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2018-19 Offseason Thread

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Devizier, Oct 29, 2018.

  1. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,909
    Or go to just the 4 (8) division winners (each division has 4 teams, go win your division). Or go to 4 8 team divisions and have the top 2 from each. Lots of options, this isn't a stumbling block.
     
  2. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,498
    So 2 teams get a bye and then 4 teams play each other in win or lose games? They aren't going to extend the season further into the year and I doubt they are going to change the regular season from 162 games.
     
  3. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    9,498
    Are they really willing to sacrifice the 1 game playoff?
     
  4. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    7,055
    I cannot figure out why baseball cannot work in Miami. It's the 7th largest metropolitan area in the nation, has a number of businesses with large offices there, and lots of people that actually like baseball. All it should require is reasonably competent ownership.

    Tampa probably could work as well, but that well is probably poisoned for good at this point.
     
  5. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    10,223
    Baseball CAN work in Miami. You hit the nail on the head...all it requires is reasonably competent ownership.

    First owner spent money, won a title, then immediately tore the team apart. Second owner did okay and built up a winner but before it could come to fruition he bolted for greener pastures. That stuck the city with owner #3 who won a title with the old owner's leavings, then mismanaged his way through a few seasons until he got a taxpayer-financed stadium, in return for which he tanked a couple years and pissed everyone off all over again. Then he eventually sold a moderately decent roster to owner #4 who promptly sold it all off.

    Honestly, I can't blame the baseball fans of south Florida for being a bit gunshy about supporting the Marlins.

    As for Tampa, I think the current ownership might have burned some bridges by demanding way too much for a new stadium. Billionaires crying poor to get taxpayers to fund a billion dollar ballpark complex are never going to come off well. But there's a fan-base for that team. In a better, more accessible ballpark, they'd do very well staying in that market.
     
  6. geoduck no quahog

    geoduck no quahog Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    10,579
    I think the Caribbean is a better option. At least Puerto Rico, if not also DR.

    Wouldn't Cuba be something? A hoot.
     
  7. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,403
    Or go to two divisions of 16 teams each. Have the division winners plus the two wild card teams make the four-team playoff.

    OR

    Four divisions. Division winners plus two wild-card teams. The top two teams (record-wise) get to move into the league semis. The other four have one-game playoffs. Then they are re-seeded and you have a four-team playoff in each league from there. Best 3 of 5 for the league semis. Best 4 of 7 for the league championship. Best 4 of 7 for the World Series.
     
  8. Danny_Darwin

    Danny_Darwin Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,196
    Maybe we can get a relocation/realignment/expansion thread? Or maybe an “actual news only” thread?
     
  9. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,371
    Portland (if you’re talking Maine as I assume) isn’t anywhere close to being big enough to support a team and the entire state is Sox fans from birth, no new team is stealing them away.

    To your earlier point, I disagree that this is the time to consider expansion. With the seeming decline in parents and athletes moving away from football, I think we see an influx of premiere athletes into baseball - who otherwise would have defaulted for the immediate money, but are now seeing the health concerns - I think we’ll start to see it shift.

    I’m also not sure I want to see a four division per league setup and otherwise you’re in an uneven stack again.
     
  10. Minneapolis Millers

    Minneapolis Millers Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,905
    Ok, just because it's been that kind of day, I have to quibble with this: "San Antonio - farther from Houston than Charlotte from Atlanta"

    SA-HOU is 190 miles (197 driving).
    CHA-ATL is 226 miles (244 driving).

    Carry on… ;)
     
  11. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,909
    Color me surprised
     
  12. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

    Messages:
    11,601
    Are the Florida teams not profitable? Did Derek Jeter pay $1 billion for the promise of a future move? It’s not at all credible that Miami can’t support a baseball team. The fan base there has been repeatedly mugged by shitty owners. Put a strong committed ownership in place and they’ll be fine, which is what I imagine Jeter’s group plans to be.

