2017 Red Sox Concerns

John Marzano Olympic Hero

has fancy plans, and pants to match
Dope
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Apr 12, 2001
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The Sox look pretty good for the upcoming season, don't they? Strong pitching, strong lineup, decent bullpen. The optimism is something we all feel during this time, but in a few months we're going to look back at ourselves and think we were a little foolish for missing something that seems obvious in retrospect.

There's the usual generic "injuries", "regression" and "Oh my God, what is Farrell doing now?" things that we all think about during the winter and fall. But let's expand this, put on our Karnac hats (Jesus, what an ancient reference) and be a little more specific.

Here are some things I'm (sorta) fretting about:

1. David Price's elbow. They say it's fine, but I'm not sold on it.
2. Sandy Leon, starting catcher. I'm actually a bit surprised that DD didn't do something about this during the winter. After a hot start, Leon fell like a stone.
3. Pablo Sandoval. He has to give the team more production at third base than they got last year, right?
4. Hanley Ramirez and his shoulder. He hit a dinger yesterday and I suppose that he won't be chucking the ball around as a first baseman and DH, but shoulder injuries are no fun.
5. Jackie Bradley's streakiness. At least his defense is consistent.
6. Andrew Benintendi: everyone's ROY. He had a great two months last year and didn't seem phased by the playoffs. Can he do it for a full season?
7. Ortiz' leadership void. I'm not as worried as a lot of people about this, but this seems to be a thing.

There are a couple little things (Pedroia's health and Bogaert's weird second half) but I think that I'm mostly worried about the offense. Which is strange, because that never used to happen*.

* Watch the entire Red Sox staff blow out their elbows when competitive arm wrestling takes over the clubhouse.
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
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I'd like to know that Wright, Pomeranz, and Carson Smith will be dependable contributors.
 

pokey_reese

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I'd like to know that Wright, Pomeranz, and Carson Smith will be dependable contributors.
The first two seem pretty likely, but Smith isn't going to even potentially be available until June, and that's if everything goes right. I would guess that the FO isn't really expecting much from him, and would consider any contributions gravy.
 

TheoShmeo

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I'm less concerned with Ortiz's leadership void than I am with the loss of his production. Farrell's answer is that they have improved the pitching so the run differential ought to even out. He points to Sale and Thronburgh. While Sale is, of course, a huge upgrade on paper, at most he makes 35 starts. So there are 127 games when he contributes nothing tangible to the run differential. And Thornburgh will pitch no more than 80 or so innings.

On the flip side, the Sox have real offensive questions at three places in the line-up. These places show up in every game.

Third is a huge question. Even assuming Pablo is actually in shape (as opposed to relatively less fat) and recovered enough from shoulder surgery to play every day, his numbers over his last few years in SF were just OK. Said differently, Pablo at his best is way short of Ortiz numbers. No news story there but people are pointing to more from third as an Ortiz offset and I think it's far from certain that we will see that or see enough for it to truly be an offset.

At first/DH, Moreland is likely a .250/22 Homers/65 RBI player if he plays every day. If he splits time, as appears much more likely, he probably would put up pro-rated numbers on around those lines. Again, numbers way south of David. Hanley had a great year last year but is already dealing with injury and doesn't have Ortiz around to motivate him. I'm actually reasonably positive about him but even his biggest fan would admit to not being sure what he will give us in light of those two variables. And Chris Young is probably the same guy as last year. I guess the wild card is Sam Travis and how he might fit in.

At C, Leon was a godsend last year but who knows if he can repeat it and, if not, what they will get from either of Vazquez or Swihart. None of those guys have produced with enough consistency to be able to reasonably predict what we will get out of them.

My view is that if first or third was more of a sure thing, then the loss of Ortiz's vast production at DH would be easier to deal with. I also wonder whether it goes beyond just subtracting out David's numbers as if we were playing a video game. Meaning that having to pitch to a beast like Ortiz in the middle of the line-up arguably puts pressure on opposing pitchers, thereby making it a little easier on the rest of the line-up. Without David in there, the other guys may find the sledding to be a little tougher. This is one of those very hard to measure points that might actually matter.

