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2019 Draft

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by nighthob, Feb 25, 2018.

  1. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    Since the odds of Boston picking up a top five pick in June are remote, I figured it’s time to start a thread for next year’s draft. I’m not going to mention the possible high school direct entries since that supposed change hasn’t come yet.

    I know that most people like to hate on next year’s pool, I’m a little higher on it than most. I like the big four from next year, even Zion Williamson. He’s more or less entering the league at the right time, at the time when the positions have become Bigs, Big Wings, Wings, and Lead Guards. If he can even develop as a spot up shooter from three he’s going to be a load for teams to defend.

    Barrett is going to be the best of the pool, but absent Bol Bol ramping up his game to a new level he won’t be there for Boston. Bol is the prototype stretch 5 of the modern NBA.

    Cam Reddish is my personal favorite from next year’s pool. Reminds me of Jayson Tatum, sneaky athletic, very heady, very long, and can play defense. I like him here as it opens up using Brown as the basis for a deal for someone like Davis.

    Here’s a good video breakdown of Cam Reddish.



    Here we have another shooting guard that I like, Keldon Johnson. Reminds me a little of Ray Allen, more fluid than overly athletic, but certainly has a good drive game. And the shooting form is really good.

     
    #1 nighthob, Feb 25, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2018
  2. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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  3. Marbleheader

    Marbleheader Dope Dope

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    I've always felt like this pick is going to be dealt.
     
  4. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    I mean it could be, but I’m not going to count on it.
     
  5. amfox1

    amfox1 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Should point out that C's will have the following 2019 first round picks, assuming LAL's pick does not convey:

    better of SAC/PHI (top 1 protected)
    MEM (top 8 protected)
    LAC (top 14 protected)
    BOS
     
  6. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    Hell yeah it is.

    This guy, Mike Gribanov, watches a ton of high school and AAU hoops, so his big board of the senior class + internationals with a 2000 birth year is worth a look. It's from a couple of months ago. Insane that Duke has four of the top five:

    https://www.thestepien.com/2017/11/20/mikes-2019-draft-board/

    I really hope that current juniors will be eligible next year though, sounds like there's some pretty interesting guys that could make the pick more valuable.
     
  7. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    If nothing else the recent trade deadline exhibited the increasing value of ALL first round draft picks.
    Not many teams could match a package Danny could offer for a disgruntled star that needs to be moved from a rebuild situation.
     
    #7 benhogan, Feb 25, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2018
  8. Sprowl

    Sprowl Emile de Becque Dope

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    What has made the difference? It used to be easy to buy a late first-round pick, as Ainge did from Phoenix to pick Rondo. Some teams wanted to unload their late first round picks to avoid the salary slot. What has changed so much that Memphis couldn't unload Tyreke Evans for anything worth having?
     
  9. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    Teams threw too much money around during the cap explosion summers, and the new luxury tax can be kind of onerous if you’re over the line four years out of five, so for a few years anyway there’s going to be a premium on roleplayers making rookie-scale money.
     
  10. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    +1. also add in the teams misjudging their total salary cap, the Stepien Rule, and an excellent 2018 draft pool*.

    *A first round pick in 2019 could also be very valuable if we see the talent pool increase with the end of 1 and done.
     
  11. Kliq

    Kliq Member SoSH Member

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    Theoretically, the first draft with HS Seniors eligible is going to be the most loaded draft in memory. Imagine this years class plus the top four from the Class of 2019.

    Out of the four, Barrett and Reddish I’m pretty sold on as being legit NBA talents.

    Zion and Bol are the prospects I see having the biggest boom or bust potential while playing in college. Every time I watch Zion it looks like he is dribbling around traffic cones. Nobody on the court has the size or athleticism to even consider standing in his way. Obviously playing in then ACC will be a stiffer test; I’m not sure what he does at the NBA level. Yeah he can jump high and throw down some awesome dunks, but so can the guys on the And-1 Mixtape tour. Can he shoot? Defend? Create for others? Rebound? What is his role as an NBA player? ESPN also reported that he gained something like 30 lbs from his junior to senior year; which is kind of a red flag for me.

