2018 NBA offseason thread

Sam Ray Not

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Except for that nasty little fact of Anthony being a surefire HOFer at the same of the signing as Beasley was being waived by Phoenix, Miami, and Memphis over a 12 month period. Maybe they are the same player now but Carmelo is at the tail end of his rope......Beasley was never in the same league up until now.
I mean, he was a "surefire hall of famer" at least partly due to the overvaluing of PPG; and partly due to the fact that he landed in two stable situations where he was allowed/encouraged to gobble up touches and usage, and launch shots pretty much to his heart's content. He's always been rather Beasley-esque in terms of actually playing winning basketball (playing unselfishly, scoring efficiently, playing both ends of the floor, e.g.) By adjusted plus-minus measures, I'm pretty sure he's never ranked as a top 15 player in any given season. At his peak, I suspect he was a bit better than Beasley is now, but his current contract seemed obviously terrible at the time he signed it (to me, anyway).

Given the similarity of their games and where they were picked, it is interesting (to me) to ponder how differently their careers might have gone had their circumstances been slightly different. I'm sure Beasley's own knuckle-headedness has contributed to his underperformance, but I'd guess there are other factors, too (KState didn't win him an instant sports media fanbase the way NYC/ Syracuse did for 'Melo; his teams may have had inadequate coaching and/or veteran player mentorship, etc.)

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see where Beasley lands, and if he's managed to salvage his reputation enough to gets anything more than a minimum contract. He is BFFs with KD from childhood in Maryland; I won't be shocked if KD puts in a good word to Myers about him as a potential Swaggy/Casspi replacement on a vet min deal.
 
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Sam Ray Not

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Celtics interest: 1. Baynes 2. O'Quinn 3. Len

How about your Warriors, any interest in Baynes or the above to pair with Bell? Zaza, West, McGee all gone?
From comments Bob Myers had made about needing to get younger, I'm assuming Zaza and West are moving on, and McGee is probably 50/50. They'd love to keep Looney, unless someone outbids them for his services (all they can offer is him is $2.2M option year they somewhat foolishly declined last year).

That'll likely leave at least one big man spot to fill. Not sure if they'll go for a big or a wing with their MLE (assuming they use it) but if they go big, I'd imagine both Baynes and O'Quinn are very high on their list (as I suspect was Dedmon, till the Hawks picked up his option).

Then there's the Dwight wildcard, but I can't imagine a team in their position would want to take on that kind of a potential headache, even at the vet min. (Yeah, I know I just raised the possibility of Beasley, but at least Beasley is Durant's BFF, whereas Durant once famously called Howard a p-word).
 

HomeRunBaker

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Celtics interest: 1. Baynes 2. O'Quinn 3. Len

How about your Warriors, any interest in Baynes or the above to pair with Bell? Zaza, West, McGee all gone?
Keep an eye on Alan Williams who faces a July 6th cut date by Phoenix to save them over $5m. He broke out two years ago with 11/9 over the final 25 games then tore up his knee just after signing his 3/$16m deal. He could be a cheap replacement on a deal similar to what Baynes signed last year.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I mean, he was a "surefire hall of famer" at least partly due to the overvaluing of PPG; and partly due to the fact that he landed in two stable situations where he was allowed/encouraged to gobble up touches and usage, and launch shots pretty much to his heart's content. He's always been rather Beasley-esque in terms of actually playing winning basketball (playing unselfishly, scoring efficiently, playing both ends of the floor, e.g.) By adjusted plus-minus measures, I'm pretty sure he's never ranked as a top 15 player in any given season. At his peak, I suspect he was a bit better than Beasley is now, but his current contract seemed obviously terrible at the time he signed it (to me, anyway).

Given the similarity of their games and where they were picked, it is interesting (to me) to ponder how differently their careers might have gone had their circumstances been slightly different. I'm sure Beasley's own knuckle-headedness has contributed to his underperformance, but I'd guess there are other factors, too (KState didn't win him an instant sports media fanbase the way NYC/ Syracuse did for 'Melo; his teams may have had inadequate coaching and/or veteran player mentorship, etc.)

