They will not lose any draft picks by signing any of the players you mentioned above (as none of them received qualifying offers). The only potential consequences would be a lower draft pick slot (which may or may not have any real negative impact) and less international pool money (which might have a significant negative impact). The harsh truth is that the 2020 Sox may be sans Sale, JDM, Bogarts and Porcello and that the 2021 Sox may be sans Betts and Bradley as well as the aforementioned foursome. Any way you slice it, the 2021 Sox may be a Wild Card long shot. I'd rather they go over the LT threshold by signing Eo and Britton (if that indeed pushes them there) than not maximize the fantastic talent base that still exists in 2019. With the amount of talent that may be leaving in the 2 years subsequent to 2019, I'm failing to see any long-term philosophy that could adequately insulate against the possibility that the Sox may not be viable WS contenders in 2021. But if you do, I'm all ears (or eyes in this case).
I agree with this outlook, and I think we have to accept that this ebb and flow is how we can continue to amass 3-4 World Series rings every 20 years.
I'll just spitball some contract numbers for the 2019-2020 FAs, assuming somewhat normal health this upcoming year:
-Sale 7/240
-JDM 4/130
-Bogaerts 8/180
-Porcello 4/82
-Betts 11/400
-Bradley 5/90
We're absolutely not keeping the core together. I'm guessing we let Sale walk unless an injury depresses his market, and his AAV/length becomes palatable from a risk-reward perspective. Otherwise, our window will be closing, and it won't make much sense to pay a boatload for his declining seasons. JDM having 75% of last year's production should be enough for him to opt out, and seek to add a year and a little AAV. Khris Davis will likely be available, and you could replace JD's power presence at a discount. Bogaerts will command a long-term deal, and I'd expect us to make a run at him, given the lack of organizational depth and appealing options at SS. Finally, Porcello will probably enter next year's market as a reliable innings eater type, but he'll be paid like a #2 starter with Ace potential based on the CYA season. If the window's closing, we're better off getting similar production from a slightly older player like Cole Hamels.
Further ahead, I believe we'll back up the Brinks truck for Betts, IF and ONLY IF, the seasons in 2020 and beyond don't look like dumpster fires. A new, and stable core would have to emerge. Devers and Chavis putting up All-Star corner numbers, Bogaerts continuing his production SS, Beni taking a step forward in the OF, Casas knocking at the door loudly, Groome getting into a groove, Hernandez showing #3-4 SP stuff at least, Feltman closing like a boss, Ed-Ro showing sustained 2-3 stuff, Price not falling off a cliff, and some Victorino/Gomes/Napoli/Koji type acquisition magic to keep us afloat.
However, if the reality sets in that the window is closing, we'll be in position to revamp the farm in July 2020, or even at the Winter Meetings a year from now (if this upcoming season is largely disappointing). It's John Henry's money, but for future roster construction purposes, I'm ok with the loss of draft and international capital should we blow by the upper-tier threshold.
A repeat in 2019 is not hard to imagine if we do the following:
Sign Eovaldi 4/68, Robertson and Britton to deals around 2/30, and hope Grandal or Ramos falls to something stupid like 1/6. The first 3 can likely be flipped if things start to fall apart. That helps us regain the farm talent lost from penalties. We can do this because we are a big market ball club. We've seen this formula work rather quickly for the Yankees in the last couple years.