2018 Ryder Cup- Le Golf National

[The Needler]

I think on Spieth/Reed, they can send them out as a foursomes pairing and then break them up for four ball. Foursomes is the tougher one to match guys up, so leaving together a pair that has had success (1-1-2...should be 2-1-1 if not for the 4 up with 6 to play meltdown against Sergio and RCB) would make sense. Then they can send Reed out with Tiger in four ball and Spieth with his buddy JT.

If Tiger only plays 1 match a day, I’d keep him in four ball. He was #1 in strokes gained approach, let him hit stingers off the tee all day and then fire in at every flag instead of only hitting half the approach shots. The driver has been a lot better since he tweaked the shaft and loft, but this place doesn’t require driver off the tee. Maybe the JT pairing that had been talked about would work out, Tiger can put those stingers in play and then free up JT to be more aggressive with the big stick.

Fourballs are the first matches, and I don't see Spieth and Reed being broken up if they have success. In 2016, no U.S. team was was split up in their next match after a win except for Koepka/Sneds on Saturday, and that's just because Snedeker wasn't going to play two matches. I would say Spieth/JT is a plan B team, that only sees action of Reed/Spieth fail, and even then, Spieth may get sat depending on how that failure happened.

As for Tiger, I expect he'll play at least 4 matches unless he expressly asks out or plays terribly. If he's playing well, he's not going to let his age or injury history keep him out.

My predictions for the first fourball pairings are:

Spieth/Reed
Tiger/Bryson
Rickie/JT
Brooks/DJ

And if any of those teams win, they'll be back out for foursomes. I'm guessing Phil doesn't play Day 1.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I honestly don't know how you attack this course in foursomes if you're Furyk. You can try to pair a long hitter with a short hitter, but then do you have the short hitter get it in play off the tee and take the biggest weapon out of your long hitters hand or do you roll the dice and let the long hitter bomb it and live with the play from the rough?

Unless they added tee boxes from what I see online, it doesn't look like it's too long for any of these guys.

Put the shorter guys on odd numbers (3/4 of the par 3s); longer guys on even holes (2/3 par 5s). Leaves two par 4s around 480 for the short guy and one par 5 at 589. That's nothing for these guys.

I didn't realize home captain gets to decide the order of events, but yeah, that's a good point and one I could see playing out. Agree on that, as well as the point that this isn't going to be a blowout like some are expecting. It never is, no matter how much talent advantage it appears we have.

 

[cshea]

Doesn’t the course set up cut both ways? Yeah, they can try and neutralize some of the American bombers, but it is not like the European team is crazy short off the tee. Rory’s biggest weapon is the driver and that is getting taken out of his hands, no? Same for Rahm, Rose, Fleetwood, etc.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Doesn’t the course set up cut both ways? Yeah, they can try and neutralize some of the American bombers, but it is not like the European team is crazy short off the tee. Rory’s biggest weapon is the driver and that is getting taken out of his hands, no? Same for Rahm, Rose, Fleetwood, etc.

Europe does have some heavy hitters, but not nearly the amount of the US team. In driving distance on the PGA Tour the American side has #4 Finau, #6 DJ, #8 Koepka, #9 Bubba, #11 JT, #25 Bryson, #34 Tiger, #54 Phil, #56 Rickie, #62 Spieth, #80 Reed, and #117 Webb. The Euros have #1 Rory, #15 Rahm, #23 Fleetwood, #30 Casey, #32 Rose, #52 Molinari, #71 Noren, #83 Hatton, #123 Poulter, #142 Stenson. Sergio is #78 and Olesen is #113 on the European Tour as they appear to not have played enough on the PGA Tour to qualify.

Euros have more players who are long and straight off the tee as Rose, Fleetwood, Molinari, and Casey all rank in the top 12 on the PGA Tour this year in total driving(distance plus accuracy). Fowler is the only American in this range. In the top 50 the Euros have 6 while the Americans have 5. USA's top 50 rank is 10. Fowler, 20. Bryson, 42. DJ, 47. Watson, and 50. JT. Euro's rankings are 1. Rose , 4. Fleetwood, 8. Molinari, 12. Casey, 37. Rahm, and 40. Stenson.

