2017 Patriots FA & Trades Thread
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Are there stats on which states "spanking is pretty commonplace as a form of child discipline" vs. other states?
Edit: response to Ralph
Edit: response to Ralph
I'm personally horrified by what he did, but my read is that most NFL teams probably wouldn't consider it a dealbreaker if the other factors (health, money, conduct since the incident) are right. If he's completely out of the league it will be due to health / contract demands.
The Patriots exist for the sole purpose of winning football games. If they think Peterson can help them win football games then they should sign him regardless of public opinion. It's as simple as that.
Some people will have emotional struggles with that and that's fine, they aren't wrong. But the Pats don't exist to be arbiters of moral disputes. They exist to play football the best that they can.
I like watching them win football games, so if in their evaluation he could help them do that, then it's fine by me.
Some people will have emotional struggles with that and that's fine, they aren't wrong. But the Pats don't exist to be arbiters of moral disputes. They exist to play football the best that they can.
I like watching them win football games, so if in their evaluation he could help them do that, then it's fine by me.
Isn't a big problem with Peterson that he's trash when running out of the shotgun? I remember reading pieces about how he had a ton of trouble adjusting to Norv Turner's more shotgun based offense. Something about him being uncomfortable running without a full head of steam.
It's not *public* opinion that would play a role; it's *their* (especially Kraft's) opinion.
How many times is Blount even on the field when they are in shotgun? He ran the ball just 39 times from that formation in 2016, compared to 238 times total as a lone setback or from the I formation. The Pats have Lewis and White, if Peterson wants to come in, he's just not going to see many snaps when they are in shotgun. Not to mention the fact that his comfort running the ball in those situations is of a lesser importance than his pass blocking/blitz pick up ability, which, admitedly, I know little about.
That Dillon is the only major "name" running back that the Patriots have added during this run should say something about how management views the position. Even if Blount were to leave, there are serviceable backs out there to find that might eventually fill that spot -- without resorting to having an interest in (Fill in the Blank Big Name Player) who happens to become available.
A truly healthy and productive Peterson wouldn't be available and/or would cost too much money. We have enough hypotheticals that are based in realistic possibilities to discuss without wasting time on those that are just star-chasing nonsense.
A truly healthy and productive Peterson wouldn't be available and/or would cost too much money. We have enough hypotheticals that are based in realistic possibilities to discuss without wasting time on those that are just star-chasing nonsense.
Even if AP is 80% of what he was that would still make him a top 5ish back. Would you consider Blount to be anywhere close to the talent level that AP is at, even now? I don't. Blount rushed for 1,100 yds and 18 TD's in this offense last year. Peterson could absolutely eclipse that. AP, with someone like Brady at QB wouldn't be consistently rushing into 8 man fronts like he was in Minnesota. It's actually kind of funny that as Pats fans we're spoiled enough to think that an all world RB, even if he's on the decline, wouldn't make a difference.
Agreed with E5, it's likely not realistic anyway.
Agreed with E5, it's likely not realistic anyway.
If anything, the overall trend in the BB years has been to find young RBs in the draft (Maroney, Vereen, Ridley, White) or as UDFAs (BJGE, Woodhead, Lewis), not to look at the free agent market. LGBT is an exception in that regard. This is widely regarded as a good draft for RBs so I wouldn't be surprised to see us address the position somewhere in the 2nd to 4th rounds, most likely adding a more traditional bigger back that can carry the load as a runner.
Originally, LGBT was traded for. The Pats got him from TB for Jeff Demps' rights (LOL) and a 7th round pick. What a steal.
Yup, you're completely right, both about him coming via trade and it being a massive steal.
Just to complete the thought, the Bucs used that seventh pick as part of a trade to move up into the sixth round ... where they picked Miami running back Mike James -- who since has bounced between the Bucs and Lions practice squads.
72 yards on 37 attempts, the vast majority of which came before his injury. And being on a one-dimensional offense has never stopped him before.
Toast.
