Ae Crowder: Where is the J?

[Cesar Crespo]

Credit to Johnnythebone for thread title.

Jae Crowder has taken some heat in the game threads and "Playoff Jae" looks like it may actually be a thing. He's had some moments in the playoffs but for the most part he's been invisible or bad. His shot hasn't been falling and when his shot isn't falling, he looks ugly.

I'm of the belief that SF is one of the positions easiest to upgrade, and by default that would also upgrade our bench by pushing Jae Crowder into a 20-25 minute role. Signing a SF would also give less court time/development time for Jaylen Brown. It could also open up the possibility of trading Jae Crowder.

It seems Jae Crowder gets overrated as a player because of his cheap contract. While his size isn't necessarily a problem, it becomes a problem when IT4/AB/Rozier are in the backcourt.

 

[smastroyin]

He gets "overrated" as a player because his on/off numbers are really good. He gets underrated because people understand very little about team defense and only look at box scores.

This year the Celtics were 9.3 Pts/100 better on offense with him in, and 2.2 better on defense.
Last year they were 5 better on offense and 1.2 worse on defense (but he was actually fucking spectacular in this regard in the playoffs, the Hawks scored 18.7 Pts/100 less when he was on the floor - it's a small sample of course, but if we're talking about "playoff Jae" then I'm going to bring the same small sample to you)
The year before, after being traded, the Celtics were 5.3 better on offense and 0.2 better on defense.

Now, on/off numbers aren't perfect, there are lineup considerations, it's probably not a coincidence that he looks better with Horford on board this year, for instance. You can also say that 3 and D players are typically overrated by these measures in the regular season, or you can make the HRB argument that once you're in the playoffs, your length and reach are going to matter more than they did (I'm not here to argue whether that is true or not, just putting forth theories). What none of these things are is people saying "yeah, Crowder isn't very good but he's cheap so I think that makes him good." as you seem to be implying.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

You're implying I said he was bad. He's a decent player made more valuable by his contract. Those players are often overrated. Jae Crowder at $8 mil is better than Jae Crowder at $14 mil, but on the court they provide the same value.

He is playing 35 minutes a night and the Celtics fare better against the Bulls going small so he is playing an important part.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

You're implying I said he was bad. He's a decent player made more valuable by his contract. Those players are often overrated. Jae Crowder at $8 mil is better than Jae Crowder at $14 mil, but on the court they provide the same value.

I don't think you can divorce the contract because Jae Crowder at $14M means that the Cs are likely skimping somewhere else.

Jae Crowder has been an extremely valuable player for the Cs the last two years. By one rough measure, his Win Shares this year were 6.7, which was the third highest for "3 & D" wings other than Porter (9.4) and Tobias Harris, if you want to call him that.

And even when he's not hitting his shots, the fact that he spaces the floor and can switch multiple positions in defense helps the Cs utilize IT4 as well as they do.

3 & D players on cheap contracts are extremely valuable to teams. The 'Zards wouldn't be where they are without Porter on his deal this year and (I presume) Oubre takes over on a cheap deal next year. However, if the 'Zards sign Porter, I think they are going to find roster building a real challenge while they have three max players under contract.

 

[Captaincoop]

Stop trying to make 'Zards happen. It's not going to happen.

 

[Sprowl]

I don't think you can divorce the contract because Jae Crowder at $14M means that the Cs are likely skimping somewhere else.

Jae Crowder has been an extremely valuable player for the Cs the last two years. By one rough measure, his Win Shares this year were 6.7, which was the third highest for "3 & D" wings other than Porter (9.4) and Tobias Harris, if you want to call him that.

FWIW, Real Plus-Minus ranks Crowder seventh among small forwards. It seems that almost every big deal the Celtics did not make over the last few years involved the other team wanting Crowder as a throw-in, and Ainge refusing.

Stevens is also going to Crowder as a power forward in most game-ending situations. He's not very tall or a great jumper, but he will body up and box out opposing 4s.

 

[nighthob]

Stop trying to make 'Zards happen. It's not going to happen.

Yeah, everyone knows it's the Wiz.

