2018 Draft: Patriots and QBs

Super Nomario

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Driving around the other day, I heard that Lamar was not overly victimized by drops relative to the other QBs who are projected as top tier. Is that right?
I have seen the opposite:
Completion % of potential 1st round QBs in 2018 NFL Draft adjusted based on drop data from @PFF @PFF_Neil
- Lamar Jackson's comp % was hurt the most by drops
- Josh Allen's adjusted completion percentage is lower than 4 of 5 others standard comp %, only .5% better than Jackson
 

Shelterdog

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I have seen the opposite:
Completion % of potential 1st round QBs in 2018 NFL Draft adjusted based on drop data from @PFF @PFF_Neil
- Lamar Jackson's comp % was hurt the most by drops
- Josh Allen's adjusted completion percentage is lower than 4 of 5 others standard comp %, only .5% better than Jackson
I've heard that Allen's completion percentage suffers because his receivers weren't able to get reasonable amounts of seperationg thus necessitating a high percentage of difficult throws. No idea if this is accurate.
 

slamminsammya

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Best would be to see a breakdown by distance as well, since QB percentage is especially prone to Simpson's paradox. Like how Brady has better numbers than Manning both in domes and on grass, but since he played way more games on grass where all QB's numbers tend to be lower, his overall rating was lower than Manning's despite being (obviously hehe) the better QB.

In this case the situation is that longer throws are lower percentage, so if you throw more accurately than someone else but you also throw far fewer short passes your percentage will be lower. This could be meaningful or not - some of it is decision making and some of it is scheme and playcalling.
 

SMU_Sox

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A lot has changed for me in where I go to digest and consume pre-draft content. If you guys want to dig here I want to humbly suggest a few sites and podcasts that have been amazing for scouting players and the draft.

1) Inside the Pylon. Not because the SoSH guys started it. They don't just analyze players they teach you so much about the game. Plus Masco's QB analysis is spectacular. Draft QB's are still a favorite to deep dive into and ITP gives you everything there. What you don't learn from reading ITP pieces you will learn through their glossary. I spent probably 40-50 hours just reading and re-reading their glossary. If you never played football learning concepts from scratch is hard to do. Before I had a good idea about whether or not defenders were in man or zone. Now when I watch tape I can identify the defensive schemes run and know their holes/weaknesses.It still isn't instant for me but this is a long process.

2) LockedonPatriots Podcast. Masco hosts this. What I love about the draft process is that Masco will break down the guys on the roster now and then bring on an expert to talk about draft fits at each position with the Patriots.

3) LockedonNFL Draft Podcast. Jon Ledyard (he also is a must-read on NDT Scouting) co-hosts this podcast with Trevor Sikkema. Very thorough. Last year I felt like I knew or heard of most of the players from rounds 1-6 and a good amount from 7-UDFA. They give you their takes from tape and how they evaluate the different positional groups and also get into what the buzz is on guys so you'll have a complete look at each guy.

4) NDT Scouting website/Draft Guys Podcast. Kyle Crabbs and Joe Marino do the podcast. The website has a lot of film study and articles on positional groups and team focuses. Like this article on the Pats using the draft to help replace Butler. These articles are also available on Fanrag sports.

If you just want to look at the QBs there are two places on ITP: specific traits and QBs Masco has his series on ITP on interceptions by QB which helps in the analysis and a more complete look through Intentional Scouting with Nate Geary.

So... Any recommendations? Always up for a new podcast or site to check out for the draft.
 

bsj

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The more I hear about Lauletta and the Patriots being linked, the more I think Woodside. Feels like classic misdirection. Look at yesterday. Very similar for most of the day, yet one will be ~3rd rounder and the other 4th or later.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Lamar had no one around him. It was literally him as the entire offense. Speed kills and he’s got a lot of it. Not only that but he’s got a solid throwing motion too. Love him as the Pats first rounder.

This BS about him trying out for WR is insane. Lamar is a QB.
 

EL Jeffe

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Josh McDaniels isn’t there so it makes sense that they wouldn’t interview QBs without him.
 