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see where Beasley lands, and if he's managed to salvage his reputation enough to gets anything more than a minimum contract. He is BFFs with KD from childhood in Maryland; I won't be shocked if KD puts in a good word to Myers about him as a potential Swaggy/Casspi replacement on a vet min deal.
I know Carmelo is universally hated around here but he was a Top-10 player in this league when he was in Denver carrying them through the WC playoffs in his prime. Pierce just called him his toughest guard ever. Yeah he was "a bit better" than the guy nobody wanted during this same period.
 

benhogan

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Keep an eye on Alan Williams who faces a July 6th cut date by Phoenix to save them over $5m. He broke out two years ago with 11/9 over the final 25 games then tore up his knee just after signing his 3/$16m deal. He could be a cheap replacement on a deal similar to what Baynes signed last year.
OK, add him to the growing cheap veteran BIG list:
Baynes
O'Quinn
Len
A Williams
Mejri
Noel
Montrez Harrell
Nogueirga
Bertans
Okafor
Monroe
Tolliver
Zeller
Howard
McGee
West
Zaza
Ed Davis
Speights
Booker

pricier BIGs: Cousins, Capella, Jordan, Randle, Favors
 

DJnVa

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I know Carmelo is universally hated around here but he was a Top-10 player in this league when he was in Denver carrying them through the WC playoffs in his prime.
I'm not a Carmelo hater by any stretch, but in his 7 postseasons in Denver he lost in the first round in 6 of them and had a 17-30 record.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Question, probably stupid, but why are some posters consistently writing “BIG”? Is there an acronym I’m not aware of? Autocorrect? Do people think we don’t understand that a ‘big’ is a tall guy? Like, capitalizing the three letters drives the point home?

Asking for a friend...
 

Sam Ray Not

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I know Carmelo is universally hated around here but he was a Top-10 player in this league when he was in Denver carrying them through the WC playoffs in his prime.
Eh, I'm dubious. People assume he "carried" those teams cos he took a bunch of shots and scored a bunch of points. His teammates in those years included in-their-primes Marcus Camby, Andre Miller, Allen Iverson, Chauncey Billups, Kenyon Martin, Chris Andersen, Nene Hilario, JR Smith, Arron Afflalo, Danilo Gallinari, Ty Lawson — most of whom rated better than 'Melo by metrics which attempt to measure individual impact on the scoreboard.

I don't put too much stock in any single plus-minus measure, or any given season, since plus-minus results can be super-noisy. But the overall advanced metrics about 'Melo are unequivocal: he's never been a top 10 player in terms of impact on wins, or anywhere close. One could surmise that he's getting unfairly dinged for being a high-volume scorer — shot-creation does have value — but plenty of other high-volume guys (Kobe, LeBron, Harden, Westbrook, e.g.) have rated highly by plus-minus measures, where Melo never has.

Here's one RAPM archive I dug up:

NBA top 10 by RAPM, 2006-13 (i.e. Melo's 3rd-10th seasons)

2013: LeBron, Tony Parker, Garnett, Griffin, Harden, Taj Gibson, CP3, Vince Carter, Amir Johnson, Wade (Melo #98)
2012: n/a
2011: Nowitzki, Ginobili, Garnett, LeBron, Collison, Nash, CP3, Dwight, Wade, Deng (Melo #71)
2010: LeBron, Wade, Nash, Kobe, Howard, Collison, Bogut, Garnett, Bosh, Deron (Melo #43)
2009: LeBron, Garnett, Odom, Wade, Kobe, CP3, Rashard Lewis, Nash, Kidd, Yao (Melo #33)
2008: Garnett, Ginobili, Nash, Duncan, LeBron, Kobe, Nowitzki, Pierce, Bosh, Baron Davis (Melo #209)
2007: Duncan, LeBron, Ginobili, Garnett, Nash, Nowitzki, Baron Davis, Kobe, Wade, Arenas (Melo #129)
2006: Wade, Duncan, Ginobili. Artest, Nowitzki, Kobe, LeBron, Kirilenko, Battier, Nash (Melo #182)

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/
 
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snowmanny

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Question, probably stupid, but why are some posters consistently writing “BIG”? Is there an acronym I’m not aware of? Autocorrect? Do people think we don’t understand that a ‘big’ is a tall guy? Like, capitalizing the three letters drives the point home?

Asking for a friend...
Isn't it just one poster?
 

bigq

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Jul 15, 2005
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Except for that nasty little fact of Anthony being a surefire HOFer at the same of the signing
Was he really ever a sure fire HOFer? I know he had some good years and the basketball HOF has an open door policy but I don’t recall him being dominant enough to justify HOF consideration.

Edit: looks like Sam Ray Not answered the question pretty well.
 

luckiestman

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Jul 15, 2005
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Was he really ever a sure fire HOFer? I know he had some good years and the basketball HOF has an open door policy but I don’t recall him being dominant enough to justify HOF consideration.

Edit: looks like Sam Ray Not answered the question pretty well.

Melo is going to the HOF. 6x all NBA (no first team) and 10x all star.


