2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion

edoug

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I think not as much in this case, this one will be at least partly the 'explain your occasional lack of hustle and dirty play before we give you $300M' tour.
I'm sure he'll be able to convince his suitors he'll be good for now on.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Good article. Thanks for posting that. I know Sherman said there was tension between the Marlins and Yankees' front offices, but with Denbo in Miami, the information gap (as discussed in the article for those who haven't clicked) has to be a good bit smaller than with most teams. I wonder how much of a difference that makes in working out a deal.
The article includes a fun list of every player who was traded as a top-50 prospect sorted by WAR accrued during their first six seasons. The top two are Kenny Lofton and Jeff Bagwell in a near-tie. Then a pretty big gap before Hanley at number three. But number four was a huge surprise and relevant to this thread as he was traded away by Cashman.

It's Austin Jackson!
 

jon abbey

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Two way deals are hard enough to figure out but I would really go for it for Thor, as high as maybe Andujar, Loaisiga, Abreu, and Freicer Perez, plus they take back Todd Frazier's 1/8.5 deal back. I would even go higher than that to put it over the top, maybe toss in one of the teenager hitters everyone loves, Pereira or Cabello, they have a bunch. Also, they want RHH, so Clint Frazier could be in there too, many ways to go and that's not even getting to Florial. No young player except Gleyber is off the table for me in this deal, depending on the combo, come on Brian.

I would love to know Cashman's plan if Happ signs with PHI and he cannot finish a deal for Syndergaard or Kluber (both always long shots), he has to have someone in his pocket who he likes more than Happ. Greinke? Morton?
 

Murderer's Crow

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Two way deals are hard enough to figure out but I would really go for it for Thor, as high as maybe Andujar, Loaisiga, Abreu, and Freicer Perez, plus they take back Todd Frazier's 1/8.5 deal back. I would even go higher than that to put it over the top, maybe toss in one of the teenager hitters everyone loves, Pereira or Cabello, they have a bunch. Also, they want RHH, so Clint Frazier could be in there too, many ways to go and that's not even getting to Florial. No young player except Gleyber is off the table for me in this deal, depending on the combo, come on Brian.

I would love to know Cashman's plan if Happ signs with PHI and he cannot finish a deal for Syndergaard or Kluber (both always long shots), he has to have someone in his pocket who he likes more than Happ. Greinke? Morton?
Full agreement. Everyone except Torres and give us Frazier. We know we have to overpay, do it.
 

Murderer's Crow

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At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Cash is literally talking about fishing


Brian Cashman: “I’ve got a lot of lines out. We’re still fishing. We’re trying to catch a very particular type of fish in very particular types of categories. If not, we’ll bring the boat back to dock and set ‘er back out tomorrow, drop our lines again.”
 

Apisith

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Jeter becoming and owner of the Marlins and sending the Yankees Stanton and Thor is truly truly unbelievable can't script stuff.
Although Stanton’s contract has an AAV of only $22m, he is close to reaching a point where he’s a liability to the Yankees, given the fact that they seem reluctant to spend big money. He had a decent year last year (4 wins per bref) but it was a down year power wise. He had the second lowest OPS+ of his career excepting his rookie year. It could get ugly fast.

2019 will be his age 29 season. Players peak around 26-29 so he’s at the tail end of his peak. I think it’s a worry because it seems like Cashman doesn’t want to spend a crazy amount.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Although Stanton’s contract has an AAV of only $22m, he is close to reaching a point where he’s a liability to the Yankees, given the fact that they seem reluctant to spend big money. He had a decent year last year (4 wins per bref) but it was a down year power wise. He had the second lowest OPS+ of his career excepting his rookie year. It could get ugly fast.

2019 will be his age 29 season. Players peak around 26-29 so he’s at the tail end of his peak. I think it’s a worry because it seems like Cashman doesn’t want to spend a crazy amount.
:eyeroll:
 

jon abbey

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Although Stanton’s contract has an AAV of only $22m, he is close to reaching a point where he’s a liability to the Yankees, given the fact that they seem reluctant to spend big money. He had a decent year last year (4 wins per bref) but it was a down year power wise. He had the second lowest OPS+ of his career excepting his rookie year. It could get ugly fast.

2019 will be his age 29 season. Players peak around 26-29 so he’s at the tail end of his peak. I think it’s a worry because it seems like Cashman doesn’t want to spend a crazy amount.
Disagree that they seem reluctant to spend big money, Cashman just has specific ways he is willing to do it. They will almost certainly be adding 4-5 guys (1-2 SPs, 2 relievers, 1-2 infielders) still so I don't get why people feel a need to rush to judgment in the middle of things.

And I expect a bounceback year at least to some extent from Stanton now that he is settled in, but we'll see. Either way, $22M for him isn't stopping NY from doing anything they want, they could have a rotation of Judge/Stanton/Harper in LF/RF/DH but the presence of Judge and Stanton makes that not the best use of assets. If they don't get Machado and Harper is still out there, maybe he will reconsider but I doubt it. A lefty bat like Harper breaking up Judge and Stanton in the lineup is a pretty insane thought though, not a bad fallback position if it happened (very doubtful).
 

jon abbey

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Brian Cashman: “I’ve got a lot of lines out. We’re still fishing. We’re trying to catch a very particular type of fish in very particular types of categories. If not, we’ll bring the boat back to dock and set ‘er back out tomorrow, drop our lines again.”
He is impressively calm for a man whose career will end up being judged at least in part on how this next month or two goes.
 

hbk72777

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The morons of twitter have me rolling with "They'll go an extra year for Happ, but not Corbin"

