2018 AFCCG: Jags v. Pats (Non-Brady Edition)
- Thread starter Red Averages
- Start date
Yep, that’s the option if they want a 4th CB for sure. That said, Jones was only on defense for 8 snaps against the Titans (and I think most of those came in garbage time in the 4th quarter before he was hurt). And as noted, he was a regular on Special Teams (66% of snaps).
I think it just depends on what the team needs more:
- a 4th CB (Bademosi)
- a 3rd/4th RB (Burkhead/Gillislee)
- more beef on the DL (Branch)
There’s probably only 1 spot for those 4 (or maybe 2 spots between those 4 & RJ Francois). Burkhead has played some special teams as well, so it could be that they think he’d be more valuable than a 4th CB against a team with Bortles at QB.
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He plays a pretty different role on special teams; Reedy is a return guy, Jones is a gunner. Presumably Bademosi replaces Jones in both his typical capacities.
But that's just it--*this* is how the argument should have been made. That a certain type of defense can give him trouble, not that he struggles in AFCCG and because of those struggles he may again.
They also didn't look particularly good against San Fran. They've had a good season, but have lost to the Titans(x2), Jets, Cardinals and 49ers. And lost to the Rams as well. They haven't done particularly well against good offenses other then Pitt the first time.. In fact looking at their schedule they've played about two above average offenses all season. Two teams have scored over 40 against them in the past four weeks. This isn't the Giants, Broncos or Ravens. I still think they'll cause some fits, but I wonder how well they'll cover White, Lewis and possibly Burkhead. Brady has become a master at getting LBs on RBs and I think that will be a major test. This is the most healthy the Pats offense has been possibly all season. Any given sunday and such, but this game to me comes down to Bortles against the NE D.. because I think they'll be doing all they can to shut down Fournette.
I was only able to watch the second half of the Steelers game in small bursts last Sunday but the eye test said that Fournette was struggling a good amount after he injured his ankle. A lot of his runs seemed to be two or three yards and down, very few of which were runs to the outside. Does that jive with other people's observations?
It did with mine, although a week off could improve the situation.
Whether he got a shot at halftime, or was just sucking it up and giving all he could, he didn't have full burst
With mine, yes. Big chunk runs before injury; none after. It’s comical that he gets 3 yards just by breathing. He’s a hoss.
It certainly jives with mine. This is his runs after he was hurt.
4
1
0
0
2
3(TD run)
2
3
1
2
1
3
5
Nothing of substance to add, but this is an excellent perspective.
The 2015 AFFCG is always a weird one, in that it was simultaneously nearly the worst game of his playoff career by passer rating (second only to the 2009 Ravens massacre), and yet also one of the first games that comes to mind when I think of Brady's toughness.
How good did the Pats look against the Dolphins? (Or the Chiefs. Or even the Bucs, whom they managed to beat.)
One game is one game.
The Jags did a pretty good job on Le’veon Bell before they went up 28-7 and lost their way trying to play not to lose. They’ve got a lot of matchup worries, but the Pats’ RBs aren’t one of them.
I think this is right. Not sure if Fournette will be 100% (he didn’t look right after leaving the Steelers’ game with a minor injury), but even if it’s Ivory or Yeldon in the backfield, BB and Patricia will stack the box and make Bortles beat them through the air — as well they should.
I think the Pats will get it done, but I don’t think it will be the walkover a lot of folks are expecting.
Those games had something in common: No Gronk. Not saying it disproves your point, but it’s an important note.
Are you talking solely in the passing game? Because run defense is largely considered the biggest weakness of the Jags defense.They were 26th in run defense DVOA; 21st in rush yards allowed; 26th in yards per carry. I expect the Pats RBs to be huge parts of the gameplan, both in the run game and the passing game.
Also:
Bell before the fumble return TD that made it 28-7: 8 carries, 46 yards; 3 targets, 2 catches, 20 yards.
Bell the rest of the game: 8 carries, 21 yards; 10 targets, 7 catches, 68 yards.
I was definitely thinking about the 7 catches by LB. About half those 46 yards early came on a single carry.
