2017 NFL draft discussion/mock drafts

Super Nomario

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McCaffrey doesn't make much sense to me. The Pats have never prioritized having a dual-threat RB, and their preference for early-down guys seems to be bigger sledgehammer backs like Blount, Dillon, Ridley, or BJGE. McCaffrey makes more sense to me in a zone stretch scheme like Denver (where he would be a great story, too). I don't see them using a first-rounder on (ideally) a little better version of Lewis or Vereen.
 

dbn

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I agree, SN. I've seen McC to the Pats in many mocks lately, so it seems to be a popular prediction. IMO, it's a bad prediction.
 

RedOctober3829

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Leonard Fournette is not playing in LSU's bowl game to focus on training for the draft.

There is no way the Patriots are using a 1st round pick on a RB. They will be focusing on any number of more pressing needs such as OL/DL, LB, and CB.
 

jsinger121

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Leonard Fournette is not playing in LSU's bowl game to focus on training for the draft.

There is no way the Patriots are using a 1st round pick on a RB. They will be focusing on any number of more pressing needs such as OL/DL, LB, and CB.
My priorities are DL, LB, CB, OL in that order.
 

BigSoxFan

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Where is QB on that list? We have literally nothing at the position if you take away the GOAT and the league's best 2nd and 3rd string QBs.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I agree, SN. I've seen McC to the Pats in many mocks lately, so it seems to be a popular prediction. IMO, it's a bad prediction.
I would bet just about anything that the thought process involved is that he is a scrappy white guy at a skill position and everybody knows the Patriots love those dudes. With maybe one or two older NFL scribes also thinking "Just like when Belichick drafted Touchdown Tommy Vardell!"

Mock drafts are the worst.
 

SMU_Sox

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Doesn't BB draft for biggest upgrades to the roster based on who we have under contract for the next few years (also taking realistic development into account)? I apologize for not citing War Room here. So knowing (hypothetically) we need corners in two years he might take one this year so that the corner can have a year of experience before starting more. Who they will draft depends (partially at least) on who they sign in the off-season. With their valuation system I would imagine many some years would go like Jamie Collins where they have one guy rated significantly above everyone else in the roster upgrade and pure talent. But the differences become much less great as the draft goes on and with UDFA's. I don't think predicting who the Pats snag is simply a game of who fits best/who projects best for them. There aren't enough journalists who approach mock drafts the right way. How does the regime historically draft? Within the last few seasons? What's the state of their roster in the short and long term? Where is the depth in the draft relative to the positions/people they are looking at? Then you do that for each team. I'd also like to hear other players you think would be available then and who might be of interest. Inside sources help too but those aren't handy for most of us who want to do the research but don't work for ESPN. Trying to figure out the truth from rumors on twitter is not my forte.
Does anyone know a journalist, or draft analyst, or blogger, or whatever who works like that?
 

Super Nomario

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IMO they go a Front 7 guy, (pass-rusher/edge LB) then OL, then CB (assuming Butler gets signed)
The problem with both edge rusher and OT (assuming since G seems pretty set) is that it's pretty picked over by the late first. Chandler Jones is the only pure edge guy they've taken with a top-50 pick, and Solder's the only OT in that range since Light in 2001 / Klemm in 2000. LB or TE seem reasonably likely. One position I haven't seen mentioned is safety. McCourty and Chung will both be 30 by the start of next season, Harmon is a free agent, and Richards hasn't been able to work his way onto the field yet. The Patriots tend to value safeties more than other teams and this looks to be a pretty good draft class, though the Patriots often see the position differently than other teams.
 

j-man

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denver Needs OL help at least 2 OL maybe 3 + a te and DL we have no room for RB unlees its 4th round or later

denver needs
OL everywhere but C
DT/RE
TE
RB
CB if 1 sildes down because 17 is tailb last year in den
and WR
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Given the current state of roster, I don't see how WR isn't a need, especially since it seems Amendola might be meeting his end. Even if they resign Floyd, they'll still need another body. Not super high on the list, but it's on there. Edelman is or will be declining, Hogan is a great third option but only that and Mitchell has looked like a hit but can't carry the load.
 

