2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion

Gash Prex

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I don’t follow quite as closely on the Yankees, but I would be looking to trade a high upside/proven cheap player for top flight pitching - imo the Yankees need some serious pitching talent. I don’t think Severino and Tanaka get it done and I don’t like the FA pitchers.

I would then replace that young talent with higher cost but proven FA like a Machado or Harper

Given the Yankees resources financially, I think they need to reallocate to starting pitching.

Unless they trade some players, I don’t see how Machado or Harper fit on the team.
 

jon abbey

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Machado fits pretty easily at either SS (Didi is out for most or all of the year and a FA after that) or 3B (Andujar is horrendous defensively). Andujar would make a nice full-time DH but I agree there's a good chance he'll be moved for pitching.
 

RedOctober3829

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Machado fits pretty easily at either SS (Didi is out for most or all of the year and a FA after that) or 3B (Andujar is horrendous defensively). Andujar would make a nice full-time DH but I agree there's a good chance he'll be moved for pitching.
They could also include Aaron Hicks in a deal for pitching if they want to go after Harper. Gardner is signed as the 4th OF, so Hicks is expendable.
 

jon abbey

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They could also include Aaron Hicks in a deal for pitching if they want to go after Harper. Gardner is signed as the 4th OF, so Hicks is expendable.
Hicks is also a potential FA after 2019, but if you are suggesting an OF of Stanton/Judge/Harper, that is pretty scary defensively.
 

Gash Prex

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Machado fits pretty easily at either SS (Didi is out for most or all of the year and a FA after that) or 3B (Andujar is horrendous defensively). Andujar would make a nice full-time DH but I agree there's a good chance he'll be moved for pitching.
Ok - I suppose my "doesn't fit" is more a "not a good allocation of resources"
 

jon abbey

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The thing is that if by 'resources' you mean 'ability to spend', they really could go nuts this year, go through every penalty level, absorb the penalties and worry about the long-term cap issues later. They're not as deep (back end of the 40 man) as they have been the last year or two so it's going to be hard to make big trades unless it's accompanied by a lot of free-agent spending.
 

jon abbey

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Arizona offered Corbin a qualifying offer. He’s gonna cost a pick.
I don’t think it works that way anymore, I think the original team gets a pick dependent on contract size and the signing team’s record, but I don’t think teams lose picks anymore (and am too lazy this second to doublecheck that).
 

EvilEmpire

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On top of it being a stronger positional need, the lack of a qualifying offer is another reason to prefer Machado over Harper. I'd be pretty happy if they could get Machado, Corbin and Eovaldi.
 

jon abbey

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A very minor move but NY claimed 26 year old Dominican infielder Hanser Alberto from Texas because they have a bunch of 40 man space, that puts them at 37. Alberto is known as a defender first and played all four infield positions for TEX in AAA and MLB this past season, and he showed some contact skills this season, only 28 Ks in 361 ABs, 58 RBIs and a .797 OPS which put him in 29th among qualifiers in the evidently-not-a-crazy-hitters-league-for-once PCL.

He can't be optioned without being exposed so he might not be around too long, but for now he is in the mix with Wade and Torreyes and Estrada and Kyle Holder (the guy who gets compared to guys named Ozzie defensively), there are two of three spots currently open at 2B/SS/backup, Gleyber will cover one of the first two. Also I hope they consider Hechevarria, you can't have too much spectacular infield play.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=l112&player_id=593643
 

jon abbey

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jon abbey

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So as I've said earlier, if I were in Cashman's shoes, I would go nuts in FA this winter. Right now Cot's has them around $166M for tax purposes, so I'm wondering just how high all of the moves I'd like them to make would put them. Obviously my numbers are guesswork, just wanted to run through this and see how possible or ridiculous it was:

FAs signed:

Machado-10/280
Corbin-4/80
Eovaldi-4/72
Sabathia-1/10
Robertson-2/20
Andrew Miller-2/20

Also I have them trading Sonny Gray plus a prospect or two for Scooter Gennett. Both are FAs after 2019, both are scheduled to receive almost the same salary in arbitration, and Gennett is blocking Nick Senzel, plus Gray somehow had a 3.14 road ERA last year and his Vanderbilt pitching coach just took the same job in Cincinnati.

