2018 NBA offseason thread

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
The Hawks fan reactions I've seen are pretty negative about the Lin signing, FWIW - that's a lot of money and a lot of cap spaced used up for 2018/19 on a player whose best asset might be his ability to mentor to Trae Young. But I have no idea at this point.
Where did you see these reactions? This would seem to be comedy gold. The team has a full guaranteed roster and wasn't even at the salary floor. The money was being used anyway to reach the floor regardless of whether they signed a player or not and they did so on an expiring contract. This also allows them to move Schroeder (Pelican rumors since Rondo left). I literally can't think of a single downside to the Lin deal with several positives......veteran to split time with Young in his rookie year, potential trade bait at deadline for 2nd rounder, Schroeder thing, etc.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,112
Santa Monica
Jokic is a massively plus offensive talent, but that "only weakness" is the one that gets you played off the floor against an elite team with spacing and top-end iso players. Honestly I hope I'm wrong, since I enjoy watching him (and the Nuggets in general) play, but I'm not super optimistic.

This is something that can only be found out in the playoffs. In the regular season, teams just don't gameplan specifically enough, or have the talent to exploit isolated flaws.
As mentioned above its bad when Jokic is paired with Plumlee and asked to defend quicker wings. Jokic should be their 5 and paired with three wings and a PG. When he is off the floor they should go small at the 5 with Millsap and Lyles.
Mason Plumlee should play no more than 10mins/game, to give Jokic rest and be a body against another team's big. Plumlee can't shoot, adds no space, and clogs the lane on offense. On defense, he doesn't have the foot speed to rotate on to wings. He's a dinosaur in today's modern game. I would have taken a half dozen 'cheap' centers that were free agents this offseason over Mason. Terrible trade, then dreadful signing.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,501
What? Jokic is the best modern center. His passing, shooting, and rebounding make him a mismatch for any opposing center.

His only weakness is ISO defense.
It's not just ISO defense. I haven't seen much of him but he also seems to have problems in PnR defense. So it's kind of like defense in general in today's NBA game.

Nothing I can say that hasn't been said better on the internet (e.g., here) and certainly DEN had little choice in the matter so I will be very interested in seeing how this experiment works out.
 
Where did you see these reactions? This would seem to be comedy gold. The team has a full guaranteed roster and wasn't even at the salary floor. The money was being used anyway to reach the floor regardless of whether they signed a player or not and they did so on an expiring contract. This also allows them to move Schroeder (Pelican rumors since Rondo left). I literally can't think of a single downside to the Lin deal with several positives......veteran to split time with Young in his rookie year, potential trade bait at deadline for 2nd rounder, Schroeder thing, etc.
Check out this article on Peachtree Hoops (SB Nation site), and also the comments underneath it:

https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2018/7/13/17568606/break-down-atlanta-hawks-trade-acquisition-jeremy-lin-brooklyn-nets-denver-nuggets-salary-cap-nba
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I could only take a few of the comments after reading that article. The author essentially blames the Hawks because Karnisovas, the Nuggets new GM came up the ranks with Marks when he was in SA and partnered on a deal? Then he talks about "valuable" cap space wasted (huh?) and how it could have been spent on Jameer Nelson? Holy schmoly!

He did point out another benefit however that I failed to account for and that is Lin's connection to the Asian market which will help get a few more people through the turnstiles which is always an issue in Atlanta but especially now.

So no, I'm not buying what this author is selling.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
If IT4 can stay on the court during the playoffs, Jokic can too.
The Celtics were contorting the entire defense to hide him, and by game 7 they were trying to match him up against the Wizards' bench players' minutes. He may have still been a very slight positive when he was having huge scoring outbursts, but going back to Jokic, you don't pay max contracts for very slight positives.

