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2017 Yankees Offseason Discussion

Discussion in 'Yankees Discussion' started by crow216, Oct 22, 2017.

  1. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I don't totally believe either part of that until I see further confirmation (I think Gardner should be moved before Robertson, who is their most reliable reliever and has proven he can be used at any point in the game), but pretty damn interesting.
     
  2. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    That is insane.
     
  3. EvilEmpire

    EvilEmpire Dope Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    I agree Gardner should be moved, but I won't be surprised at all if Robertson goes too. Around 24 million total off the books in addition to the space they already have. The bullpen would still be dominant, the market for relievers still looks strong, and Robertson is on the last year of his deal anyway.

    Maybe that puts more pressure on the coaching staff to figure out what the hell is wrong with Betances, but I think that is acceptable risk if the return involves a quality SP.

    It's a shame that even a heavily subsidized Ellsbury is unlikely to move.
     
  4. StuckOnYouk

    StuckOnYouk Member SoSH Member

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    I really like Darvish but if true that is an insane offer from Cashman. 7/160??? Darvish is already 31. I never thought that Darvish was expecting that kind of offer unless he just has no interest in NY and wanted to move the offer around to someone else. Maybe Cashman realized after 2 days he was getting used.
     
  5. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I'm going to choose not to believe that until I hear it from beat reporters and not Michael Kay, and as you say, I will be surprised if Darvish ends up getting that much or more.
     
  6. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    I don't think Gardner should be moved. He makes game winning plays and is one of the few guys they have left who take pitchers deep into the count. Everyone else is a free swinger (Tyler Wade excepted). And Robertson is valuable because he can close when Chapman and Betances are struggling. The guy who should be moved if at all possible is Ellsbury, and Cashman should remember the Ellsburty fiasco whenever he's tempted to offer a 31 year-old pitcher a 7 year deal.
     
  7. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    I don't believe it because Darvish would not turn down a 7 year deal.

    Also, Kay is a goober.
     
  8. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    The Yankees were second in all of baseball in pitches per plate appearance. They all take pitches.
     
  9. cromulence

    cromulence Member SoSH Member

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    And you'd expect that to improve without Castro, and also with Torreyes probably getting a few less ABs this year (hopefully). Torreyes swings at the first pitch as much as anyone I've ever seen.
     
  10. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    Also, more Bird at-bats. Guy works the count.
     
  11. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    835
  12. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Yeah, those two arb settlements happened today, six more guys still to go and the deadline is tomorrow, so I'm guessing the bulk of them will settle by then.

    Also, Judge led the AL in P/PA, Gardner was 7th. If Judge isn't a patient hitter, no one is.
     
  13. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    Yeah Judge goes to a full count every friggin at bat. What do you want the guy to do?
     
  14. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    Stop swinging at pitches low and away in the dirt? 161 strikeouts and another 27 in the postseason.
    I'd like to see him get 161 walks and 127 strikeouts, not the other way around.
     
  15. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I know, right? He should definitely drastically change the approach that saw him run away with the most runs scored in the AL at 128 (Altuve and Springer next at 112), not bad for a rookie but hopefully he can step it up a few notches for you this season. :)
     
  16. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    Who said drastic change? Just better recognition. He's not giving up any home runs by laying off that pitch.
     
  17. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    He does still have some maturing to do, Jon. Everyone knows that. However, John, whatever your point is seems misguided for a player who in his first year in the majors took the league by storm. Spoiler Alert: Every player in the majors has to work on their swing and fix holes during their entire career.
     
  18. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I am just sick of people focusing on batter strikeouts as compared to other outs, especially in Judge's case. Striking out less would mean walking less, and people seem to have this idea in their head about "putting the ball in play" and "productive outs" and it's really close to meaningless.
     
  19. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Adam Warren settles at $3.3M, it's amazing how much more accurate the MLBTR arb numbers are than the Cots ones.
     
  20. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    No offer made to Darvish...per Darvish
     
  21. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    What's wrong with Cashman just filling the third base hole and then standing pat until July?
     
  22. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    Sure, an out is pretty much an out in most situations, and a strikeout is better than hitting into a DP. But when you swing and miss at a pitch that would have been ball four, that's giving up a walk.
     
  23. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    And when you swing and hit a strike over the wall, it’s a home run. And when you do that and drive in runs more than others around the league, including when you touch home, you’re pretty good.
     
  24. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I’d much rather he get Alex Avila to back up C and 1B, Andujar is not a hole but Romine is IMO.
     