So this would be that team:

Hicks-CF
Judge-RF
Machado-SS or 3B
Stanton-LF
Andujar-DH
Sanchez-C
Gennett-2B
Voit/Bird-1B
Gleyber-3B or SS

Rotation: Severino, Corbin, Tanaka, Eovaldi, Sabathia (Sheffield, Loaisiga, German in AAA or maybe one as the long man)
Bullpen: ???, Tarpley, Green, Miller, Robertson, Betances, Chapman

Bench: Gardner, Romine, ???, Bird/Voit (Clint Frazier is getting regular ABs in AAA in this scenario)

That is obviously a ridiculously loaded team on paper, and would put NY at around $262M so over the highest level ($246M). There are two possibilities to bring it lower without impacting the team listed above, Didi is set to make around $12-13M in his last year of arb and will not be available for the bulk of the season if at all. It would be super cold-hearted and I love the guy, but they could non-tender him. Secondly, Ellsbury's deal is now down to essentially 2/48 (22/22/4) and it's possible that Cashman could get someone to take that by bundling prospects with him (an amped up version of the Headley/Mitchell for nothing to SD deal last winter).

I'm not saying this is likely, it is pretty financially aggressive, but I also think it's time for NY to go for it after holding back for the last few seasons. Also it doesn't make much sense to focus so much on resetting your tax rate unless you plan to really blast through the lowest level in the future (which is $206M this year),
 

Cesar Crespo

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I have a hard time believing Harper will get anywhere close to the amount he wants. He's mostly one dimensional and that one dimension is inconsistent and prone to the shift. Up until this past season, he was a league average RF so maybe his time in CF really hurt his dWAR. He also has some weird odd year/even year performance going on that would make Josh Beckett blush.

With all the talk about Machado's defense at SS, he somehow managed to finish with a 0 dWAR and we all know how good he is at 3b. He's a more complete player and can add value when he isn't hitting. He's also the much better fit for the Yankees.

I'm not even sure why they'd be in on Harper honestly. He's not a fit. Machado makes all the sense in the world.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Jon - The Cot's number you're looking at is not the luxury tax number (they have a separate tab for that). Variance looks about $5-10m

I don't think Cashman would spend $20m on the bullpen and $10m on Sabathia if they're going nuts with the top guys. Part of the reason for the monster bullpen last year was the lack of pitching and pitchers who went deep. A bolstered rotation should negate the need for two big additions in the pen, at least via FA. There are always arms available at the deadline. I prefer that approach to buying a questionable arm like Miller.

I also think it's hard to gauge the market for Eovaldi because he could be pretty sought after. Is the lottery ticket worth $15-18m? Really tough question to answer.

Leaving the top two on your list alone, I'm curious if we think our defense can support groundball pitchers like Cahill who have high upside and won't cost too much. I prefer Cahill to Sabathia at this point in their careers. Signing Gardner in some ways makes me think that Cashman will be comfortable letting CC go.
 

Apisith

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I agree that Corbin won’t be going for anything near 4/$80m. He was worth nearly 5 wins last year and the peripherals were excellent. His FIP was below 3. I’m guessing he’ll get something closer to 5/$135m.
 

E5 Yaz

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Andrew Miller seems to be trending downhill. Knee problem?
He's been breaking down the past couple of years, so on one hand he's a bit of a risk.

