2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion
- Thread starter jon abbey
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Unlike prior years when this inevitably comes up, the Yankees have enough bullets to rival a M134 Minigun, be it in prospect depth at all levels, or money they're willing to spend.
I wouldn't be shocked if they have Sabathia, two of the aforementioned SP*, Ottavino or Miller, Machado, Gonzalez (versatile, batted ball profile grades out very underrated by Statcast), when it's all said and done.
This is as good of a reminder as any that I need to run some of my own numbers (xwOBACON) on unlucky/market inefficiency bats, since I feel Cashman uses something to evaluate with some overlap based on prior transactions.
Genuinely surprised to see Keuchel isn't on Heyman's list, honestly. Maybe they don't think he's worth giving up the pick for, given the QO?
*Especially Kluber. Yankees seem like they've coveted that absolute ace beyond Severino to match Sale for sometime now. Fits the bill on quite a few levels, and you have to cash some of those prospects in a large trade at some point, right?
I wouldn't be shocked if they have Sabathia, two of the aforementioned SP*, Ottavino or Miller, Machado, Gonzalez (versatile, batted ball profile grades out very underrated by Statcast), when it's all said and done.
This is as good of a reminder as any that I need to run some of my own numbers (xwOBACON) on unlucky/market inefficiency bats, since I feel Cashman uses something to evaluate with some overlap based on prior transactions.
Genuinely surprised to see Keuchel isn't on Heyman's list, honestly. Maybe they don't think he's worth giving up the pick for, given the QO?
*Especially Kluber. Yankees seem like they've coveted that absolute ace beyond Severino to match Sale for sometime now. Fits the bill on quite a few levels, and you have to cash some of those prospects in a large trade at some point, right?
Eovaldi should be on the list too (he was on Sherman's) and ideally they wouldn't add three lefthanders.
But yes, NY needs to add three SPs, two guys at SS/2B/3B and probably two relievers (Robertson/Miller is my guess, maybe Ottavino). Most of those guys are going to come via FA, I don't believe that CLE will trade Kluber to NY for anything close to reasonable.
But yes, NY needs to add three SPs, two guys at SS/2B/3B and probably two relievers (Robertson/Miller is my guess, maybe Ottavino). Most of those guys are going to come via FA, I don't believe that CLE will trade Kluber to NY for anything close to reasonable.
I like hearing that these options are avail. I would empty the upper minor league level talent for Kluber and offer Andujar as well. I am also a huge Paxton fan.
M's are apparently in fire sale mode. The Yankees will get one of these guys via trade if they really are available. Corbin too. Sevy, Paxton/Kluber, Corbin, Tanaka...is a pretty lethal top of the rotation.
I think Cashman is likely to shy away from groundball pitchers with the current state of our infield defense. At least so far as Keuchel & Cahill are concerned.
Paxton is clearly the worst of Kluber, Carrasco, and himself but if we leave the offseason with any of those three + Corbin, I'd be happy if we didn't do a damn thing to improve the offense by not signing Mach or Harp.
Are the Indians blowing it up? If so I understand trading him to NY.
But if they still see themselves as a playoff bound team I don’t see any reason you trade kluber or carrasco to NY unless no NL team is offering anything of quality value.
But if they still see themselves as a playoff bound team I don’t see any reason you trade kluber or carrasco to NY unless no NL team is offering anything of quality value.
I think it would be a re-tooling more than a blow-up. That bullpen requires a rebuild and they need to address OF/3B. Next year's payroll is projected to be a club record at ~$145M with arb raises, so it's likely they will need to shed payroll and/or acquire pieces by trade. They didn't even give Brantley a qualifying offer after a nearly 4 WAR season. Something like Carrasco + Kipnis saves ~$24M in 2019. They could also move on from Yan Gomes and save another ~ $9M.
If Carrasco gets you something like Andujar + (Sheffield + a lower minors prospect?), that sets the Indians up with a lot of cost controlled talent.
SS: Lindor (3 years, arb eligible 2019)
2B: Jose Ramirez (5/$46M!!!)
3B: Andujar (pre arb, 5 years)
OF: Tyler Naquin (pre arb, 5 years)
OF: Bradley Zimmer (pre arb, 6 years)
SP: Kluber (3/$53M)
SP: Bauer (3 years, arb eligible 2019)
SP: Clevinger (4 years, arb eligible 2020)
SP: Sheffield (pre arb, 6 years)
RP: Brad Hand (3/$24M)
That makes me happy. Sabathia and Gardner back for one more ride is nice.
Edit: So, Sabathia could go over 250 wins this season. Does that get him into the Hall of Fame? Low wins, but I don't know what the new threshold for wins is these days.
Edit: So, Sabathia could go over 250 wins this season. Does that get him into the Hall of Fame? Low wins, but I don't know what the new threshold for wins is these days.