They've added free agent RB; it's just that most of them have been forgettable. Donald Brown didn't even make the team this year, I've already forgotten Steven Jackson's tenure, Blount's return gig, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Antowain Smith going way back. I don't think Peterson is likely because of the off-field stuff and the probable cost, but it would hardly be out of left field.
EDIT: Joseph Addai, too.
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Agreed. I guess my point isn't that they never use FA but that they have more often leaned toward the draft/UDFA when looking for guys who are really going to carry a big load (most of the guys you cite were brought in as depth but weren't going to be the primary ball carrier or receiving back), particularly in the last 10 years. And given that this year's draft is widely considered to be deep at the RB position, the draft is a more likely source of an LGBT replacement than free agency.
A lot of them ended up being primary ballcarriers for a stretch at least, and of course we can't assume that what they were brought in for what was what they ended up doing. Was Blount brought in to be the guy, or just depth behind Ridley? I don't know, but he ended up being the guy.
The last couple seasons have been strange because they really haven't had a true backup for Blount. Is that just happenstance or intent? Do they like Gaffney? Do they think Lewis can be a primary ballcarrier? To what extent do they think Blount is fungible (after all, they did let him walk after '13) and to what extent do they think he's a unique talent (they haven't brought in any competition the last two years)? Apart from having a role for a receiving-type back, I have a hard time pinning the Patriots down to a particular philosophy at the position, and thus it's not clear to me what they'll do for 2017.
If you're thinking about RB, the best case scenario is to get the #12 pick for JG and draft Dalvin Cook.
Running backs don't age well. They fall off a fucking cliff. 80% of AP is great, but that's not close to a guarantee. Is 30% of AP an upgrade?
There's a few different barometers, but this article suggests 1800 carries is where the descent starts for a RB.
That number came for him in 2013. The year after he carried over 300 times in a season (another worrisome number). Since then, he's had 3 injury plagued seasons where he's ranged from slightly above average to poor.
Running backs get old quick.
I never really know what these "x%" type things mean, but AP's career Y/Att is 4.9, so 80% is 3.9 y/att, which is exactly what Blount did this season.
He's also on the field all the time so his catches per snap is even lower. My impression watching (some of) their games is he is an absolute last option as a check-down and never really worked into the passing offense outside of that.
Part of this depends on what BB thinks of the health of Dion Lewis, who is a poor man's (smaller) Peterson, and who we're considering to replace Blount (who being a UFA is probably unlikely to be worth the most to NE).
The Patriots have 1-3 reclamation projects every year, across every position group. Alan Branch worked out pretty damn well this year. No reason we wouldn't see one tried on a RB; Dillon worked out great, Fred Taylor not so much.
Not that I disagree with your premise, but if you're talking about AP, he went for 1485 yards and 11TDs on 327 carries in 2015.
Belichick, nor anyone else, should be considering Dion Lewis to replace the 300 carries that Blount gave the Pats this past season. If anything, DJ Foster (who was basically redshirted) could be being groomed to replace Lewis
Well, James White is clearly going to pick up a big chunk of those carries, even on the goal line where his pass-catching and blocking abilities are relatively less valuable. But yes, they'll have no shortage of lottery-ticket options.
I didn't watch enough Vikings games this year to have a strong opinion on Peterson's return to form (or lack thereof), but I'd welcome an informed opinion there since as you say, that's the #1 factor determining whether we're pining for the superstars of 2012, or whether he might be a realistic way to maximize value for 2017.
I didn't watch enough Vikings games this year to have a strong opinion on Peterson's return to form (or lack thereof), but I'd welcome an informed opinion there since as you say, that's the #1 factor determining whether we're pining for the superstars of 2012, or whether he might be a realistic way to maximize value for 2017.
Could you expand on how you're comparing Dion Lewis to AP? I don't see, well, any similarities to be honest.
6 quarters. He played 6 quarters last year. SSS...
I get it. RB's are probably the quickest position to collapse in football. I'm just not sure I'd be counting out Peterson just yet. Hehas a history of being the exception to the rule.
