On the opposite side of things: with his long of 40 yards (recent game notwithstanding), and an average of 23.7, what's his "short"? And how much does he vary from his average? Seems like, to be worth the risk, you need to push them at least 10 yards back from a touchback. So, if he only very rarely gets stopped for short gains (i.e. has a lot of stuff between the 15 and the 30), your percentages suggest that they'll end up starting on the in the high teens or better, instead of the 25, what's the point? The 18? The 15? If he has a bigger variance (bunches of sub-15, and then a bunch of 30+), that's a different question. Then it seems like a question of how good you feel about your coverage.