Anyway, I'll table this discussion for now. The Nuggets, as noted, don't have a lot of choices other than seeing if they can make Jokic work in the playoffs, and I'll be watching closely once they get there, as I think they will. Just want to plant my stake in the ground for when those games start.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
This is a nice deal, and makes the LaVine signing look even worse. Woj also reporting that the 2nd year is a team option.
What does Jabari having little leverage as a RFA in this market have to do with the LaVine contract? The Bulls had plenty of space for both.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
What does Jabari having little leverage as a RFA in this market have to do with the LaVine contract? The Bulls had plenty of space for both.
There are the usual issues with opportunity cost of cap space, especially over multiple years with LaVine. Jabari is also many fewer tweaks away from being a good player than is LaVine: Jabari needs to try on defense and then he's quite useful, while LaVine needs to make a huge leap in everything that's not shooting 3s or winning dunk contests.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,192
If Chicago had more pieces in place I'd say that LaVine and Jabari are a little duplicative as offense-only upside scoring gambles...an expensive redundancy at $20 mil per. But given where they are, taking a shot on both and seeing how they develop fits their roster and timeline pretty well, imo.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
If Chicago had more pieces in place I'd say that LaVine and Jabari are a little duplicative as offense-only upside scoring gambles...an expensive redundancy at $20 mil per. But given where they are, taking a shot on both and seeing how they develop fits their roster and timeline pretty well, imo.
I'd agree with this if it weren't for the years on LaVine's deal. A lot can change for a franchise in 2-3 years, and make that cap flexibility suddenly relevant.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,192
Yeah, I'm not defending the LaVine deal---I think it was a bad offer sheet and a bad decision to match. I just don't think the Parker signing really changes anything (or really amplifies the bad) of the Lavine decision.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
There are the usual issues with opportunity cost of cap space, especially over multiple years with LaVine. Jabari is also many fewer tweaks away from being a good player than is LaVine: Jabari needs to try on defense and then he's quite useful, while LaVine needs to make a huge leap in everything that's not shooting 3s or winning dunk contests.
Do you feel that a max guy will sign with Chicago during their rebuilding phase with youth? I don't, which is why I feel there was little opportunity cost to the LaVine signing with a ton of upside.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I'd agree with this if it weren't for the years on LaVine's deal. A lot can change for a franchise in 2-3 years, and make that cap flexibility suddenly relevant.
Meh, in 3 years he'll be expiring if he's a bust......but without being a destination I don't see where "a lot" changes in 2-3 years. Ideally they will trend to where the Nuggets are today. LaVine is the type of high upside guy you want when you are rebuilding.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
Do you feel that a max guy will sign with Chicago during their rebuilding phase with youth? I don't, which is why I feel there was little opportunity cost to the LaVine signing with a ton of upside.
Chicago isn't signing any big-name free agents in the next few years. The opportunity cost comes in three primary forms:
1. Taking flyers on young players (we have an example of this in the past 24 hours with Jabari)
2. Re-signing core talent that develops. If Jabari plays lights out next year, or Kris Dunn develops, or Markannen is a max player, the LaVine contract will make paying them painful, and foreclose the ability to add talent around them. Denver just had to give away a fairly decent first round pick because of the Faried and Plumlee contracts, combined with the unexpected speed that its core of Murray, Jokic, and Harris came together, and the Millsap signing.
3. Taking draft picks to help teams clear contracts. I'd probably rather have the Denver top-12 protected pick that Brooklyn got than have LaVine.

Painting it as "oh, they're not signing a big free agent, so 4/80 is fine" isn't very creative, and a big reason that young teams that suddenly develop often find themselves in trouble when the rebuilding plan actually works.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
Meh, in 3 years he'll be expiring if he's a bust......but without being a destination I don't see where "a lot" changes in 2-3 years. Ideally they will trend to where the Nuggets are today. LaVine is the type of high upside guy you want when you are rebuilding.
The Nuggets, in the past couple days, just paid a first rounder to move off Faried's expiring (at less money than LaVine). I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
The Nuggets, in the past couple days, just paid a first rounder to move off Faried's expiring (at less money than LaVine). I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here.
You spoke in the prior post about re-signing core players when you are advocating NOT matching one of the players the Bulls identify as a potential future core player. You have to have upside talent to develop before you re-sign them after they develop.

The Nuggets signed Plumlee to an awful deal as a low-upside player. This is not what the Bulls are doing.......I was referring to the growth of their young players which of course you knew. There is no Plumlee contract on the Bulls.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
You spoke in the prior post about re-signing core players when you are advocating NOT matching one of the players the Bulls identify as a potential future core player. You have to have upside talent to develop before you re-sign them after they develop.
I agree with that. I should have made it clear that my problem with LaVine is that I think his odds of realizing upside equity are really low, and thus the years are a problem. If that wasn't clear, I apologize.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I agree with that. I should have made it clear that my problem with LaVine is that I think his odds of realizing upside equity are really low, and thus the years are a problem. If that wasn't clear, I apologize.
They gambled that he woudn't get an offer like he did. In their situation I never expected the Bulls to let him walk for one extra year.
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
4,700
Saint Paul, MN
I still don't understand why ATL used up some of their cap space for Lin whihc in turn allowed BRK to get a first round pick for using their space in the DEN deal. I would much rather have that protected 1st round pick then a year of Jeremy Lin.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,622
I’m not a huge Parker fan but team option on the second year changes things tremendously. Pretty good deal for them if he puts it together, guys his age and pedigree aren’t often available for a 1 year flier.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,546
Feel like they have to be eating money rather than an offer sheet.

