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2018 Raiders: The Process in the West

Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by AlNipper49, Jan 5, 2018.

  1. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

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    Given the face value prices for an expansion product in a 110 degree summer climate and a market with no regular season hockey history, this is it right here. No doubts about it.

    I can't imagine the tourist tax (hotel resort fee) what it will be in 3 years. Or the Raiders ticket prices.
     
  2. scottyno

    scottyno Member SoSH Member

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    4,447
    Also limited (and probably very expensive) parking and limited public transportation in Vegas to make just getting to the stadium fairly difficult.
     
  3. Marciano490

    Marciano490 Urological Expert SoSH Member

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    Vegas is a walking town!
     
  4. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    Clark County is requiring the Raiders to find another 14K parking spaces for the stadium. The most likely target is the Bali Hai golf course, across the 15 and just south of Mandalay Bay:

    [​IMG]

    The stadium site is the piece of dirt in the upper left hand corner of the picture. The Raiders have already agreed to build multiple bridges over the 15 to connect the strip / future monorail stop to the stadium.
     
  5. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    GF, you live in NorCal? If so, we say, like, 15, not the 15. :) I don’t know what the colloquial thing wrt that is in Vegas. And, wiping out a golf course? That’s progress! Srsly, thanks for the info. Wonder if Gruden is a gambler, and if that came up when he interviewed with Mark Davis.
     
  6. skip wright

    skip wright lurker

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    3
    i had forgotten he was coaching the raiders at the snow bowl....then got traded to the bucs lol......good stuff
     
  7. loshjott

    loshjott Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Since I’m on mobile I have absolutely no idea.
     
  8. NortheasternPJ

    NortheasternPJ Member SoSH Member

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    12,576
    That’s because the app sucks. Works fine in a mobile browser.
     
  9. luckiestman

    luckiestman Son of the Harpy SoSH Member

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    10,391
    Works fine in Tapatalk also
     
  10. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    Grew up on the Central Coast, lived in San Diego for 13 of the last 17 years, so all freeways start with "the".

    There is a legal issue with the golf course, in that the Feds (BLM) and city are suing the current holder of the lease, who is in prison, for back rent. That might be tying up the parking lot deal. Further, the casinos, who have just started charging for parking, are probably not huge fans of a giant parking lot at the south end of the strip, in close proximity to the monorail, that would cut into their parking income on non stadium event days. Further, due to proximity to runways 9/27 at McCarran, only 50 of the 90 acres that comprise the golf course can be used for parking.

    I still think it gets done, it makes too much sense for the Raiders and the city/county to have the extra parking capacity in right next to the monorail / airport / stadium on land that has limited development potential. they really only need to get the rights secured before the end of 2018 deadline. I saw somewhere that it would only take a couple months to convert the golf course to a parking lot, so they can probably afford to let the legal issues complete their course.
     
  11. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Why wouldn't the nearby casinos want to sublet some of their parking to the Raiders for the 10 days a year that it's relevant? Let the the casinos make money. The Raiders use OpEx rather than CapEx, and that's if you're not going to charge a premium anyway.
     
  12. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    Great question.

    Good question, and I have heard a few different people make a similar proposal. I think that still might happen, to some degree, but here are some reasons the Raiders / Casinos / Clark County might not want a Stadium / Casinos arrangement:

    - The Stadium was sold as hosting more than 40 events per year, not just 10 Raiders games. The Stadium is guaranteed to have at least the 10 Raiders games, 7 UNLV games, Las Vegas Bowl, a September neutral site football game, concerts, Soccer games and potentially both the Pac-12 and MW championship games and big UFC fights/Boxing matches. I think if you are talking about casinos selling a significant portion of their parking spots for more than 10% of the year, you are cutting into the actual "gate" for those casinos.

    - The Raiders probably want control of the parking revenue. They are taking on $600M of debt for the stadium, they cannot afford to be giving away revenue streams.

    -I don't know what the capacity of the monorail extension is going to be, but I don't think you get to the 14K parking spaces with just the casinos on the southern end of the strip, in close enough proximity to the stadium to count towards the stadium requirement.

    It will be interesting to see where they go. I bet they wind up at Bali Hai, but we will see.
     
  13. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    Well. How do our resident raider fans take this quote?
    [​IMG]

    Paging @Gunfighter 09
     
  14. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    I give that quote 3 out of 5 Joe Morgans.
     