 

[terrynever]

Great analysis, guys. I don't have to read Bob Harig when you are so available.
I would add that at the end of the day, putting is the biggest decider of Ryder Cup matches.

 

[TFP]

In the end, I'd match up personalities rather than playing styles, especially in Foursomes, with an eye to equipment/ball type as well. I think that's more important than trying to match up bomber/irons on a tricky setup course like this. Get guys who mesh well together (and want to play together) and let them go nuts.

 

[TFP]

Euros have more players who are long and straight off the tee as Rose, Fleetwood, Molinari, and Casey all rank in the top 12 on the PGA Tour this year in total driving(distance plus accuracy). Fowler is the only American in this range. In the top 50 the Euros have 6 while the Americans have 5. USA's top 50 rank is 10. Fowler, 20. Bryson, 42. DJ, 47. Watson, and 50. JT. Euro's rankings are 1. Rose , 4. Fleetwood, 8. Molinari, 12. Casey, 37. Rahm, and 40. Stenson.

Total driving is a useless stat. It combines two different measurement units into 1 and doesn't take into account degrees of difference. Driving accuracy is a binary stat (either you hit the fairway or don't) and driving distance is on a scale. They're not even remotely comparable.

For example, is it better to be ranked 20th in difference or 10th in accuracy? Do they miss the fairway by a yard or do they go OB?

 

[FL4WL3SS]

In the end, I'd match up personalities rather than playing styles, especially in Foursomes, with an eye to equipment/ball type as well. I think that's more important than trying to match up bomber/irons on a tricky setup course like this. Get guys who mesh well together (and want to play together) and let them go nuts.

Bingo.

 

[cshea]

Europe does have some heavy hitters, but not nearly the amount of the US team. In driving distance on the PGA Tour the American side has #4 Finau, #6 DJ, #8 Koepka, #9 Bubba, #11 JT, #25 Bryson, #34 Tiger, #54 Phil, #56 Rickie, #62 Spieth, #80 Reed, and #117 Webb. The Euros have #1 Rory, #15 Rahm, #23 Fleetwood, #30 Casey, #32 Rose, #52 Molinari, #71 Noren, #83 Hatton, #123 Poulter, #142 Stenson. Sergio is #78 and Olesen is #113 on the European Tour as they appear to not have played enough on the PGA Tour to qualify.

Euros have more players who are long and straight off the tee as Rose, Fleetwood, Molinari, and Casey all rank in the top 12 on the PGA Tour this year in total driving(distance plus accuracy). Fowler is the only American in this range. In the top 50 the Euros have 6 while the Americans have 5. USA's top 50 rank is 10. Fowler, 20. Bryson, 42. DJ, 47. Watson, and 50. JT. Euro's rankings are 1. Rose , 4. Fleetwood, 8. Molinari, 12. Casey, 37. Rahm, and 40. Stenson.

The set up is trending toward no drivers for both sides though, or at least very few, so that stuff would be sort of meaningless. To me, making the course short and narrow would be putting more of a premium on ball striking. The Americans have 9 players inside top 30 in strokes gained approach, against 5 for the Euro’s, although with a caveat that there are European players (Sergio and Olesen) that don’t have enough PGA tour rounds to qualify for the stat.

Using Tiger as an example, he was 100th on tour in strokes gained off the tee, then first in strokes gained approach. If he was getting in trouble, it was with the driver. So all the set up is doing is taking away Woods’ weakness and playing to his strength. The same goes for Phil and Patrick Reed. On the Euro side, Rory was 9th in strokes gained off the tee, but weaker in approach and around the green. Rahm too. Just a few examples, it’s not like that for everyone. I don’t know, I’m likely wrong, but I feel like a better set up to neutralize the American bombers would be a longer set up that tempts/forces them to hit more drivers and thus maybe get themselves in more trouble. Reducing the drivers for everyone across the board doesn’t seem like a major advantage for the Euro’s.