Edit: also 3 Olympic gold medals
 

PedroKsBambino

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I have been relatively negative on Carmelo for several years now, and I think he's been overrated longer than that. But, earlier in his career he was a terrific player and a top-10 kind of guy, imo. He was a tremendous scorer, and versatile offensively, while being a solid passer and could generate his own offense late--always a key skill and one that's hard to measure.

But, as those skills waned the problems became harder to ignore---he's not a leader, he doesn't really play defense or rebound very well, and he has an ego and self-image that seem to be more about 'shots taken' than 'wins' He was not a net positive his last year or two in NY, and wasn't last year in OKC either.

In terms of HOF, isn't his best comp someone like Dominique? Are there really people arguing he's not a HOFer?
 

benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
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Question, probably stupid, but why are some posters consistently writing “BIG”? Is there an acronym I’m not aware of? Autocorrect? Do people think we don’t understand that a ‘big’ is a tall guy? Like, capitalizing the three letters drives the point home?
Asking for a friend...
How would you they like it displayed?
Big, big, 4/5, 5, or center?

I'll happily go back and edit it for your pedantic friend.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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How would you they like it displayed?
Big, big, 4/5, 5, or center?

I'll happily go back and edit it for your pedantic friend.
Was just curious why someone would take the time to capitalize it; half busting balls and half genuinely wondering if I was missing some kind of scout speak, like it was a thing Jay Bilas came up with or you were trying to coin something (and in all earnest, I didn’t realize it was just you until pointed out, I thought I saw it more often, which led to the genuine question; I asked a similar question on main board when someone kept using ‘DDski’, as it we’d otherwise think he was talking about Duquette, got my answer, and whatever, I don’t even see it anymore; or some posters that have felt the need to change the font of their post; to each their own).

Seriously man, if you wanna slide your pinky over to the shift button for three keystrokes, you knock yourself out, my friend is cool with it; but yeah I think we’d all understand what you mean by any of those labels you just cited. Just wondering what I was missing. Apparently nothing.
 

chilidawg

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OK, add him to the growing cheap veteran BIG list:
Baynes
O'Quinn
Len
A Williams
Mejri
Noel
Montrez Harrell
Nogueirga
Bertans
Okafor
Monroe
Tolliver
Zeller
Howard
McGee
West
Zaza
Ed Davis
Speights
Booker

pricier BIGs: Cousins, Capella, Jordan, Randle, Favors
Noguiera is an interesting one, had a nice year off the bench the year before last, then got stuck behind Poeltl last year. Long and athletic.
 

Kliq

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I feel like someone's going to get a bargain on Alex Len, given the tight market this summer and the current fad for small, switchable centers (plus Len's bonus demerits for being foreign). In many an offseason, a 25 year-old 7'-1", 260 lb. starting center who just put up 15.1 pts on .612 true shooting / 13.4 reb per 36 would be command near-max money. This summer I'll be mildly surprised if he finds a full MLE.

I like Baynes a lot, but if I were you guys I'd take Len over Baynes, given the choice (and Kyle O'Quinn over both).
I like buying low on any of the Suns lottery picks who haven’t worked out. I think it’s fairly clear that franchise has not done a great job developing young talent and I think the right team could scoop up a player like Len and get a lot more out of him.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Was he really ever a sure fire HOFer? I know he had some good years and the basketball HOF has an open door policy but I don’t recall him being dominant enough to justify HOF consideration.

Edit: looks like Sam Ray Not answered the question pretty well.
Yes he was a surefire one in Denver provided his career wasn't shortened by injury and even after suffering on some god-awful Knicks teams he's still a surefire HOFer, there is zero question about this imo.

Melo is going to the HOF. 6x all NBA (no first team) and 10x all star.


Edit: also 3 Olympic gold medals
Don't forget leading Syracuse to a National Championship as a Freshman while winning the tournaments Most Outstanding Player Award.
 

benhogan

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Was just curious why someone would take the time to capitalize it; half busting balls and half genuinely wondering if I was missing some kind of scout speak, like it was a thing Jay Bilas came up with or you were trying to coin something (and in all earnest, I didn’t realize it was just you until pointed out, I thought I saw it more often, which led to the genuine question; I asked a similar question on main board when someone kept using ‘DDski’, as it we’d otherwise think he was talking about Duquette, got my answer, and whatever, I don’t even see it anymore; or some posters that have felt the need to change the font of their post; to each their own).

Seriously man, if you wanna slide your pinky over to the shift button for three keystrokes, you knock yourself out, my friend is cool with it; but yeah I think we’d all understand what you mean by any of those labels you just cited. Just wondering what I was missing. Apparently nothing.
BIG has been trademarked. Riley eat your heart out.