OTOH, relievers careers are so elastic that he could still have a prime-level 2-3 years in him
 

Murderer's Crow

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I agree that Corbin won’t be going for anything near 4/$80m. He was worth nearly 5 wins last year and the peripherals were excellent. His FIP was below 3. I’m guessing he’ll get something closer to 5/$135m.
It'll be somewhere in the middle. Teams are smarter than they used to be and Corbin doesn't have the track record. My guess is he wants to touch $100m and they'll be asking for 5/125.
 

chawson

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So as I've said earlier, if I were in Cashman's shoes, I would go nuts in FA this winter. Right now Cot's has them around $166M for tax purposes, so I'm wondering just how high all of the moves I'd like them to make would put them. Obviously my numbers are guesswork, just wanted to run through this and see how possible or ridiculous it was:

FAs signed:

Machado-10/280
Corbin-4/80
Eovaldi-4/72
Sabathia-1/10
Robertson-2/20
Andrew Miller-2/20

Also I have them trading Sonny Gray plus a prospect or two for Scooter Gennett. Both are FAs after 2019, both are scheduled to receive almost the same salary in arbitration, and Gennett is blocking Nick Senzel, plus Gray somehow had a 3.14 road ERA last year and his Vanderbilt pitching coach just took the same job in Cincinnati.

So this would be that team:

Hicks-CF
Judge-RF
Machado-SS or 3B
Stanton-LF
Andujar-DH
Sanchez-C
Gennett-2B
Voit/Bird-1B
Gleyber-3B or SS

Rotation: Severino, Corbin, Tanaka, Eovaldi, Sabathia (Sheffield, Loaisiga, German in AAA or maybe one as the long man)
Bullpen: ???, Tarpley, Green, Miller, Robertson, Betances, Chapman

Bench: Gardner, Romine, ???, Bird/Voit (Clint Frazier is getting regular ABs in AAA in this scenario)

That is obviously a ridiculously loaded team on paper, and would put NY at around $262M so over the highest level ($246M). There are two possibilities to bring it lower without impacting the team listed above, Didi is set to make around $12-13M in his last year of arb and will not be available for the bulk of the season if at all. It would be super cold-hearted and I love the guy, but they could non-tender him. Secondly, Ellsbury's deal is now down to essentially 2/48 (22/22/4) and it's possible that Cashman could get someone to take that by bundling prospects with him (an amped up version of the Headley/Mitchell for nothing to SD deal last winter).

I'm not saying this is likely, it is pretty financially aggressive, but I also think it's time for NY to go for it after holding back for the last few seasons. Also it doesn't make much sense to focus so much on resetting your tax rate unless you plan to really blast through the lowest level in the future (which is $206M this year),
I think Corbin/Sabathia/Robertson seems almost certain. Happ feels like a new Pettitte but with Corbin a lock maybe they think that's too many innings thrown by LHP. I also agree that Corbin's projection is a little low.

Gray for Gennett would be a pretty slick move for Cash. I could see Yankee fans taking to a lil slugger named Scooter the same way they took to Didi. Cincy's not contending in 2019, and I'd think they'd be better off selling a year of a 4-5 win player for better prospects/more control, but they're one of the three hardest FOs to predict for me. I could see Gray flipped for to Milwaukee for Eric Thames, who should probably DH.

I could be wholly inventing this, but I thought I remembered some semi-salty experience Eovaldi had with the Yanks. In any case, I'd be shocked if he went back. I could see becoming a legend with a team in a rivalry and then joining the other side of a rivalry (Damon, Ellsbury, Uribe, Fowler), but I'm not sure it's worth destroying that legend status to make that leap twice (without an enormous overbid). Entirely intangible logic, though. FWIW, I see him signing with Houston.
 

jon abbey

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NY had a severe 40 man crunch at that point, so it didn't make sense to keep him on the 40 man for a year-plus before he was ready to pitch (all of 2017 and part of 2018) especially since he had only been OK for them, nothing exceptional.
 

terrynever

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NY had a severe 40 man crunch at that point, so it didn't make sense to keep him on the 40 man for a year-plus before he was ready to pitch (all of 2017 and part of 2018) especially since he had only been OK for them, nothing exceptional.
Here is the story from the day the Yankees released Eovaldi and added six prospects to the 40-man including Andujar, Mateo and Gallegos. Not second-guessing here. 40-man roster decisions are the toughest debates that an organization makes every year, especially when the farm system is loaded with talent.
Eovaldi is still considered a pitcher prone to breaking down, mostly because of the muscular frame and max effort. He is a workout freak.