Exactly.
Yeah. Not a big fan of the percentage argument either, just didn't know how else to quantify it. You make a great point though.
We can easily play the other side here and say that if he had 37 carries for 4.2 ypc (instead of 1.94 ypc, which he did actually do) would be gauged as pretty decent but it was all of 6 quarters after a major injury. Far too much risk for the most fungible position on the field.
I saw just this in the preview window and thought for sure it was in reference to Jimmy G. I was gonna be all, "Shhhhhhhhhh! Other GMs might be lurking!"
And to really complete this thought there is a likely scenario where the Pats claim Mike James from the Lions practice squad and he is a serviceable RB for them next season because things like that always work out for the Pats
Running style, not their performance, obviously. Agility at changing direction, and acceleration. The way they break tackles, bending forward rather than sheer force, stiff-arms or delivering hits. Hesitation moves behind the line (not to a LeVeon Bell extent, but more than is typical). Back in the day, AP's biggest differentiator was his top speed - once he got going he was impossible to catch. Lewis isn't in that league, but I'd say his assets are the same.
The size and top-speed differences are major, of course, but stylistically I see a lot more similarities. Blount is of course much more of a bruiser that seeks to deliver contact, just totally opposite end of the style spectrum from a finesse back like Lewis. There's room for more than one style on the team, of course, which is why replacing Blount with Peterson on a team that already has Lewis may not be as perfect a fit for the team's skills diversity as one might have assumed. But if the money is right and Peterson's health is right, I'm sure BB would find a way to move Lewis for value.
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More than that, his carries last year were almost all prior to the injury. He has 2.5 strikes against him: age, injury, and (SSS, sure) evidence of declining performance when he was a year younger.
Not to mention the whole "kind of a royal asshole" thing.
I don't know. I'm not saying it is or should be acceptable on any level. Perhaps you are mis-reading my post.
Oh, I know you weren't talking production. I just don't see any similarity in their running style and you yourself specifically mention some pretty large differences between them - speed, power, size, etc. that I think preclude any kind of comparison.
AP has elusiveness, obviously, but he's a far more powerful back and much more north to south than Lewis, who is a scat back and relies on being shifty. I see pretty much no reason why Lewis would have to go if they picked up AP. He's perfectly capable of being a bruiser and offers more upside than a Blount. Lewis is a situational back. They can coexists quite well together imo.
Edit: for the record, not trying to be argumentative. Just not seeing what you are.
I love that the Patriots had - and I suspect that BB did/does this by design - RBs with different skill sets and no fixed labels as "starter". We all are aware of BB's penchant for giving the most snaps to whomever the game plan deems best to use against the opponent. LGBT is the bruiser, Lewis the most elusive, White the most well-rounded, and Bolden the "break glass in case of emergency"-back who meanwhile will be making big contributions on special teams.
I like what Blount brings to the team, he seems to fit in and buys into his role, and given his past there may be some combination of hesitancy by other teams to sign him and by himself to sign otherwhere. I actually expect him to be re-signed. If he isn't, I'd expect him to be replaced with another talented bruiser.
I like what Blount brings to the team, he seems to fit in and buys into his role, and given his past there may be some combination of hesitancy by other teams to sign him and by himself to sign otherwhere. I actually expect him to be re-signed. If he isn't, I'd expect him to be replaced with another talented bruiser.
Peterson as a likely better but also likely more expensive Blount replacement makes some sense if he's not too, too expensive but it looks like a very, very deep draft for running backs so it shouldn't be that hard to get some good ones. Plus, when you think about the team's skill position players, it's time to start adding some players who will contribute in 2018-2020 to ease the eventual transistion from Blount/Edelman/Amendola/Bennett and (maybe) Gronk/Lewis.