    Bol has more defined NBA skills; at the least I see him as a big that can run the floor, protect the rim and possibly shoot from outside. However, since he is so outsized for HS basketball he is going to have to show more to me at the NCAA level. Is he really a great shot blocker, or someone that can block a lot of shots when he is a foot taller than everyone else? What is his motor like? Can he score at all inside? I love the Manute Bol story and I’m overjoyed their could be another chapter, but I need to see him play against quality college competition to decide if he’s a top five pick.
     
  12. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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  13. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    I’m going to see if I can find the quote again, but a scout watching the McD ASG practices said that Reddish kept changing form on his jumper. It’ll be a shame if he completely Fultzes his shooting mechanics before getting to Duke. Here’s hoping he gets through it.
     
  14. slamminsammya

    slamminsammya Member SoSH Member

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    Here's hoping that "Fultzing" a shot does not become common usage (for Fultz's sake, I liked your use of it).
     
  15. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    As a Cuse grad I'm absolutely gutted. Bazley was going to be the 3rd top 10 recruit to go to Cuse over the last 25yrs (Carmelo and Donte Greene). Cuse rarely gets the elite recruits and got Bazley after Thad Matta left Ohio State.

    BUT if this also helps motivate (along w/ FBI investigation) the NBA to get rid of 1 and done by next year and stacks the 2019 draft it will take a lot of the sting away.
     
  16. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    That's a silly point of comparison. NBA draft classes vary dramatically year to year. This year actually is one of the most loaded drafts in recent memory. 2019 plus high school seniors will be a strong class but it's highly unlikely to be as strong as this year.
     
    #16 JakeRae, Mar 30, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2018
  17. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    I wonder if this will open the floodgates for these elite players coming out of HS. It's an interesting path to take - sucks for Syracuse for sure - and I am curious to see how many others follow it. If the G league will better prepare you for the NBA, and you don't have to even think about things like school work, why wouldn't you do the G league instead of one year in college? It has to be making others think twice about it.
     
  18. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    G League certainly pays less.
     
  19. PC Drunken Friar

    PC Drunken Friar Member SoSH Member

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    One thing that might hold prospects back is the actual G League. Once a player turns 18, he is eligible for the draft (in October, I believe). Say the Red Claws draft him. They have his "rights" until the actual draft, but the Celtics don't have his rights, ever. Why would the Celtics waste their time, energy and playing time/coaching on a player they won't benefit from and could actually hurt them in the future?

    Now, if it's there are 5 top prospects doing this and shit teams want to get a closer look, there could be some sort of quid pro quo worked out...
     
  20. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    Maybe this opens the door for an independently owned G-League team, based in Las Vegas or Seattle, that has a combination of 1 and done players and players available to all teams?

    Are all G-League teams owned by NBA owners?

    If the G-League improves the level of play maybe they could get a small ESPN TV contract, attain better gates and be able to pay players more than $75K/yr.

    There clearly is an arbitrage between NBA and college hoops that is opening up.
     
  21. Infield Infidel

    Infield Infidel teaching korea american SoSH Member

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    All G-League teams are owned by or affiliated with NBA teams, since the Ft Wayne MadAnts affiliated with the Pacers a couple years ago. It will be weird with draftable players on affiliates, what's the coaching priority, developing your own guys or someone not really in your organization? What if he gets hurt in a G League game?
     
  22. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Where is the inequality toward black HS players versus white HS players for this to be considered racist? Zach Collins and TJ Leaf are both white and they were forced to wait one year until after their HS class graduated prior to being eligible for the NBA draft just like everyone else?

    You can like or dislike the rule but their is no basis to call the rule racist when there is no favoritism toward any race in it.
     
  23. Spelunker

    Spelunker Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    But it disproportionally affects black people. Structurally speaking, do we have similar rules in place in white dominated sports?

    I know those sports aren't in the control of the NBA, and it's making decisions in a vacuum that impact only it. But intent of a rule doesn't have to be racist for the impact to be. We don't need to call the NBA racist (that would be silly) to point out that they have an opportunity to better serve their player demo.
     
  24. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    How does the rule affect these players negatively though? It affects their freedom of choice however their are plenty of laws which do that to 18-year olds outside of sports.

    It isn't as thought these players don't have the same opportunity at 19 as they do at 18 (using the age number as an approximate). I have no problem with it either way.
     
