2018-19 Offseason Thread
- Thread starter Devizier
- Start date
The Sox also gave 295 PAs against LHP last year to two outfielders who put up a combined .219/.282/.353 line.
I think Marwin would want the bulk of starts, and without trading Pedroia I don't think we can assure that.
and I don't think Pedey is tradeable, so.... there's the blockade.
and I don't think Pedey is tradeable, so.... there's the blockade.
That's pretty unfair to Ben10 to lump him in with JBJ. .247/.301/.393 isn't great, but it's also not far off from league average and more than acceptable. JBJ was at .185/.260/.303, significantly worse. Up until this year, JBJ was fine against lefties though, while Ben10 had all of 164 PA... the same amount of PA he had this year.
Here's what Marwin Gonzalez has played in his 7-year career.
SS-291 games
1B-191 games
LF-157 games
2B-110 games
3B-93 games
RF-4 games
CF-3 games
I think Cora could find enough places to stick Gonzalez to keep him happy.
SS-291 games
1B-191 games
LF-157 games
2B-110 games
3B-93 games
RF-4 games
CF-3 games
I think Cora could find enough places to stick Gonzalez to keep him happy.
I would pass on Gonzalez. His flexibility is appealing but his bat took a big step back this year and it seems like last year's numbers were a fluke. Of the non-Sox on the market, I am really only a fan of the catchers (Grandal and Ramos) and it seems very unlikely that the team is going to go that way.
He had one monster year in 2017 but outside of that he looks like a slightly better Brock Holt. It seems the last things the Sox should be targeting is a super sub.
He started 136 games last year but a typical 'starter' is anywhere from 100 - 150 games. Give him 50 games at 2B, 20 at SS, 30 at 3B, 10 at 1B and 20 in the OF and you're at 130. This would leave a bit less for Brock but enough to keep him playing regularly and leaves 1B with a full 152 games for the Pearland platoon plus keeps the 4 OFs engaged. And all that is assuming Pedey is relatively healthy and there are no other major injuries. Doesn't leave much for a 14th position player to do (e.g. Swihart, Lin, Ball or Travis) but in this day and age the norm is 13 so you can go with a 7-man pen.
Yes, but the trouble is that we probably won't know the answer to that question until it's too late to sign Gonzalez.
Over 2017-18, Gonzalez and Machado have almost identical wRC+ (123 for MG, 122 for MM).
Machado is obviously far better and I'm not arguing they're in the same ballpark value-wise, but Marwin is alright.
The difference being that Manny's bad season was *last* year. And it was sandwiched between 3/4 seasons where he had 6+ fWAR (including this year). Also, Machado is 3 years younger.
Among many other differences, yes. I'm less trying to prove he's Machado-lite than attempting to reframe the narrative about his offensive production the past two years. I'd be less interested if he didn't have such a strong second half.
You are Marwin Gonzalez. You are fielding offers from a few teams including the Red Sox. Let's assume the money is comparable so the decision comes down to plans for playing time and positioning. The Red Sox say "well, we can probably give you X games at 2B when Pedey needs a day, Y games at 1B to spell Mitch, maybe a few games in place of Devers at 3B, and probably a few starts in the outfield, but if someone gets hurt, you'll for sure play everyday in their place". And team X says "we want you to be our full time starting 2B and play 140+ games there, with maybe a few starts in left or SS mixed in as the need arises". Which way are you going to go?
The Red Sox also say you get to play with Alex Cora, which may have significance. Not only intangibly, but as a working model for how Marwin's been used in the past.
This is a good hypothetical but it feels charitable to Pedroia's health and ability, which the Sox will mostly know and we'll speculate all winter (and for the next three seasons).
I guess another question is are people comfortable with Nunez/Holt/Marco/Lin at second base next year?
What if we think about Gonzalez not as a more expensive Brock Holt replacement with more offensive upside, but as a Steve Pearce replacement who is also part of an insurance policy at 2B, SS, and 3B, and a 5th OF? You could potentially have a super flexible bench.
(Pearce hits LHP better than Gonzalez does, it's true.)
