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2018 Raiders: The Process in the West

Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by AlNipper49, Jan 5, 2018.

  1. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    58,371
  2. AMcGhie

    AMcGhie Set Adrift on Memory Bliss SoSH Member

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    Cowboys traded a #1 for Amari Cooper. They now have 3 #1's next year, including their own, Chicago's (Mack) and Dallas' (Cooper).

    Anyone else being fire sale'd? Doug Jones and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are on deals that expire after the year and might be of use to someone.
     
  3. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    The best player they could deal would be Keleche Osemele. I would be pissed if they traded him for less than a 2, since he is one of the top 2-4 guards in the league. Jerrod Cook is a guy that some team that is close should consider renting, he has been great this year.

    According to Rappaport, who is clearly the best source for what is going on in Alameda in the Gruden era:



    I would add team Captain and leader, Center Rodney Hudson, who is also extended on a great deal through 2020, to the list of guys who won't be traded, but I bet everyone else not mentioned by Rap could be acquired. I fucking hate tanking and dont think this team, as constructed at the end of last season, needed to tank, but fuck it, at least they are doing it right.
     
  4. Marciano490

    Marciano490 Urological Expert SoSH Member

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    Do you feel they tanked the season by trading Mack before it started? Because, I wouldn’t consider having a fire sale now tanking per se; they’re not making the playoffs regardless and this seems more about bouncing back in a year or two then trying to get a high pick.
     
  5. EvilEmpire

    EvilEmpire Dope Staff Member Dope

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    By all means, tear it down. Gruden knows he has some time to build with, so might as well start now. I'm not even sure about Carr anymore. His decision making under pressure worries me.
     
  6. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Cr might have other issues

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...akland-raiders-even-not-popular-one-right-now
     
  7. Marciano490

    Marciano490 Urological Expert SoSH Member

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    Fuck whoever leaked that. Carr has suffered through a ton of injuries. If he got a little testy eyed, it’s because he was in a ton of pain, and I’ve never met any high level athlete in a physical sport who rags on a teammate for crying in pain. That’s some faux tough guy sports caller nonsense.
     
  8. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    This team has quit on its coach.


    Getting blown out by like the 4th string SF QB.
     
  9. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

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    Has the Coliseum lease for 2019 been signed yet?

    And is it too late for Adelson/Vegas to ask for the Chargers instead? Raiders would probably do better long-term in Inglewood than the Chargers anyway. Seems like a win-win.
     
  10. Rough Carrigan

    Rough Carrigan reasons within Reason Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  11. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    This offseason is where we see if Gruden was just gearing up for a tank job, or he's just lost it.
    They can get off of Carr's deal fairly cheap, and they 100% should.

     
  12. rodderick

    rodderick Member SoSH Member

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    Derek Carr plays scared in every way. Scared of the pass rush, scared of pushing the ball down the field. He just sucks right now, he's Brian Hoyer with more arm talent.
     
  13. kenneycb

    kenneycb Hates Goose Island Beer; Loves Backdoor Play SoSH Member

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    That also sounds a bit like David Carr.
     
  14. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    MMMM
    Look at this beautiful QB play
     
  15. splendid splinter

    splendid splinter Member SoSH Member

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    I didn't watch the game so I'm just going from the game logs, but he'd been sacked 6 times at that point. I'm not sure I blame him for giving up early to avoid getting hit again.
     
  16. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    You missed multiple games this year, apparently. There is a large element of coaching in that inaccurate assessment you are making. Watching the Cleveland, Indy, Miami or Denver games (ie. games they had a chance to win) Carr hangs in the pocket and takes shots just fine. His biggest errors in those games are forcing shots deep (best examples being the interceptions in the end zone against Miami and the Rams). Gruden is clearly telling him to get the ball out quick and keep throws short in the games where their poorly coached and injury ravaged ravaged offensive line is getting overrun.

    In terms of being afraid to throw deep, his YPA is up almost a yard (7.8) over his career average this year. According to PFF (give me time to find the stat) he has the third highest deep ball completion percentage, though he is throwing the 4th fewest deep balls, just ahead of noted “scared to go deep” guy Drew Brees.
     
