Even if Chiefs lose twice, the Chargers would need to lose a game as well.
Yep. But LAC have at KC, vs Bal, at Den to finish the year. So just for fun...
1. KC 11-2 - vs LAC (L), at Sea (L), vs Oak (W) - 12-4
2. NE 9-4 - at Pit (W), vs Buf (W), vs NYJ (W) - 12-4
3. Hou 9-4 - at NYJ (W), at Phi (W), vs Jax (W) - 12-4
4. Pit 7-5-1 - vs NE (L), at NO (L), vs Cin (W) - 8-7-1
5. LAC 10-3 - at KC (W), vs Bal (W), at Den (L) - 12-4
6. Bal 7-6 - vs TB (W), at LAC (L), vs Cle (W) - 9-7
7. Ind 7-6 - vs Dal (L), vs NYG (W), at Ten (W) - 9-7
8. Mia 7-6 - at Min (L), vs Jax (W), at Buf (W) - 9-7
9. Ten 7-6 - at NYG (L), vs Was (W), vs Ind (L) - 8-8
NE would have the tiebreaker over KC and Hou. But first LAC and KC would need to have a tiebreaker for division winner. If it played out like this, KC would be 5-1 in the division, while LAC would be 3-3 in the division, which would give the tiebreaker to KC. So the Chargers would need to two more games than KC in order to catch them for the division (as you said above, only in different words). The above scenario would leave Pittsburgh out of the playoffs, and NE as the #1 seed.
Honestly, this is not crazy. It's a lot that needs to happen, but every one of those things is reasonable. Maybe LAC loses at home to Baltimore and not on the road at Denver, but I think them upsetting KC next week and then losing one of their two remaining games, while KC also loses at Seattle, is quite possible.
Of course, the Pats need to take care of business. They win out, they're guaranteed the #2 seed no matter what. But the above scenario would leave the seeds as:
1. NE
2. KC
3. Hou (not sure which of those teams would be the 2 and which would be the 3)
4. Bal
5. LAC
6. Ind or Mia
LAC at Bal would be a slugfest. Hou or KC takes care of the #6 seed, meaning that the Bal-LAC winner would travel to Foxboro for the divisional round. Either way, that's a very difficult assignment.
Anyway, fun to play with, tons of speculation and "what ifs", but the bottom line is that NE needs to win out, get at least the #2 seed, and maybe get the #1 if things break right.