Gonzalez – .740 OPS v RHP; .730 v LHP. MI CI CO
Holt – .704 v RHP; .708 v LHP. MI CI OF
Swihart – .733 v RHP; .528 v LHP. C CI CO
Especially with Hernandez and Lin as depth in AAA, this could leave us opportunities to acquire/promote a positionless slugger as a bench bat, especially if we can get a team to take Núñez and his $5m player option off our hands. Nelson Cruz?
I'm not sure Gonzalez is the best use of resources, but it's possible to squint and see it working.
(Pearce hits LHP better than Gonzalez does, it's true.)
Gonzalez – .740 OPS v RHP; .730 v LHP. MI CI CO
Holt – .704 v RHP; .708 v LHP. MI CI OF
Swihart – .733 v RHP; .528 v LHP. C CI CO
Especially with Hernandez and Lin as depth in AAA, this could leave us opportunities to acquire/promote a positionless slugger as a bench bat, especially if we can get a team to take Núñez and his $5m player option off our hands. Nelson Cruz?
I'm not sure Gonzalez is the best use of resources, but it's possible to squint and see it working.
Did it?
I mean, I get it. Also, non-Pedroia, non-Kinsler second basemen (Holt/Nunez/Lin/Phillips) hit .258/.313/.364 over 515 PA in 2018. It's a potential area of improvement, one of maybe few.
I totally see how he could get starter playing time by cobbling together the projected available time at all of the non-catcher positions plus playing time. My point is that this may be hard to accept from his point of view. Some team saying "we want you to be our starting 2B (or LF or whatever) but we will need to move you around a bit when guys need a day off" is different from them saying "look at this spreadsheet, we have plenty of PT for you".
EDIT - Or what @Red(s)HawksFan said better
I really dont want to go into next season with Leon and Vazquez as the primary two. They seem to be adequate catchers, but are just terrible offensively. A better hitting catcher would do fine developing a rapport with the pitchers. Zunino is a pretty solid defensive catcher, and I dont see why he couldnt get to know our staff just as well as those two have. Is the gap between Eovaldi and Wright really that much bigger than the gap between Leon and Zunino? How expensive could Zunino get?
At the risk of oversimplifying, Leon and Vazquez have gotten the bulk of the catching duties for each of the last three seasons. The Red Sox have won the AL East all three of those years, with a World Series championship now to top it off. Even more to the point: Dombrowski has not been shy about moving on from those he perceives as non-contributors. If he or Cora thought either guy were in any way a problem (let alone the problem), they'd have been gone a long time ago. Yes, if Realmuto falls into their lap the way Stanton fell into the Yankees' lap last year, they probably make that deal. Or if Ramos's price drops to like two years, $5 million (total), they probably entertain a deal like that. But the idea of them walking away from those two is pure wishcasting.
Marwin will be worth more to some other team that can guarantee more playing time, for multiple years, than the Red Sox. And the offers he receives will reflect that. He will not be coming here. Move on.
I really don't see them doing much with regard to position players, other than exercising due diligence in tracking the market and looking for opportunities. Bringing Pearce back may be the priority here, and if not him, someone comparable, but probably not on a long-term deal.
Their priorities will be (1) figure out what to do with the bullpen; and (2) see if they can bring Eovaldi back on a reasonable deal, or someone else on modest-to-medium money for three years or less to help shore up the rotation. I think they want to maintain as much payroll flexibility as possible for next offseason, and the one after that.
I really don't see them doing much with regard to position players, other than exercising due diligence in tracking the market and looking for opportunities. Bringing Pearce back may be the priority here, and if not him, someone comparable, but probably not on a long-term deal.
Their priorities will be (1) figure out what to do with the bullpen; and (2) see if they can bring Eovaldi back on a reasonable deal, or someone else on modest-to-medium money for three years or less to help shore up the rotation. I think they want to maintain as much payroll flexibility as possible for next offseason, and the one after that.
In 143 PA against righthanders, Swihart had a line of .275 / .336 / .412.