SMU_Sox

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I’ve done work on six quarterbacks and I don’t think I’m going to work anymore on this position pre-draft for time reasons.

I’m no Masco or ITP expert but my personal order of the QBs is:

Rosen (top 5)
Mayfield (top 10)
Jackson (late first early second)
Lauletta (2nd)
Darnold (2nd)
Allen (3rd/4th).

Darnold is a guy who I admittedly am a lot lower on than the consensus. I have questions about his mechanics (both lower and upper) and decision making. Allen and Darnold to me are the guys with huge ceilings but, especially Allen, I wonder if they will be able to put it all consistently together.

Jackson needs more time to develop and that’s why I love him as a Pat because he will have that time. Lauletta is another guy who tested well and needs some time to acclimate to the NFL and better competition but all the mental elements of his game like decision making, processing, anticipation are good. His arm is fine too.

Who are some day 3 guys that stood out to you all?
 

dcmissle

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I fear Jackson won’t be around near the bottom of round 1. I’m sensing an orchestrated effort to talk him down.

Would not be surprised if Polian was doing some team a solid. The opinion may be defensible on a general level, but it was obvious he had put zero effort into it. He couldn’t even get Jackson’s height right, and the relevant sequence in the interview makes it clear Polian did not merely mis-speak.
 

bsj

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I’ve done work on six quarterbacks and I don’t think I’m going to work anymore on this position pre-draft for time reasons.

I’m no Masco or ITP expert but my personal order of the QBs is:

Rosen (top 5)
Mayfield (top 10)
Jackson (late first early second)
Lauletta (2nd)
Darnold (2nd)
Allen (3rd/4th).

Darnold is a guy who I admittedly am a lot lower on than the consensus. I have questions about his mechanics (both lower and upper) and decision making. Allen and Darnold to me are the guys with huge ceilings but, especially Allen, I wonder if they will be able to put it all consistently together.

Jackson needs more time to develop and that’s why I love him as a Pat because he will have that time. Lauletta is another guy who tested well and needs some time to acclimate to the NFL and better competition but all the mental elements of his game like decision making, processing, anticipation are good. His arm is fine too.

Who are some day 3 guys that stood out to you all?
Woodside. Very similar to Lauletta minus the hype train
 

Harry Hooper

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Since NFL draftees are limited to 4-year contracts, I just don't see the Pats rushing to draft a QB this year. Having a replacement QB ready to go when Brady is done is a good thing, but not having to pay the new starter north of $25 million/year for a few seasons is even better.
 

slamminsammya

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Since NFL draftees are limited to 4-year contracts, I just don't see the Pats rushing to draft a QB this year. Having a replacement QB ready to go when Brady is done is a good thing, but not having to pay the new starter north of $25 million/year for a few seasons is even better.
This shouldnt be a consideration. The position is so important if you find someone good and have to pay market value to do so its worth it.
 

tims4wins

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If anything the Pats should draft a QB both this year and next year. Or this year and 2020. Or 2019 and 2020. I don’t buy that they HAVE to draft a QB this year, but I do think they would be wise to select multiple over the next few drafts to increase their odds of hitting on one.
 

Harry Hooper

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Price on BSJ has a feature about Brady's influence on prospect QBs. It includes a roundup of predictions for the Pats first-round pick:

CBS Sports: LB Harold Landry, Boston College
Pete Schraeger, NFL Network: RB Sony Michel, Georgia
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Media: OT Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame
Bucky Brooks, NFL Media: CB Isaiah Oliver, Colorado
Charley Casserly, NFL Media: DT Harrison Phillips, Stanford
Walter Football: OT Kolton Miller, UCLA
Dan Kadar, SB Nation: CB Carlton Davis, Auburn
SI.com: LB Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State
Danny Kelly, The Ringer: LB Leighton Vader Esch, Boise State
No QBs in sight. Schraeger going his own way with the RB prediction. That truly would be a shocker selection by BB.
 

nighthob

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No QBs in sight. Schraeger going his own way with the RB prediction. That truly would be a shocker selection by BB.
I thought the Landry selection was interesting as well. I don't watch a lot of BC, but when I did last year I didn't recall him being a particularly big factor.
 

kenneycb

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He was hurt for most of the year last year and missed the last five games. He was hobbled by an ankle injury IIRC early in the year that limited his production and then got shut down with five games left.
 

