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2018-19 Offseason Thread

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Devizier, Oct 29, 2018.

  1. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    4,189
    Yeah I can see that. Cora has so much credibility that he'll get buy-in as long as it's not too chaotic a plan.
     
  2. Dewey'sCannon

    Dewey'sCannon Well-Known Member Silver Supporter

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    555
    It could be "none of the above." Kimbrel could be considered to be "worth" the same as Chapman, but as I posted earlier, this isn't the only consideration. The other part is the level of demand in the market for his services - if there are no teams than need a closer that are willing to spend $15-17M for one for 4-5 years, then he won't get that much. As we are seeing, given the supply of high-end relievers on the market, teams that have a need are opting for lower-cost options. Players have to be careful that there's still a chair available when the music stops.
     
  3. The Filthy One

    The Filthy One Member SoSH Member

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    1,780
    Didn't see this posted anywhere yet, but apparently the Sox have signed minor leaguer Ryan Weber (RHP). He's 28 and threw 115 IP last year for Tampa Bay's AAA team in Durham. Seems like a pure rotation depth move.

     
  4. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    Or hunting for the next Brasier?
     
  5. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    2,908
    My guess is DD would like him back. If the money is right and not too potentially damning going forward, of course.

    I mean at the end of the day we already have a lot of GFIN appeal invested into this season, and not much of a reality based fallback plan in the event the whole "subtract 2 of your best guys and THEN run with a new situational bullpen approach" gets exposed for not having enough overall quality early.
     
    #1305 MikeM, Dec 22, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2018
  6. keninten

    keninten lurker

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    514
    Bryce Brentz is back
     
  7. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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  8. Mike F

    Mike F Mayor of Fort Myers Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I shouldn't rush to judgement. Being old and not having a lot of years left to enjoy Sox championships, I sometimes jump the gun and celebrate terrific news too soon.
    I stopped reading The Filthy Ones post above after seeing that Weber threw 115 last year. Shoulda finished the Report.
     
    #1308 Mike F, Dec 22, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2018
  9. InsideTheParker

    InsideTheParker Member SoSH Member

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    23,448
  10. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    31,066
    Other than the fact that he had almost 15k/9 during his time here. Kimbrel was a terrific closer for the Sox, one of the best in baseball. Not having him would have been scary.
     
  11. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    48,030
    But, both BBREF and Fangraphs will tell you Benintendi is not a plus fielder. Luckily, our other two outfielders are way plus. Sometimes, the more modern stats produce results that, to me, just don’t seem to align with the player. Case in point, Benintendi’s fielding.
     
  12. Rice4HOF

    Rice4HOF Member SoSH Member

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    1,711
  13. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    17,915
    Not sure how you're defining "plus" here, but:

    2018 UZR in LF: 5.2
    2018 DRS in LF: 4

    It's true that his numbers are worse in CF, and the amount of time he spent in center this year pulled his overall BBref dWAR slightly below the 0 mark, but the advanced metrics definitely agree that he's an above average left fielder.
     
  14. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Doesn't Fenway screw with that too or did they fix those issues?
     
  15. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    In the context of the game situation and it ultimately leading to a championship, is Benintendi’s catch the best defensive play in Red Sox history?
     
    #1315 bosockboy, Dec 22, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2018
  16. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    48,030
    That’s what I meant, i.e, his overall defensive metric is negative with both BBREF and Fangraphs. You’re right that he did break into the black in 2018 in UZR and DRS for left field. Eye test also, he is a good left fielder to my eyes.
     
  17. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    31,066
    It depends on whether or not you count the work that Pasty Dougherty did for the 1903 Americans.
     
  18. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    48,030
    You mean it surpasses Dwight Evans’ catch off Joe Morgan because the Red Sox didn’t win game 7 in 1975?
     
  19. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    Partially yes, and also that it was a definitive win or lose catch. 21% catch probability....
    has anyone seen any numbers applied to Dewey’s? Would be interesting to compare.
     
  20. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    57,992
    The Benintendi catch is being overrated by the AP.

    We don't know what would have happened to the ball had he not caught it. It's possible it gets by him and three runs score. It's also possible that he gets enough of it to keep it in front of him ... and only the tying runs score.

    In that scenario, the Red Sox still could have won that game. Heck, even if they lose Game 4, they could still have won the series.

    Great play at a key moment, sure; but compared to the twin buzzer-beaters by the Notre Dame women's basketball player, it's not in the same league
     
  21. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    39,510
    I was with you until the end, but both the Notre Dame games were tied so those weren’t win or lose plays either.
     
  22. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    21,236
    Nunez and Pearce’s play in game 4 against the Yankees was arguably better, and probably would have led to an elimination game.
     
  23. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    57,992
    Completely forgotten about that one
     
  24. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    Yep I agree, good call. That it ended a Yankee season adds quite a bit also.
     