  25. Spelunker

    Spelunker Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    To put it a different way, why is the rule in place?
     
  26. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    For the betterment of the league and its players I would assume. Even McGrady and Kobe were ill-prepared to play in this men's league straight out of HS. The Gerald Green stories are stuff of legend. To claim it "racist" you'd have to show me proof that the rule is costing a black player an NBA roster spot over a white player.

    There are what, 450 roster spots now? Both white and black players are following the same rules of entry and would be replacing someone on the leagues "450-man roster" who could also be white or black.

    What if TJ Leaf was allowing to enter the league out of HS and cost Phil Pressey a job? Is this as likely or less likely than Ayton entering last year and costing Greg Steimsma a job?
     
  27. In my lifetime

    In my lifetime Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Drafts, league age eligibility, rookie salary caps, years of team control, etc. are all in place in every sport including the NHL to the financial detriment of young players. There are many reasons most financially-based, but racism is not one of those reasons unless green is considered a race.
     
  28. TripleOT

    TripleOT Member SoSH Member

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    Maybe racist is the wrong term here, but the NBA rule affects mostly black American athletes. in other major pro sports, like baseball, which is more racially diverse, there is no rule that prohibits HSers to be draft eligible. Around the world, basketball players turn pro in their mid-teens.

    If the NBA did a bad job choosing HSers in the past, that's on them, but for every not-NBA-ready Gerald Green, there are a half dozen college draftees who were also not ready. Did Justice WInslow's one season at Dule make him any more NBA ready? Over half the draftees in a particular year will either be NBA hangers on, or fail to stick in the league. One and done is a total fraud. I'd rather have top level talent like Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons in the league a year early, rather than wasting their time toiling for free in college.
     
  29. Spelunker

    Spelunker Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Exactly. And I think I was making a clear distinction between it being racist in intent and it disproportionally impacting black people.

    Yes, the impetus for it is financial (it's really the NCAA that is the major driver here). But we don't have rules like that in tennis and hockey, and "a system set to get free labor from mostly African Americans" has a bit of a bad taste to it.
     
  30. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    This doesn't make it any better. It still doesn't disproportionally impact black players when there are x number of jobs in the NBA. Whatever pct it is that hypothetical HS player is black is going to equal the pct that the player whose NBA job he is taking is also black. It's not racist and it's doesn't disproportionally affect blacks for that reason.
     
    #30 HomeRunBaker, Apr 3, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2018
  31. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    Why can't there be a "minor league" for pro basketball? Thus creating 2X jobs.

    In fairness the NBA has been slowly addressing this with getting a sponsor, Gatorade, for the Development League. The NBA has poured quite a bit of capital/marketing/time into the WNBA, which has been a money loser. They should devote the same into the G-League, I'd expect the economics to be better. Get them a tv deal, like they did for the WNBA, to expand exposure. Maybe start the G-League in the summer (when there is less TV competition) to create more awareness. PLUS it would get some fringe players prepared earlier for the NBA season (thus creating immediate demand/opportunity for those players).

    There is definitely an arbitrage in the system (NBA/NCAA), a supply of quality/interested players, and a demand from the fans.
     
  32. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    A demand for minor league basketball? From who? Sure there can be a minor league for pro basketball if Silver wants to take on another massive money loser like the WNBA. I expect him to continue branding the G-League as a professional minor league to the NBA while carefully managing its budget but investing in this product on a larger scale to make it even close to breakeven would seem to be pure fantasy. The smaller cities who house these teams don't have the demographics to fill large arenas, the larger cities have NBA/college teams and the consumer today already has access to watch high lottery picks in Europe yet fans don't watch Doncic regularly nor did many watch Zizic, Bender, or Porzingis at all.....despite having the ability to do so. Sadly, I've watched more Omar Cook and Tyrese Rice than I'd like to admit over the past half dozen years.
     
  33. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    I think he's referring to the different rules for Europeans and Americans (i.e. European players just have to turn 19 by the following December 31st while Americans have to be a year removed from high school regardless of age). And the Americans get the extra layer of bureaucracy so that the university system can exploit them for free labor.
     
  34. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    The G League is on TV and it is absolutely awful basketball. It would have less of an audience than the WNBA. It's just 5 guys playing "me basketball" to get noticed by the NBA.