    #116 Gunfighter 09, Nov 2, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2018
  17. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    I absolutely want him sliding early down 34-3 in the fourth quarter. In fact, I don’t want him the game at that point since Gruden wasn’t trying to win, based on the decisions(kicking a field goal down 34-3) and play calling (running the ball the entire 4th quarter) that Gruden was going with in the game.


    This is the problem with tanking in the NFL. Careers are so short, games are so few and injury is lurking around every play. Getting players to buy into the big picture benefits of tanking is fucking impossible in a way that is not present in the NBA or baseball.

    “Carr is the problem” people clearly don’t watch this abomination of of a team, seeing as Quarterback play has been the only highlight of this horrible season beyond the 5 games of vintage Beast Mode we were given.
     
  18. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    He's dead last in the NFL in air yards.
    You can probably be good with David Carr level QB play if he costs $4M or less and all the money goes into making everything else better. You can't have him making what he makes and expect the team to be good.
    Oakland has a lot of problems, but paying a ton of money to a not good QB is the easiest way to have a bad team
     
    #118 Cellar-Door, Nov 2, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2018
  19. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    Are you recommending that Gruden give Martavis Bryant more than a dozen or so snaps a game? If so, I agree.

    If you are recommending that they force the ball deep to the corpse of Jordy Nelson or Brandon Lafell rather than throw short to their well above average Tight End Jarrod Cook or above average third down back Jalen Richard, I disagree.

    It is accurate to say that the best criticism of Carr is that his eyes come down when he is getting hit. It has always been his weakness. But he has been much better about that this year in games where they are competitive, and completely regressed on games where they are not. Which leads me to believe it is coaching and the knowledge that they are playing for absolutely nothing that is motivating his play. When they are competitive, he looks like this, avoiding or absorbing pressure while keeping his eyes up and using his top level arm talent:




    When they are not, the Offensive line is going overrun (always corresponding to Kolton Miller's knee being hurt) and Gruden gets super conservative with the play calling, Carr starts checking down everything.

    It seems like a business decision to me, and one I would make too in this debacle of a situation.



    David Carr hasn't played in the league in half a decade. You are right though, for David Carr level play, you dont want to be paying starter money. Derek Carr is getting paid quite appropriately for what he offers to an average team. Attempting to weigh contract value on a team that is tanking is a bit of a fools errand.

    Derek is currently the 6th highest paid QB in the league in AAV, and the 17th highest in guaranteed AAV. He is under contract at what will age into a mid to late teens QB contract until 2022, his age 28-31 seasons. Marriotta, Wilson, Brees and Rivers will all move past him this offseason, putting his contract at the 10th most valuable, and 11th most valuable if the Bucs are dumb enough to stick with Jamies. Cam, Goff and Wentz will all move past him the next year.
    https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback

    Cutting him, accepting $8M in dead money and going on the Fitzpatrick / Teddy / Eli market while drafting a below average prospect like Grier, Costello or Stithem this year, and watching Carr sign a $20M deal somewhere else (NYG, TB, perhaps even Denver) seems incredibly foolish considering his age, potential, and past performance. At the very least you give him next season and take your chances in the much better 2020 QB draft (Tua, Herbert etc.) If you keep him long term, aiming at success in 2020 (the first year in Vegas), you have a guy who is still under contract for three season your first year in Vegas, at average starter salary, who is 29 years old and has shown plenty of well above average performance. The quarterback market is correcting rapidly, and QBs develop at an age curve much later than any other position in football. There is no need to hit reset on this spot.

    Besides, cap room is not an issue, they have $75 right now, assuming a $190M cap. After they cut the players off of Gruden's shit list (Bruce Irvin, Tahir Whitehead etc.) they are going to be close to $100M. There has to be some stability on the roster, and they have to hit their salary floors. The best plan for that is to keep Carr and the three interior lineman under 30 (Jackson, Hudson, Osemele) that they have on long term deals.
     
    #119 Gunfighter 09, Nov 2, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2018
  20. DourDoerr

    DourDoerr Well-Known Member Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I get not wanting Carr to get hurt in a meaningless (at that point) game and I still believe in Carr as an above average QB, but I think he has to take advantage of the blocker in front of him and go for a first down. When he's about to get hit, sure, slide away, but he has to keep the other guys in the locker room in his corner and that play won't help. Players watching that on tape will either be furious, or laughing, or shaking their heads. All of which are terrible for a leader.
     