 

[RedOctober3829]

The set up is trending toward no drivers for both sides though, or at least very few, so that stuff would be sort of meaningless. To me, making the course short and narrow would be putting more of a premium on ball striking. The Americans have 9 players inside top 30 in strokes gained approach, against 5 for the Euro’s, although with a caveat that there are European players (Sergio and Olesen) that don’t have enough PGA tour rounds to qualify for the stat.

Using Tiger as an example, he was 100th on tour in strokes gained off the tee, then first in strokes gained approach. If he was getting in trouble, it was with the driver. So all the set up is doing is taking away Woods’ weakness and playing to his strength. The same goes for Phil and Patrick Reed. On the Euro side, Rory was 9th in strokes gained off the tee, but weaker in approach and around the green. Rahm too. Just a few examples, it’s not like that for everyone. I don’t know, I’m likely wrong, but I feel like a better set up to neutralize the American bombers would be a longer set up that tempts/forces them to hit more drivers and thus maybe get themselves in more trouble. Reducing the drivers for everyone across the board doesn’t seem like a major advantage for the Euro’s.

I hope the Americans hit driver as much as possible on a shorter course. Use the length advantage and have wedges in hand as much as they can even if it's in the rough. As said above, they are good enough to score even if off the fairway and I wouldn't want them to change their games too much. Sure, if there are really tight par 4's they should be cautious and go iron off the tee especially in a tight match but let it fly whenever possible.

Couldn't agree more with personalities as well. There are a lot of guys who want to play with each other so I think a lot of combinations will work because they seem to get along much better than US teams in the past. Reed was seen using a Bridgestone ball today, so that may be an indication he's getting ready to play with Tiger.

I was just trying to get a gauge of how many players on each side are both long hitters but also keep the ball in the fairway. Thanks for the tip on total driving.

 

[TFP]

And my venom towards total driving wasn’t directed at you, just at how ubiquitous it is when it’s an affront to math everywhere, haha.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

I hope the Americans hit driver as much as possible on a shorter course. Use the length advantage and have wedges in hand as much as they can even if it's in the rough. As said above, they are good enough to score even if off the fairway and I wouldn't want them to change their games too much. Sure, if there are really tight par 4's they should be cautious and go iron off the tee especially in a tight match but let it fly whenever possible.

Couldn't agree more with personalities as well. There are a lot of guys who want to play with each other so I think a lot of combinations will work because they seem to get along much better than US teams in the past. Reed was seen using a Bridgestone ball today, so that may be an indication he's getting ready to play with Tiger.

I was just trying to get a gauge of how many players on each side are both long hitters but also keep the ball in the fairway. Thanks for the tip on total driving.

You can't control spin on wedges from the rough, especially deep rough. They advantage of having a wedge in your hand is to attack tucked pins while controling spin and trajectory. They can't do that from deep rough and in fact, they'll have trouble controlling distance.

It's sounds good in theory, but if you can guarantee a tight lie in the fairway with a 9 iron over a "who knows" lie with a sand wedge, I'm taking the consistent lie every time.

 

[TFP]

You can't control spin on wedges from the rough, especially deep rough. They advantage of having a wedge in your hand is to attack tucked pins while controling spin and trajectory. They can't do that from deep rough and in fact, they'll have trouble controlling distance.

It's sounds good in theory, but if you can guarantee a tight lie in the fairway with a 9 iron over a "who knows" lie with a sand wedge, I'm taking the consistent lie every time.

While intuitively I agree (and a lot of players would too), the strokes gained stats all say the extra distance in the rough is better for scoring.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

In the end, I'd match up personalities rather than playing styles, especially in Foursomes, with an eye to equipment/ball type as well. I think that's more important than trying to match up bomber/irons on a tricky setup course like this. Get guys who mesh well together (and want to play together) and let them go nuts.

This.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

While intuitively I agree (and a lot of players would too), the strokes gained stats all say the extra distance in the rough is better for scoring.

In general, I agree and is why I specifically called out deep rough. I'll take a wedge in my hand in 1.5" rough all day, but 2 or even 2.5-3" rough? You can't predict the ball strike. Rough length matters and rough type matters (bent v Bermuda).