Sandy Leon had an OPS+ of 41 on the season; 44 against RH pitching. And, over the second half of the season, he went 11-116, with an OPS -- yes, OPS -- of 330.
By way of comparison, 26 NL Pitchers with at least 30 at bats had a higher OPS than 330 last season. To choose one at random, Zach Greinke's was 561.
If the Red Sox bring back Sandy Leon, they are not a smart organization. Given that they are a smart organization, I expect Leon will be traded or non-tendered.
Last edited:
I agree Leon may be traded but to say an organization is smart because of it is ridiculous. Organizations have to do whatever their best opportunity is. This seems to be what alot of people think in the off season. That you can magically get whatever you exactly need. In fanworld you can do that so have at it, I guess.
Well, the issue with your statement is that they don't "need to magically get whatever they exactly need." All they'd have to do is release or trade Leon, as Swihart would be his direct replacement (and Swihart, hitting righties acceptably well, isn't the worst idea to somewhat platoon with Vazquez.)
What we don't know is exactly how the team values Leon's game calling and defense. They obviously like both, but enough to hold onto him? That's the million dollar question.
My point was only that you can`t just get whatever you want, like going to a store and buying some pitching or whatever need the team has. If a catcher on the team will bring us back something decent, even a good low level prospect, I`d be happy. What I was objecting to was the statement that they are not smart if they bring Leon back. If they get more for either Vaz or Swihart, they may go that route but unless we know the details of a trade it`s just fun speculation, not stupidity.
I think Plymp's point is that it would almost be impossible to avoid upgrade by moving on from Leon. Doesn't really matter how you do it--hell, do what you did with Leon to begin with and sign a scrap-heap guy, it would likely be better. There really isn't much of a compelling reason to hold onto him considering the cost of his bat. He finished the season as a bad-hitting pitcher. He's solid defensively and pitchers like throwing to him (I think?), but that can be approximated or, as a team with Boston's resources, even improved on.
Martin Maldonado for one is a FA (ducks), and is a mortal lock for an OPS between 625-675 with excellent defense. If you decided to give the job to Vaz, he'd be a solid veteran backup.
Leon's 2017 though--one of the great outlier years ever. 845 OPS in 283 PAs for a guy at 27 that hadn't cracked 100 total games in his career and had struggled to get his OPS over 450.
Martin Maldonado for one is a FA (ducks), and is a mortal lock for an OPS between 625-675 with excellent defense. If you decided to give the job to Vaz, he'd be a solid veteran backup.
Leon's 2017 though--one of the great outlier years ever. 845 OPS in 283 PAs for a guy at 27 that hadn't cracked 100 total games in his career and had struggled to get his OPS over 450.
Last edited:
Not looking at data right now but IIRC Leon’s terrible numbers coincided with him catching almost every day when Vaz went down. It was almost six weeks before they began giving Swihart even a sniff at catcher. And as we saw with Varitek during those great playoff runs, he looked to be 20-30 lbs lighter at the end of the year from the grind catching put on his body (a problem he, uh, doesn’t seem to be gaving in retirement).
None of which to say Leon is a good hitter. But I also haven’t seen much evidence during his time with the Red Sox that he’s quite as bad a hitter as he was in the second half.
None of which to say Leon is a good hitter. But I also haven’t seen much evidence during his time with the Red Sox that he’s quite as bad a hitter as he was in the second half.
I hadn't noitced that, but this isn't just a one year thing; over his career he's 274/329/404 against righties. You may be onto something.
And they still played Leon and Vaz over him. I don't think they care for Swihart behind the plate.
There is that. I'm just looking at his performance vs righties as something to latch on for a potential role, maybe a supersub who is also somewhere between a second catcher and an emergency catcher? Like, you are more aggressive about pinch hitting for the catcher because the second C getting hurt and having to come out of the game doesn't result in Mitch Moreland behind the plate?
Yeah, but there is Brock Holt. If Pedroia is healthy, it's hard to envision a role for Swihart. That's a big if. I don't think Leon is back regardless. It's a position you could save money on while possibly improving by signing some AAAA guy.