https://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yankees-add-six-players-to-40-man-roster-1.12639441
 
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jon abbey

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Joel Sherman did the same kind of FA NY prediction as me just now, let's see who does better (he of course has the advantage of actually being able to talk to everyone he knows in the organization, heh):

"I don’t think the Yankees will overreact. But they will act. Boldly. I believe they will stay away for sure from Harper, whom they have never seemed infatuated with, and probably fellow free agent Manny Machado as well. I expect this will be a spread-a-lot-around offseason as they did after 2008, when they invested $423.5 million on A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira or five years later when it was $458 million on Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Masahiro Tanaka.

Another five years have passed and I would be surprised if the Yanks did not add at least two starters with the expected suspects being free agents Patrick Corbin, Nathan Eovaldi, J.A. Happ or a trade for an Indian such as Carlos Carrasco or Corey Kluber.

They will work to keep their bullpen strong with at least one and possibly two, with Andrew Miller, Adam Ottavino and David Robertson offering enticement. To weather Didi Gregorius’ at least half-season absence they probably will try to find a versatile lefty bat, with switch-hitter Marwin Gonzalez particularly attractive and retaining Neil Walker a potential fallback."

https://nypost.com/2018/11/04/yankees-not-only-club-desperate-to-change-divisions-narrative/

I think we're very similar on the pitching moves, interesting to not see Britton listed there (I concur) and nice to see Eovaldi up there. Ottavino grew up a Yankee fan in NY, as did Corbin.

Where we differ is they absolutely need to bring in two guys for 2B/SS/3B as Didi is out for at least 3-4 months and can't be counted on at all and Andujar is a DH, two new guys plus Gleyber. Machado just makes too much sense even at the price, but if not him at least Donaldson, a DonaldsonMarwin duo could work if they don't want/get Machado.

Also I think he is right about the $400-500M total outlay (at least) but you're not getting to that without one of Machado/Harper. And if it's Harper, that likely means Judge goes to LF, Stanton is the DH so Andujar is either gone or back to butchering third. FWIW, Andujar is 2 1/2 years younger than Harper and has a career .863 OPS, Harper's is .900, .889 this past year. They certainly could use a big lefty bat amidst all those righties, but Machado hits RHP as well as LHP and Andujar really seems like he could have a special bat (I came out of spring training last year thinking Gary Sheffield, now I am more towards Alfonso Soriano, but those two hit 900 HRs between them, that is exalted company), Machado just seems like so much of a better fit. I still prefer Machado/Gennett to Donaldson/Marwin but either would be solid moves.
 

simplicio

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It'll be somewhere in the middle. Teams are smarter than they used to be and Corbin doesn't have the track record. My guess is he wants to touch $100m and they'll be asking for 5/125.
I think his track record when healthy points toward a 3 WAR floor with massive upside. Plus he's the clear best FA starter available and only one of 3 on the right side of 30. I say his camp starts proceedings at $150m+.

(fwiw, MLBTR projects him to NY at 6/129)
 

jon abbey

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(FWIW, doofus Jim Bowden on The Athletic this AM projects him to NY at 5/90)
 

jon abbey

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He has Andrew Miller at 2/22 also, you can add him to the above four.
 

sean1562

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Shit I’d hope the Sox would be in on Corbin if that is his price. He has to get more than that
 

Murderer's Crow

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Yankees general manager Brian Cashman met with reporters today and expressed a desire to re-sign lefty CC Sabathia while also adding that “a lot” of teams have reached out to express trade interest in Sonny Gray
 

jon abbey

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Dan Federico, who follows the NY organization year-round as a writer (more the minors than the majors), tweeted:

"Source: The Yankees have expressed interest in Bryce Harper as a first baseman. They have reached out to Nationals execs about his makeup and willingness to move positions. Aren’t completely sold on Voit (“could be a September fluke”), lost a lot of hope in Bird"

I think that is investigating options more than anything, but who knows. At least Federico is an actual reporter with an actual source (right or wrong) who has a track record regarding Yankee moves.