  25. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    NY settles all eight arb cases, so I think they are around $176M now, $21M under.
     
  26. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    Good. Now go sign Avila. But I would prefer they avoid signing Darvish or doing any other big money deal that constrains NY in July. Andujar's defense is the issue at third base. Guess Cashman will sit tight and see how the FA market shakes out at 3B. Todd Frazier for one year is a great solution. Not for Todd, of course, but maybe the lure of winning a WS in his home region would ease the pain.
     
  27. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    So this was a very rare week off for Joel Sherman, so it took a few days for the next best NY beat guy (Bryan Hoch) to fully debunk Michael Kay's seemingly fake Darvish news.

    Bryan Hoch‏Verified account @BryanHoch 5h5 hours ago
    Hearing that, contrary to tonight's developments, the Yankees have not made an offer to Yu Darvish.

    Not sure how to mesh that with what Darvish has been tweeting, maybe Cashman told his agent a range NY would be interested in if it gets there?
     
  28. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Olney is doing offseason rankings this week, the ones today are interesting, I will list where he has NY in his top 10s, along with any other AL East teams:

    Rotations: NY (6th), BOS (7th)
    Lineups: NY (2nd, behind HOU)
    Bullpen: NY (1st), BOS (4th)
    Defense: TB (5th), NY (9th), BOS (10th)

    NY, LA, and CLE are the only three teams to be in the top 10 in all 4 categories, also I think it's funny that the Rockies aren't in the top 10 bullpens despite how much they've spent there.
     
  29. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    No news here, but some tweets in the wake of Cole to HOU, I like this writer:

    Dan Federico‏ @RealDanFederico 54m54 minutes ago

    I've heard too many good things about Miguel Andujar in 2017. If he develops into the player some scouts believe he can be, the #Yankees will have another cornerstone talent on their hands. With Cole in Houston, his potential can be met in the Bronx.

    NL Exec: "None of the players the Pirates received are in the same conversation as Andujar. The #Yankees made the right call by hanging onto him."

    Will the #Yankees still look to add to the rotation?: "[Justus] Sheffield, [Chance Adams] and [Albert] Abreu are close. They should have confidence in those guys to step in if someone in the starting rotation goes down."

    Thoughts on Darvish/#Yankees rumors: "[The Yankees] need to stay far away from Darvish. Would he help the team he signs with? Yes. But he's not worth the contract he'll get. Why block the kids with him?"

    Who should the #Yankees target if they look to FA/trades?: "I really like Lance Lynn for them. Quality depth, can go late into the games, not a crazy contract. He'd be a very strong four starter. That's someone they should be after."

    With Darvish, Lynn and other notable free agents available, is Scott Boras really holding everything up?: "To a degree, sure. But I think organizations are getting smarter to the fact that long contracts for players at or around 30 years old rarely pay off."
     
  30. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    Federico makes a lot of sense. He is basically saying, trust the young talent and give them a chance right away. Let them compete for jobs in ST, especially the pitchers. It worked with Montgomery last spring.

    Still think Todd Frazier will cave and accept a 1-year deal, giving Andujar more time to polish his fielding. If not, play Andujar and Torres a lot in spring training and see if their fielding is acceptable. One of them should be a regular in 2018. Maybe not right away.
     
  31. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    This is pretty interesting and makes sense if true, we knew Torres/Sheffield/Florial were off limits in this deal but Andujar also being there means that Cashman wants him at 3B by May or June IMO:

    "But sources familiar with the discussions told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick that New York held the line on including prospects Gleyber Torres, Justus Sheffield, Estevan Florial or Miguel Andujar in any trade, so the Pirates quickly had to shift their attention to other potential targets. One source said New York expressed a willingness to include outfielder Clint Frazier or pitcher Chance Adams in a package deal for Cole, but not both."

    http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22085338/pittsburgh-pirates-trade-rhp-gerrit-cole-houston-astros
     
  32. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    The Cole move doesn't hurt us during the season in any way but it could certainly have a postseason impact if he is the old version of Cole. The weird thing about Cole is that he feels a lot like the rest of the Astros rotation regarding his ability to turn it on for long stretches and lose it for long stretches.

    It's clear the Yankees have no immediate need for a starter and Cashman would be wise to wait until July. However, he has to be worried that Frazier will not get enough playing time to keep his prospect status high and there should be some pressure to deal him before his star fizzles out completely.
     