  21. Sox and Rocks

    Sox and Rocks Member SoSH Member

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    I watch the Raiders a lot (I'm a glutton for punishment, I guess), and Carr hasn't looked right to me since he broke his leg in 2016. I don't think he's scared of being hit, as GF's videos above demonstrate, but I do think he's nervous of being hit from behind, which is how the leg injury happened. He often steps up into the pocket even when there is no edge pressure.

    Basically, I think the injury's affected his psyche. If he sees the pressure, he's fine, but he doesn't sense the unseen very well, and it's affecting his ability in the pocket.

    The banged up line hasn't been very good, but at times, Carr also seems to step into the inside pressure, creating sacks that don't have to happen.
     
  22. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    This is an interesting take on Carr, that he's gone Carson Palmer.
    I don't buy at all the take that it is all supporting cast, since last year he had better pass catchers, his protection graded out very well and he still had one of the lowest air yards numbers in the league, was near the top of the league in interceptable passes and generally was a bottom half QB. This season the line is worse, and he's stopped taking chances, but it has also meant that he is not throwing intermediate throws. It's not going deep I worry about, it's everything from 5-15 yards downfield where he isn't making plays.

    I get the idea that there isn't much out there (though I think the rookie class is fine) but he's not a player you build around to me. He probably has value as a trade piece where they can eat the bonuses to get him to a team that thinks they can compete with him (Jags?, Bucs?, Giants?). But building around him isn't something that his performance the last 2 years makes seem like a good idea.
     
  23. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Wow, that's a lot of cap room, given that there's a salary floor. Do you think they'll be looking to take on Osweiler-to-Browns type deals where they assume short-term salary ballast in exchange for picks?
     
  24. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    Hard to argue with this. My immediate emotional reaction watching the game was to yell at the TV when I saw the early slide.

    I am going to watch for this going forward, you might be right.


    The best Raiders beat writer, Vic Tafur, had a note about my "Kolton Miller's right knee is the key to any offensive success the Raiders might have theory:"




    Expanding this out to the entire season:

    Miller's four healthy games:

    Raiders' total yards and points:
    Rams: 395 and 13
    Donkeys: 373 and 19
    Phins: 434 and 20
    Browns: 565 and 45
    Colts: 347 and 28

    Miller's knee injury games:

    Chargers: 289 and 10
    Hawks: 185 and 3
    9ers: 242 and 3

    Tom Cable is a horrific offensive line coach and they can only protect Carr when they have the interior lineman and Miller healthy, then they cover for rookie RT Parker with scheme. Once they have to start moving parts around, or Miller can't base off of his injured plant leg, it all falls apart. They get dominated off of the edge, can't pick up stunts, Carr starts to get skittish and Gruden just buys into the draft position and stops calling plays to win.

    EDIT: Ted Nguyen says it, so it must be true:



    Seems like we are both fairly entrenched where we stand on DC, but two questions / comments about the bolded, neither of which are Raiders specific:

    A. Are you talking Cian Fahey intercept able passes? Because that has struck me as the most subjective and fairly useless stat for measuring QB play. I would be very interested in hearing a defense of the "interceptable pass" stat.

    B. I think Grier might have some potential, but I dont see any QBs in this class I like. I really dont think Eugene born and raised Herbert is coming out, but I also dont think he is anywhere near the prospect Darnold, Baker or Rosen were. He seems like a better coached version of Allen to me. The arm talent and physical gifts are certainly impressive, but his performance at the end of the Stanford game and throughout the Arizona games really turned me off on him. Tua on the other hand....
     
    #124 Gunfighter 09, Nov 2, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2018
  25. DanoooME

    DanoooME Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    The worst part of Cable's "scheme" is that he refuses to give help to his linemen when they needed it, with a TE blocking or an RB chip or something. Almost like he thinks that kind of stuff isn't "manly" or something. Do you want to know how bad Cable is? He leaves Seattle and with basically the same personnel (only additions this year were JR Sweezy and DJ Fluker, neither of which is considered to be even mediocre, let alone good) Mike Solari has them in the middle of the pack when last year they were considered one of the worst, if not the worst OL.

    Cable needs to retire. I am convinced he was the problem in Seattle. And he'll destroy every line he touches.
     