    You’re right that attendance in Tampa is awful, but their TV ratings are fine. The problem is the stadium sucks and is in a sucky place to get to, not that no one cares about the team. Baseball could use the expansion fees to built the Rays a ballpark on the Tampa waterfront and they’d instantly be rich.

    The goal of a government subsided entity like MLB shouldn’t be allowed to be profit maximization of existing ownership groups either.

    As for locations, if the league were maximizing its joint profits, one of the expansion teams should be placed in Manhattan and the other one in Los Angeles. Though that would never happen.
     
  13. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,371
    In what world do you think Jeter was the money behind that purchase? He's not even worth quarter of that. He was a figure head . But sure, let's put a third team in LA in Ny, that's even more reasonable.
     
  14. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    5,003
    It’s perfectly reasonable in terms of population; I saw an analysis once that said NY should have like 5 teams. It will never happen though, the Yanks and Mets would be way too protective of their turf. Same with the Sox and another team in New England.
     
  15. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,371
    Would like to see that if you have a link. I think it’s kind of foolish to go solely off of population. Yes the people are there but they’re already fans of the other two teams. There’s no effing way NY could have five teams, I’m not buying it.
     
  16. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    10,223
    I don't know about 5 teams, but this article suggests New York could support one or two more major sports franchises (not necessarily baseball). It also suggests there is a population to support a sports team in the Bridgeport/Stamford/Norwalk area of CT, which is more or less NYC north.

    Of course that's strictly a financial/economic measure and does not take into account fan allegiances that already exist and probably can't be changed.
     
  17. BoSox Rule

    BoSox Rule Member SoSH Member

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    1,657
    Jeter only put up $25 million for the sale.
     
  18. OCD SS

    OCD SS Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    7,208
    I’m sure anything they would work out would be better than needing to have 1 interleauge series going at all times during the regular season because of an odd number of teams in each league.

    As baseball faces an uphill struggle to recruit younger fans, it would make a ton of sense to expand into Latin America, where the fan base is already very intense. However I suspect some of MLB’s methods for extracting capital from local communities, such as with stadium subsidies and high ticket prices, would not work as well there, so we can expect to see them aim to carve up smaller & more affluent (white) markets in the USA.
     
  19. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,139
    Anyone would make money owning a MLB team (except maybe this guy I know in DC).
     
  20. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    2,908
    Speaking as a Floridian it tends to look a look bleaker in person and outside that surface theory. Doesn't help the location of both parks are basically set up to fail too (imo). At least in terms that not many in the near vicinity are likely to be shelling out the big bucks regularly to go.

    There also just isn't enough of those "lots of people who like baseball" to sustain any real roots in the long term. Brand new franchise or shiny new ballpark to go check out factor aside, Baseball is and will always remain a bottom of the barrel sporting interest down here. The best ownership possible isn't going to change that.
     
  21. Oppo

    Oppo Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,234
    Additionally, the majority are from other parts of the country and have other rooting interests. Lots of transplants from the northeast, even a generation removed still share rooting interests of their fathers before them. Might go to 1-2 games a year.
     
  22. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    7,055
    I have difficulty believing that Florida is that much different from the rest of the country that people there would not support a baseball team. I agree that neither ballpark is well situated, although Marlins park is not that far from downtown Miami and South Beach. The Marlins have had horrible ownership, and that has to be taken into account when judging fan interest. Even the Red Sox would have trouble drawing if they had similar ownership problems impacting the team's competitiveness.
     
  23. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

    Messages:
    5,003
  24. StuckOnYouk

    StuckOnYouk Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,922
    As a Ct resident I’d like to say forget a new baseball team for us. Just give me the Whale back!
     
  25. The Gray Eagle

    The Gray Eagle Member SoSH Member

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    12,218
    The Red Sox sure seem to value catcher defense way more than catcher offense. Based on the season they just produced, waltzing to the division title and romping past 3 very good teams in the postseason, I am very much inclined to agree with their apparent view of the position.
     