Personally I'd be surprised if Blount leaves, and I'd be surprised if Bennett is back. I think Hightower is about 50/50, wouldn't be surprised either way on that one. Sheard's value probably decreased this year - before the year I had him as a goner, now I am not so sure. I am pretty sure Ryan will be gone, unless they think that paying him market value is a smarter play than paying Butler #1 CB money next offseason.
Not sure if this is the offseason thread but does trading for Mychal Kendricks make sense to shore up linebacker depth?
Pats Pulpit had a write up on him a couple of days ago and it seems to be a pretty good thing to inquire about if it's only going to take mid to late pick. The thought out of Philly is he will be cut if he doesn't get traded.
Kendricks started his first four years before Jim Schwartz came aboard as D coordinator and made him a more situational player.
From Pats Pulpit:
Pats Pulpit had a write up on him a couple of days ago and it seems to be a pretty good thing to inquire about if it's only going to take mid to late pick. The thought out of Philly is he will be cut if he doesn't get traded.
Kendricks started his first four years before Jim Schwartz came aboard as D coordinator and made him a more situational player.
From Pats Pulpit:
Chip Kelly gave him his current contract extension:
I agree with most of this, but I still don't understand how it worked as well as it did this year. It just doesn't seem like a running back that cannot catch passes should be as successful as Blount was. No running back has scored more rushing TDs than Blount did this year for more than a decade. You have to go back to Ladanian Tomlinson. How was that possible for a guy that everyone knows is there to run when he's in the game and averages fewer than 4 yards per carry? I guess the answer is Brady. I can't think of another back like him who can be as successful as he was last year. Maybe Jonathan Stewart. Blount had more than twice as many rushing TDs than he had pass receptions. I bet it could be decades before we see another back with double digit rushing TDs for whom that will be true again.
I don't know what my point is. I guess it's that this was like some weird and wonderful and glorious perfect storm of a year for Blount that we can't expect again.
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I don't think we'll see 18 TDs again, but this is typical of how the Pats operate. Ridley had 12 TD / 6 receptions in 2012. The Patriots have pretty much always had a separate back for running and receiving. I think a lot of his high total was that Lewis wasn't healthy enough to siphon off a few rushing TD. Blount / Ridley / Bolden combined for 17 rush TDs in 2013, for instance. In the regular season this year, the Patriots had 19 rushing TDs. 18 by Blount ... and 1 by Jacoby Brissett.
I forgot about that 1200 yard year for Ridley. I still don't know how they get away with it. It's very unusual.
Do you mean having more-or-less a dedicated running back and a dedicated receiving back? The Patriots are a bit extreme, but other teams divide along these lines. Washington has done it for a while with Alfred Morris and now R. Kelley / Matt Jones. New Orleans did it for a lot of years with Sproles as the third down guy, though they use Ingram in the passing game more now. I wrote about how teams use the RB for ITP last offseason:
http://insidethepylon.com/football-science/football-statistics/2016/05/26/nfl-running-back-usage/
Blount and some other RB of similar ilk are only getting targeted as a last-resort checkdown, so the fact that he only got 8 targets on the season suggests the Patriots offense is working and Brady doesn't have to resort to his checkdowns. It should be noted that Blount was on the field for 527 snaps last year and ran the ball 299 times, so there's a significant chunk of time he's out there for passing plays.
I didn't realize it was that common. I kind of thought the trend was toward more flexibility. Blount is an extreme case, but it does look like backs getting around 1-2 targets a game and rushing over 50 yards on average per game is not as uncommon as I thought -- though still pretty uncommon relatively.
I don´t know if AP has a lot left, but I would like a real good running back to balance the attack. Brady is getting old and his effectiveness will be diminishing in the forthcoming years. I think that if they trade Garopollo a stelar running back should come via the trade or via a high draft pick
A RB name to keep an eye on could be Latavius Murray. Bigger back at 6'3 220. Caught 41 and 33 passes the last two years. UFA. Just turned 27. Would be a nice signing at the right price, but guessing the market ends up overpaying him.
Ha this is exactly what we all said going into 2016. Then Blount ran for ~1,200 yards and 18 TDs.