  26. McBride11

    McBride11 Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Tom Cable - the Ante Dante

    Jax is a Bortles away from a SB appearance. Why not trade Carr? Seems like Oak and Jax could work something out.
    2019 qb class is weak but why not trade carr for future (2020, 2021) to Jax or some other team just needing a qb. Carr seems like he will only get beat up worse, the window is a few years out, get some value now.
     
  27. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    Jax can't trade for him because they would eat $16.5M by cutting Blake in the offseason.

    Carr would have huge trade value if they put him on the market. If they traded him this offseason, they would eat his remaining bonuses (just under $8M) and that would leave the new team with Derek Carr at 4/$80M for his 28-31 year old seasons. He could also be cut at any point for no zero dead money by the new team. That is a steal in this QB market where you have to pay Sam Bradford $20M to be a caddy.

    The team likely to play into the scenario you describe would be the Giants, for their #1 plus other assets to the Raiders before the draft this spring. Eli is only due $6M against the cap if they cut him.
     
  28. Royal Reader

    Royal Reader Member SoSH Member

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    This might be the case, but it's worth noting that Carr played behind an atrocious O-line his Junior year of college (it was somewhat better his senior year at Fresno) and the knock on him coming out was that he started feeling phantom pressure even when none was coming, in exactly the manner Sox and Rocks upthread describes seeing this year.
     
  29. EvilEmpire

    EvilEmpire Dope Staff Member Dope

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    Reggie McKenzie was fired today. Hard to argue it wasn't deserved - not much drafted talent on this team. No idea who potential candidates will be, though I'm guessing it will be someone close to Gruden in some way. Was Gruden tight with Louis Riddick on the talking head circuit?
     
  30. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    16,123
    Thanks for continuing the Steelers' implosion. we owe ya one.
     
  31. ifmanis5

    ifmanis5 Member SoSH Member

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  32. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    SD Raiders?
     
  33. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    Only other place I can think is LA at the rose bowl.
     
  34. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

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  35. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    I would bet on San Diego, Reno or Fresno, in that order, for where they play next season.

    I cannot figure out why Oakland decided to sue the entire NFL, rather than just the Raiders.


    It really seems like both Derek Carr and Amari Cooper have benefitted from the Cooper trade. Carr in the last 7 games:

    - 150/223 (67.3%) for 1651 (7.4 YPA) and 11TDs with 0 interceptions.

    Carr has been truly excellent in the last two games against KC and Pittsburgh. (fanboy alert) I'm curious if @Cellar-Door is continuing his Derek Carr slander or has realized the error of his ways.
     
  36. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    I still think he isn't very good and that a rebuilding team should be looking to move him.
     
  37. Vegas Sox Fan

    Vegas Sox Fan Member SoSH Member

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    San Diego would make sense but it would be such a weird tease for the city. Reno or Fresno make less sense. Any stadium there would be just as bad as Sam Boyd but going to Vegas and getting the local support started seems logical.
     
  38. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    San Diego would be the best, but I can't see Dean Spanos agreeing to it, unless there are some skeletons in the Carson closet that Mark can withhold to make Dean happy.

    Reno makes sense for a couple reasons. They could still work out of the Alameda facility and be relatively close to where they play their games. They are going to have their future training camps in Reno and need to start building a bond with that part of the state of Nevada, so building the presence there makes sense. Reno's stadium probably needs some improvements to meet NFL TV standards, but that stadium will host the Wolfpack for years to come, so those improvements would make sense from a community investment standpoint. The reason Sam Boyd doesn't make sense is that they are ripping that place down either way in 2020, so bringing it up to NFL standards is not sensible.

    Fresno has many of these same advantages without the political benefit of building good will in Reno.


    Ok, agree to disagree. His numbers and the eyeball test both put him somewhere in the top 8-15 QBs in the league. His contract will be around the 10th highest next season and he is a 27 year old locked up for four years. That seems like exactly like the type of player a team would want to rebuild around. Since we liked single game samples above, check this one out, fast forward to the 2:52 mark for one of the best throws of the season by any QB:


    That perfect throw over the top of the cover two is exactly the opposite of what you would expect from a cowardly QB who won't throw deep.
     
    #138 Gunfighter 09, Dec 13, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2018
  39. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    What numbers? I'd say it's more accurate to say that the numbers put him in the 18 to 25 range, which is fine if you are a contender with a great defense for a team that could be best described as very bad it isn't worth the money.
     