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Andujar + Sheffield + ? might be equitable from a value perspective, but I can't see Cleveland trading one of their studs without getting bona fide outfield help back. Zimmer took a step back last year and then hurt his shoulder and is out until at least May, and Naquin is a fourth outfielder at best. All they have is Leonys Martin, a 31-year-old platoon guy who literally almost died from a bacterial infection a couple months ago.
I personally think there is close to zero chance that CLE moves Kluber or Carrasco to one of the other three AL powerhouses, but in that proposal Andujar could be moved to a corner outfield spot.
Gary Sanchez is having surgery on his left shoulder per Cashman. He said he's going to be ready for Opening Day.
Three month recovery time, they say, and it's evidently been bothering him since 2017.
Wishful thinking, but I hope his bum shoulder partly explains his crap mobility behind the plate and this surgery helps improve that.
On today's episode of High Heat on the MLB Network, Mad Dog Russo proposed that the Yankees execute an Andujar, Sheffield & Frazier for Kluber deal.
I’d offer that. Sign Machado and Corbin and those prospects won’t be missed one bit.
This makes total sense and there shouldn't be an offer that beats it. Yankees do this and sign Happ and Marwin Gonzalez and they're all set for next season
Because based on what the Steinbrenner sons have done since they've taken control they won't lock themselves into A-Rod type contracts unless a situation like Stanton presents itself. They will spend money this offseason, but the days of them doing multiple 10+ year deals are over.
A defensive liability with no position and a player with a history of concussions. Cleveland can do better than Andujar/Frazier. They should be looking for a Chris Sale type return.
We'll see, if there's ever been a time to really go for it financially, it is the way NY is currently positioned. If they don't sign Machado and they trade Andujar, they had better at least sign Donaldson.
Again, operating under the assumption that Andujar shouldn't be playing 3B, NY still needs 2 SPs, 2 infielders, and 2 relievers. If they don't go nuts financially this winter, it retroactively makes a lot of decisions from the past two years a lot dumber, which is why I think this is what they will do in the end.
Again, operating under the assumption that Andujar shouldn't be playing 3B, NY still needs 2 SPs, 2 infielders, and 2 relievers. If they don't go nuts financially this winter, it retroactively makes a lot of decisions from the past two years a lot dumber, which is why I think this is what they will do in the end.
You're ignoring Sheffield there, plus spinning every component in the worst possible way. Also, Kluber is 6 years older than Sale was when he was dealt to BOS. I think those three are probably an overpay by NY in a vacuum but could see it making sense depending on what else they have planned.
I have been saying this to my Yankees fan friends for awhile. Frazier is a former top 100 guy with a long history of concussion trouble. I dont think anyone really thinks of him as a valuable piece this offseason, until he comes back and plays well in AAA for at least a half season. I would say he is a great mid-season chip for you guys but he isn't going to be a key part of any deal.
Why would the Indians even want Andujar? Alonso wasnt a terrible 1B, and he is signed cheaply through 2020. Encarnacion is still on the team next season, and Andujar obviously isnt going to replace Ramirez. Any trade for an elite pitcher is going to center around Sheffield, prob one of Abreu/Loaisiga and Florial. Kluber is signed pretty cheaply for the next three years. When the Red Sox got Sale, Moncada was the number 1 prospect in the game and Kopech was what, top 15? If you want Kluber you will have to pay handsomely for him. Andujar would need to be a good defensive 1B and at least maintain his .850+ OPS to be a "star" at 1b, and there are serious concerns about Frazier being able to play moving forward, and what is his ceiling? Josh Reddick?
Paxton has another two years of control as well, so while you may be able to use Frazier as piece 2 or 3 in a deal, any trade will need to have Sheffield in it, and probably one of your lower ranked pitching arms. I could see Sheffield, Frazier, and Acevedo for Paxton.
Why would the Indians even want Andujar? Alonso wasnt a terrible 1B, and he is signed cheaply through 2020. Encarnacion is still on the team next season, and Andujar obviously isnt going to replace Ramirez. Any trade for an elite pitcher is going to center around Sheffield, prob one of Abreu/Loaisiga and Florial. Kluber is signed pretty cheaply for the next three years. When the Red Sox got Sale, Moncada was the number 1 prospect in the game and Kopech was what, top 15? If you want Kluber you will have to pay handsomely for him. Andujar would need to be a good defensive 1B and at least maintain his .850+ OPS to be a "star" at 1b, and there are serious concerns about Frazier being able to play moving forward, and what is his ceiling? Josh Reddick?
Paxton has another two years of control as well, so while you may be able to use Frazier as piece 2 or 3 in a deal, any trade will need to have Sheffield in it, and probably one of your lower ranked pitching arms. I could see Sheffield, Frazier, and Acevedo for Paxton.