Yeah, a 3rd year at whatever Happ is signing for (won't be 20 million) vs a 6th year at 24 million (back-loaded, but I averaged it to be fair)
 

hbk72777

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If this is what the Marlins are asking for Realmuto, I can see why the Yanks said "F it" and signed Happ
 

jon abbey

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Is that really all that unfair of a trade? Dodgers get the better player, Marlins get more control.
I honestly don't see why Realmuto is in this much demand given the FA alternatives. He might be the best catcher in baseball right now but I don't think there's a big difference between him and the next group of guys, and a few of them are available.
 

hbk72777

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Seeing the crybabies of twitter, this tweet is one example of how many of them are only casual fans at best

 

jon abbey

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I honestly don't see why Realmuto is in this much demand given the FA alternatives. He might be the best catcher in baseball right now but I don't think there's a big difference between him and the next group of guys, and a few of them are available.
Here is a very good article answering my own question, the main reason being that he has the highest split between home and road wOBA since 2002, .291 at home and .364 on the road.

https://www.mlb.com/news/jt-realmuto-is-incredibly-valuable-via-trade/c-300061042?tid=282421090
 

jon abbey

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That Lynn deal shows you why Sonny Gray has value at 1/9, although probably not to CIN anymore, since they just traded for Tanner Roark.
 

jon abbey

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Who is going to be first out of the bullpen in pressure situations this season now that Lynn is in Texas?
You mean a long guy? German is one option, Cessa maybe too, but they have said they plan to add two relievers still so we'll have a better idea after that.
 

jon abbey

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Assuming the Happ deal is done (and the Morton/Lynn signings make it seem like that's the case, plus guys like Hoch and Sherman tweeting like it's definite although still not announced), here's where NY's pitching staff stands currently:

Paxton
Severino
Happ
Tanaka
CC

German
Kahnle
Holder
Green
????
????
Betances
Chapman
 

jon abbey

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Yep, others are confirming, looks like a vesting option for year 3.
 

jon abbey

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Oh, ha! I was pretty distracted during the ALDS this year, I’m still pretty happy I missed the 16-1 beatdown entirely.
 

Rough Carrigan

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Assuming the Happ deal is done (and the Morton/Lynn signings make it seem like that's the case, plus guys like Hoch and Sherman tweeting like it's definite although still not announced), here's where NY's pitching staff stands currently:

Paxton
Severino
Happ
Tanaka
CC

German
Kahnle
Holder
Green
????
????
Betances
Chapman
Who would be the 6th or potentially 7th starters?
 

jon abbey

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Who would be the 6th or potentially 7th starters?
They're thin there currently, but I'd say as of now some combo of Loaisiga, German, Parker Bridwell if they can get him to AAA without being claimed, Michael King (not on the 40 man but dominant in AAA down the stretch and threw 161 innings last year), and Cessa if he somehow sticks around.

German, Bridwell, and Cessa are all out of options, so that will be worth keeping an eye on.
 

jon abbey

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Oh, and they are hoping Jordan Montgomery comes back in the second half.

It's also worth noting that while NY is now set in the rotation barring a big injury, Severino is the only one signed for more than two years, so they are still looking to get longer term guys. Ideally they move Gray to ATL for one of their many pitching prospects who they can throw into the mix in my last post, for 6th starters and beyond.
 

jon abbey

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Bluffing Boras and other agents?
With the Harper stuff? If anything, I think he was doing Boras a favor by giving the teams really going for him a smidgen of doubt.

That being said, I said a few times this year that if Cashman wants both Machado and Harper, he should set up a Warriors style sitdown with both of them and a bunch of prominent Yankees and offer them matching deals, I said 8/280 over the summer, with at least one player optout (after season 2 or 3). Boras especially wouldn't be thrilled but that would be a pretty fun lineup to be a part of for a player. "Hi Bryce, we are the twin power forwards Aaron and Giancarlo, and you would be hitting between us. Let's see how often you get pitched around then."

If you add in the two relievers Cashman keeps saying he plans to add still (and if both are FAs, he could get a cheap one for Gray still too), I think that would put them around $270M-$280M, pretty unlikely. Even if he could also move Ellsbury's salary by bundling it with prospects, still decidedly above the top tax level but if there is ever a time to go for it, it is now.
 

jon abbey

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But last year they genuinely weren't interested in Stanton until Ohtani turned them down, so if they don't get Machado, I think Harper becomes at least a bit more likely.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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Sitting at about $186 million with the Happ signing. Still need middle infield and bullpen help. And that’s before potentially $30 million AAV for Machado. Hard to see how NY avoids the first or seconds luxury tax threshold.
 

jon abbey

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Sitting at about $186 million with the Happ signing. Still need middle infield and bullpen help. And that’s before potentially $30 million AAV for Machado. Hard to see how NY avoids the first or seconds luxury tax threshold.
For me the only question ever was whether they'd break $246M or not, BOS is certainly going to again. My theory is that they don't mind doing so if needed, and that is one reason they made such a point of loading up with the maximum allowed in international money/extra prospects this summer in addition to resetting the tax rates. Also they have done well drafting the last few years in terms of depth, they can deal with some drafting/signing/financial penalties.
 

jon abbey

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NY should go hard after both Ottavino and Robertson now, that would leave BOS in a tough position, since Britton and Miller seem to be in demand by NL teams willing to pay up.
 

hbk72777

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I'd love Robertson back. He's like the baseball version of Eli Manning. He just does not show emotion no matter how bad the situation is, he does not get nervous.
 

jon abbey

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A 'fully operational Death Star' signs both those guys and gives Dombrowski and Sox fans agita.
 

bankshot1

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Doesn't the "Death Star" blow-up at the end?

While I haven't kept up with Star-Wars in decades, speaking as a Sox fan, I think the analogy gives most Sox fans a pretty good laugh.