One multi-positional guy that i would consider is Josh Harrison. I don't know if he'd settle for a make-good contract but he might be a decent fit. PNC is pretty deep to left and he has a slight pull profile (as a RHH). Broke his hand this year but that should be a recoverable injury. Holds up pretty well defensively at 2B-3B and has played (but perhaps not so well) the corner OF positions in recent years. Basically a RHH complement to Holt.
Pirates turned down his $10M option so I'd imagine that he's looking for a contract worth half that much (at best).
Pirates turned down his $10M option so I'd imagine that he's looking for a contract worth half that much (at best).
I was looking at that, too. It seems like you could put together a pretty decent catching situation where Vazquez takes 60-65% of the starts, including all starts against LHSP (career OPS against LHP: .669), and Swihart rests him, with the bulk of Swihart's starts coming against RHSP. Basically, a platoon.
If you could get just a .650 OPS out of the catcher's spot, that could be a considerable upgrade over the .533 we got in 2018.
No one said that Boston could "magically get whomever they wanted" to play catcher. What they desperately need is a catcher that hits better than a pitcher. That can't be all that difficult to find.
Does a team that just won 108 games and a World Series with the catchers they have really "desperately need" a better hitting catcher? I can get behind the idea that it would be nice to upgrade the spot offensively, but let's not categorize it as a "desperate" need for the team. It's a want. It isn't a need.
Didn't see this posted already:
@jonmorosi Source: #Phillies interested in Craig Kimbrel, in addition to their well-documented desire to add a superstar position player. #Braves and #STLCards are among the other possible suitors for Kimbrel. @MLBNetwork @MLB
Looks like the QO for Kimbrel was the right move.
@jonmorosi Source: #Phillies interested in Craig Kimbrel, in addition to their well-documented desire to add a superstar position player. #Braves and #STLCards are among the other possible suitors for Kimbrel. @MLBNetwork @MLB
Looks like the QO for Kimbrel was the right move.
It might save their staff some wear & tear if the lineup wasn't functioning with an essential pitcher's spot in it. And it would certainly help in NL parks to not have two pitchers hitting in the lineup.
I get that thanks to the top of that lineup they were able to overcome the horror of Sandy Leon's bat, but you really can't hang your hat on that every year, and it's not like it's that hard to find a solid defensive catcher that's only a bad hitter.
Just registering my expectation that one of our catchers is a Mariner by the end of the GM Meetings.
I guess we dont NEED to improve on anything, but considering how terrible our catchers were last year, it seems like one of the easiest and cheapest ways to improve the team next season. Both of them were really terrible hitters, and average to above average defensively. There has to be another option out there that wont break the bank. Nobody is saying trade for Realmuto, just get someone that can make solid contact against MLB pitchers
Considering that they won 108 games during the regular season and went 11 - 3 in the postseason, they'll probably put emphasis on other areas and figure out a way to continue to use the 3 catchers. It was a bit of a downer in 2018 seeing Mookie come up so many times with nobody on though.
Funny, I've seen quotes from Dombrowski saying that carrying three catchers again next year is not out of the question.
I think DD said something to the effect of: not likely, but not impossible (that they will carry three catchers again).
If one of the current three is going, I hope it's Sandy. I'd be comfortable with a timeshare/platoon of Vaz and Blake. If they can find a better option at a reasonable price on the FA or trade market to upgrade on one of those guys, then sure, but I don't think that's likely. Nor should it be a priority, in terms of trading limited assets or utilizing limited payroll flexibility - bullpen and maybe a SP come well before that.
If one of the current three is going, I hope it's Sandy. I'd be comfortable with a timeshare/platoon of Vaz and Blake. If they can find a better option at a reasonable price on the FA or trade market to upgrade on one of those guys, then sure, but I don't think that's likely. Nor should it be a priority, in terms of trading limited assets or utilizing limited payroll flexibility - bullpen and maybe a SP come well before that.
I think the issue is finding a catcher who hits better than a pitcher *and* who is also a plus defender and handler of pitchers. I doubt other clubs are just ignoring or giving away players like that.