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265 Or Bust: Taking Aim At The Team HR Record

Discussion in 'Yankees Discussion' started by jon abbey, Mar 13, 2018.

  1. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I didn't want to start this too early, but NY seems to be in pretty good health with two weeks to go before Opening Day, plus the addition of Walker's pull power today, so here goes...

    Last year, NY led all of MLB with 241 team HRs, 16th most alltime. The record is by the 1997 Mariners, 264, and after adding Stanton (who ZiPS projected for 55 HRs, regression and a better park to hit in evidently cancelling each other out), they'd seem to have a good shot at that, assuming good health and that I haven't angered the baseball gods too much by posting this.

    Anyway, I thought we could keep an eye on that here as the season progresses. I don't think it makes too much sense to project specifics until we see who actually makes the team, but here is a piece from last month that tries, before Drury and Walker and maybe Lind*, they have NY at 250 there:

    https://www.mlb.com/news/yankees-can-challenge-home-run-record-in-2018/c-265253614

    *No way Lind makes the team now barring injuries, maybe he will agree to go to Scranton until his 6/1 optout, but I don't think he makes the roster at any point unless Bird goes on the DL. But if that did happen, he would be a nice option to still have around against RHP so hopefully they can figure out how to do that. Lind's other opt-out is 3/22 (next Thursday) so we should know if he is a depth option still or not soon. Also Mike Ford has been awful trying to make SEA's roster so far, so he may be coming back soon too...
     
  2. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    I say Didi hits the first HR.
     
  3. brs3

    brs3 sings praises of pinstripes SoSH Member

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    Aaron Judge, even with a monster finish, slumped hard in the second half of 2017. Stanton will arguably be facing better pitching in the AL. I think assuming either player will come close to duplicating their 2017 seasons is asking a lot, and to reach 265, I think they'll need to come close.
     
  4. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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  5. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Totally fair, but also remember they got very little from Bird last regular season. He tried to play hurt in April and was an automatic out and didn't come back until the final month when he was back to himself.

    Anyway, I think Stanton will hit more towards 45-50 this year but Judge might hit more, he needs to not throw himself around in the OF quite so much (it is usually very welcome at the time, though) and keep himself healthy to punish baseballs. Also both should get pitched around less, has there been a scarier pair of back-to-back hitters since Manny/Ortiz? Sheffield/A-Rod had a few years too.
     
  6. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    This is true but there’s too many variables to say why. Could have been a hitch in his swing, the hot streaks could be the real flukes, the shoulder injury that required surgery could have been a big factor. For the purposes of this thread though, I don’t think his HR power is in doubt at all. For purposes of figuring out whether Aaron Judge is an elite hitter, totally can either way.
     
  7. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    If NY goes with the more established Walker/Drury to start the season at 2B/3B, as a baseline here is how many that lineup hit last year:

    Sanchez-33 in 525 PAs
    Bird-8 in 98 PAs once he was healthy, 9 in 170 if you count April too
    Walker-14 in 448 PAs
    Didi-25 in 570 PAs
    Drury-13 in 480 PAs
    Gardner-21 in 682 PAs
    Hicks-15 in 361 PAs
    Judge-52 in 678 PAs
    Stanton-59 in 692 PAs

    So that is 241 combined with an average of 512 PAs apiece. For comparison, last year's NY top 9 HR hitters had 204 between them in almost the exact same number of PAs.
     
  8. Couperin47

    Couperin47 Member SoSH Member

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    The karma of this thread is off-the charts bad. I'm going to try and pretend it does not exist.
     
  9. VORP Speed

    VORP Speed Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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  10. EvilEmpire

    EvilEmpire Dope Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    Yup.
     
  11. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    732
    I'd like to see them take aim at 114, not 264.
     
  12. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    How does Colorado not hold this record?
     
  13. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    It is surprising it's not higher, I saw one projection system this year (I forget which, sorry) that had both NY and BAL breaking the record this year, and those projection systems are generally conservative.
     
  14. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    It was Zips/Steamer on Fangraphs:

     
  15. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    https://www.mlb.com/news/7-guarantees-for-the-2018-season/c-268901626

    =====================

    1. The Yankees will break the team home run record.

    Though baseball's homer record fell in 2017, the team mark did not. The '97 Mariners still hold the all-time team record at 264. That's going to change. Probably.

    We wrote about this in detail last month, when we noted that the 2017 Yankees already led the Majors in homers with 241, and then they went out and added Giancarlo Stanton anyway. At the time, that was enough to put them into the conversation for the record, but they've made two more moves since then, adding Brandon Drury and Neil Walker, who combined to hit 27 homers last year. That should take time away from the light-hitting bats of utility infielders like Ronald Torreyes and Tyler Wade.

    Maybe the question here isn't about if they'll break the record. Maybe it's more about when they break the record. Is it too much to wonder if it happens before the end of August?
     