Nwaba only clears 1.7M, that shouldn't be the difference between an offer sheet being made.

I think Carmelo for Cristiano Felicio now would fit under the cap where it wouldn't with Nwaba.

OKC could waive and stretch Felicio for 7 years instead of Carmelo at 3 years.
Swing and a miss!

Classy move by Milwaukee rescinding his qualifying offer.

Good gamble for the Bulls I think.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I still don't understand why ATL used up some of their cap space for Lin whihc in turn allowed BRK to get a first round pick for using their space in the DEN deal. I would much rather have that protected 1st round pick then a year of Jeremy Lin.
How would they not allow it? Two GM's who has familiarity with each other worked on a deal that accomplished each sides objective.
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
4,700
Saint Paul, MN
How would they not allow it? Two GM's who has familiarity with each other worked on a deal that accomplished each sides objective.
Huh? I wasn't questioning the legitimacy of the deal, just the why the hell ATL would do it.

Their team is going to bad next year. That is fine. Lin will make them slightly less bad, which is the opposite of what they want. Just see no reason to bring Lin on especially when they could have used that cap space to pick up a 1st round pick instead.
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
34,441
Haiku
The Hawks may be thinking of the Hinkie Defenestration -- if you're going to tank, at least tank with an experienced point guard around so that your young talent can develop by running a professional offense and you don't embarrass the league by calling attention to ineptitude. Jeremy Lin is the Ish Smith of Atlanta.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Huh? I wasn't questioning the legitimacy of the deal, just the why the hell ATL would do it.

Their team is going to bad next year. That is fine. Lin will make them slightly less bad, which is the opposite of what they want. Just see no reason to bring Lin on especially when they could have used that cap space to pick up a 1st round pick instead.
My point was to question "how" they could have picked up that first round pick. Marks and Karnisovas have a long prior relationship and worked on the deal......after it is agreed upon the latter isn't going to say, "Ok, now that we have a deal I'm gonna shop it to Atlanta to see if I can do better." That isn't how business is done between those who have a relationship.

The can still tank with Lin and sell some tickets. It is still first and foremost a billion dollar business here.
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
4,700
Saint Paul, MN
Everyone knew DEN had to unload Faried and/or Arthur. I am sure there were talks with the few teams that had sufficient cap space to absorb them, including ATL. I just think the marginal increase in ticket sales is not worth the missed opportunity at picking up a first round pick.

DEN came out far worse than ATL though. That Plumlee deal just keeps killing them. Without signing him to that awful deal they don't have to give away a first round pick to shed salary.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
The Hawks may be thinking of the Hinkie Defenestration -- if you're going to tank, at least tank with an experienced point guard around so that your young talent can develop by running a professional offense and you don't embarrass the league by calling attention to ineptitude. Jeremy Lin is the Ish Smith of Atlanta.
I would call this 4-D chess, but I suppose the correct categorization is just "regular chess."

I agree this is likely what the Hawks are thinking, and the fact that they're being lightly lambasted for the move suggests that the plan is working. I expect other tanking teams to copy (the Lakers executed this smokescreen quite well too, intentionally or not).
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Everyone knew DEN had to unload Faried and/or Arthur. I am sure there were talks with the few teams that had sufficient cap space to absorb them, including ATL. I just think the marginal increase in ticket sales is not worth the missed opportunity at picking up a first round pick.

DEN came out far worse than ATL though. That Plumlee deal just keeps killing them. Without signing him to that awful deal they don't have to give away a first round pick to shed salary.
Maybe. Maybe not. We don't have any evidence to suggest that Denver engaged at all with Atlanta knowing that his buddy had the necessary tools to meet his objective.

The Plumlee contract can't be used to judge Denvers offseason. They saved $91m in salary and tax for the cost of a mid-first rounder. That's a pretty good return.
 