  26. John Marzano Olympic Hero

    John Marzano Olympic Hero has fancy plans, and pants to match Dope

    Messages:
    19,671
    Worse than hockey?

    I know that baseball isn't the NFL or college football, but I think that if the Rays got their shit together they could have as passionate a fanbase as the Lightning. Same thing with the Marlins and the Heat.

    It seems to me that MLB, the NHL and the NBA are fighting for third place in the hearts of Floridians. I don't see why a well-run franchise in either TB or Miami couldn't be bigger than the other franchises that are there now.
     
  27. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

    Messages:
    1,327
    This is true, and Grandal is better defensively than both of them.
     
  28. SydneySox

    SydneySox A dash of cool to add the heat SoSH Member

    Messages:
    14,481
    Also, it’s as likely the Sox did all that despite the catching, not because of it. The outcome doesn’t justify every aspect of the journey.
     
  29. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    10,223
    Sox and Steven Wright agree to a $1.375M deal to avoid arbitration.

     
  30. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

    Messages:
    11,601
    I googled but couldn’t find the tracker site with projections, it seems less than I’d expect given how good he was in limited time. How does that compare to what Cots estimated?
     
  31. DanoooME

    DanoooME Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,022
    It was MLBTR that has projections for arb. They estimated $1.4M for Wright and $1.2M for Hembree.
     
  32. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,908
    Yeah I'd rank it below Hockey, and even think the Lightning are pretty decent supporting example of that.

    You also forgot to add Nascar in the what baseball isn't category down here btw ;)
     
  33. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    15,611
    Swihart settles at 910K.

    Arbitration figure exchanges end today. The one most to watch is Mookie.
     
  34. Trotsky

    Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    2,033
  35. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    5,072
    Nice! That's like 30K for every dinger he's gonna hit.
     
  36. bosox0192

    bosox0192 lurker

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    135
    Heyman says 20M for Mookie.
     
  37. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    36,535
    Good thing they didn't have to go to arbitration with Mookie.
     
  38. budcrew08

    budcrew08 Member SoSH Member

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    5,040
    Alex Speier has it on Twitter too.

     
  39. nattysez

    nattysez Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,359
    I'm ecstatic that they didn't force him to go to a hearing again. That was idiotic last year.

    Multiple writers tweeted out after this that Mookie could be the first $400m or $500m contract when he hits FA. Of course, this is the same thing they said about Machado and Harper -- I'm not sure those contracts will ever happen.

    Edit:
     
    #1389 nattysez, Jan 11, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
  40. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    36,535
    $20 million is still a bargain for what Mookie's production projects to be. I agree with the fact that he won't be getting the $400 or $500 million. Betts will be 28 years old at FA. If Harper and Machado who are younger don't get the 10 year deals at $300 plus million, then Betts won't get more than them. That doesn't mean Betts won't go to the open market and see if he can top those 2. One thing is true: he won't be giving the Red Sox any type of discount.
     
  41. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    15,622
    Not exactly LOL:

     
  42. Rasputin

    Rasputin Will outlive SeanBerry Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    29,151
    If I'm the Red Sox, I offer him an extension at a little more than whichever of these clowns gets the most and I do it like a day later.
     
  43. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    5,072
    Did he get permission to use that nickname from Walt Dropo, Bryan Haas, and Mike Mussina?
     
