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2018-19 Offseason Thread

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Devizier, Oct 29, 2018.

  1. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I just don't understand why people seem so certain that he'll opt out. He'll be two years older and two years further removed from full time OF duty. He'll have 3/$62.5 remaining and he wasn't exactly overwhelmed with suitors last time. I think it's just as likely he opts in.
     
  2. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    1,294
    I think he'll opt out. Cleveland, Houston, and maybe Oakland will all have DH openings, and while it's not in his job description, there's more documented evidence that JDM's instruction can significantly improve hitters around him.
     
  3. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Cleveland and Oakland are going to give him significantly more than 3/$62.5?
     
  4. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    More than $62.50
     
  5. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    Maybe not, but Houston might. Chicago, Texas, Baltimore, Detroit, and Toronto have all spent big in the past and will have lots of payroll room. Maybe even an NL team might be convinced he cold play LF. And then of course, Boston would be in the mix to re-sign him. It only takes one team to tack on extra year or bump him up to 25 mil.
     
  6. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    1,294
    Oakland likely not, but Cleveland just gave that to an inferior player in Encarnacion, who was a year older than JDM at the time he signed.
     
  7. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    They gave EE 3/60 ... they're not going to give JD the 5/150 or so that he'd command if he opted out
     
  8. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    I think it will get resolved before it gets to that point. The Sox will add a bit on and get it done.

    JDM seems the type that isn't afraid to tell Boras to get something done.

    Maybe do 3/69 and call it done.
     
  9. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Once Harper and Machado set the market, JD isn't going to settle for an ave per year of $10M less.

    Besides, 3/69 is physically impossible
     
  10. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    5/150, huh. So you don’t think he’ll clear $200 million?
     
  11. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    if he can get someone to give him 7/210+, more power to him
     
  12. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I doubt he clears $100 mil.
     
  13. Dewey'sCannon

    Dewey'sCannon Well-Known Member Silver Supporter

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    If he's fully healthy this year and opts out, I suspect he may be able to get a fourth year guaranteed (at least from an AL team) at a comparable or slightly higher AAV, and maybe a vesting option for a fifth.

    But my priority for next offseason would be to re-sign Bogie (although I think they would like to extend him this spring, its probably unlikely with Boras). For me, Xander is #2 in line to keep, behind Mookie.
     
  14. YTF

    YTF Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Not even close.
     
  15. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    If the MFYs don't sign Harper/Machado this offseason, I would not rule them out as motivated suitors for JDM should he opt out next offseason. That Little League distance RF porch in The New Bidet would be ideal for JDM's approach.


    :fonz:
     
  16. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    It was sarcasm.

    I think he'll probably opt out and restructure a deal with the Sox for something like 4/$80m and there'll be a few teams involved, but no, I don't think he'll get more than the $125m he signed for last year.
     
  17. YTF

    YTF Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Sometimes hard to tell. LOL.
     
  18. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    Another factor in JD’s case is that he came into FA with really only a year and a half of greatness to sell. He’s now got 2-1/2 years and after this year he’d have really established the 950+ OPS baseline. So, while his age may limit his years and below average outfield skills trim some off the AAV, he’s a better bet than he was last offseason (assuming he’s good again this year).

    I say he opts out and ends up with between 4/$90 and 5/$125.
     
  19. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    This is a good point. I don't think people thought he was for real last year; if 2019 is a repeat of 2018, that won't be the case next winter.
     
  20. HangingW/ScottCooper

    HangingW/ScottCooper Member SoSH Member

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    Other trade candidates to reduce salary:
    Mitch Moreland: $6.5 mil
    Eduardo Nunez: $5 mil
    Brock Holt: $3.5 mil (estimate)
    Sandy Leon: $3 mil
    Christian Vazquez: $3 yr/$13.55 M

    I understand not wanting to part with Nunez or Holt due to Pedroia's uncertainty but they're certainly an option for salary relief. If you want to roll the dice in a league minimum salary for Tulo to go along with Marco Hernandez and Tzu-Wei Lin there are options to be had.
     
  21. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    The point (which I realize I'm getting into broken-record mode on by now) is that a good front office is always to some degree balancing near- and long-term viability, and the year immediately after a championship seems like the silliest possible time to scrap that balancing act in favor of "all in" GFIN mode.