But if the Jags are slightly below average in rushing yards allowed, I’m comfortable saying that’s in large part because teams absolutely don’t want to throw against them — they aren’t the ‘85 Bears by any stretch, but they’re more than good enough to keep the Patriots’ mediocre running game in check.
The Pats will absolutely hit them with Gronk and the slot WRs. I see that as a more potent line of attack than the RBs, even if White and Burkhead are healthy.
I have seen all of the Jags games. The rushing defense weakness has been largely fixed adding Dareus but they can be gashed in the passing game by RB's. SF and SD come to mind and in the last Titans game, there was only one pass to a RB but it went for 60. Buffalo had nice success as well and was pleasantly surprised they didn't use the RB's more in the passing game.
Pats were 10th in the NFL in rushing yards, 11th in ypc (.1 away from 7th), 6th in rushing TDs, and 6th in first downs via rushing.
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Oh great, (TB12 willing) another asterisk for the Pats 
FiveThirtyEightVerified account @FiveThirtyEight 30m30 minutes ago
The Patriots’ Super Bowl path is the easiest in modern NFL history.
FiveThirtyEightVerified account @FiveThirtyEight 30m30 minutes ago
The Patriots’ Super Bowl path is the easiest in modern NFL history.
I'm not so sure it's a mediocre running game. Dion Lewis was first overall this year in DYAR and second in DVOA. Patriots were third overall in rushing DVOA, which increased as Lewis saw a heavier workload. Looks to me like that when Lewis is healthy and getting the bulk of the workload, they have a very good running game.
The article fails to mention that the Pats got the top seed by going into Pittsburgh and beating the Steelers. If they hadn't, the Pats would likely have faced Jacksonville at home then the Steelers in Pitt -- a far different scenario.
9 of the top 10 teams in rushing yards made the playoffs, so the Pats are below-average for a playoff team.
Seriously, winning teams always have good rushing numbers, because they’re often playing with a lead and looking to shorten the game. The Pats aren’t a bad rushing team, but I’m not convinced they’re a good one either. If you’re on the Jacksonville staff, you’re worried about TB12; you’d be thrilled if the Pats decide to adopt a ground-and-pound game plan.
Injury Report
Brady(right hand)--LP
Branch(knee)--LP
Burkhead(knee)--LP
Gillislee(knee)--LP
Waddle(knee)--LP
Jags
Gipson DNP Foot
Omameh DNP Knee
Church LP Shoulder
Fournette LP Ankle
Malik Jackson LP Ankle
Bortles Right Wrist FP
Posluzny Abs FP
Updated with Waddle's status.
Brady(right hand)--LP
Branch(knee)--LP
Burkhead(knee)--LP
Gillislee(knee)--LP
Waddle(knee)--LP
Jags
Gipson DNP Foot
Omameh DNP Knee
Church LP Shoulder
Fournette LP Ankle
Malik Jackson LP Ankle
Bortles Right Wrist FP
Posluzny Abs FP
Updated with Waddle's status.
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http://boston.cbslocal.com/2018/01/17/tom-brady-patriots-afc-championship-game-injury-report/
Nothing to see here? What's the story with his hand?
Nothing to see here? What's the story with his hand?
He's been shaking his throwing hand for a few weeks now that I've seen. It's something he's been dealing with and may have just flared up a bit more after Saturday's game. From the naked eye, it hasn't affected his throwing.
Maybe more shotgun usage because the snap on it is easier on the hands than from under center? At least it’s not his right hand.
Brian Hoyer get ready.
Brian Hoyer get ready.
Also, Johnathan Jones not being on the injury report means he's going to be put on IR. There's your roster move for Reedy.
I mentioned it in Saturday's game thread, but Brady studiously avoided putting any weight on his hand when he got up from the turf after one play. He used his wrist/forearm to push up off the ground.
Can't find the link, but Jerry Thornton had something on Brady's hand like a month ago.
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With Miami I think a number of player were nursing injury and Gronk was out.. which was huge.
You can't really say 'look at how well they did against Bell' UNTIL... Bell had a great game at least catching the ball (9 for 88 yards). If the Jags aren't worried about Lewis and White well then congrats to them.. but I completely disagree that they just have that 'handled' and I think the evidence is there in their last game..let alone the last four or five.