  33. StuckOnYouk

    StuckOnYouk Member SoSH Member

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    The good thing about getting Cole for NY was he’s pretty damn cheap.
    I’d imagine if cashman is committed to
    getting a free agent starter it will cost him much more
     
  34. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I think as of now Frazier starts the season in Scranton unless two of the five guys ahead of him for OF/DH (Judge, Stanton, Hicks, Gardner, Ellsbury) are out. If just one is out, I think they maybe go with McKinney and still give Clint the regular AAA ABs that he could still use, he is not a finished product on either side of the ball.

    At least one of the forecasting systems had German neck-and-neck with Montgomery for the 5th rotation spot, if given an equal chance. Montgomery wins the tie on experience but good to know they have German and Cessa in the 6th/7th spots, even still ahead of Adams and Sheffield, etc. It is going to be a very competitive camp all around, so much young talent now on the 40 man roster (or wanting to push their way on, like Adams) and itching for their chance.

    Under a month to pitchers and catchers!
     
  35. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    The thing about trading Gardner from a purely baseball perspective is that it would mean Stanton and Judge would both mostly be in LF/RF, and then DH would be freed up for Andujar and Frazier to get a lot more ABs to maybe ease their transition (and the need to improve backup C would again rise so that Sanchez could DH a bunch too). So to me it makes full sense from a baseball perspective, free up more salary space and move Frazier and McKinney up a slot, but Gardner seems to be such a big part of that clubhouse now, glad I am not making those decisions.
     
  36. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Also Brian McCann had a lot to do with winning the last two games of the ALCS but I don't think any Yankee fan regrets moving him, NY got their current 2nd best pitching prospect (Albert Abreu) and the guy with the single hardest average FB at any level of baseball (Jorge Guzman, moved as the main guy for Stanton). You can't really worry about the competition (except in your division somewhat), you need to make the best decisions for your team and pretty clearly Cashman thinks he can do better than Cole if and when he needs to.
     
  37. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    Not a fan of trading Gardner. Keep him and rotate the DH slot among Sanchez, Judge and especially Stanton. Judge played 141 games in RF and was pretty beat up by the end of the season. Stanton played 149 in the OF, way too much for a player with such an extensive injury history. If Judge got 30 games at DH, Stanton 40 and Sanchez 50, that leaves 42 games for Boonie to spread around. Gardner could use 20 right off the bat.
     
  38. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    OK, since we are starved for actual news, let me try and put some numbers to that:

    Judge: 120 RF, 30 DH
    Stanton: 42 RF, 68 LF, 40 DH
    Gardner: 94 LF, 30 CF
    Hicks: 132 CF

    That leaves you 92 games for other DHs including Sanchez, and currently factors in no games for a 5th outfielder, whether that is Ellsbury or Frazier.

    Mine would be more like:

    Judge: 125 RF, 25 DH
    Stanton: 37 RF, 88 LF, 25 DH
    Hicks: 132 CF
    Frazier: 74 LF, 45 DH
    Ellsbury: 30 CF

    So 67 games for non-OF DHs in this one.
     
  39. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    I think Hicks wants to join the group of beastly Yankees....

    [​IMG]
     
  40. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Picking up this conversation from elsewhere. It’s interesting (and horrifying) to bat around, but I’m afraid it’ll piss folks off on the main board.

    I don’t know, I think it’s entirely possible Cashman swoops in if the price is low enough.

    JDM is an elite hitter who’s perfect for Yankee Stadium. He’s the second-highest career wRC+ hitting fly balls to the opposite field of any RHH since 2001 (behind Domingo Santana, who’s only had 95 such PAs). He’s twice-Jeter good.

    I’m sure I don’t follow the clubhouse as closely as you, but it seems like Cashman’s been close to trading Gardner for years. The Giants have a clear two-year Bumgarner window, and Gardner at 2/$23M would seem preferable to them than shelling out whatever Cain’s asking for, and a better production/health bet than Jay/Dyson/Maybin. He’d also help balance a lineup that has McCutchen, Posey, Pence, Longoria, and Crawford from the right side.

    That Stanton’s the Yankees’ nominal DH while still a 28-year-old plus-outfielder seems off to me. Hicks and Ellsbury can handle center, but Stanton plays left. I don’t think they’d lose much of a step defensively, especially factoring the risk of Gardner’s entering his age 35-36 seasons. Regardless, Yankee pitching has the second highest K-rate in baseball and the 21st-highest fly ball rate in 2017.

