I see a pretty big difference between taking a RB at 2, when you have a rare opportunity to add talent at premium positions, and taking an RB at 31, when you have a choice between a (potentially) terrific player at a less-premium position and a second- or third- tier player at a premium position. Positional value is real, but I don't put a lot of stock on it after the top 15-20 picks of the first round, and apparently neither does Belichick (who has consistently invested in non-premium positions like safety and TE).They were transparent about Barkley as the Pats were cagy about Lamar, and the criticism built the past couple of weeks. Gettleman is venting.
There would be a withering counter-attack here, but pick # 31 makes it a bit awkward.
Yeah but here's the thing. Elite RBs make more than 2m a year after they hit free agency. Good RBs make more than that usually (again post free agency). Saquon is going to make $31,489,725 over the course of his contract while the bill for Sony Michel is $9,698,868. Sure, it's not the kind of *potential* value gap you'd get if you selected a premiere 3-down defensive tackle at 31 but it's also not in the same league of bad decisions as paying 31 million dollars to draft an RB.They were transparent about Barkley as the Pats were cagy about Lamar, and the criticism built the past couple of weeks. Gettleman is venting.
There would be a withering counter-attack here, but pick # 31 makes it a bit awkward.
http://www.footballperspective.com/how-to-determine-the-appropriate-salary-cap-values-for-veterans-part-ii/Interesting post, SMU. It makes me wonder - in baseball, we have WAR and we have a pretty good idea what one "win" is worth in terms of dollars. Right now, roughly $7.5 million. Is there a football equivalent that can help us determine a player's value? For example, given what you just posted, it means that Barkley will cost of the life of his contract 3.24 times as much as Michel. Can we measure, at the end of five years, whether Barkley produced 3.24 times the value as Michel? How is this done in football? Any idea?
The Jaguars offense that just one week before put up 45 on a Steelers defense that was on a role for the last half of the year?They made the Jaguars' very pedestrian offense look unstoppable in the AFC title game. The defense needs help. Hightower comes back, but he isn't helping with the lack of speed and athleticism. Maybe Rivers and the acquisitions on the D Line make a big difference.
Cool, thanks. But jumping in, I have a serious question right off the bat. It says, "Each NFL team generates about 201 points of Approximate Value per season, or 6,440 points of AV per season in the 32-team era."http://www.footballperspective.com/how-to-determine-the-appropriate-salary-cap-values-for-veterans-part-ii/
This is probably the best methodology I've seen, but is subject to flaws and questions in the AV system.
I probably would have gone with Chubb at 2. Nobody can convince me they “had” to go with a QB, even though the Giants have picked this high maybe 5 times in the common draft era.I see a pretty big difference between taking a RB at 2, when you have a rare opportunity to add talent at premium positions, and taking an RB at 31, when you have a choice between a (potentially) terrific player at a less-premium position and a second- or third- tier player at a premium position. Positional value is real, but I don't put a lot of stock on it after the top 15-20 picks of the first round, and apparently neither does Belichick (who has consistently invested in non-premium positions like safety and TE).
I hope you are right. But that Steelers defense sucked ass, especially after Shazier went down. Poor example.The Jaguars offense that just one week before put up 45 on a Steelers defense that was on a role for the last half of the year?
The defense needs help, but they are getting back a ton of talent from injury and will probably get some more help at some point in the draft + who they signed in FA.
Things are not as dire as people are making them out to be.
I think he phrased that incorrectly; I don't think it's true. You can read more about AV at:Cool, thanks. But jumping in, I have a serious question right off the bat. It says, "Each NFL team generates about 201 points of Approximate Value per season, or 6,440 points of AV per season in the 32-team era."
How can that possibly be true? How can a 13-3 Patriots team produce the same AV as 0-16 Cleveland?