    As for having a large payroll and being high profile, that's presumably going to be true in 2021 as well as 2019 -- so winning is going to be important then, too, and it's Dombrowski's job to think about what he can to make winning possible then, as well as now. Of course the further out you go, the less control you have over things, so it's reasonable to prioritize the short term to a degree. But only to a degree.
     
  22. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    As moondog stated, this is a solid point. Additionally, JDM's desire to play the OF full time may factor into a decision to opt out.
     
  23. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    Maybe I'm paranoid but suddenly there are Pete Abe and Speier pieces both throwing cold water on the idea of trading JBJ. Abraham even comes out and says that if the Sox were thinking they could replace Jackie with Gorkys Hernandez, they were being foolish. So I wonder if the Globe caught wind of the Sox giving some real consideration to this and are putting on the full court press to stop them? Is this a thing even? I'd imagine that some public blowback against the idea would give the Sox some pause.
     
  24. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    Successful GMs do not make personnel decisions based upon fans opinions (see: Garciaparra, Nomar - July 2004)
     
  25. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I doubt it's a particularly serious thing, but I'm certain that DD isn't going to let public blowback affect his dealings even one iota.
     
  26. Clears Cleaver

    Clears Cleaver Lil' Bill SoSH Member

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    it's more likely they read SoSH and/or Twitter and asked their Sox contacts
     
  27. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    mmm... I mean, that sounds nice but most people are impacted in some way by the opinions of others. I'll concede it's a rare situation where the fans' opinions are relevant because we usually have very little information to work from, let alone experience. So 99% of the decisions GMs make would not benefit from considering what we think. But here the issue would be Bradley's popularity itself, which is a potential obstacle or at least something to think about before making a deal. Trading popular players affects the atmosphere around the team. So you can do it, but you'd better be able to make a good argument for the trade, and "trying to get under the tax threshold" will NOT go over well.

    To clarify, I'm not saying they look to fans in particular, but when the Globe steps in and starts mobilizing fans, that's different.
     
  28. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    Thank God for baseball savants like Peter Abraham. Otherwise a babe in the woods like Dombrowski might have gotten hoodwinked into thinking that Gorkys Hernandez would be a suitable replacement for JBJ.

    The ONLY thing the Globe reporters "caught wind of" were the tweets (or whatever medium they used) from Nightengale and the like yesterday.

    I doubt/hope that even someone as inexperienced with major league baseball like Dombrowksi would *never* base a decision on "public blowback."
     
  29. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    yeah yeah ok. Well it did seem suspicious that the Globe was suddenly worked up about JBJ being traded. I generally don't think of them as hyper-responsive to tweets, usually assume if Pete talks about a subject like this it's based on more than that.
     
  30. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    mmm...I don't really know if it sounds nice or not. But it's a fact. The Globe "mobilizing" fans has exactly 0% impact on what DD is going to do.
     
  31. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    DD's best *first* step reality option to rebuild this pitching staff beyond 2019 was to give $70m to a guy with Eovaldi's track record.

    If that isn't cause enough to give real consideration towards one of the very limited amount of potential ways he might be able keep situational risks like that down to a bare minimum going forward, I don't know what is.
     
  32. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    No disrespect intended. I've read the bolded 3 times and I'm unsure as to what you're getting at. Can you kindly elaborate?
     
  33. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Ummmm, am I missing something or are folks unaware that the owner of the Globe and the owner of the Red Sox are the same guy?

    So if "the Globe" is against something, then it only takes an internal monologue to make sure the "Red Sox" are against it as well?
     
  34. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    2,900
    In essence it was an arguably needed now but still fairly bad to pay out over the duration contract bet, as are most FA contracts in all fairness, and not exactly of a variety you want to be accumulating more of as the sole building block substitute for our ongoing inability to draft/develop alternative options.

    Sooner rather then latter DD is either going to figure out a way to trade for some cost controlled pitching options, and probably tick some posters/media here off for breaking up the band, or he is going to end up going down the transition through free agency road that is always a pretty safe bet to end with a notable amount of bloated/dead money pulling up in back round. Which just ends up basically ticking off everybody in the long run

    There really isn't a middle ground for him to realistically take there imo.
     
    #1184 MikeM, Dec 12, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2018
  35. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    I read him as responding to Savin Hillbilly above.

    He means that signing Eovaldi was a move that — whatever the merits — is certainly extremely risky.