  15. Scott Cooper's Grand Slam

    Scott Cooper's Grand Slam Member SoSH Member

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    Bravo. I just did a spit take.

    That quote is generally terrifying. Innumeracy is bad. Data science is important. Ignoring data is ceding competitive advantage. But charitably, there’s some wisdom in what Gruden is saying. There are plenty of “data driven” organizations that are not understanding or applying the data they have. There’s something admirable in admitting “I don’t know WTF this means and I won’t pretend.”

    But a good step after admitting ignorance is working to cure it.
     
  16. wnyghost

    wnyghost lurker

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    I'm going to hire good people to analyze the data and incorporate that information in to my way of doing things.
     
  17. SMU_Sox

    SMU_Sox loves his fluffykins SoSH Member

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    What does this one get?
     
  18. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    That... is the best thing I've read all day. Nice pull.
     
  19. Scott Cooper's Grand Slam

    Scott Cooper's Grand Slam Member SoSH Member

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    One Peter Griffin.

     
  20. Reverend

    Reverend for king and country Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    This is a man with like an 175 IQ who once apologized on national television for using a "big word."

    Don't believe a word of it.
     
  21. slamminsammya

    slamminsammya Member SoSH Member

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    Yea, it struck me as a Belichick esque tongue in cheek tweaking of technology. He knows its not "GPS". This is Grudens snapface moment. Even had a wry smirk as he said it.
     
  22. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    He gushed eloquently about the NEP yesterday at the Combine, hitting on the right points. Years in the booth were not wasted.
     
  23. BigJimEd

    BigJimEd Member SoSH Member

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    I believe it. NFL teams have a lot of data. I'd guess the GPS he's referring to are the rfid chips the players wear. It's relatively new and I bet a lot of NFL teams aren't quite sure how to use the data. (They only have data for tree own players.)

    Gruden had been out of the league a while. He's going to lean on what he knows. At the same time, he didn't say he's going to ignore all the data. He says he'll have a couple guys to help with that stuff.
    I don't think he is going to do cutting edge stuff though. At least not in the beginning which seems reasonable to me.
     
  24. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    Gruden was playing to his persona. He also said this later Wednesday:

    If you have an Athletic subscription, I strongly recommend the best Raider's beat writer Vic Tafur's article on the topic. I just quoted the actual Gruden quotes that can be found elsewhere

    https://theathletic.com/257425/2018...-calm-down-he-was-mostly-just-kidding-around/
     
  25. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    So...

    Is the only reason they hired Gruden, is to sell tickets to the LV stadium? Because if they wanted a better coach, and one that they wanted to give the BB role to, they may have been better of going elsewhere. You can sell a a flashy coach all you want, but if the product is shit people wont come.
     
  26. ehaz

    ehaz Member SoSH Member

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    2,056
    I think the plan for replacing Khalil Mack is now clear: draft Nick Bosa #1 overall.
     
  27. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    Today’s the first time I’ve been worried. They should have two or three wins from their first four, but Gus Bradley & Anthony Lynn just handed Gruden & Carr their ass today.

    The defense sucks because they essentially chose to have it suck, since they are punting on this season. The offense shouldn’t suck though, and today they just got out schemed. Every time Derwin James faked a blitz and dropped into coverage the Raiders offense seemed completely fluxomed. Yet again they couldn’t get Amari Cooper going when teams focused coverage his way. And the running game was garbage without Keleche Osemele out there.

    Two picks in the top twenty and $120+ in cap room will help next year, but winning more than 5 games will be a challenge this season. The franchise is clearly pivoted to winning in 2020 - Vegas season 1.
     
    #77 Gunfighter 09, Oct 7, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2018
  28. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    The Raiders were 10th in the AFC in point differential last season, and they took a step back while a few of the teams behind them improved. @Gunfighter 09 has bingo — this is a rebuilding year, by design.

    The Raiders’ schedule is surprisingly easy — @BAL is the only remaining game that looks unwinnable. (They visit KC Week 17, but that game may well be meaningless for the Chiefs.) So I’m guessing the Raiders won’t finish much worse than last season’s 6-10 mark, and Gruden will have the opportunity to create next year’s team in his image; that’s when we’ll start to see whether that 10-year contract was a mistake.
     