 

[smastroyin]

I was probably harsh, I was reading Celticsblog this morning and there was a lot of complaining about Jae in general so my dander was up. I don't think he's been great this series but I don't think that proves some larger overall point about his ability. My point is more that guys like Crowder don't often fill up box scores, but have an influence on how the team runs its offense and defense sets. But as a 3 and D guy when he starts missing 3's then it's easy to rag on him. He doesn't create his own shot, he doesn't have a ton of moves to get fed the ball in easy space, and he's not a rebound machine. But, I think he is part of why the Celtics have won more games every year since he got here, too.

 

[slamminsammya]

Firstly, I love 'Zards. Secondly, dude shot nearly 40% on threes this year. Thirdly, hes taken 85 career playoff three point attempts. He took about 400 threes this season. Lets not be fooled by randomness folks.

And as others have mentioned, he can defend 3 positions on the floor well. This is one of those things about todays NBA that is important but maybe subtle to understand watching the games. There was a stretch last night where the Bulls whole strategy was getting IT into a switch and attacking him. This is how the league works now - having people who can switch without problem is huge, even if they don't look like amazing one on one defenders.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

For his career he is at .345. Before this year, he was a career .324 3 point shooter with a season high of .336. This year was an outlier, maybe it shows true improvement. Either way, .345 and even .324 is a far cry from .259.

 

[bowiac]

For his career he is at .345. Before this year, he was a career .324 3 point shooter with a season high of .336. This year was an outlier, maybe it shows true improvement. Either way, .345 and even .324 is a far cry from .259.

Not over 85 shots it's not. It's eight or six shots respectively.

James Harden is shooting .272 from three over his last 92 attempts in the playoffs. What do you think a good O/U for his 3PT% the rest of the playoffs is?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Not over 85 shots it's not. It's eight or six shots respectively.

James Harden is shooting .272 from three over his last 92 attempts in the playoffs. What do you think a good O/U for his 3PT% the rest of the playoffs is?

I meant we should expect closer to a .345. I think .259 is just bad luck.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Not over 85 shots it's not. It's eight or six shots respectively.

James Harden is shooting .272 from three over his last 92 attempts in the playoffs. What do you think a good O/U for his 3PT% the rest of the playoffs is?

Closer to home, Isaiah is 24/102 (.235) from three in his playoff career, including his 8/38 (.210) this year. Are we worried about playoff IT? Should we be doubling playoff Bobby Portis?

 

[Saints Rest]

Am I correct in remembering that for parts of Games 1 or 2, Crowder was defending Rondo as his main cover (i.e. Not a post PnR switch)?

 

[Spelunker]

Yeah, everyone knows it's the Wiz.

Nah, the team loses all the time.

 

[bowiac]

I meant we should expect closer to a .345. I think .259 is just bad luck.

Apologies - misunderstanding by me there.

 

[JakeRae]

I meant we should expect closer to a .345. I think .259 is just bad luck.

I don't think .345 is a good baseline. He was an essentially .330 shooter his first 4 seasons. This year, he jumped to .400. That leap is large enough, and over a large enough volume, that the best estimate is probably something like a 3-2-1 weighted average than a pure career average. If we did that, his expected shooting ability looks more like .360. Of course, if you include his playoff shooting, which I omitted only out of laziness, the expectation now is probably a decent amount lower.

 

[reggiecleveland]

The Cs get it going from 3 just a bit they skullfuck the Rondoless Bulls.

One problem I see for JC's 3% is he seems to have had tough luck getting the ball with the shoy clock running down a bit more than usual in his series.

 

[reggiecleveland]

The Cs get it going from 3 just a bit they skullfuck the Rondoless Bulls.
.

Called it.

 

[smastroyin]

In this game, and part of it is the way the Wizards play defense, the Celtics really looked like they were trying to set Crowder on what he does best, catch and shoot, and it paid off. AS I've noted elsewhere, I don't expect him to hit 75% of his 3's going forward, but if the Wizards continue to let him receive the ball in position to shoot, he'll be in for a big series.

 

[chilidawg]

Two games in a row the J is back in Jae.