It would be interesting to see the stats broken out like that. With the caveat that I don't know the exact parameters of the rough they'll be playing this week.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

In general, I agree and is why I specifically called out deep rough. I'll take a wedge in my hand in 1.5" rough all day, but 2 or even 2.5-3" rough? You can't predict the ball strike. Rough length matters and rough type matters (bent v Bermuda).

It would be interesting to see the stats broken out like that. With the caveat that I don't know the exact parameters of the rough they'll be playing this week.

Don’t know the exact breed, but it appears to be a 3” mix of ‘cool season grasses’, which I have no idea what that means. But yeah, 3” lush rough doesn’t portend to being able to control distance or spin well.
https://golfweek.com/2018/09/24/forecaddie-first-look-at-le-golf-nationals-2018-ryder-cup-course-setup/

 

[TFP]

In general, I agree and is why I specifically called out deep rough. I'll take a wedge in my hand in 1.5" rough all day, but 2 or even 2.5-3" rough? You can't predict the ball strike. Rough length matters and rough type matters (bent v Bermuda).

It would be interesting to see the stats broken out like that. With the caveat that I don't know the exact parameters of the rough they'll be playing this week.

All fair points as well.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Don’t know the exact breed, but it appears to be a 3” mix of ‘cool season grasses’, which I have no idea what that means. But yeah, 3” lush rough doesn’t portend to being able to control distance or spin well.
https://golfweek.com/2018/09/24/forecaddie-first-look-at-le-golf-nationals-2018-ryder-cup-course-setup/

Cool weather grass implies either bent or poa annua (or both).

 

[FL4WL3SS]

I would imagine there is also different types of fescues.

 

[cshea]

Right or wrong, all signs seem to be pointing towards Tiger/Reed and JT/Spieth. They are practicing alternate shot today in those pairs. Reed has reportedly been working with a Bridgestone this week too.

FWIW, the Tiger Tracker account seems to think Tiger/Reed play both sessions together tomorrow.


Guess we’ll find out soon enough.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Golf Channel just said per sources that Bubba Watson/Webb Simpson most likely won’t play until the afternoon and also to expect that no US player will play all 5 matches.

 

[gtg807y]

Bubba seems like a guy who would be a really bad partner in alternate shot. His Ryder Cup record reflects that - lost the only foursomes matches he played in 2010 and 2012, didn't play in any foursomes sessions in 2014.

 

[TFP]

Here's my official guess for the fourball tomorrow (in no particular order):

• Tiger/Reed
• JT/Spieth
• Rickie/DJ
• Finau/Koepka

I think Phil, Bryson, Webb, and Bubba all sit the morning.

 

[ezemerson]

I just don't even like looking at Reed...

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Here's my official guess for the fourball tomorrow (in no particular order):

• Tiger/Reed
• JT/Spieth
• Rickie/DJ
• Finau/Koepka

I think Phil, Bryson, Webb, and Bubba all sit the morning.

So basically what's been reported lol

In all seriousness, if that's the case, then I have a bit more confidence in Furyk. I don't know if I love having Phil and Bubba wait until foursomes to suck though. Might as well have them play in a format that's easier for their partner to pick them up.

Like those pairings though.

 

[ezemerson]

What an ovation for Tiger.... however they are dragging this ceremony on forever just announced the damn pairings

 

[RedOctober3829]

No Frenchman as vice captain? What's Jean Van de Velde up to these days?

 

[TFP]

Here's my official guess for the fourball tomorrow (in no particular order):

• Tiger/Reed
• JT/Spieth
• Rickie/DJ
• Finau/Koepka

I think Phil, Bryson, Webb, and Bubba all sit the morning.

So basically what's been reported lol

It may have been the obvious choice, but at least I was right!

 

[cshea]

Brooks/Finau vs. Rose/Rahm
DJ/Rickie vs. Rory/Olesen
JT/Spieth vs. Casey/Hatton
Woods/Reed vs. Molinari/Fleetwood

 

[TFP]

Sergio, Stenson, Poulter, and Noren sitting for the Euros.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Koepka/Finau vs. Rose/Rahm
DJ/Fowler vs. Rory/Olesen
Spieth/JT vs. Casey/Hatton
Reed/Woods vs. Molinari/Fleetwood

Advantage Europe in Match 1. Even in Match 2. Advantage USA in Match 3. Even in Match 4.