    I think their interest in Darvish is real, but I don’t see how they’d figure he’s a better investment than Martinez over five years at the same money, and Cobb/Lynn/Arrieta aren’t their types of pitchers. I’d sooner see them trading for Corbin or Archer or even Straily. They have plenty of chips to trade for pitching without relying on FA.

    Lastly, it’s a move that most hurts their direct competition. That’s not about spite, but it’d ensure the Sox aren’t a signing away from making the division a toss up.

    Anyway, I hope that it does not happen. But I don’t buy that they’re not lurking.
     
    #590 chawson, Jan 18, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2018
  41. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I do think they could move Gardner, although he and CC are the closest things they have to captains right now. I do not think, as I said on the main board, that they will have any interest in JDM on a nine figure deal unless one of their hitters has a major injury.

    If you go up a few posts, I also make a case for moving Gardner (the post that starts "The thing about trading Gardner..."), but like I said already I don't think they would bring in a DH-only guy on a long deal. They need to start audtioning the kids on their 40 man (Frazier, Andujar, Torres, etc) and start to get an idea what they have in them before the big decisions on guys like Harper and Machado come next winter.

    Also I don't quite buy that signing JDM would hurt Boston, we've seen so many of these big deals become almost instant albatrosses that it easily could boomerang very quickly. I thought that BOS signed Carl Crawford in small part to keep him away from NY, and we all saw how well that worked out.
     
  42. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    The depth NY has built is crazy, the ZiPS projections are coming out team by team, no HOU or CLE or WAS or CHC yet, but we do have BOS and LAD to compare to NY. I counted the number of projected 1 WAR or higher players in each organization (not including FAs like Todd Frazier or Eduardo Nunez obv):

    NYY: 13 hitters, 14 pitchers
    BOS: 9 hitters, 7 pitchers
    LAD: 10 hitters, 11 pitchers

    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-new-york-yankees/
    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/
    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-los-angeles-dodgers/
     
  43. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    So a Yankee writer for Barstool Sports is reporting that he has a source who is telling him NY is sending Ellsbury along with Albert Abreu to the Brewers. This doesn't make too much sense (Would Ellsbury really waive his no-trade to go to MIL? Doesn't MIL already have too many OFs?), but things are slow and also this guy evidently had the Stanton trade talk early also:

    =================================

    Eric Hubbs‏ @BarstoolHubbs 45m45 minutes ago
    A little birdy told me Jacoby Ellsbury is heading to Milwaukee. Nothing definitive yet, but keep your ears peeled. I'll believe anything at this point

    In regards to Ellsbury trade rumor. Dude who gave me the tip has been dead on before and there's rumors Milwaukee is closing in on an outfielder. Could very well be wrong but I'm inclined to believe it cause it's more fun that way #InCashmanWeTrust

    If Ellsbury accepted a trade to Milwaukee it'd be absolutely crazy land and I'd be convinced Cashman is a sorcerer

    Starting pitcher Albert Abreu was the rumored piece heading to Milwaukee in the Ellsbury deal. Makes sense that they'd eat some of the contract and get a top 10 prospect for their troubles
     
  44. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    Cashman would probably be eating 80% of his Ellsbury's deal. I have no issues with basically any deal where he goes.
     
  45. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    We'll see, Abreu is a really good prospect.
     
  46. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    Gotta love Internet reporting. A little birdy told him. Barstool sports.
     
  47. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    OK, but this guy seems to have had the Stanton move before anyone else, on the morning of the 8th.

    This makes more sense thinking about it, MIL has room to take on salary and would essentially be buying a prospect (or two?), depending on how much salary they’d pick up. Since MIL has a ton of outfielders already, maybe the reason Ellsbury would agree is that MIL would agree to release him after the deal. Dunno, but fingers crossed!
     
  48. ThePrideofShiner

    ThePrideofShiner spooky action from a distance SoSH Member

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    Jerry Crasnick was reporting earlier that the Brewers were closing in on an outfielder, but didn't have any other info.

    Isn't Abreu really young?
     
  49. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    No, he is 22 and already on the 40 man despite probably not being able to contribute in the bigs this year. He was very impressive in the Arizona Fall League, but he only pitched 53 innings before that last year and topped out in high A. He is NY's 2nd best pitching prospect currently behind Sheffield IMO, but moving him along with Ellsbury would free up two 40 man roster spots.

    http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=656061#/career/R/pitching/2017/ALL
     
  50. ThePrideofShiner

    ThePrideofShiner spooky action from a distance SoSH Member

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    Seems scary to give him up then. Why not just release Ellsbury?
     

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