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2019 NCAA Pool

Discussion in 'College Sports' started by Dan Murfman, Mar 13, 2019.

  1. Dan Murfman

    Dan Murfman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,454
    My school is still irrelevant but the pool must go on. Same as the last few years. $20 entry fee. Same payment methods and added Apple Pay. And once again on the site it says no PayPal but feel free to to use it. Send payments to dcinct@gmail.com.

    The site is at murphysmarchmadness.com as opposed to .net. Any questions let me know.
     
  2. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

    Messages:
    20,907
    Spring is near!
     
  3. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    33,342
  4. inJacobyWeTrust

    inJacobyWeTrust Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    867
    Yesssssssssss just paid via PayPal, looking forward to losing again!
     
  5. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    33,342
    Sent in 2
     
  6. johnmd20

    johnmd20 literally like ebola Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    37,618
    I'm in, thanks for running this.
     
  7. bostonbeerbelly

    bostonbeerbelly Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,833
    Awesome I will be in for a few will paypal for all at once probably close to deadline, if you want to limit paypals I have no problem sending in a check like I have done in the past.
     
  8. Dan Murfman

    Dan Murfman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,454
    PayPal is fine. Just don't reference pool or March Madness. They shut me down a few years ago. But I had a PayPal button right on the site. Last couple of years when it's just limited to here and just sending it to me it's worked okay.
     
  9. adam42381

    adam42381 Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,841
  10. Dan Murfman

    Dan Murfman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,454
    All set. Let me know if there are any issues.
     
  11. Dan Murfman

    Dan Murfman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,454
    Dr Tooth first again!
     
  12. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

    Messages:
    20,907
  13. PC Drunken Friar

    PC Drunken Friar Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,280
    Here, take my money for another year!
     
  14. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,342
    Okay, I paid last week and did my 2 entries and am contemplating another...
     
  15. DanoooME

    DanoooME Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,239
    Sent payment for two. It may come up as my e-mail or All Star Baseball Cards
     
  16. NJ_Sox_Fan

    NJ_Sox_Fan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,602
    Paid for my one entry via PayPal
     
  17. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,342
    Just sent in another $20 (sent 2 last week, so I need to go make a 3rd bracket).
     
  18. Doug Beerabelli

    Doug Beerabelli Killer Threads Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,502
  19. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

    Messages:
    20,907
    How many entries we at?
     
  20. Dan Murfman

    Dan Murfman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,454
    Just got a text from my wife. It’s now at 131.
     
  21. NJ_Sox_Fan

    NJ_Sox_Fan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,602
    If I can ever get time I may do a 2nd.
     
  22. B H Kim

    B H Kim Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,641
    Just submitted 4 entries (one each for me, my wife and two kids) and sent $80 via PayPal.
     
  23. The Filthy One

    The Filthy One Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,984
    In for a single entry. Paid via Venmo.
     
  24. Dan Murfman

    Dan Murfman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,454

    Any problem? I have 4 entries but 2 from you that look like a duplication.
     
  25. bostonbeerbelly

    bostonbeerbelly Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,833
    Paid for 5 entries via paypal - 3 under my name, 2 under my assistants name initials MF
     
  26. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,342
    We hit 200 entries?
     
  27. czar

    czar fanboy SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,148
    In for 3, paid via Venmo. Thanks for running this.
     
  28. Dan Murfman

    Dan Murfman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,454
    30 minutes to go were at 292
     
  29. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    33,342
    DAMN, big jump from the 131 yesterday.
     
  30. kenneycb

    kenneycb Hates Goose Island Beer; Loves Backdoor Play SoSH Member

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    12,343
    What were previous years for reference (or at least last year)? Trying to see if my odds are 0.0001% or 0.00001%.
     
  31. Dan Murfman

    Dan Murfman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,454
    I don’t have exact figure on me but it was in the 280s. Unofficially at 298 this year. Might be a couple duplicates
     
  32. Dan Murfman

    Dan Murfman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,454
    I used to track it day by day. Thursday morning has always been crazy.
     
  33. B H Kim

    B H Kim Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,641
    Dan, thanks for clearing this up.
     
  34. Dan Murfman

    Dan Murfman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,454
    18 perfect brackets left.

