'Shoes

    DaveRoberts'Shoes Aaron Burr Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I was on call as a resident for that one- the cold worked in my favor because it was too cold for anyone to go outside and break anything. Got to watch it from the warmth of my call room
     
  50. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    I was in college in 03. I was a basketball manager and we had a game that night. I only got back for the 4th quarter.
     

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