The Steelers D was up-and-down. FWIW Jacksonville had a fumble return TD, another TD drive that was 18 yards after a TO, and a FG drive that was 9 yards after a turnover on downs, so it was more like 28 points (albeit on fewer drives). That's still very good, but it's not the dominant offensive performance 45 suggests.The Jaguars offense that just one week before put up 45 on a Steelers defense that was on a role for the last half of the year?
Is it dire? No, they will be fine against bad offenses, and the offensive efficiency will continue to make the defense look better than it is. But they have problems. I'm not seeing "a ton of talent" coming back from injury. It's Hightower and a bunch of question marks. Hopefully a couple pan out, but I'd love a couple dice rolls via the draft also - especially athleticism up front, which has been a problem for years.The defense needs help, but they are getting back a ton of talent from injury and will probably get some more help at some point in the draft + who they signed in FA.
Things are not as dire as people are making them out to be.
I guess this is the crux of my issue. I don't really believe in a RB as a "transformational player." Or any non-QB; maybe you could talk me into a dominant DL, or a LB in the kind of defense like Carolina's that's really dependent on the position. There's a great chance Barkley is a terrific RB and an excellent special teams player. That will help, but he is only one of 22(/46/53), and there are a lot of needs on a team that went 3-13 last year. If I'm picking that high, I need a player at a premium position, or I want to trade down like Indy did and pick up multiple picks to add talent in multiple places. Maybe the offers weren't there; I don't know. I thought Gettleman was terrific in Carolina but I have not been a fan of his moves so far in NY/NJ.But it’s far from a massive eff up IMO. Barkley could well be a transformational player.
Yeah, Schrager said this about 20 mins ago on NFLN. Pats met with him, in case he fell.
What are we arguing here? The Patriots made average quarterbacks look amazing last year because they couldn't generate any pass rush and couldn't cover backs. Maybe Derek Rivers and the FA signings help that, maybe not.The Jaguars offense that just one week before put up 45 on a Steelers defense that was on a role for the last half of the year?
The defense needs help, but they are getting back a ton of talent from injury and will probably get some more help at some point in the draft + who they signed in FA.
Things are not as dire as people are making them out to be.
They have like four LB who are fine as long as they are the second-fast LB out there (Hightower, Van Noy, Roberts, Flowers) but the problem is they don't have anyone faster.What are we arguing here? The Patriots made average quarterbacks look amazing last year because they couldn't generate any pass rush and couldn't cover backs. Maybe Derek Rivers and the FA signings help that, maybe not.
But we saw enough of Kyle Van Noy as a key contributor last year to know that steps should be taken to avoid that happening again.
I think this sums it up quite succinctly.They have like four LB who are fine as long as they are the second-fast LB out there (Hightower, Van Noy, Roberts, Flowers) but the problem is they don't have anyone faster.
I think they're very high on Langi who was pretty quick at the combine in the shuttles. If he comes back 100% that's another linebacker with some speed.They have like four LB who are fine as long as they are the second-fast LB out there (Hightower, Van Noy, Roberts, Flowers) but the problem is they don't have anyone faster.
Why do you think that? Is that based on anything or is it just wishful thinking? Clearly, they liked him enough to sign him as a UDFA (with big guarantees), but not enough that they made sure to get him by using a draft pick, then we saw nothing from him, then he got in that terrible car accident and we have no idea where he's at. By actions, I'm not seeing anything more than Zach Moore or Steve Beauharnais or any number of redshirt guys. IMO expecting much from him is wishcasting, but I guess they haven't brought in any competition.I think they're very high on Langi who was pretty quick at the combine in the shuttles. If he comes back 100% that's another linebacker with some speed.
