2018 NFCCG: Eagles v. Vikings
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ESPN with a salient point
Philadelphia's home-field advantage matters more than you might realize. The past eight NFC/AFC title games have all been won by the home team. Just as important: Consider that the Vikings have won only three road playoff games in the 35 years since they moved into an indoor home stadium in 1982. Every team is different, of course, but a clear trend over that long of a timeframe -- three victories in 15 total road playoff games over that span -- is revealing. This season, two of the Vikings’ three losses came on the road on grass outdoor fields. The grass at Lincoln Financial Field was noticeably slippery in the Eagles' divisional-round matchup with the Falcons. These are not trivial matters.
Philadelphia's home-field advantage matters more than you might realize. The past eight NFC/AFC title games have all been won by the home team. Just as important: Consider that the Vikings have won only three road playoff games in the 35 years since they moved into an indoor home stadium in 1982. Every team is different, of course, but a clear trend over that long of a timeframe -- three victories in 15 total road playoff games over that span -- is revealing. This season, two of the Vikings’ three losses came on the road on grass outdoor fields. The grass at Lincoln Financial Field was noticeably slippery in the Eagles' divisional-round matchup with the Falcons. These are not trivial matters.
Waiting for updated DVOA rankings after this weekend's games. Vikings were better in weighted DVOA (29.3% to 22.9%), with most of the difference coming from the offense (12.8% to 6.7%). I think it comes down to which defense is more tired toward the end, and which QB makes fewer mistakes.
I love the NFL. most competitive NFC field in years and it ends up being the top two seeds with lower-tier QBs at the end anyways (albeit Keenum is good for what he is)
Fierce defense, big potent WR, and, oh yeah, THE SUPERBOWL IS IN FUCKING MINNESOTA.
Go Eagles.
Lotta first round picks set on fire there. Imagine how good they’d be if they’d spent them wisely.
Teddy Bridgewater was a hell of a QB before he got injured. The fact he was deactivated before today’s game (after serving as backup for 2 months) tells me that he’s not close to the same QB and that his days in Minnesota are probably numbered.
Meh, hard to predict Case Keenum being good and Bridgewater almost losing his leg. Sammy Sleeves getting hurt and being mediocre on the other hand...
So the ticket breakdown is:
• 17.5% to each team
• 5% to the host team
• 34.8% divides up among all the other teams
• 25.2% to the NFL and generally goes to corporate sponsors and media
So the home field advantage may not be too bad.
Presumably the secondary market will change those percentages, and if the locals are both extra motivated and also don't have to pay for flights and hotels so they can throw those savings at the tickets alone, pretty easy to imagine a fairly Vikings-heavy crowd.
Go Eagles if the Pats take care of business first, otherwise go Vikings, that fan base deserves a Super Bowl berth, at least
The NFC was supposed.to get the visiting locker room. For some.inexplicable reason NFL will reverse this if Vikings make it.
AFC was supposed.to get the Vikings practice facility. This will also get reversed.
Plus the Vikings get to sleep.in their own beds and avoid travel. It's work, not a vacation.
Home field advantage has little to do with what happens after the game starts.
Go eagles.
Teddy has potential to be an elite QB, but he certainly hasn't shown it in the small amount of time he's played:
Over 28 games started (30 total), he's had an ANYPA of 5.5, with an INT% around 2.5. Of course, this was as a 22 and 23 year old, so it'll be interesting to see what happens with him in 2018.
Case Keenum looked worse as a 25 and 26 year old for the Texans, but he looked much better as a 27 year old for the terrible 2015 Rams (6.47 ANYPA). Including this year with minnesota (~ 7 ANYPA), Case has a career 6 ANYPA.
In other words, Case Keenum just put up a season-long performance better than Matt Ryan's; this is something Bridgewater has never done, though he's never really been given the opportunity to do so.
I’m not sure what point you are trying to make.
I did not claim that Bridgewater was an elite QB. I claimed that he was a “hell of a QB” based on the fact that his athleticism was unquestioned and his talent was beginning to blossom.
I should add that using combined stats from Bridgewater’s age 22 and 23 seasons to evaluate his potential is a bit misleading, since his performance was on an upward trajectory.