  29. Mystic Merlin

    Mystic Merlin Member SoSH Member

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    I’m still not sure why they traded Khalil Mack. They’ve got a fuckton of cap space over the next few years, and he’s unquestionably one of the top 5 defensive players in football in his prime.

    Anybody?
     
  30. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    It was stupid.

    The flawed logic is that Gruden will have an extra $24M in cap space each season + two first round picks to build what he wants, rather than paying Mack a ton of cash this year and only having ~$90M in cap room this offseason , plus being on the hook for 10% of the cap to one non QB for the next six years.

    That and I think the whole refusing to report or return Gruden’s phone calls really pissed Gruden off. They pulled the trigger when they got the impression Mack wasn’t going to show for week 1.

    Best case they turn Mack into something like Earl Thomas + a depth DE + two nice young players. They could even turn the cap room over into two more nice FAs when Mack is still mid contract.

    I’d still rather have the home grown HOFer.
     
  31. Morgan's Magic Snowplow

    Morgan's Magic Snowplow Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Gruden was a legit top-level coach in his heyday but 10 years is a long time to be out of coaching. Being a broadcaster and being around the game just isn't the same as being in the trenches breaking down film every day, figuring out exactly how other coaches are adapting and innovating on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis, etc. Its not surprising to me that Gruden would have a bit of a rough start when coming back. The real question is whether he has the drive and ability at this point in his life to get back to the top level. I don't think we'll really know until the end of the season at the very earliest. Realistically, it might not be until next season that we really see what kind of coach Gruden will be at this point in his career - give him a year to get used to the league again, have a whole offseason to think about his schemes and his personnel, then see what he can do.
     
  32. eustis22

    eustis22 lurker

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    911
    I tell you golf courses and cemeteries are the biggest waste of prime real estate.
     
  33. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    Bruce Irvin, one of the Raiders captains has checked out. Quote from after the game:

    "We lost, but I've got a beautiful wife I get to go home to, boy. I'm going to try to make some babies, man."
     
  34. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Worst team in football. Does Gruden make it to 2020?
     
  35. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    Sure he does. Your average head coach gets 3 years to show results, maybe only 2 if the team is a train wreck. Gruden’s 10-year deal gives him a lot more rope than the norm.

    @Gunfighter 09 is all over this in the two posts above — what they’re doing makes all the sense in the world of you value winning in the 2020s more than you value winning this year and next. I mean, Khalil Mack is a future HOFer, but his game is highly dependent on speed. He’ll be overpaid by 2021 or 2022. But Derek Carr will be in his prime, as will the guys they select with the Bears’ picks. It sucks for current Raiders’ fans, but it makes business sense.

    Gruden got that ridiculous deal, in part, because a coach would have to be crazy to sign up for this sort of strategy without that kind a f job security. For better or worse, he’ll be around for a good long while.
     
  36. Mystic Merlin

    Mystic Merlin Member SoSH Member

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    He’s been out of coaching for a while, so there’s gonna be a reacclimation process.

    It is also not great that he’s reportedly engaged in what seems like a power struggle withe McKenzie. If you’re gonna give Gruden personnel power then clean house.
     
  37. Gunfighter 09

    Gunfighter 09 wants to be caribou ken Staff Member Dope SoSH Member

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    For the record, I think trading Cooper is a bad idea. He is 24, a good offensive coach like Gruden should be able to correct any issues that exist. I am on board with trading most of the other guys who have been rumored to be on their way out.
     
  38. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    With all that cap space, they can certainly afford to pick up his option, and I assume he’d play next season for $14m rather than holding out. But unless they’re going to pay him like a #1 WR, he’s gone after that.

    So coming back to the 2020 strategy again, if you don’t think Cooper will become the top-10 WR he seemed destined to be when he was a rookie, there’s a lot to be said for flipping him for a 2nd round pick if the opportunity presents itself.
     
  39. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    And after they move the last Oakland years "won't count" anyway because of shiny new fans, then he'll have 3 more years to raise the ghost of Bronko Nagurski to play the right way.
    Maybe Davis wants to win. But "just make money, baby" will do fine.
     