    It also probably was the move that made the most sense for the roster. I think MikeM is saying that tells us something about the balance of near and long term, namely that it's a risky bet that emphasizes winning in the next year or two, because it's hard to see how we're going to hold a competitive roster together without getting serious contributions from a thin farm system. And if that's what he's saying, I think he's right.
     
  36. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    Gotcha! Thanks for elaborating!
     
  37. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    Cashman says the Yankees are a fully operational Death Star

    A. The Death Star was blown up multiple times

    B. The Death Stars have always had a fatal weakness
     
  38. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I think it was just a spur of the moment Evil Empire joke, but yeah. It's got to be hard for someone who enjoys being blunt and straightforward to be in an interview like that and be able to say so little because everything is in flux currently (he couldn't even talk about Happ yet).
     
  39. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    For the record, this was the context, his purpose was to walk back their previously expressed total lack of interest in Harper slightly, maybe as a favor to Boras:

    "We’re prepared to pivot & react at any given moment if things change...If something doesn't make sense today, doesn’t mean it won’t make sense tomorrow. You know what my focuses are, but at the same time, we’re a fully operational Death Star."
     
  40. amfox1

    amfox1 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Rule 5 draft beginning now.

    BAL selects Richie Martin (OAK)
    (will only list BOS transactions hereafter)

    BOS passes in the major league phase.

    No BOS players are selected in the major league phase.
     
    #1190 amfox1, Dec 13, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2018
  41. amfox1

    amfox1 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Tyler Hill is selected by DET from BOS in the AAA phase of the Rule 5 draft. (note: there are no roster requirements with the AAA phase, so Hill isn't coming back)

    BOS selects RHP Anyelo Gomez from NYY.
    BOS selects RHP Andrew Schwaab from DET
     
    #1191 amfox1, Dec 13, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2018
  42. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Glad Austin Rei wasn't drafted but at the same time, his defense must be pretty bad that teams passed on him.

    Tyler Hill is no loss. For him to have any value, he'd have to develop some power and even then he doesn't really project to be a 4th/5th OF type because he's a poor defender at LF with a noodle arm. Hill does have a good eye so if he can somehow hit for contact, he should have decent OBP skills but being limited to LF kills pretty much all his value.
     
  43. amfox1

    amfox1 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  44. amfox1

    amfox1 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Alex Giobbi‏ @AlexGiobbi 40m40 minutes ago
    What are your thoughts on Tigers sidearmer Andrew Schwaab, Contact pitcher who's made it to AA with the Yankees, was tough to score on until this year. Now on AA Erie.
     
  45. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    His minor league stats the past two seasons (again, this past year he was hurt a ton):

    45 g, 77.2 ip, 58 h, 21 r, 17 er, 24 bb, 95 k, 1.97 era, 1.06 whip, 11.0 k/9

    So if he's healthy, he could be part of the next wave of "homegrown"* power arms for the Sox.

    *By "homegrown" I mean came to the Sox from the minors, even if he didn't spend the majority of his time in the Sox' organization.

    Add Gomez to Hernandez, Feltman, Houck, and Groome. Maybe Feltman and Hernandez show up on the scene in 2019 (Feltman more likely than Hernandez probably), and then Gomez in 2020, with Houck and Groome sometime after that. This Gomez signing is a pretty interesting little move.
     
  46. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I think Hernandez is mostly all helium due to his AFL success. He has pitched all of 6 innings above A+ ball and has serious control issues. He had a BB/9 last year of 5.3 in A+. He has no clue where the ball is going.

    edit: He is definitely electric, but he has a ways to go.
     
  47. edoug

    edoug Member SoSH Member

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  48. YTF

    YTF Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    I've seen him interviewed several times over the past year. Yale grad, incredibly smart and very much in tune with today's approaches to the game from both a physical standpoint as well as the strategy/metrics end of the game.
     
  49. edoug

    edoug Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, I think he'd be a good hire.
     
  50. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    How is re-signing your own FA a "substitute" for drafting or developing alternative options? It doesn't affect that process at all. It's not like signing somebody else's QO guy. I mean, yes, the fact that we've really struggled to develop starting pitching is the reason why we needed to sign Eovaldi, but that doesn't mean signing Eovaldi makes it any harder for us to develop starting pitching.
     

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