The larger point is that his potential to become an elite QB was closely aligned with his athleticism. The Vikings have had 2 months to judge his recovery in practice since he was activated and they responded by making him inactive for yesterday’s game. It is incredibly unlikely that he will be with them going forward.
Keenum had a good year. He’s also a known quantity at age 30. He will never be an elite QB. But he’s likely to be the Vikings’ QB going forward.
I mean...it sort of is. The event is supposed to be at a neutral site. It always has been. The league should, you would think, be working overtime to do what it can to level the field in what may be a highly unprecedented situation (particularly considering that was the original plan). THey should both be in an unusual environment, no?
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I'm not convinced this is true at all.
Home field advantage is more plausibly related to referees subconsciously calling more penalties on away teams, home teams not having to deal with crowd noise on offense, and the subconscious benefits of playing in a familiar environment for players making split second instinctual decisions on every play.
Assuming the tickets end up being split fairly evenly, I don't think the first two factors will be in play. The third is inescapable though.
Where you practice or sleep seem likely to be much less significant factors, especially during Super Bowl week, when teams travel early.
Athleticism? Bridgewater's not a bad athlete, but he's pretty much a pocket guy. He had 170 total rushing yards in three years of college. His NFL.com profile coming out said "Adequate athlete. Is not an overly elusive scrambler -- struggles escaping the rush and buying a second chance with his feet vs. pressure."
Athleticism is not always a euphemism for “a quarterback who rushes the ball.”
Anyway, I’m done having my words picked apart over a team that I’m not even rooting for.
#FlyEaglesFly
You mean the one they blow on a penalty vs the other team too?
The Vikings in the 1970's used to be a stoic, old school franchise; now they are a bunch of yahoos, the turnaround is pathetic and sad.
Eagles with HFA versus a dome team who is already, no doubt, making all sorts of mental plans for friends and family etc. to attend the Super Bowl? I mean, how can Minny NOT be at least peeking past this game? Bet the house on Philly: 21-17
But should it not go that way, I have zero problem playing Minny in Minny. We love 'us against the world.'
Should we so fortunate to be there, that is...
But should it not go that way, I have zero problem playing Minny in Minny. We love 'us against the world.'
Should we so fortunate to be there, that is...
I can't provide a link, but read in the last couple of days the league has a plan in place to reduce home field advantage if necessary. Things like requiring Minn to lodge in a hotel rather stay at home. Ensuring they use a different practice/training facility so it isn't comfortable, etc. We'll see how it plays out of course.
Yeah I thought this too but recently have red some.things that lead me to.think they will.not.do this
Vikings 9-7 on the road over last two seasons. Includes a 21-10 loss @ Philly last year.
Eagles 14-3 at home last two seasons.
Less relevant but Minnesota 3-12 on the road in playoffs overall.
I like the Eagles chances on being the team that gets to lose to the Pats in the bowl.
Eagles 14-3 at home last two seasons.
Less relevant but Minnesota 3-12 on the road in playoffs overall.
I like the Eagles chances on being the team that gets to lose to the Pats in the bowl.
I was just going to say, escaping the annual 3am hotel fire alarm pull would be pretty unfair.
I thought this too but I think it was only because the penalty resulted in a first down. That said they blow that thing too often.
Thanks for the correction, wasn't aware of that. Makes sense I guess, a positive result.
I can't speak to the MN facility but it is a known fact Gillette is built to disadvantage the away team. The tunnel for the away team takes you around the stadium adding a few min to the time it takes to get to the locker room compared to the Pats who walk almost directly into the locker room from the sidelines. When you only have 15min at half-time an extra 3-5min is certainly valuable. Obviously in the SB you have a longer half-time so that advantage is diminished but I'd be very surprised if a brand new stadium wasn't built to give the home team a more advantageous locker room experience. Then again this is MN so perhaps the away locker room is the place to be.
Back when I lived there (‘86 -‘89) they blew the horn after every action/occurrence that could be interpreted as being positive for the Vikings.
The NFL controls the facility for the Super Bowl. There is not going to be a horn.