  25. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    15,592
    https://nypost.com/2018/12/21/manny-machado-wont-make-free-agent-decision-until-new-year/

    Mark Feinsand‏Verified account @Feinsand 2h2 hours ago
    According to sources, the Red Sox are still in the mix for free-agent reliever David Robertson. There’s mutual interest, though several teams remain in contention for the RHP.
     
    #1325 DeadlySplitter, Dec 22, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2018
  26. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    1,324
    Feinsand reporting that the Diamondbacks are floating Archie Bradley packaged with Greinke in an effort to move the latter's contract.

    The D-Backs are in fire sale mode and have four other players that would fit very well with our roster needs — Ahmed, Avila, Bradley, and Chafin. There are reasons to be wary of Greinke (age, velocity), but I'm not worried about his old anxiety stuff from 10 years ago. He's extremely costly annually but it's short years, and if Ahmed/Bradley/Chafin are attached (or some combination and $) it gets kinda interesting.
     
  27. InsideTheParker

    InsideTheParker Member SoSH Member

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    23,448
    I was reviewing some of the post-season games today on mlb.tv, and that one was not only amazing, but a real tension breaker to end one of Kimbrel's excruciating post-season outings. Heart-attack city!
     
  28. pdub

    pdub Member SoSH Member

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    447
    Is Kelvin Herrera going to be playing at all this upcoming season? Could be a decent recovery project for 2019.

    I can't see this happening because we have other players who will require extensions soon. Its a solid idea but I assume the front office wants to free up money for potential Betts, Sale, and/or Bogaerts extensions. But I think getting Grienke as your #3 or #4 would be a solid win now move (if not quite expensive).
     
  29. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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  30. BornToRun

    BornToRun Member SoSH Member

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    10,716
    My guesses are Sale, Beni, or Eddie. I’d be thrilled with an extension for any member of our core so this is exciting news no matter what.
     
  31. OCD SS

    OCD SS Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    7,207
    I have a hard time seeing the team looking to extend Sale given his health concerns as he finished the season.

    Extending Benni would represent a change in strategy from the other core players (Mookie, X, JBJ - although that could just be a matter of the Boras factor). Locking Bennie up increases his guaranteed money and probably pushing the Sox over the second CBT limit in the short term, but maybe limiting their exposure down the road. I still don’t see him as a better option in CF than JBJ or Mookie
     
  32. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    15,619
    With all the Daniel Bard talk, I’ve been thinking about the 2011 Red Sox.

    Assuming that the team is going over the top CBT threshold, should the Red Sox sign Jed Lowrie and jettison Núñez?

    The thinking would be that we need quality depth at 3B and especially 2B, and Lowrie could bolster that depth. He's a switch hitter, and he's a good hitter, and after a long and storied injury history that I don't need to remind anyone here about, he has more than 1300 PA in the last two seasons. Those seasons have yielded identical .347 wOBAs. That level would best Eduardo Núñez’ most recent level of production by .055 — a ton — and generally lengthen the lineup.

    He’s not great at SS, and has mostly played at 2B in the last few seasons, where he’s bounced around league average. +5 last year, -5 the year before.

    He earned $6m in 2018 as the team option on the back of a 3/$23m deal. I’d think he could be had on a one year deal at a value under $10. At 34, he’s not getting any younger.
     
  33. Scoops Bolling

    Scoops Bolling Member SoSH Member

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    3,675
    There is no chance in hell that Jed Lowrie, coming off a 4.9 WAR season a year after putting up 3.6 WAR, would sign with anyone to be a "depth" player, let alone for less than $10 million. That is batshit insanity that belongs on an ESPN comment thread, not SoSH.

    EDIT: MLBTR has Lowrie seeking 3/30, and notes "industry experts" expecting a 2/18 or 2/20. So that AAV may be right, but the chance of a one year deal remains minimal, particularly given the fact that the Brewers and Nationals are both reportedly interested.
     
  34. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    39,510
    I also think a one year deal for Lowrie is unlikely, but on the other hand, there are going to be a lot of guys left standing around hoping for opportunities when the music stops, and a ton of them are second basemen. Lowrie is probably the best of the bunch though, so unlikely he will have to settle for a one year deal as Scoops said.
     
  35. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    12,259
    MLB expansion is needed
     
  36. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    15,619
    You're totally right; sorry if that seemed like way-out low-balling. I was responding to some media speculation that his market seemed not to be materializing, which I didn't mention but probably should have.