Please send all proceeds to Mrs. Hogan, lord knows I do.
 

Cesar Crespo

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He'd may even be really good on Phoenix. He'd get on their asses for not playing defense at the very least.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He'd may even be really good on Phoenix. He'd get on their asses for not playing defense at the very least.
The problem is that the Suns young players are pretty awful. Adding Smart to Ayton would be a start to changing that culture though.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The problem is that the Suns young players are pretty awful. Adding Smart to Ayton would be a start to changing that culture though.
It would be a lot better than the Kings signings to change their culture, which was basically sign a bunch of old guys and call them a vet presence. I think one thing people can all agree on when it comes to Marcus Smart is he's definitely a presence, and he's been in the league long enough to be considered a veteran. I'm sure if he's on the team this year, he'll be the first guy in Robert Williams ear.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It would be a lot better than the Kings signings to change their culture, which was basically sign a bunch of old guys and call them a vet presence. I think one thing people can all agree on when it comes to Marcus Smart is he's definitely a presence, and he's been in the league long enough to be considered a veteran. I'm sure if he's on the team this year, he'll be the first guy in Robert Williams ear.
Smart has qualities that we and others really like. I've been preparing to move forward without him because I have always expected one of these teams in need of a culture change with cash to spend to price him out of Ainge's range.....which I've always felt was a lot lower than others. We'll find out soon enough. I love this time of year!
 

nighthob

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Glad to see Smart's agent is out working the phones!
I think everyone at this point knows that Happy Walters is desperate for a win in the free agency game. He's probably going to be waiting a little while, though. At least De'Aaron Fox still has potential.
 

cheech13

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But was I correct in assuming if they did cut him, they would have saved 9 mil against the cap?
Bogdan's guaranteed portion was $1.5MM. Al is guaranteed for $4MM and Collison for $2MM. There is also Thaddeus Young's player option, which he may or not pick up. Indiana has a very fluid cap situation. It's probably more beneficial to them to operate over the cap, but they could open up $20MM or more if there was someone they wanted to sign.
 

nighthob

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Bogdan's guaranteed portion was $1.5MM. Al is guaranteed for $4MM and Collison for $2MM. There is also Thaddeus Young's player option, which he may or not pick up. Indiana has a very fluid cap situation. It's probably more beneficial to them to operate over the cap, but they could open up $20MM or more if there was someone they wanted to sign.
I figured they'd take a swing at helping out the Nets by trying to talk Brooklyn into a Crabbe/LaVert for a couple of #2s type deal. With Oladipo the centerpiece of their offense they could make use of Crabbe's shooting. And LaVert is definitely a pretty decent jack-of-all-trades player.
 

Swedgin

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I think everyone at this point knows that Happy Walters is desperate for a win in the free agency game. He's probably going to be waiting a little while, though. At least De'Aaron Fox still has potential.
Does Shump go on Lebron's ledger?
 

mcpickl

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Jul 23, 2007
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I think everyone at this point knows that Happy Walters is desperate for a win in the free agency game. He's probably going to be waiting a little while, though. At least De'Aaron Fox still has potential.
He Got Brad Wanamaker signed!
 

ifmanis5

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Indiana making that move today opens up at least one playoff team now who can offer Tyreke more than the MLE. This hurts our chances by a lot.
For sure. I do think Tyreke would have been great for last year's team. If everyone is healthy next year, he's more of a luxury than a need. Those huge offensive droughts, especially after Kyrie got hurt, should be less of an issue.
 

Khabibul35

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I don't get it, why would a team decline a cheap 1.6M option only to sign a max deal. Couldn't they have just extended him for 4 years at max to give him the security of a long term contract?

This doesn't make sense to me!
 
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The Big Red Kahuna

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I don't get it, why would a team decline a cheap 1.6M option only to sign a max deal. Couldn't they have just extended him for 4 years at max to give him the security of a long term contract?

This doesn't make sense to me!
You realize there are two sides to a negotiation, right?
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't get it, why would a team decline a cheap 1.6M option only to sign a max deal. Couldn't they have just extended him for 4 years at max to give him the security of a long term contract?

This doesn't make sense to me!
Jokic was a second-round pick so his situation is different than most rookies who typically reach RFA after 4 seasons as first-round picks and UFA after year 5. Because Jokic is a second-round pick, the Nuggets had the option to reject the club option for 2018-19 this summer, which they took. Jokic then became a restricted free agent on July 1. The Nuggets would then maintain the right to match any offer sheet he signs, if he doesn’t first sign a max contract with the Nuggets as expected. This way it ensures the Nuggets that they do not lose Jokic.