****

While Ortiz is my biggest question, I think number two is David Price. I see this guy as still totally caught up in his underwear. His interview with Grossfield was, at best, bizarre. He's right in a sense in that I don't care what kind of ice cream he likes. But I do worry that the extent to which he seems to have fan reaction bouncing around his cranium could get in the way of performing. That Price is winless in the post-season and put up a 7 plus ERA against the watered down Yankees last year feeds in that. Much more tangibly, trips to Dr. Andrews rarely end well, even if initial reports are good. So call me doubly worried about a guy whose rabbit ears seem to be a factor in his performance and who may in fact be a ticking bomb (and I'm thinking mostly about his reduced velocity last year as an indicator).

****

Last, I still think that John Farrell sucks mightily as an in game manager. I think JF can be counted on to blunder his way to at least a few losses. I know that many seem to think that leadership means a lot more than Xs and Os and that might be true. But I don't really understand why we have to choose.
 

pokey_reese

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Obviously health concerns with Price and Hanley are there, but strictly from a performance standpoint I would say that the offense is likely to be worse with Panda/Leon (current)/Moreland replacing Shaw/Leon (lucky alternate universe)/Ortiz. I worry that Panda won't be much of an improvement over Shaw, that Leon will be the guy he was at the end of the year, and that Moreland will continue last season's decline + reverse split.

There's a chance the Sox lead the league in runs simply by virtue of playing 81 games at Fenway, but I would guess that a park-adjusted offensive measure won't show them in 1st by September.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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My biggest concern is the SP depth. If Price is healthy and they have 6 guys they can count on, then great, but 4 of the 6 (all but Sale and Porcello) are coming off of injuries and the chances that all of them will be effective can't be very high. Johnson and Owens have proven they can't be relied on which leaves us what, Velazquez and Kyle Kendrick? Oy.
 

Otis Foster

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Jul 18, 2005
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"His interview with Grossfield was, at best, bizarre. He's right in a sense in that I don't care what kind of ice cream he likes. But I do worry that the extent to which he seems to have fan reaction bouncing around his cranium could get in the way of performing. "

Spot on. I was shaking my head as I read this. He's got a real thing about fans/press/the weather, whatever. It came across as a surly recital of grievances.

I don't hang around the denizens of talk radio, so I don't know what kind of abuse they've been dishing out, but on the whole, the Glob has handled him in a fairly neutral fashion. This does not sound like a guy who'll be around long term, unless his arm really is shredded beef and he forgoes the opt-out.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Aug 1, 2001
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I'm concerned that they won't be historically healthy again this year and will have more significant injury problems than last year.

"They are unlikely to be as effective in keeping players on the field this year as they were in 2016, when they ranked among the healthiest teams in baseball history. That specter represents an underappreciated element — on top of more obvious ones, like the departure of Ortiz and the possibility of regression by some of their young stars — that contributes to the uncertainty that hovers over the team’s lineup.

The Red Sox were one of the healthiest teams in big league history last year, at least in terms of their position players. They had seven players who played at least 145 games, tied for the most by any team in major league history. Each of the other 11 teams that had seven players in 145 games featured a dropoff the following year, averaging four such players."
 

Toe Nash

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"His interview with Grossfield was, at best, bizarre. He's right in a sense in that I don't care what kind of ice cream he likes. But I do worry that the extent to which he seems to have fan reaction bouncing around his cranium could get in the way of performing. "

Spot on. I was shaking my head as I read this. He's got a real thing about fans/press/the weather, whatever. It came across as a surly recital of grievances.
1. If this wasn't clear after he lashed out at fans on TWITTER a few years ago, pointing to his college accomplishments...It doesn't mean he can't succeed when the pressure is its highest but if I had to pick a temperament I wanted in a clutch performer, his would not be it.