  40. j-man

    j-man Member

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    i think they will play a year at zona stadium
    t’s gonna be Glendale.
    Santa Clara is out because it makes too much sense. It also made too much sense for the Raiders to go in with the 49ers on Levi’s Stadium from the very beginning, but since Davis has no sense, that didn’t happen, and it won’t now.
    Putting the team in San Diego for one season would be rubbing salt in San Diego’s wound. Even the NFL isn’t THAT heartless, right?
    Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas isn’t “NFL Ready”, but the NFL could relax those rules if it chose to. The question is how much money would have to be dumped into a building that’s slated to be demolished in a couple of years.
    Universities in the Bay area have already said they don’t need the BS that would come with an invasion of silver-spiked weirdos. They might at the right price, but Davis can’t afford that price, whatever it is.
    Glendale, on the other hand, needs nothing but a little black paint for the end zones. It’s closer to Las Vegas than the other choices (except Boyd), and the Bidwills are NFL loyalists who would do what the league asks. I think this option will win out because it’s the least disruptive, the least expensive, and the least damaging PR-wise.

    thanks to some one at pft for this info
     
  41. j-man

    j-man Member

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    1,299
    and follow up
    #1. The University of California has an agreement with the neighborhood that bars professional sports from being played at their stadium, it’s a no go.

    #2. UNLV isn’t even close to being “NFL-ready.” It wouldn’t make any sense for the Raiders, Vegas, or the NFL to pour money into it when they’re going to tear it down next year.

    #3. The Rams and the Chargers will do everything in their power to block the Raiders from re-entering Southern California, even if only for one season. San Diego won’t work.

    #4. As much as I’d love for the Raiders to play in San Antonio (I’d make the drive from Houston to see some of their games.) It won’t work and will just seem weird.

    #5. The Davis’s and the York’s don’t get along, Al Davis had his chance to get in on the Levis Stadium deal and chose not to. The 49ers don’t want the Raiders in Santa Clara, it won’t happen.

    #6. The Raiders could be the NFL’s guinea pig, send them for an entire season to London or Mexico City and see how it works to have a team there on a full-time basis. If it works, they’ll be able to put a team there some day, if it fails, we’ll finally be over it.

    #7. What I truly think will happen, the Raiders will end up shacking up with the Cardinals in Glendale for a season. Phoenix is fairly close to Vegas and the city is full of California transplants. The stadium in Glendale has a similar setup to what they’re doing in Vegas. It’s a natural fit.
     
  42. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

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    Raiders get the 4th, 24th, and 27th pick in this year's draft. Good luck getting anyone approaching Khalil Mack's talent with the 24th pick.
     
  43. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    They don't have to pay the 24th pick nearly as much money as Mack, though. (FWIW, they also get a first and a third in 2020, but give Chicago a second). In the long run, I think the deal helps both sides.
     
  44. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

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    And also we have this bit of news


    "OAKLAND, Calif. -- The Coliseum Authority will meet Friday to get an update on the possibility of whether the Raiders could stay in Oakland for another year.

    Authority executive director Scott McKibben said he will update the board in a closed session on where things stand between the Raiders and the Coliseum "
     
  45. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    Raiders are going to play in the SF giants stadium according to NFL network. Though it needs approval from the 49ers and the nfl for it to be official.
     
  46. heavyde050

    heavyde050 Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    What a money grab. Not happy about this as someone who lives within a 20 minute walk of Oracle and really enjoys it for baseball.
     
  47. patinorange

    patinorange Member SoSH Member

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    I like it. Saw a few college games there and it’s a fun place to watch football. I might have to make a trip.
     
  48. heavyde050

    heavyde050 Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    There is no parking there and the entire area is already basically a mess with the Chase Center construction.
    Plus traffic will be even worse for 49ers fans leaving the city to head to Levi’s and coming home if the Raiders are in town.
    At least their old stadium was in the East Bay.
     
  49. nattysez

    nattysez Member SoSH Member

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    The Niners are going to give up their territorial rights to the Raiders for a full year? AND give up the potential rent payments they could get from the Raiders playing in Levi's? Color me very skeptical. This feels like the Raiders announcing something to try to force it into existence.

    And if you wanted any indication of the Giants' front office's expectations for this year, condemning their team to a messed-up field for most of September says it all.
     

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