 

[cshea]

Kinda surprised Poulter is on the bench to start things off.

 

[TFP]

Only thing I would have changed would be to have put Reed and Tiger off first.

 

[RedOctober3829]

"From being out of the Ryder Cup picture to the possibility of playing four matches out of five is an interesting development for Tiger Woods. Look for him to not only play Friday's fourball match with partner Patrick Reed, but to play foursomes in the afternoon. The two practiced the format Thursday. The big question for captain Jim Furyk: Who does he sit in the afternoon? It has become common practice for American captains to use all of their players on the first day."

http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-41034769-4

 

[The Needler]

I think sitting DeChambeau (3 wins in his last 12 events) is madness, and the idea of playing Bubba and Phil in foursomes instead of four-ball is terrifying. I really hope I’m wrong, but I do not like these pairings at all.

 

[luckysox]

I really like Koepka and Finau in the 1st match. Kopeka is a phenomenal big-moment player, and Finaua has been as consistent as anyone this year. They ooze ease. I love it.

 

[MillarTime]

I think sitting DeChambeau (3 wins in his last 12 events) is madness

Agreed...think would be my one 2nd guess at this point

 

[RedOctober3829]

Agreed...think would be my one 2nd guess at this point

Bryson looks to be tied to Phil and they're only playing Phil once a day so I get it.

 

[The Needler]

Bryson looks to be tied to Phil and they're only playing Phil once a day so I get it.

That sort of assumes "tying him to Phil" is a good idea. Bryson, under at least one widely-used barometer (OWGR) has been not only the best player on this team in 2018, but the best player in the world. Spieth has been literally the worst player on the US team, and as we know, didn't even qualify for the Tour Championship.

If you send Spieth out with Reed, I don't know how that can be questioned; they are the most successful team in U.S. history. But if you are determined to break them up, there is no good reason to play Spieth over DeChambeau. Spieth has literally done nothing in the Ryder Cup without Reed. He is 0-2-0 without him (and 0-3-0 in Presidents Cup singles). I just don't see "being besties with JT" as a solid reason to be playing him here.

 

[Number45forever]

There's also been a near total (barring Speith/Reed) policy of the US to rest every player for at least one of the team sessions during recent Cups. I'd bet Bryson still plays four matches this week.

What I can't understand is how Phil isn't playing just four ball. He's still been making lots of birdies the last few months...and lots of bogeys and others. He seems tailored, right now, to four ball and specifically not tailored to foursomes play. I'd have played Phil/Bryson in four ball, then sat Phil for foursomes.

 

[TFP]

Having Phil hit half the tee shots is way better than having him be out of most of the holes and putting even more pressure on his partner to make birdie. Assuming he gets the even holes (and the three par 3s), that's only 6 tee shots he has to hit vs 14. I think foursomes sets up way better for Phil, and for people struggling with their form in general.

 

[RedOctober3829]

So who’s getting up early? Matches start in less than 7 hours.

 

[Lupe Whalewatch]

I set my alarm for 1:55am...that’s a first

 

[FL4WL3SS]

I'll be staying up late here on the west coast. Probably won't make it past seeing the last group tee off though.

 

[luckysox]

So who’s getting up early? Matches start in less than 7 hours.

I'm gonna set the alarm for 2:08. This was a long day, so I'm hoping 4 or 5 hours is good enough. Not sure.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Well if you can't get to sleep, I'll be up posting by myself for a while and could use some company!

 

[ernieshore]

Well if you can't get to sleep, I'll be up posting by myself for a while and could use some company!

I’ll try to make it until 1am Pacific time or so.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I had every intent to try to shuffle sleep to watch from tee off. Between work and following the BK hearing, that didn’t happen. I’ll be getting up early, look forward to getting back i here after I catch up tomorrow.

 

[Freddy Linn]

West Coast in the house.

Let’s go.

 

[ernieshore]

Ready here with a few Crux IPAs and two alarms set for an early conference call.