BigSoxFan

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He was hurt for most of the year last year and missed the last five games. He was hobbled by an ankle injury IIRC early in the year that limited his production and then got shut down with five games left.
Yeah and his JR year tape was really impressive. He’s also killing it at the combine and will be long gone before #31.
 

slamminsammya

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Price on BSJ has a feature about Brady's influence on prospect QBs. It includes a roundup of predictions for the Pats first-round pick:



No QBs in sight. Schraeger going his own way with the RB prediction. That truly would be a shocker selection by BB.
Why? Lewis is probably gone and Burkhead and Gillislee are both older as RB's go. He drafted Maroney once.
 

SMU_Sox

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Who wants contextualized QB stats for the draft? Ben Solak did a fantastic piece (click there to download it) up on NDT scouting (link to the intro and explanation of the guide with samples).

Here is the introduction to the piece

The CQ endeavors to provide hard data that responds to the typical quarterbacking narratives we hear during the Draft cycle. There are tons of surprises inside: for example, that Louisville QB Lamar Jackson is actually one of the most precise deep throwers in the class; that UCLA QB Josh Rosen actually struggles to throw the ball behind the line of scrimmage; that Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield turns red zone dropbacks into touchdowns almost 10% more often than the next closest QB.
The guide gives you all the graphics with data you'd want like heat maps, comparative charts and tables, top quartile traits, etc. Caveat: Ben did not scout every game so for some of these guys it is a 3 game sample which can be dangerous. Even with that caveat this is a great piece for more information helping to breakdown the QBs available in the draft this year.
 

dbn

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If anything the Pats should draft a QB both this year and next year. Or this year and 2020. Or 2019 and 2020. I don’t buy that they HAVE to draft a QB this year, but I do think they would be wise to select multiple over the next few drafts to increase their odds of hitting on one.
I think this post has it. If there is a guy available that they like at a certain pick, take him. If not, up-prioritize it next year.
 

axx

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Keep in mind that we are 3 seasons away from what's going to be a very ugly strike/lockout that I fully expect games if not whole seasons lost. Any early round QB who might normally be on the fence is going to come out next year to get 2 big paychecks instead of 1, and perhaps QB's would get devalued in the 2020 draft since they could not end up playing at all before the lockout.
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

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Keep in mind that we are 3 seasons away from what's going to be a very ugly strike/lockout that I fully expect games if not whole seasons lost. Any early round QB who might normally be on the fence is going to come out next year to get 2 big paychecks instead of 1, and perhaps QB's would get devalued in the 2020 draft since they could not end up playing at all before the lockout.
This is insane. The NFLPA has shown time and time again that they are not inclined or able to survive a long lockout. A strike is even more far fetched.
The NFLPA will do some saber rattling but will then roll over and get steamrolled again in the next contract. There is no actual reason let alone evidence to suggest anything else is going to happen.
 

tims4wins

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I could see it if he slips past 10 or so where the cost wouldn’t be prohibitive. No chance the Pats trade into the top 5 for him IMO
 

Marbleheader

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It is interesting that the Pats 2 firsts line up pretty well with SF at #9. As does the Cooks pick, Garropolo pick and their 3rd.
 
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RedOctober3829

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They need too many things to warrant trading up for a QB. I couldn’t justify packaging multiple picks to get a player who’s going to sit out like Jimmy did. I get Brady’s time is almost up, but they have many needs to fill before addressing QB.
 

fieldslikebuckner

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I'm really hoping the late first round, early second round picks are traded back to pick up more draft capital in rounds 2-4. With all the team needs that have been highlighted, including future starting QB, the extra picks are more valuable, I think.

The team has a history of drafting multiple players at the same position in the same year to give itself a better chance of hitting on one. (Vereen/Ridley comes immediately to mind) The extra picks will allow them to employ that strategy, if they choose.
 