Accurate assessment excepting it is important to note the usage of the 95 on Brown only nets them 1 year of guaranteed control versus the standard rookie contract (plus the 2019 2nd rounder you accounted for). This as mentioned above may be strategic given the likely compensation (3rd round?) if Brown exits via free agency.So the Pats entered the draft with four picks in the first two rounds. They ended up using three of them. Here are the trades they made:
Give: #95
Get: OT Brown, #143
Give: #43
Get: #51, #117
Give: #51
Get: #105, 2019 2nd round pick
Give: #63, #117
Get: #56
So the net result is:
Had:
#23
#31
#43
#63
#95
#198
#210
#219
Now have:
#23 - OL Wynn
#31 - RB Michel
#56 - CB Dawson
#105
#143
#198
#210
#219
OT Brown
Chicago's 2nd round pick in 2019
Same number of picks in 2018 as before, but basically instead of #43, #63, and #95, they have #56, #105, and #143. Significant steps back in the draft order on all three counts. But in exchange for dropping back in those three rounds, they added a very, very good offensive tackle in Brown, plus Chicago's 2nd round pick in 2019. And it seems they drafted quality players they wanted in Wynn, Michel, and Dawson.
So you can kind of view it as a pick = a player. They had opportunities the first two days to add four players. Well, they've added four players. Two excellent offensive linemen, a stud RB, and a solid corner. And now they have five picks today, and they originally had just four picks scheduled for today. Plus they added Chicago's 2nd round pick next year, which could likely be a top 5, maybe top 10 pick in the round.
Seems like a solid way to do the draft if you ask me.
Yep, good point. Or heck, maybe they sign him to an extension...who knows? He's just 25, and he's already really good. Might not be the worst use of $$. We shall see. I just feel like it's important (for me anyway!) to size up what's actually happened so far because as "boring" as the first day was (the Pats just...uh...used their picks and that was that), yesterday was pretty hectic with the trades, and I wanted to see where it all shook out. I think they're in really good shape.Accurate assessment excepting it is important to note the usage of the 95 on Brown only nets them 1 year of guaranteed control versus the standard rookie contract (plus the 2019 2nd rounder you accounted for). This as mentioned above may be strategic given the likely compensation (3rd round?) if Brown exits via free agency.
Patriots only had 4 picks last year, now maybe they could have traded in, but that's not something they usually do. He came in as the highest bonus UDFA of the year and made the 53, that in itself shows they liked him quite a bit. Additionally they seem to plan to keep him this season as well having cut McClellin instead of him.Why do you think that? Is that based on anything or is it just wishful thinking? Clearly, they liked him enough to sign him as a UDFA (with big guarantees), but not enough that they made sure to get him by using a draft pick, then we saw nothing from him, then he got in that terrible car accident and we have no idea where he's at. By actions, I'm not seeing anything more than Zach Moore or Steve Beauharnais or any number of redshirt guys. IMO expecting much from him is wishcasting, but I guess they haven't brought in any competition.
We have reason to vent?People need to take a deep breath and relax. If the Pats don't address the defense today, then you have reason to vent, but if Wynn can stick at OT, you've got someone to protect the edge. Michel looks to be a more versatile version of Dion Lewis, with a better ability to run between the tackles.
For defensive players, there are still a ton of guys that I like:
DL: Landry, Phillips, BJ Hill, Nnadi, Hurst, Hubbard
LB: Nwosu, Carter, Jefferson
CB: Jackson, Oliver, Davis
S: Reid, Harrison
Pats have picks 43/63 in R2 and 95 in R3. I could see them moving any of those picks to move back and pick up an additional 4/5th rounder.
It tells me they liked him enough to bring him in as a UDFA and enough to keep him on the roster for a few weeks anyway (was his accident definitely serious enough that he couldn't come back - or did they just decide to redshirt him once they had an excuse to). It doesn't tell me anything about his chances of making the 2018 team, and it certainly doesn't tell me anything about his chances of playing a role this year. We've seen guys do zero year one and make an impact year two, but for every Trey Flowerses there are probably ten Steve Beauharnais / Justin Francis / Chris Jones / Darryl Roberts / Geneo Grissom / etc.Patriots only had 4 picks last year, now maybe they could have traded in, but that's not something they usually do. He came in as the highest bonus UDFA of the year and made the 53, that in itself shows they liked him quite a bit. Additionally they seem to plan to keep him this season as well having cut McClellin instead of him.