    Also, I'm convinced the 1 and done rule is gone very soon and it was only set in place to save the college game so that the NBA would have a "minor" leagues of some sort. Now that the G league is a true developmental league, there is no need.
     
  35. ConigliarosPotential

    ConigliarosPotential Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    How is the G League a "true developmental league" if everyone is playing awful, me-first basketball? (Genuinely curious.)
     
  36. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I assume he's referring to all 26 G-League teams now having one-to-one affiliations with an NBA franchise. In that sense it is a true minor league.

    This results in coaches who aren't desirable enough to land an NBA assistants job coaching young players who aren't yet desirable enough to be on an NBA teams active roster or be sought after by high level European teams. This equates to a terrible product.
     
  37. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, they're not yet a true minor league as the cap on roster size means too many of the players aren't playing for a chance on the parent club, but to improve their stock for overseas gigs. A true minor league requires an expansion to ten two-way slots so that teams are working with their own guys in the G League.
     
  38. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    This.

    True. Unfortunately, I don't know if we'll ever see that but I don't think they are as reliant on the college game as a feeder league and the quality of competition is still better, despite the product being terrible. It does the job far better than the CBA ever did.
     
    #38 bosox79, Apr 4, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2018
  39. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    The NCAA has issued its report on corruption in college basketball and it looks like they may unilaterally put an end to one-and-done if the NBA doesn’t.

    It looks like the NCAA wants the NBA and the NBPA to adopt the MLB rule where players that go to college are ineligible for the draft until after their junior year. But they have alternate suggestions if the NBA and the NBAPA won’t play ball. Such as making freshman ineligible for varsity ball again.

    It will be interesting to see how the league reacts to this.
     
  40. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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  41. Marbleheader

    Marbleheader Dope Dope

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    The odds next year will be different, as we know. The odds are here:

     
  42. Marbleheader

    Marbleheader Dope Dope

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    Way too early mock on nbadraft.net

    #TeamPlayerHWPSchoolC
    1RJ Barrett6-Jun210SGDukeHSSr.
    2Bruno Fernando10-Jun235CMarylandFr.
    3Nassir Little6-Jun215SFNorth CarolinaHSSr.
    4Sekou Doumbouya9-Jun230SF/PFFranceIntl.
    5Zion Williamson6-Jun260PFDukeHSSr.
    6Rui Hachimura8-Jun225SFGonzagaSo.
    7Cameron Reddish7-Jun210SG/SFDukeHSSr.
    8Nazreon Reid10-Jun250CLSUHSSr.
    9Daniel Gafford11-Jun225PF/CArkansasFr.
    10Kris Wilkes8-Jun205SFUCLAFr.
    11Romeo Langford6-Jun200SGIndianaHSSr.
    12Kellan Grady5-Jun195PGDavidsonFr.
    13Bol Bol2-Jul225COregonHSSr.
    14Lamont West8-Jun230PFWest VirginiaSo.
     
  43. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I always love when they list the player's height by date
     
  44. finnVT

    finnVT Member SoSH Member

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    It was a tall, summer day.
     
  45. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Be cool to compare this at end of year.

    Who're the ones we should pay attention to now?
     
  46. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    Cam Reddish. Until he Fultzed around with his jumper he reminded me a lot of Tatum. I irrationally love Nassir Little because he has that Marcus Smart balls to the wall every second on the floor vibe. Unfortunately he shoots like Marcus too. I still think that Kel Johnson and Romeo Langford are going to be really good NBA players.
     
  47. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    I'm paying attention to RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, and Bol Bol.
     
  48. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    Johnson's defensive upside seems as good as Langford's offense, but Little looks the part of a two-way forward with great length and motor. He was the best player on the court at the McDonald's AA game. If his shot comes around, does he have the size to play stretch 4?

    In addition to the guys already mentioned, there's some interesting bigs to monitor next year- Sekou Doumboya, Simi Shittu, Luka Samanic, Daniel Gafford.
     
  49. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    I’m basically going to watch every Duke game I can, which makes me puke, but that is going to be one interesting team.
     
  50. uk_sox_fan

    uk_sox_fan Member SoSH Member

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    Nevertheless we welcome your support.

    How do people think Zion Williamson’s game might translate in the NBA?
     

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