Last edited:

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
4,700
Saint Paul, MN
But BRK didn't have the necessary tools to make the move until they had moved Lin. I don't know, seems to me that ATL could have just signed some vet minimum PG rather than pay Lin 13 million to mentor Trae Young. This also further complicates their Schroeder situation.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,112
Santa Monica
Offer sheets have to be to at least three years, Chicago couldn’t have signed Parker to a 1 and 1 without the Bucks rescinding the QO.
Nice guy move by the Bucks? OR did they really not want Parker to return?

I can't imagine helping out Parker and the Bulls is a priority for Milwaukee's front office. AND it's not really a PR stunt to endear them to the fanbase and sell tickets.
In fact, if I was a Bucks fan I'd be scratching my head. We just gave away our #2 pick a year early to a team that we play 4x/year. AND the Bulls now own a team option on him next season? Most Bucks fans probably feel they are only a player or two away from going to the Finals in a weakened Eastern Conf.

moral of the story: Marcus Smart should fire Happy Walters and hire Bartelstein as his agent
 
Last edited:

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Nice guy move by the Bucks? OR did they really not want Parker to return?

I can't imagine helping out Parker and the Bulls is a priority for Milwaukee's front office. AND it's not really a PR stunt to endear them to the fanbase and sell tickets.
In fact, if I was a Bucks fan I'd be scratching my head. We just gave away our #2 pick a year early to a team that we play 4x/year. AND the Bulls now own a team option on him next season? Most Bucks fans probably feel they are only a player or two away from going to the Finals in a weakened Eastern Conf.

moral of the story: Marcus Smart should fire Happy Walters and hire Bartelstein as his agent
Parker has had 2 major injuries so maybe they know something we don't. I also think we are seeing potential and offense is what is selling this off season.

Do players like Marcus Smart ever get paid? There aren't many/any comparable players.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,546
Because the contract he and the Bulls agreed to wouldn't be legal if the Bucks kept their qualifying offer in place. Rather than force Jabari and the Bulls to restructure, they knew they wouldn't match anyway, they just withdrew the QO.

Nice guy move by the Bucks? OR did they really not want Parker to return?
Why can't it be both?
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,546
I don't think they wanted him back, even on the QO
Then why would they wait right until another team showed interest in signing him to pull the qualifying offer if they were worried he might actually sign it?

Wouldn't they have pulled it much earlier if that was an issue?

I think they would have been just fine paying Jabari 4.3M for one year.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,112
Santa Monica
Then why would they wait right until another team showed interest in signing him to pull the qualifying offer if they were worried he might actually sign it?

Wouldn't they have pulled it much earlier if that was an issue?

I think they would have been just fine paying Jabari 4.3M for one year.
OK, then it must have been a Nice Guy move by the Bucks. If I'm a Bucks fan I'm a little pissed off
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Then why would they wait right until another team showed interest in signing him to pull the qualifying offer if they were worried he might actually sign it?

Wouldn't they have pulled it much earlier if that was an issue?

I think they would have been just fine paying Jabari 4.3M for one year.
If I had to guess......and this is really the only thing that makes sense to me, is that Bartelstein has such strong GM relationships that he knows the Bucks aren't matching any reasonable offer. He can then go to them and say he's prepared to sign a 3/$35m (or 3/$40m whatever) offer that both sides know the Bucks won't match but would prefer the 2/$40m with team option for second year and it was done as a courtesy/favor to the agent.
 

Big John

New Member
Dec 9, 2016
2,086
I thought it was a favor to the Bulls, so that they could sign him to what amounts to a one-year deal. But either way, the Bucks were clearly not interested in retaining Parker, and frankly I'd rather have David Nwaba so I'm not surprised.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I thought it was a favor to the Bulls, so that they could sign him to what amounts to a one-year deal. But either way, the Bucks were clearly not interested in retaining Parker, and frankly I'd rather have David Nwaba so I'm not surprised.
Right......and all 3 parties knew this. Nobody loses in this arrangement.
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
19,470
Somewhere
Do players like Marcus Smart ever get paid? There aren't many/any comparable players.
Nate McMillan is the closest comp that I can come up with; he got paid slightly less than NBA average, except for his last season.

Equivalent today would be ~$6M/year.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,112
Santa Monica
Google Waters' client list sometime. It tugs at the heartstrings.
wonder how Shumpert feels about paying for Happy's country club bills?

Is David Nwaba insurance if Smart signs elsewhere?
I liked what I saw from the Cal-Poly grad, he could keep Jaylan company.