    My comment was intended more in the spirit of:
    1. Lowrie's market seems to be slipping; it's not really clear who is both contending and thus in the market to acquire high-priced veteran players, and also has a need at one of his positions.
    2. Basically, NYY, NYM, CLE, HOU, ARI, OAK, LAD, CHI, STL, ATL, CIN, TB, MIN, SF, and SD all have or have recently acquired established incumbents. That group contains pretty much all of the contenders. MIL should take a look at him. WAS is another possibility, depending on how they feel abut Difo. Maybe Anaheim's a landing spot?
    3. Pedroia's health is a real question mark, so we probably have at least a significant role for a bench MI. If Pedroia is actually going to play 130 games, we could trade him.
    4. Lowrie's an excellent player; more pointedly, he's likely to be a much better player than any of Núñez, Holt, Lin, Hernandez, et al. are likely to be.
    5. He's had a long and successful career and made tens of millions of dollars, but doesn't have a ring.
    6. We're likely headed over the top CBT threshold after we sign a reliever; if and when we do that, we should be trying to maximize the 2019 25-man roster in any way that doesn't impact the 2020 and 2021 teams. Adding a 5 win player to our IF depth definitely helps with that.
    7. He probably knows Alex Cora pretty well. Although they were not teammates, I don't think, they overlapped for a few Spring Trainings.
    8. The Junior Investment Banker jokes we used to make in the game threads were fun.
     
  37. edoug

    edoug Member SoSH Member

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    Cora and Lowrie were teammates on the '08 Sox.
     
  38. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Lowrie is not going to sign with the Red Sox, even on a one year deal. They don't have a role for him. Yes, Pedroia is a question mark but he is expected to play this year. Lowrie isn't going to sign somewhere where he is a contingency plan in case the other guy might possibly be hurt enough to not play full time. He's not that desperate for a job. If he reaches that point, the A's will bring him back. In fact, that's exactly where I expect him to land.
     
  39. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    11,584
    Desperately. Political pressure holding the antitrust exemption hostage should be applied if necessary.
     
  40. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Yes, because the Rays and Marlins are doing so well. And attendance was under 70 million for the first time in 15 years.

    It is because there are too many good players.

    That's a new one, at least!
     
  41. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    12,259
    You intentionally chose two poor baseball markets which have always struggled to be successful. I'm all for moving one or both of the teams out of Florida to cities that could better support a major league fan base.

    My argument for 2 more teams isn't simply that there is enough talent to fill out the rosters, it's that the sport should be growing into new markets.Teams are profitable, the sport is doing well, and there is mostly competitive balance. If there's a time to do it, it's now. CBA issues notwithstanding.
     
  42. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    The Rockies had over 3M attendance last year, and Arizona was over 2M, ranking them 7th and 16th in the majors, respectively.

    MLB topped $10B in revenue for the first time ever in 2018.

    Miami topped 2M of road attendance, as did Tampa. The only team below 2M of road attendance was Kansas City (who was also below 2M of home attendance). I mention road attendance because the teams need someone to play against.
     
  43. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    12,259
    Total sidebar meant for another thread, but would New England ever support another baseball team? I don't think Portland is farfetched being so far from Boston.
     
  44. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    Portland is ranked as the 105th largest MSA:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_statistical_areas

    You're better off talking about Hartford, stealing from both the Boston & NY metro areas.

    Edit: The entire population of NE is around 14M people, 2/3 of the NYC MSA and slightly larger than the LA MSA. Hartford is splitting 34M people 4 ways, essentially, while Portland is taking half a million people.
     
    #1344 SirPsychoSquints, Jan 9, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2019
  45. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    Portland, Oregon is a few thousand miles away and would almost certainly be one of the top choices for an expansion franchise.
     
  46. OCD SS

    OCD SS Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Wouldn’t expansion likely be into Canada (a return to Montreal) or Mexico?

    Getting to 32 teams would set up into 2 16 team divisions would be nice.
     
  47. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    33,105
    Of course I picked the two worst teams, that's how you show the league isn't ready for expansion.

    MOVE the Florida two teams before you start adding teams. Make sure those next two markets can support teams before we start adding more and digging deeper
     
  48. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    And what would you do about the playoffs? Three teams with the best record get in, and 4th and 5th play it out?
     
  49. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    If you go to 32 teams you follow the NFL model with 4 divisions and 2 wild cards in each league.
     
  50. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    Options, some of which are totally unrealistic due to territory & such:
    1. Hartford - population & wealth to share between NY & BOS
    2. Newark - population & wealth to share between NY & NJ
    3. Charlotte - 22nd largest MSA, largest without a team, supports other major league sports. Braves territory.
    4. San Antonio - farther from Houston than Charlotte from Atlanta or Portland from Seattle, 24th largest MSA, Austin closer to here than Houston
    5. Portland - the common suggestion, 25th MSA
    6. Vegas - 28th MSA, NHL worked surprisingly well, no MLB team within 4 hours
    7. Montreal, duh
    8. Nashville - 36th largest MSA, 14% growth since 2010, 3.5+ hours from nearest MLB team(s)
    Others that I don't think make much sense, but are on the periphery of large enough and have impressive growth rates:

    1. Jacksonville - 40th MSA, 12% growth
    2. OKC - 41st, 10%
    3. Raleigh - 43rd, 18%
    4. Salt Lake City - 48th, 11%
     

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