BaseballJones

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Such mixed emotions about moving up to trade for a QB. I know there are quite a few exciting QB talents, and the fact of the matter is that Brady is on the last couple of holes in the final round of his Masters. If the Patriots are going to succeed in a post-Brady world, they're going to need a quality QB. And if they land the right one, that alone is worth basically an entire draft.

So if they go big this year, go all-in on Brady's replacement, and it's the right guy (nobody will be another Brady, but by the "right guy" I mean an upper-tier QB capable of winning a Super Bowl or two), then sign me up. It's just that it's hard to nail this and the Patriots have enough needs elsewhere. Ideally, someone they really like (i.e., the "right guy") slips to the second round and they can use a second rounder to snag him.
 

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T&A
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If they see a chance to get a guy that they think could be a starting QB then they should absolutely go get him and not think twice about it. Yes they have a lot of needs but none are more important than filing the hole for the next QB. You don’t let what you think is a franchise QB pass you by because you need a safety after this year or anything like that.

There seems to be a lot of misplaced optimism regarding their first four picks. If they make all four picks then they’ll add some young talented guys to the roster but the odds of all four being starters or even contributors is very low. It would not be a shocking or even unexpected outcome if those 4 picks yield only one useful player.

Trading up for a QB is still a gamble but you don’t pass on someone who you think could be next guy at the most important position to grab four wildcards at other less important positions. No matter how many needs or holes you have.
 

Super Nomario

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If they see a chance to get a guy that they think could be a starting QB then they should absolutely go get him and not think twice about it. Yes they have a lot of needs but none are more important than filing the hole for the next QB. You don’t let what you think is a franchise QB pass you by because you need a safety after this year or anything like that.

There seems to be a lot of misplaced optimism regarding their first four picks. If they make all four picks then they’ll add some young talented guys to the roster but the odds of all four being starters or even contributors is very low. It would not be a shocking or even unexpected outcome if those 4 picks yield only one useful player.

Trading up for a QB is still a gamble but you don’t pass on someone who you think could be next guy at the most important position to grab four wildcards at other less important positions. No matter how many needs or holes you have.
The problem is that they've gotten very little out of the 2016 and 2017 drafts so far. If they punt 2018 to add a QB, he might be inheriting a bottom-five roster when he takes over for Brady in 2020 or whatever.
 

DJnVa

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Teams think Pats could make a run at Mayfield.
Please worry about the Pats.

Also, this quote:

The former UCLA quarterback has drawn comparisons to Jay Cutler because of his intellect and relatively low tolerance for people who don't share his football I.Q.
Cutler's intellect? His middle name should be Dunning-Kruger.

I have confidence that Bates would help turn Rosen, a quiet leader, into a star for the next decade
Guys that have low tolerance for players they think aren't as smart as they are really aren't leaders.
 

SMU_Sox

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For me, the first round picks need to be LB, DL, or OT. Second round can look to TE, WR, DB, or QB.
In full agreement. Also, to echo others, as much as I love the QBs this year and I think this is one of the best QB drafts in years because of the depth, they need to restock the roster pipeline.

My ideal mock looks something like this (and if a guy still is available he slips to the next tier)

23: Hurst/Payne/Landry and Lamar Jackson if he’s still here.
31: Alexander/Evans/LVE/LB/Carter/Hubbard/Hughes/Wynn
43: Anthony Miller/Goedert/Lauletta/Tackle (in Scar we trust)
63: Bates/Dawson
95: Nnadi/Senat/Ejiofor/ Shaquem Griffin/ Royce Freeman

With the 6ths and 7ths get someone like a slot (Berrios Trey Quinn) or a RB like Hines.
 
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In full agreement. Also, to echo others, as much as I love the QBs this year and I think this is one of the best QB drafts in years because of the depth, they need to restock the roster pipeline.