  40. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    What reason is there to think the Raiders are well set up to compete in the 2020s? Carr has not played well this season and may not be "the guy" moving forward. They are getting very, very little out of the 2015-2017 drafts (the first-rounders have all been benched / on the block and the second rounders have all been cut / traded). They do not especially have a lot of cap space. Who are the cornerstones of this team? Having draft picks is great, but they basically have to start from scratch. The talent is terrible, and they're going to compete against teams who have actual good players currently on their teams.
     
  41. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    That’s a good point. I haven’t watched the Raiders enough to say whether Carr looks bad or has been the victim of a bad team and/or SSS luck. (He’s leading the league in INTs, but that’s a highly variable stat over a 6-game sample. His completion percentage is as good as ever.) But even if you give Carr the benefit of the doubt this season, it’s increasingly clear that his 2016 season was an aberration, and he’s getting paid as though 2016 reflected his true ability level. As we’ve seen many times before, you can win a title with an average QB, but you can’t win one with an average QB consuming more than 10% of your budget.

    But if you’re right about how bad the Raiders are, that’s all the more reason not to keep Khalil Mack and (to a lesser extent) Amari Cooper around. There’s lots of examples of teams that were as bad as the Raiders are now who managed to turn things around over a 3-year period, but the majority of Mack’s elite years will be behind him by then, and Cooper isn’t likely to create value in excess of the contract the Raiders will have to give him to retain him (though you will need some veteran talent on that future team, and Cooper’s contract won’t be crippling if his game doesn’t age well).
     
  42. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    It's pretty clear that 2016 season was aberrant in a lot of ways. They finished 7th in scoring but only 13th in NY/A, which is a more repeatable offensive metric. They went 12-4 but their point differential was only +31, more suggestive of a 9-7 team.

    I think we are starting to see some tanking around the league as teams take advantage of the ability to roll over cap space. We don't really have any success stories from tanking yet, however. My inclination is that it's tough to fill 22 starters (and ~35 game day contributors, plus depth) with rookie contracts and veteran presence needs to be a significant component. Gruden hasn't shied away from veterans, but he also hasn't gotten much production out of them, either. I don't think the Raiders are tanking, but their moves over the past 8 months or whatever have been curious, at best.
     
  43. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    The Jaguars deliberately bottomed out about 5 years ago. They’d be a tremendous success story if they had found a way to address the QB position. The Browns seem like they’re on a similar trajectory, though like JAX, I think they’ll need to move on from their current coach before they make the leap. But those are exceptions; I agree with your larger point. Culture is so important in football, and with 53 men on the roster, it can’t be built overnight. A lot more teams have staged successful turnarounds through a sustained attempt to win than by tanking.
     
  44. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    The Browns definitely were tanking for the first year or two under Sashi Brown, getting rid of their established players and accumulating as many draft picks. I don't think Jacksonville was tanking - they were just that bad. They used top ten picks in consecutive drafts on Blaine Gabbert, Justin Blackmon, and Luke Joeckel. They didn't accumulate picks. Eugene Monroe is probably the biggest "name" they jettisoned, and they signed vets like Paul Posluszny, Julius Thomas, and Zane Beadles. They were pretty far under the cap, but that might have been just not having good players to keep. I think we are starting to see something different happen with the Browns, Colts, 49ers, and Jets, maybe the Bills.
     
  45. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    A actual quote from Gruden just now

    Gruden: ”I’ve been accused my whole life of hating rookies and liking old players. Now I’m playing I think 10 rookies. What do you say to that, America?“”
     
  46. Seels

    Seels Member SoSH Member

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    2,181
    Gruden wasn't a good coach his first time around. He did one thing well, ride Tony Dungy's defense. I'm not sure why / how he got a 10 year deal aside from luckily stumbling upon the resurrected Rich Gannon.

    Sports teams hiring retreads like Gruden never ceases to amaze me.
     
  47. DourDoerr

    DourDoerr Well-Known Member Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Gruden was "Chucky" (as in the horror movie) out here in the East Bay and he got the Raiders out of a rut. His teams gave Raiders fans something to cheer about after a decade of mediocre-to-bad football. He had a whiff of the rebel and had Al Davis' blessing. He could do little wrong in their eyes.
     
  48. bsj

    bsj Renegade Crazed Genius SoSH Member

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    That you are overpaid if you take your cues from Fuckface McGee in section 316?
     
  49. Bosoxen

    Bosoxen Bounced back Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  50. jcd0805

    jcd0805 Member SoSH Member

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