Yeah, oops. 2002 was the first year one league had 3 100 loss teams. I think this was the 2nd.
2018-19 Offseason Thread
- Thread starter Devizier
- Start date
Fair enough, we just disagree on the trend. I just think non competitive teams aren’t going to waste money anymore, trying to fool their fans.
The news that we’re still interested in Craig fills me with hope and joy, but I think he ends up in Philly. The Phillies have been sniffing around on him and they’ve stated their desire to spend big, even recklessly, this offseason. I think the Phils are most likely to give Craig what he’s looking for or, at least, come the closest to it.
Not to be a nudge, but you have a link for that ? I haven’t seen anything for the Phillies on Kimbrel.
Still isn't. It happened in 1977 too. Every 9-10 years there is a season similar to 2018 as far as suckiness goes. Maybe not 1/4 of the teams losing 95 games, but 7-8 teams losing 90+.
If it's 3 100 loss teams and 25% of teams losing 95, it is. 3 teams losing 100 games in the same division has only happened twice.
edit: Wow, this year really sucked. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/1969-standings.shtml
And this one: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/1965-standings.shtml
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Of course that's way back too. When you have 16-20 teams, having 25% of them lose 95 is considerably easier to do, even with less games.
My bad, initially misread your post. One moment, please.
Edit: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/mlb-rumors-phillies-could-pursue-craig-kimbrel-free-agency
I’m basing my guess off the fact that they have money to spend and lost out on Corbin. I can see them making a splash here.
IMHO the payoff is quite different in baseball. Since the difference between picking 4th and 8th is fairly small, the most important tanking benefits are gained in the young players acquired and salary saved in the return for trading a weaker team's GFIN player.
There is very little reason for a team who is out if contention not to dump every player they have on the last year of their contract. As long as they get more than the compensation draft pick, it would seem to be worth moving any player who is valued by a competitive team. They lose a little negotiating advantage with the traded player, and the compensatory pick but not much else.
There is very little reason for a team who is out if contention not to dump every player they have on the last year of their contract. As long as they get more than the compensation draft pick, it would seem to be worth moving any player who is valued by a competitive team. They lose a little negotiating advantage with the traded player, and the compensatory pick but not much else.
Robby Scott was jettisoned to the Reds for probably nothing. But it opens up a roster slot for a move / signing.
Ken RosenthalVerified account @Ken_Rosenthal 3m3 minutes ago
#Reds acquiring left-handed reliever Robby Scott from #RedSox, sources tell The Athletic. No word yet on return.
EDIT: Looks like it was straight up letting him go on waivers, so literally nothing.
Mark Sheldon (@m_sheldon)
#reds claimed LHP Robby Scott off waivers from #redsox
Ken RosenthalVerified account @Ken_Rosenthal 3m3 minutes ago
#Reds acquiring left-handed reliever Robby Scott from #RedSox, sources tell The Athletic. No word yet on return.
EDIT: Looks like it was straight up letting him go on waivers, so literally nothing.
Mark Sheldon (@m_sheldon)
#reds claimed LHP Robby Scott off waivers from #redsox
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If the Yankees actually look like they can get Syndergaard for a 24-year-old DH with a bottom-10 walk rate and an A-ball outfielder who just lost a year with a broken wrist, then I really hope DD offers up Benintendi in these Mets/Marlins discussions. It's exceptionally easy to replace Beni right now, and I'd happily prefer three years of Syndergaard to seeing him land on the MFY.
Agreed (although I think the Mets might rather have Devers than Beni, given their other OFs). But I think Brodie would get crucified by Mets fans if he sent Thor to the Yankees, even if they get Realmuto in return. The Mets would be better off giving up Nimmo in a deal for Realmuto and signing Pollock as a FA, or trading Thor in a separate deal.
you've been harping this point all offseason. no one else out there is pre-arb and we're right up against the highest tax line already.
I wish him well but Robby may want to take a minute to learn to spell his new city.
They could afford two premium relievers if he was moved. They would have to be confident in Wright as a 5th starter, or have someone else targeted on the cheap.