  16. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    You should start a poll as to how many HRs the NYY will hit. Is 300 out of reach?
     
  17. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Heh, no, and I do think the August thing is ridiculous. But it should be fun keeping an eye on for NY fans, that writer is a normally level-headed stats-based national guy and he is all revved up.
     
  18. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    I agree. This will just be fun to track and isn't some way of saying the Yankees are going to rule baseball and be the best. Homeruns aren't indicative of a great season.
     
  19. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I think it's pretty unanimous that Houston is the team to beat, NY is somewhere in the next few. HOU needs to figure out their bullpen by the postseason but a potential playoff rotation of Verlander/Keuchel/Cole/McCullers is pretty insane.

    The crazy thing actually is that besides the HRs, NY also is supposed to have a historically good bullpen, the highest combined projected WAR in some of these offseason systems, but still HOU is the better team overall on paper starting the season.
     
  20. VORP Speed

    VORP Speed Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Is this the official jinx thread? Jon, were you consulted on this book? This guy prob cribbed half the book from the good NYY threads here. Next Yankee Dynasty is bold, though, even if unfortunately probably true.

    ImageUploadedBySons of Sam Horn1521656780.661067.jpg
     
  21. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I read that book last week, Hoch is a good beat reporter and people seem to be loving it on Twitter but indeed the book is quite flimsy and unnecessary.
     
  22. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    18 HR through 14 games, current pace of 208 which would have ranked 15th in all of MLB last year

    Stanton, Judge, Didi, and Sanchez all have 3 HR.

    Oh and the Yankees have given up 17 HR on the year, on pace for 197 allowed. They gave up 192 last year, similar amount.
     
  23. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Lot of games in crappy weather so far.
     
  24. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Oh no doubt they will pick up the pace. I think they end somewhere in the 225-240 range
     
  25. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    They mentioned this on the YES broadcast tonight, so just passing it on:

    4 tonight puts them at 32 through 21 games, which is a projected 246 for the year. But Michael Kay said that SEA had just 25 through their first 21 games when they set the record, so NY is way ahead from that perspective.
     
  26. hbk72777

    hbk72777 lurker

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    And O'Neill and other players keep noting that a lot of balls would've left the yard in warmer weather (Sanchez last night, being 1 example). So they may even pick up the pace in May

    P.S. Didi is on pace for 54 himself, not to mention 185 RBI.

    Sick
     
  27. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    Four more jacks tonight.
     
  28. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    Fellow SoSHer from yesterday puts things in perspective about what the Yankees COULD do.

     
  29. hbk72777

    hbk72777 lurker

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    Missed the game, but reading the box score.

    My god, how huge is Didi's contract going to be in 2020?

    I remember thinking last year, how huge his stats would have been had he not missed a month. We're finding out now
     
  30. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    Am I the only one who thinks Gary Sanchez is the reincarnation of Roy Campanella?
     
  31. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Through roughly 1/4 of the season on pace for 231, a bit down from last year. Unsure about the pace through 40 games though.

    I maintain 225-240 range.
     
  32. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Greg Bird joining the team in a week or so, that should help.
     
  33. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    They had hit 62 through their first 40 games last year, 6 more than currently. However, the 40th game was a week later last year, and the weather has been worse than normal this year. I don't think I have the skills to look up actual weather in the amount of time I'm willing to commit :).
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/tgl.cgi?team=NYY&t=b&year=2017

    Interestingly, Cleveland has 1 more homer (57) and the Angels and Blue Jays are tied with the Yankees.
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2018.shtml
     
  34. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Even more interesting is the Sox, with 54, at least in comparison to the complete lack of HR power last year
     
  35. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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  36. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Finally NY is getting some games in warm weather and the results are not surprising, 14 in the last 3 games in KC and TEX has them right at 265 pace (72 in 44 games). Bird is supposed to be back for the first time this season this weekend also, which should help against tough righties.
     
  37. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Interestingly NY has 8+ extra base hits three games in a row, only three teams before ever did that and the last two are the two I would cite as the best two lineups of my lifetime 1-9, 2003 Red Sox and 1999 Indians (and the 1935 Senators).
     
  38. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    The 2003 Red Sox actually had 15 such games (not in a row), which blows away the 2nd place teams (11 games for 2017 HOU and 1929 DET). The following teams had 10 such games:
    • 2017 NYY
    • 2013 BOS
    • 2011 BOS
    • 2006 TEX
    • 1999 OAK
    • 1936 NYY
    • 1930 NYY
    • 1930 STL
    The Yankees have 5 already, through 51 games. The 1999 SEA, 2014 COL and 2016 COL each had 6 in their first 51 games. 11 other teams had 5 of them, including the 2009 & 2016 Red Sox and the 1936 Yankees.
     
  39. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    109 through 65 games (counting the suspended WAS game), on pace for 272.
     

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