  44. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,611


    Leon 2.475M



    ERod 4.3M

    So far, from the projections:

    Red Sox (12)

    • Mookie Betts (4.070) – $18.7MM, actual 20MM, +1.3MM
    • Xander Bogaerts (5.042) – $11.9MM
    • Jackie Bradley Jr. (4.150) – $7.9MM
    • Eduardo Rodriguez (3.130) – $4.8MM, actual 4.3MM, -0.5M
    • Brock Holt (5.052) – $3.4MM
    • Tyler Thornburg (5.057) – $2.3MM, actual 1.75MM, -0.55MM
    • Sandy Leon (4.149) – $2.3MM, actual 2.475MM, +0.175MM
    • Matt Barnes (3.110) – $1.5MM
    • Brandon Workman (4.051) – $1.4MM, actual 1.15MM, -0.25MM
    • Steven Wright (4.087) – $1.4MM, actual 1.375MM, -0.025MM
    • Heath Hembree (3.106) – $1.2MM, actual 1.3125MM, +0.1125MM
    • Blake Swihart (2.164) – $1.1MM, actual 0.91MM, -0.19MM
    Net difference from projections with 4 players to go: 0.0725MM ($72,500) more than projected
     
  45. The Gray Eagle

    The Gray Eagle Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    12,218
    Sure, but there has been no rumor of the Red Sox being interested in improving their catching at all this offseason. The only catching rumors have been whether they might trade Swihart and not carry 3 catchers again.

    Seems like if they thought the catching situation was "one of the worst positional situations in baseball" they might try to improve it. Even if they thought that they won last year despite a bad catching situation, seems like there would be rumors of them trying to improve it. There's been plenty written about them trying to improve the bullpen, for example.

    If they dump Leon or Vazquez at any point this offseason, then I will agree that they thought the position wasn't good enough. Or even if there are multiple reports talking about how they want to bring in someone better, then sure. I haven't seen anything like that reported (other than some fan speculation, which is pretty much worthless.)

    Otherwise, I think they are happy with the catching, and they should be, as catcher defense has a huge impact on pitching and that doesn't come across in BP defensive runs saved or whatever.

    I highly doubt that the team thinks their catching situation sucks, even though a lot of fans seem to.
     
  46. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,611
    To second the above post, they seem to really like Leon, as I just posted he got higher than projected salary in arbitration
     
  47. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

    Messages:
    659
    There was a rumor involving Cervelli early in the offseason:

    [/QUOTE]
     
  48. TimScribble

    TimScribble Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    648


    Here are all the numbers:


    Mookie Betts - $20m

    Xander Bogaerts - $12m

    Jackie Bradley - $8.55m

    Eduardo Rodriguez - $4.3m

    Brock Holt - $3.575m

    Sandy Leon - $2.475m

    Matt Barnes - $1.6m

    Steven Wright - $1.375m

    Workman - $1.15m

    Swihart - $910k
     
  49. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,611
    • Mookie Betts (4.070) – $18.7MM, actual 20MM, +1.3MM
    • Xander Bogaerts (5.042) – $11.9MM, actual 12MM, +0.1MM
    • Jackie Bradley Jr. (4.150) – $7.9MM, actual $8.55MM, +0.65MM
    • Eduardo Rodriguez (3.130) – $4.8MM, actual 4.3MM, -0.5M
    • Brock Holt (5.052) – $3.4MM, actual 3.575MM, +0.175MM
    • Tyler Thornburg (5.057) – $2.3MM, actual 1.75MM, -0.55MM
    • Sandy Leon (4.149) – $2.3MM, actual 2.475MM, +0.175MM
    • Matt Barnes (3.110) – $1.5MM, actual 1.6MM, +0.1MM
    • Brandon Workman (4.051) – $1.4MM, actual 1.15MM, -0.25MM
    • Steven Wright (4.087) – $1.4MM, actual 1.375MM, -0.025MM
    • Heath Hembree (3.106) – $1.2MM, actual 1.3125MM, +0.1125MM
    • Blake Swihart (2.164) – $1.1MM, actual 0.91MM, -0.19MM
    Net difference from projections: 1.0975MM ($1,097,500) more than projected
     
  50. geoflin

    geoflin Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    369
    And that amount is primarily due to the 1.3 million over Mookie's projection which clearly sends him the message that the Sox are serious about making him happy and keeping him long term.
     

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