Just stop. They aren't trading Benitendi and their rotation is set. And the Yankees aren't getting him for that anyways.
A team like the Phillies would take on the entire contract plus give back value. Sox should be listening to offers for Porcello. He’s probably the 2019 version of Kimbrel in the sense that coming into the season we have a pretty good indication he’s not getting resigned.
I'd agree with you and I don't get chawson's fascination with trading Benintendi.
That said....
1. Deal Benintendi for Syndergaard.
2. Sign Marwin Gonzalez.
3. Trade Porcello for a good prospect.
Sox shed about $22m in salary. Obviously offset by Syndergaard's pay (which isn't much), and the cost of Gonzalez' FA contract (can't imagine it will be much more than like $13m a year). So a net savings of maybe $8-9 million. Gonzalez isn't as good as Benintendi, but he's perfectly adequate. Syndergaard could be a major step up for the Sox in the rotation, and he's under control for several more years. And the money savings could go towards another quality reliever. Plus they pick up a good prospect as well.
Dude, give your cop fetish a rest. There are reports that Porcello and others could be on the block and our rotation is very far from "set" for 2020, Mookie's last season, while next year's available options are bad.
I'm not sure how good the prospect would be in that Porcello deal, but yes, I can't see how anyone would think this is a bad sequence.
Trade X in a package for a starter like Syndegaard, trade Porcello for a reliever and salary relief, and sign Tulo or Galvis. Is the team better off?
Syndergaard is supposed to make about $7M this year, I don’t think this saves almost any money.
Feeling out offers for Porcello and Xander is a no brainer. Do I think it gets done? No. But when you have two guys who you don't feel likely to resign and you have a payroll crunch... it's important to feel it out. If you get blown away with something and it can add some length to this roster cycle it is something that has to be considered.
Does Tulo come with bubble wrap? I dont know about you but the double play combo of Pedroia and Tulo would probably be healthy for max 50 games. No thanks.
However if you were to say send out Xander Porcello and get back Thor? That becomes a bit more interesting. Then who becomes the SS? It’s tough to figure that part out.
Shopping Porcello means they must have an idea of what it would cost to retain Sale.
Interesting this all comes out the same day of a rumor of Thor to the Yankees.
Interesting this all comes out the same day of a rumor of Thor to the Yankees.
I don't think one year of Bogaerts fetches Syndergaard (though you did say a package), but if he gets dealt somewhere then Galvis or Iglesias or a trade for Ahmed might work.
So the Sox are currently at an estimated $232mil based on bREF calculations including Arb guesses, and I think (but am not sure) including Rusney Castillo's dead money. So that comes off, but then you add in all the pre-arb guys' salaries and you're back around $230 maybe for 2019 before adding a bullpen piece or two.
Thresholds are $206, $226 and $246m depending on which penalty you are prepared to pay.
So what threshold does a "rival exec" think the Sox are trying to get under? Dumping Porcello outright gets you down near $206 but with a few spots to fill, so that seems pretty unrealistic. Maybe the $226m threshold?
Thresholds are $206, $226 and $246m depending on which penalty you are prepared to pay.
So what threshold does a "rival exec" think the Sox are trying to get under? Dumping Porcello outright gets you down near $206 but with a few spots to fill, so that seems pretty unrealistic. Maybe the $226m threshold?
Listening to offers is NOT the same as actively shopping guys around.
This whole thing strikes me more as GM meetings fodder than anything imminent. Everyone's in one place so more whims and hypotheticals get thrown around between teams than usual, so of course teams are "listening" on certain players. They're probably listening on everybody to some extent. The difference being only how quickly they dismiss the idea. A sample conversation between GM X and Dombrowski...
"So Dave, would you consider trading Mook...."
"NOOOOO!!"
"Well, how about Chris S..."
"NOOOO!"
"Okay, what about Bogaerts?"
"Nn...maybe...what are you thinking? You gotta blow me away to keep me listening."
"Porcello?"
"Make me a serious offer and I might think about it."
"Nunez?"
"Any warm body you got and he's yours."