My ideal mock looks something like this (and if a guy still is available he slips to the next tier)

23: Hurst/Payne/Landry and Lamar Jackson if he’s still here.
31: Alexander/Evans/LVE/LB/Carter/Hubbard/Hughes/Wynn
43: Anthony Miller/Goedert/Lauletta/Tackle (in Scar we trust)
63: Bates/Dawson
95: Nnadi/Senat/Ejiofor/ Shaquem Griffin/ Royce Freeman

With the 6ths and 7ths get someone like a slot (Berrios Trey Quinn) or a RB like Hines.
If we draft Lamar Jackson with our first pick in this draft --- then I'll know it's the end of the road for these Patriots.

We have so many needs on this roster and LM ain't going to fill any of them.
 

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T&A
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The problem is that they've gotten very little out of the 2016 and 2017 drafts so far. If they punt 2018 to add a QB, he might be inheriting a bottom-five roster when he takes over for Brady in 2020 or whatever.
I certainly understand that view but (and I know you understand this) making those four picks in no way guarantees that they still won’t descend into a bottom 5 roster. You hope to get starters or at least contributors with those early round picks but it’s well within the list of plausible outcomes for three of those picks up be flops. All four could end up being nothing or could tear a knee up or something. I’d love for all four to become starters for 5+ years but it’s not likely to happen.

I’m not saying that they must trade up to get a QB. That move would still be a huge gamble. But if they have reasonable confidence that one of the QBs available could be an above average starter then the opportunity cost of not going to go get him is greater then the risk of the roster bottoming out. At least from my calculus but reasonable minds may differ here.
 

ehaz

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In full agreement. Also, to echo others, as much as I love the QBs this year and I think this is one of the best QB drafts in years because of the depth, they need to restock the roster pipeline.

My ideal mock looks something like this (and if a guy still is available he slips to the next tier)

23: Hurst/Payne/Landry and Lamar Jackson if he’s still here.
31: Alexander/Evans/LVE/LB/Carter/Hubbard/Hughes/Wynn
43: Anthony Miller/Goedert/Lauletta/Tackle (in Scar we trust)
63: Bates/Dawson
95: Nnadi/Senat/Ejiofor/ Shaquem Griffin/ Royce Freeman

With the 6ths and 7ths get someone like a slot (Berrios Trey Quinn) or a RB like Hines.
Landry is a little undersized for an end and hasn’t been able to consistently set the edge in college. Not sure if he’s a B.B. pick.
 

Super Nomario

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I certainly understand that view but (and I know you understand this) making those four picks in no way guarantees that they still won’t descend into a bottom 5 roster. You hope to get starters or at least contributors with those early round picks but it’s well within the list of plausible outcomes for three of those picks up be flops. All four could end up being nothing or could tear a knee up or something. I’d love for all four to become starters for 5+ years but it’s not likely to happen.
There's downside risk to every potential course of action, but it is obvious to me that your suggestion is the riskiest course. One pick at the game's lowest-percentage position versus four. There's still a possibility three of four or all four don't work out, but if you punt on adding supporting talent again you're virtually guaranteeing a bad surrounding cast for the next QB - and for Brady's twilight, which is still likely the best chance to add a championship in the next decade.

I’m not saying that they must trade up to get a QB. That move would still be a huge gamble. But if they have reasonable confidence that one of the QBs available could be an above average starter then the opportunity cost of not going to go get him is greater then the risk of the roster bottoming out. At least from my calculus but reasonable minds may differ here.
"Reasonable confidence" of an "above-average starter" is way too low a bar. You put Matt Ryan on a team that's got that kind of supporting talent and you're going 5-11/6-10. This kind of move only makes sense if you think there's a good chance you've got a Hall of Famer. There's a middle ground scenario I could probably get on board with (like trading 63 to move up from 23 to 16 or something) but this team needs young talent.
 

rodderick

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If we draft Lamar Jackson with our first pick in this draft --- then I'll know it's the end of the road for these Patriots.

We have so many needs on this roster and LM ain't going to fill any of them.
Since 2012 the Patriots have had two first round picks, one of them was a complete bust in Dominique Easley, and the other a middling starter at best in Malcolm Brown. They've done pretty well for themselves in that timeframe, so I don't think "wasting" one of their 2 first rounders on a QB would be a doomsday scenario.