 

RedOctober3829

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Dan Federico, who follows the NY organization year-round as a writer (more the minors than the majors), tweeted:

"Source: The Yankees have expressed interest in Bryce Harper as a first baseman. They have reached out to Nationals execs about his makeup and willingness to move positions. Aren’t completely sold on Voit (“could be a September fluke”), lost a lot of hope in Bird"

I think that is investigating options more than anything, but who knows. At least Federico is an actual reporter with an actual source (right or wrong) who has a track record regarding Yankee moves.

Harper was seen multiple times taking grounders at 1B during early work and BP this year.
 

jon abbey

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Obviously Harper is an upgrade on Voit, but $300M worth? I guess that would free up DH for Voit (I have Stanton as the everyday LF) and they could move Andujar for pitching, have I mentioned how glad I am that I am not the one making these decisions?
 

Murderer's Crow

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Obviously Harper is an upgrade on Voit, but $300M worth? I guess that would free up DH for Voit (I have Stanton as the everyday LF) and they could move Andujar for pitching, have I mentioned how glad I am that I am not the one making these decisions?
Do we have any idea what the market for Kluber looks like? Not saying this is a fit for Cle but I wonder what a package centered around Andujar looks like. Would Andujar, Sheffield, and fillers get it done?
 

EvilEmpire

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I really don't see a need for Harper on this team at the kind of price he will get. Even if they aren't sold on Voit, I think they can come up with cheaper options at 1B that will work just fine. I understand due diligence though.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I get being skeptical about Voit and Bird's stock cratering, but Harper at 1B is a stretch and a half to me
 

jon abbey

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Maybe one possible option they are considering is Harper this year and Arenado or Rendon next because Manny's bullshit turned them off from the giant commitment, but you have two holes to fill this year at 2B/SS/3B* and you are not guaranteed those guys will even get to FA, plus Machado plays SS too, those other two just 3B. Harper would fit really well in the middle of all of those righties, and they have had issues with hard throwing righty SPs the last two years (Verlander, Eovaldi).

*Cashman seriously mentioned Thairo Estrada as a current 2B option tonight in a MLBN interview, the fairly talented 22 year old (on at least one top 100 list coming into this season) who got shot in the hip at home in Venezuela in February and barely played all season and has barely played in AAA. He currently is rocking a .597 OPS in Arizona and I'm sure Cashman would like to move him and clear the 40 man space hence the mention, I guess good job by him not laughing out loud on national TV. The bullet is still in there, FWIW.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Some more context from the ESPN article on Gray

Cashman already is deep in talks to trade Sonny Gray, just 15-16 since New York acquired him from Oakland in July 2017. Gray, a right-hander who turns 29 this week, was unhappy with the harsh treatment he was given by demanding Yankees fans.

"The game's evolved to the point where people can see what the real numbers are behind the numbers and the recognition that whoever winds up acquiring Sonny Gray is going to acquire someone that's going to be the player, the pitcher he was more with Oakland," Cashman said. "And so we're very active in those discussions. We're in name exchanges. It will lead us eventually to a conclusion."

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25189213/new-york-yankees-gm-says-team-wants-bring-back-cc-sabathia-ja-happ
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I don’t even understand what he’s trying to say there. This legit isn’t a Sox can butting his nose into your thread is that just basically ‘I promise he will pitch better elsewhere’?
 

jon abbey

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I don’t even understand what he’s trying to say there. This legit isn’t a Sox can butting his nose into your thread is that just basically ‘I promise he will pitch better elsewhere’?
One thing is he had a 3.14 ERA on the road, another is the velocity difference between his pitches got much wider (and hence more effective) after he was moved to the bullpen.
 

jon abbey

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I talked about Thairo Estrada a few posts up, Lindsay Adler of The Athletic just posted a big piece about him. It turns out that NY shut him down in June in order for him to have a second surgery in his hip where they actually did remove the bullet (this was not announced until now), and now in Arizona he has been getting back to where he was athletically before he was shot. So a bit more legit than I thought but still nowhere near being able to start for NY, I think.