Do you have numbers that show that Jax is very good at keeping RBs from catching the ball? (I don't know where people get those specific numbers in terms of Defenses against RBs catching and such.)
Also, isn't there any value in looking at the offenses that Jax played? Every good offense they've played has done well against them.
I don't think it will be a cake-walk either, but something has been off with Bortles the last few weeks (last week's score notwithstanding). He has not been finding his WRs (Westbrook, Lee, Cole) as he had been in previous weeks. Also, as you mentioned Fournette's ankle will be huge. He clearly couldn't cut late in the game.
He was effectively useless after the injury. If he has any issue with the ankle and can't cut then I can't see the Jags scoring more than 10-14 points in this game.
The Patriots won't lose this game because of Fournette. Not only did he not have a great season, he's the type of big back Belichick's defenses have had little trouble dealing with. I'm hoping he's healthy enough for Marrone to lean on him a lot early so the Pats can build a lead and never look back. Everyone is talking about the Patriots offense x Jax defense matchup, but I think the real mismatch is the Patriots defense x Jax offense. Not that I think the Pats defense is anything special, but I don't see how the Jaguars score more than 17 points without the help of turnovers. That's what gives me confidence.
I would certainly disagree, there were noticeable issues for about a month, especially against the Jets. I was hoping last game meant things were better.
It is his right hand.Maybe more shotgun usage because the snap on it is easier on the hands than from under center? At least it’s not his right hand.
I don't think there were major issues with the ball coming out of his hand. The issues IMO were him and the WRs(especially Cooks) not on the same page. I think something is wrong with his hand, but I haven't seen many indications that it's affecting his ball.
Let me know when those goalposts stop moving. The Patriots do not have a mediocre running game. FO has them ranked 3rd, they are 10th in yards per game, and they scored the 6th most rushing TDs. They've got one of the best rushing offenses they've had throughout this entire run. Dion Lewis is what so many have been lamenting not having the last 7 or so years: a running and receiving combo back, if you will.
And they have a backup to him in Rex Burkhead.
When Gronk and Dion (or Burkhead) are on the field together, you can play quick tempo and dictate favorable matchups in the run or passing game.
In two of Brady's four worst AFCCGs, the lack of this versatility played a huge part in their losing:
- In 2015, LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis were both on IR--they had to take on one of the best pass defenses of the last ten years with no choice but to pass (and their LT was on IR! No wonder Brady had a hard time and got destroyed by a pass rush that could just attack).
- 2012's performance, as has been noted, was without Gronk and Julian Edelman and Brady's two INTs came after the halfway point of the fourth quarter when the Ravens were up 15. A defense that lost its best coverage guy forced the O into predictability and they couldn't overcome it.
The Pats’ defense is 31st in DVOA.
Which I don’t think means jack shit, but if you agree with that, then I don’t know why you’d cite their numbers about Jacksonville’s defense as though they are meaningful.
I mean, the Chiefs were 4th in offensive DVOA. Should we marvel that the Titans managed to slow that offensive juggernaut? Or should we instead question the validity of non-transparent statistical measures?
Nobody here has argued that DVOA is the be all, end all. But there are metrics that paint the Patriots' defense in a positive light. They finished 5th in the NFL in fewest points allowed. They finished 5th in the NFL in redzone defense. (Probably important to note the Jags finished with NFL's best redzone offense. Could be the match-up that determines who wins.)
I previously pointed out conventional metrics that make the Jags' run defense look just as poor as DVOA does. When every stat that I look at tells me that the Jaguars have a bad run defense (including DVOA), I don't see any possible conclusion besides the fact that the Jaguars have a bad run defense. Do you have anything to back up the argument that the Jags have a good run defense? Or that the Patriots have a mediocre rushing offense?
Also, the fact that Kelce was injured early in that game probably had a lot to do with the Chiefs' offense performing poorly.
Hmm, maybe he hit it on a helmet of a lineman. Jeff Howe says he’s expected to play barring an unexpected setback.