Is it a real Gjallarhorn they blow, too bad they don't play outdoors anymore as there's a good shot of it shattering to pieces like the time it did vs Seattle, wasn't the air temperature below zero for that game?
This, plus, I've read several studies that indicate a very large component of home field advantage is simply familiarity with one's surroundings and that people put too much stock in the effect of the crowd. This makes a lot of sense to me.
Edit: I see this has been covered.
No. the SI piece made it clear that originally the AFC was going to get the Vikings facilities, and NFC was to practice at a college. The NFL does everything they can to make accommodations comparable, but if Vikings are in it, all of it will be flipped and Vikings would use own facility.
they don’t mention locker room in the piece that I remember.
Fair enough, my apologies. I took "hell of a QB" to mean that he's an elite NFL QB. If you meant that he had the potential to become elite, then I agree entirely.
However, the bolded above is absurd. Adjusting for league average, here is how Teddy improved in the following categories (by percentage points relative to the league -- positive numbers indicate improvement): YPA: -1, NYPA: -4, AYPA: +4, Completion Rate: +2, TD rate: -4, INT rate: +14, sack rate: -4, ANYPA: +1, QB rating: +3. For the stats I cited above, Teddy went from 5.46 ANYPA to 5.7; in the context of league averages, interpreting this as an increase is a stretch.
While Teddy showed a big improvement in his interception rate, his 2014 rate of 3.0 percent was likely unsustainable. Furthermore, this reduction in picks was somewhat mitigated by an increase in fumbles lost (from 3 over 13 games to 8 over 16 games); regardless, most of his performance was stable over the course of the season. He also threw 5 fewer attempts per game and averaged 20 yards fewer per game. The vikings did score an extra 40 points in his second year, but I suspect that increase had more to do with Adrian Peterson's return than any putative improvement from Bridgewater.
Both the drop in attempts and improvements in running game should improve a QB's performance independent of any improvement in ability, yet his performance was effectively identical. Therefore, there is little evidence (if any) that Bridgewater had an upwards trajectory, and a great deal of evidence that he showed no improvement from his 22 to 23 year season (making his career stats perfectly reasonable to cite and not misleading at all). His potential was driven almost entirely by his age and pedigree.
For the Vikings, Keenum may be sufficient. if he plays like he did this year (I'm skeptical but its possible Case has never been in the right system until now), he'd be around the level of matt ryan or Ben Rothlesberger. With this Vikings defense, Keenum may be sufficient to be an annual contender for the next 3-5 years.
Keenum, Bridgewater and Bradford are all up for UFA after this year. Bridgewater would have to perform leaps and bounds to match Keenum's performance this year or even bradford's performance from last year. However, he may be cheaper on a long term deal (not to mention a bit younger). Even if he's looked good in 2 months of practice, bradford is a warm body that played well in the same offense last (and start of this) season. it probably didn't make sense to put TB back in and risk losing a QB of the future. The inactivation doesn't necessarily reflect on his lack of current ability, so much the fact that all three are fungible, and Sam is the most of all (since it is highly unlikely he'll be back).
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I don’t know about you guys, but Keenum’s performance on Sunday didn’t really pass the eye test. He threw some really questionable passes that were fortunate to not have ended up as INTs and his receivers did make some great plays on the ball to turn awkward passes into big plays. His interception was one of the worst throws of the season by any QB and I just don’t have a ton of confidence in him playing on the road this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned it over three times.
I felt the same. He made some very poor decisions that luckily didn't come back to bite him.
Keenum could turn it over 3X and MN may still win the T/O battle. Foles showed nothing vs a pedestrian ATL D. MN is going to be a significantly tougher match-up. He doesn't have the arm, accuracy or mobility to make plays against them.
What is the record for combined punts in a conference championship? I think it could be broken Sunday.
I don’t agree that Foles showed nothing. There were a few good plays in there. But overall I agree that neither QB is likely to cover themselves in glory.
Record for combined punts in a modern-era NFC playoff game is 21 - Rams vs Bears in ‘85. That’ll be tough to match, but if any game could see it happen I think this one would be it.
Record for combined punts in a modern-era NFC playoff game is 21 - Rams vs Bears in ‘85. That’ll be tough to match, but if any game could see it happen I think this one would be it.