2. pokey reese states that it's pretty likely Wright will contribute -- I disagree. He's a huge candidate for regression not only because of the knuckleball but also because he just wasn't as great as the ERA showed last year -- he gave up a ton of unearned runs.

It's not too hard to see a scenario where Price and EdRod battle injury and Wright returns to mediocre and the back of the rotation is in bad shape. So that's my biggest concern.

3. It was pointed out above but Leon had basically 3 parts of his season:
First 20 games: 1.212 OPS (Where did this guy come from??)
Next 24 games: 1.001 OPS (OK, still pretty amazing)
Final 34 games: .554 OPS

So, maybe he'll hit somewhere in between, which is fine, but obviously looking at the whole of his career, the .554 is a lot closer to what we'd expect.
 

Merkle's Boner

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Catcher is the big one for me. NO way Leon goes through the season as the starter. What's the date they move on from Sandy being the first option? Do they get through May? And I really want Blake to seize that role and run with it for the next five years. I hope he gets the chance.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
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This is a silly thing to say about a 26-year-old and a 24-year-old with less than 100 innings of ML experience between them. I'm not saying they can be relied on, but at this point neither of them has proven anything whatsoever.
And the reason they have fewer than 100 innings of MLB experience is each time they've been given a shot they've performed poorly. And they aren't looking any better in ST this year against a combo of Major and Minor league bats. If Johnson, particularly, had looked better this year in ST I'd be thrilled -- he's been my binky for a couple years and he's coming off a tough year. But so far, so not very good. And I know from the Sam Travis discussion that ST stats don't mean anything but I think they do mean something for pitchers who have spit the bit on multiple occasions.

Edit: 2 doubles vs. the Mets today in his first 4 batters
 

uk_sox_fan

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I worry that Mookie will forever stay in Trout's shadow and be runner-up MVP again this year.
I worry that Benintendi might have some competition for ROY as so won't necessarily be a unanimous choice.
I worry that the Rotation will click so well from the outset that when Price is ready it will be difficult to decide whom to send to the bullpen.
I worry that Kimbrell, Kelly and Thornburg will click so well that there won't be room for Carson Smith when he returns.
I worry that Panda, Hanley and Moreland will hit so well that it will be hard to get them and Brock enough PT, let alone promote Travis who will be ripping the cover off the ball in AAA.
I worry that Sandy will return to form so we don't get to see enough of Vazquez and that there'll be no room for Swihart.
I worry that JBJ will again start off the season on fire and so will make us worry that he'll fall off again.
I worry that Xander's bat will be so strong that his defense will look pedestrian in comparison and he'll never be able to shake that all-hit / no-glove rep.
I worry that Pedroia will have a season that won't rank in the Top 5 of his career.
I worry that the Sox will get off to such a strong start that there'll be no excitement in the Pennant Race.
and I worry that Castillo will finally live up to his long abandoned promise and the Sox will have to put him on the roster and accept that they'll go over the cap.
 

keninten

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Nov 24, 2005
588
Tennessee
I worry that Mookie will forever stay in Trout's shadow and be runner-up MVP again this year.
I worry that Benintendi might have some competition for ROY as so won't necessarily be a unanimous choice.
I worry that the Rotation will click so well from the outset that when Price is ready it will be difficult to decide whom to send to the bullpen.
I worry that Kimbrell, Kelly and Thornburg will click so well that there won't be room for Carson Smith when he returns.
I worry that Panda, Hanley and Moreland will hit so well that it will be hard to get them and Brock enough PT, let alone promote Travis who will be ripping the cover off the ball in AAA.
I worry that Sandy will return to form so we don't get to see enough of Vazquez and that there'll be no room for Swihart.
I worry that JBJ will again start off the season on fire and so will make us worry that he'll fall off again.
I worry that Xander's bat will be so strong that his defense will look pedestrian in comparison and he'll never be able to shake that all-hit / no-glove rep.
I worry that Pedroia will have a season that won't rank in the Top 5 of his career.
I worry that the Sox will get off to such a strong start that there'll be no excitement in the Pennant Race.
and I worry that Castillo will finally live up to his long abandoned promise and the Sox will have to put him on the roster and accept that they'll go over the cap.
Sam Travis wins ROY
I worry that the Sox have a few minor injuries and won`t win 100 games
 