This whole thing strikes me more as GM meetings fodder than anything imminent. Everyone's in one place so more whims and hypotheticals get thrown around between teams than usual, so of course teams are "listening" on certain players. They're probably listening on everybody to some extent. The difference being only how quickly they dismiss the idea. A sample conversation between GM X and Dombrowski...
"So Dave, would you consider trading Mook...."
"NOOOOO!!"
"Well, how about Chris S..."
"NOOOO!"
"Okay, what about Bogaerts?"
"Nn...maybe...what are you thinking? You gotta blow me away to keep me listening."
"Porcello?"
"Make me a serious offer and I might think about it."
"Nunez?"
"Any warm body you got and he's yours."
I don’t know what a ‘cop fetish’ is, but you’ve stated you want to trade AB enough. It’s not going to happen. And what reports on Porcello? Got a link? Because it’s been floated here doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. And why are we worrying about 2020 right now? Syndegaard will be third year arb by then, he’d cost close to was Porcello does now. But you want to rob Peter to pay Paul and trade away the cheap OFer.
Seriously you’re borderline Plympton/Ellsubry with this. We get it. You think AB isn’t good.
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Re: Porcello and Xander. An extension to Xander would mean higher AAV, if he's not dealt, he won't be extended until after opening day. Porcello on the other hand could in theory be extended prior to opening day as a means of lowering his AAV. It would probably be negligible, but if it saves a few million in AAV they've gotta consider it to some extent.
The trick of extending someone after Opening Day to stave off raising his AAV until the next year is no longer available. Whether they extend Bogaerts today or on April 15, 2019, his 2019 AAV would be affected the same.
Maybe. But I would still bet that there is a better chance of them retaining Porcello than Sale.
Oh I know, what I am not clear about is whether bREF's $232.1m figure includes it as a not very interesting compilation of what John Henry has to pay out, or whether the $232 excludes it for the reason you recite, and is therefore a more relevant gauge of the team's room to maneuver around the LT issues. I think it's the former, which is understandable because bREF doesn't know who will or won't be on the 40-man roster, in theory at least.
Go to MLB Cots. They have tabs on excel sheets for luxury tax vs straight outlay.
Edit: to Chris
Edit: to Chris
As a pure thought exercise, who would be interested in a year of Xander? Milwaukee? Mets, if they move Rosario? Nationals could switch Turner back to the outfield, maybe? They’re not going to trade him to the team with the most glaring need for a short-term shortstop... Cubs and Braves in theory, I guess, but I’m skeptical.
Syndergaard is estimated to make $5.9M in 2019. In his "third year of arb" as you say — which is misleading because he's got another immensely valuable year of team control after that — he'd probably make $10-12M if he stays healthy. It also doesn't really matter, because he's one of the five best pitchers in baseball if he's healthy. He made $3M last season and was worth $30M in surplus value despite pitching 150 innings.
"Robbing Peter to pay Paul" is pithy cliche but it's inaccurate here. I like the idea of trading the cheap outfielder because although his production is valuable, that value is something we're more able to pay for while other teams can't, and more able to develop relative to our other needs. Syndergaard+Gonzalez or +Pollock or, hell, even +Markakis is more valuable than Benintendi+Porcello, and it'd be a smart move to have Syndergaard under contract through 2021 so we don't have to drop $150M on Sale/Cole/Bumgarner next offseason.
It's an interesting question:
What's better for the Sox right now, age, contracts (or what would be a contract if signed by FA), years of control, skill, injury history, everything:
OF Benintendi + SP Porcello
or
OF Marwin Gonzalez + SP Syndergaard
What's better for the Sox right now, age, contracts (or what would be a contract if signed by FA), years of control, skill, injury history, everything:
OF Benintendi + SP Porcello
or
OF Marwin Gonzalez + SP Syndergaard
Benintendi is the best value. Easily. Given Thor’s injury issues I’d go with him being the most desirable piece. Not worth moving him.
Now if you do Xander and Porcello for Thor? Then that’s something to listen to. Maybe the Mets throw in Todd Frazier or someone then you spin Frazier for a SS or RP.