Not exactly arguing with any of that because we don't really know how teams value prospects, but Frazier does not have a 'long history of concussion trouble'. He ran into the wall in spring training last year, was out for a while, came back and dominated AAA for a couple hundred ABs, and then had concussion symptoms again and was out for the year. I'm almost positive he never had any issues before last season.
Also people should stop equating Sale and Kluber, Sale was six years younger when that deal happened, Kluber is 33 and his average velocity has dropped each of the last four seasons (not massively, but still).
And some people think Andujar will end up in LF, his bat is certainly legit and if it doesn't work out in the field, he could replace Encarnacion at DH in 2020 and beyond.
Also people should stop equating Sale and Kluber, Sale was six years younger when that deal happened, Kluber is 33 and his average velocity has dropped each of the last four seasons (not massively, but still).
And some people think Andujar will end up in LF, his bat is certainly legit and if it doesn't work out in the field, he could replace Encarnacion at DH in 2020 and beyond.
Yeah I'd love to hear what our NYY fan contingent thinks because my sense is they'll sign Corbin and the trade will be for someone in the mold of their Eovaldi trade from '14, a younger undervalued asset. Cashman is amazing at sniffing those guys out, as Voit is another great example.
Maybe I'm crazy too but if CLE wants to keep in contention I can't see them wanting to ship either chip to New York unless it is a blowout offer, which I guess it may be. Cashman doesn't seem to trade that way often, but again, I could be wrong and would love to hear what others think on that.
I do think he'll go big on a couple of the relievers on the market.
Maybe I'm crazy too but if CLE wants to keep in contention I can't see them wanting to ship either chip to New York unless it is a blowout offer, which I guess it may be. Cashman doesn't seem to trade that way often, but again, I could be wrong and would love to hear what others think on that.
I do think he'll go big on a couple of the relievers on the market.
I think whether or not NY trades for one of those three rumored SPs (Kluber, Carrasco, Paxton), they will need to sign a bunch of FAs (1-2 infielders, at least 1 SP, 1-2 relievers) and that will help free up some of the younger players as potential trade chips.
^fair enough on the "long history", but I do think teams will be wary of him as a big piece though, since he is just so recently removed from it. And considering how frequently these things can become recurring, I just dont think teams see him as an extremely valuable piece.
While the Sale/Kluber comp certainly isn't perfect, Kluber has been absolutely dominant the last two years, and his lowest bWAR of the last 5 years is 4.4 in 2015. He has two 8 bWAR seasons in that time frame, and I think that the fact that Sheffield is a "worse" prospect than Kopech, the second tier prospect involved in the Sale trade, compensates for the age concerns. So yea, I dont think Kluber is worth a package like Kyle Tucker/Forrest Whitley(or idk Tatis/Gore), but I think the Indians would demand at least 2 top 50 prospects plus some high upside pitchers in order to trade him. If Kluber is on the block and being aggressively shopped there are a lot of teams that are gonna go after him.
Paxton's stats arent as great as I was thinking(I was still thinking of the one dominant stretch he had to start the year), but I would still think they demand Sheffield+.
While the Sale/Kluber comp certainly isn't perfect, Kluber has been absolutely dominant the last two years, and his lowest bWAR of the last 5 years is 4.4 in 2015. He has two 8 bWAR seasons in that time frame, and I think that the fact that Sheffield is a "worse" prospect than Kopech, the second tier prospect involved in the Sale trade, compensates for the age concerns. So yea, I dont think Kluber is worth a package like Kyle Tucker/Forrest Whitley(or idk Tatis/Gore), but I think the Indians would demand at least 2 top 50 prospects plus some high upside pitchers in order to trade him. If Kluber is on the block and being aggressively shopped there are a lot of teams that are gonna go after him.
Paxton's stats arent as great as I was thinking(I was still thinking of the one dominant stretch he had to start the year), but I would still think they demand Sheffield+.
Yeah, I agree with all of this, Paxton is very good when healthy but he is not healthy too often. He just turned 30 this week and last year was the first time he broke 150 innings in the bigs.
Yeah the Eovaldi '14 example isn't great because he wasn't any kind of difference maker then, but I think we agree, I think they have pieces to get someone younger and really good that we're not thinking of/ talking about. Taillon, Freeland or Marquez, that kind of thing (those are totally off the top of my head).
Should be fun to watch.
I’m going to say Carrasco shouldn’t be an option given his presumed prospect cost, just two years of control, and his horrendous numbers against BOS in 4 starts in the last three seasons, 20 ERs in 17 innings for a 10.59 ERA. Too bad, his numbers in general are fantastic.
Interesting, Paxton is who I prefer anyway. I know he is injury prone but he just needs to be healthy for the playoffs.
Bryce Harper just moved to LIC in the same building as a few of my friends (and a couple of Mets). Interesting decision on his part.