summerof75

New Member
Jul 14, 2005
7
Saratoga, NY
I worry that Mookie will forever stay in Trout's shadow and be runner-up MVP again this year.
I worry that Benintendi might have some competition for ROY as so won't necessarily be a unanimous choice.
I worry that the Rotation will click so well from the outset that when Price is ready it will be difficult to decide whom to send to the bullpen.
I worry that Kimbrell, Kelly and Thornburg will click so well that there won't be room for Carson Smith when he returns.
I worry that Panda, Hanley and Moreland will hit so well that it will be hard to get them and Brock enough PT, let alone promote Travis who will be ripping the cover off the ball in AAA.
I worry that Sandy will return to form so we don't get to see enough of Vazquez and that there'll be no room for Swihart.
I worry that JBJ will again start off the season on fire and so will make us worry that he'll fall off again.
I worry that Xander's bat will be so strong that his defense will look pedestrian in comparison and he'll never be able to shake that all-hit / no-glove rep.
I worry that Pedroia will have a season that won't rank in the Top 5 of his career.
I worry that the Sox will get off to such a strong start that there'll be no excitement in the Pennant Race.
and I worry that Castillo will finally live up to his long abandoned promise and the Sox will have to put him on the roster and accept that they'll go over the cap.
Now this, while I sit in the Tampa airport to return to the northeast and the 50 degree drop in temperature cheered me up and made me smile, Thank you UK!
 

timlinin8th

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Jun 6, 2009
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Now this, while I sit in the Tampa airport to return to the northeast and the 50 degree drop in temperature cheered me up and made me smile, Thank you UK!
That post, while sitting in the cold northeast, made me feel the sunrays of springtime on my face, birds started chirping, and flowers bloomed.
 

Mike F

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The two previous posts conclusively prove that ones perception is usually governed by the position of ones ass.
 

drbretto

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I'm a little worried about the offense, truth be told. It's not that it couldn't potentially BE a good to great offense, it's just that we lost a prime-like Ortiz and had some young guys ripping the ball all over the field last year. Is that lightning in a bottle or is that what we can expect moving forward? I really don't think there's enough of an argument to feel safe there.

(I still have them as the AL east favorites and hopefully the starting pitching will make up for any loss in offense)
 

pokey_reese

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2. pokey reese states that it's pretty likely Wright will contribute -- I disagree. He's a huge candidate for regression not only because of the knuckleball but also because he just wasn't as great as the ERA showed last year -- he gave up a ton of unearned runs.

It's not too hard to see a scenario where Price and EdRod battle injury and Wright returns to mediocre and the back of the rotation is in bad shape. So that's my biggest concern.
Just gonna defend myself a little here, mostly because I was replying to someone else's post at that time who was asking which of three players might reasonably contribute this year. I guess that there is some semantic wiggle room in there on what performance level that implies, but Wright seems to be healthy, which is above all the biggest factor in whether or not he "will be [a] dependable contributor." While I certainly don't think he will be an All-Star again, other than 'because knuckle ball" there isn't any particular reason to think that he won't be a reliable innings eater who can provide an ERA between 3.5 - 4. With Porcello, Sale, and Price ahead of him, and EdRo/Pom ready to provide some quality innings, Wright doesn't have to be an ace to make meaningful contributions.

Also, while his ERA over performed a bit last season (3.33), he had a FIP of 3.77, so it wasn't like he was a disaster. Sure, the unearned runs that come with the knuckle aren't great, but some of those were on the catchers (Swihart was a disaster back there a few times), and they look like an outlier compared to career norms.

edit: not sure why strike-through happened
 
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