    187 entries had the Murray St "upset"
     
  35. Dan Murfman

    Dan Murfman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,454
    And no one survives the day perfect. 4 with one wrong.
     
  36. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,342
    Interesting that today more than half of pool picked #13 seed UC-Irvine to win and #12 Oregon to win.

    Based on the entries of folks with the same champ I have, it looks like the important games for me today are VCU over UCF, Cincy over Iowa, and Washington over Utah St. (I hate this pick).
     
  37. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

    Messages:
    1,445
    I don’t see the payout structure on the website. It should be published as part of the rules. Should’ve been before play began, but definitely ASAP.

    Likely or possible winners (who surely won’t include me) shouldn’t have to wait until the Final Four to learn after an ad hoc decision that if they come in first, they’ll only get 30% of the pool, or if they come in third they get nothing, or whatever the case may be.
     
  38. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

    Messages:
    20,907
    Historically it has been 60-30-10
     
  39. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

    Messages:
    1,445
    Pretty sure it’s paid 5 places the last couple of years. This is why it should be published in advance.
     
  40. Dan Murfman

    Dan Murfman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,454
    You're correct. I screwed up. I thought I uploaded but didn't check it off.
     
  41. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    1,445
    Thanks for handling it, and all the work you do on this.
     
  42. Dernells Casket n Flagon

    Dernells Casket n Flagon Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,466
  43. Dan Murfman

    Dan Murfman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,454
    This actually is a different Honsel. Last year’s Honsel only put in 3.
     
  44. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,487
    Dude’s a flat out beast!!
     
  45. B H Kim

    B H Kim Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,641
    Well, my annual pool strategy of trying to pick the longest shot (but still somewhat plausible) overall champ didn’t quite pay off this year. Thanks, Iowa State.
     
  46. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,487
    In Top-20 but only hope to gain with the late round chalk is with OK beating VA, Irvine beating Oregon and then Irvine over OK. Need this perfect storm out of one venue to have a chance for the win.
     
    #46 HomeRunBaker, Mar 23, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2019
  47. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,342
    Yeah, last year I had a bad day 2 and thought I was out and wasn't.

    This year I had a bad day 2 and my best entry is like 200. So, uh....damn.
     
  48. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

    Messages:
    1,445
    The leaders are there on the back of the correct mathematical strategy of picking every 11 and 12 seed to win its first game. 11 and 12 seeds historically win about 35% of the time, so, because of the bonus, by picking an 11 to win, you have an EV of 2.1 points (.35*6), compared to an EV of only .65 of a point picking the 6. For the 5/12 matchups, the EV discrepancy is 2.8 (.35*8) to .65.

    Unless you have some inside info that one team is throwing the game, it’s way too risky to pick the Lower seed.
     
  49. bostonbeerbelly

    bostonbeerbelly Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,833
    Picking 9-12 seeds - went 11-5
    Picking 1-4 seeds to advance to the sweet 16 went 14-2

    Andrew Nelson played this exact strategy and is sitting tied for 9th.

    I kind of wish he kept this strategy going and picked top 2 seeds in each bracket to advance, and then all number 1's to advance.

    I would guess this would be almost the most optimal strategy a computer would generate based on EV with upset picks.
     
  50. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

    Messages:
    1,445
    No, because this year was an outlier with chalk advancing in the second round. 3-seeds and 4-seeds in particular make the Sweet 16 only around 50% of the time each, while 11s and 12s make it about 15% of the time. In the second round itself, 11s and 12s actually win 43% of the time when they make it there, giving the 12 an EV of almost 4 points in the second round (2+8 for beating the 4)*.43*.80(4s get upset in the first round 20%) + (2*.43*.20) = 3.64 EV. Compared to just around .57 for the 3 and 4. Of course, the 3 and 4 do have a better chance of advancing in the next round -they make it there 25 and 15% of the time respectively, and win 49% and 33% of the times they make it to the Sweet 16, so there is some implied value, but not enough to overcome the massive EV edge for the 11s and 12s in the second round.

    So again considering the bonus, im pretty sure it is the correct play to pick every 5 and 6 seed to advance to the Sweet 16.
     

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