Pxer

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I think it's pretty likely that Jimmy G is traded, and it's pretty unlikely they'd roll with just Brissett as a backup. I see another mid-round QB pick again this year.

Pat Mahomes from Texas Tech could be a fit if he falls to the 3-4 round range.
 
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leftfieldlegacy

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The problem with both edge rusher and OT (assuming since G seems pretty set) is that it's pretty picked over by the late first. Chandler Jones is the only pure edge guy they've taken with a top-50 pick, and Solder's the only OT in that range since Light in 2001 / Klemm in 2000. LB or TE seem reasonably likely. One position I haven't seen mentioned is safety. McCourty and Chung will both be 30 by the start of next season, Harmon is a free agent, and Richards hasn't been able to work his way onto the field yet. The Patriots tend to value safeties more than other teams and this looks to be a pretty good draft class, though the Patriots often see the position differently than other teams.
An advantage the Pats have in drafting OL is Dante. His ability to coach the available talent this year has been remarkable. I'd be confident that he would be able to identify under the radar mid round guys who fit his "type" saving the early round draft slots for defense or a WR.
 

NortheasternPJ

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I think it's pretty likely that Jimmy G is traded, and it's pretty unlikely they'd roll with just Brissett as a backup. I see another mid-round QB pick again this year.

Pat Mahomes from Texas Tech could be a fit if he falls to the 3-4 round range.
I'd be disappointed that if in his second year he can't be a backup. Doesn't say much for his future.
 

Pxer

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I'd be disappointed that if in his second year he can't be a backup. Doesn't say much for his future.
I think Brissett's a little bit more raw than Mallett and Garoppolo were coming out of college. Couple that with his injury and timeshare with Jimmy, and he's had less reps than would be ideal.
 

Super Nomario

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I think Brissett's a little bit more raw than Mallett and Garoppolo were coming out of college. Couple that with his injury and timeshare with Jimmy, and he's had less reps than would be ideal.
If Brissett doesn't have ideal backup experience (and he's got 2 1/2 full games of NFL experience, something no Brady backup in a decade has had), drafting a midround rookie isn't going to improve that situation at all.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I think Brissett's a little bit more raw than Mallett and Garoppolo were coming out of college. Couple that with his injury and timeshare with Jimmy, and he's had less reps than would be ideal.
Jimmy G didn't even use a playbook in college before being the lone backup. Obviously there are other considerations when it comes to rawness but going with Brissett alone wouldn't shock me.
 
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pappymojo

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I think it depends on the offer for Jimmy. If they don't get what they want they keep him for another year. They don't need to trade him.

That said, I think they trade Jimmy for a 1st and a future pick.

OL, DL, LB, CB are the priorities for the team but for the draft it really depends on what players fall to them.

Going into this year, I thought they were building their team with players on one year deals so they could maximize comp picks, but with the trade of Collins, I think that is probably less true now. I think they try to sign Hightower and Bennett and try to extend Butler. They may try to retain players like Ryan but only if the price is right. That should still leave them with some money to spend in free agency. Probably not any huge deals though. I more expect them to spend money on depth and second tier players or players who were playing out of position on their previous teams. I expect the Patriots to be fairly active in free agency as the team tries to fill any holes before the draft.

All that being said, I don't think the Patriots will draft a running back with their first pick next year.
 
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tims4wins

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Neither is Stanford's McCaffrey. This is likely to be a thing, going forward. (I have no issue with it, for the record)
Definitely a side effect of the CFP. And I agree, I have no problem with it. Hope more of it happens and the bowl season gets reduced.
 

Shelterdog

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Agreed. But there's a part of me that thinks McCaffrey would look awful good in a Pats uni.
As a fellow stanford dude I'm with you on McCaffrey. He's a faster more durable better inside running version of Vereen (and a much faster, much better running version of White); perhaps the best analogy is that he's a slighlty bigger amd very durable version of Dion Lewis. By all reports he's a very smart player and an absolute machine about off the field work although he gets so much credit for that people just forget that he's an incredibly quick guy with great balance, explosiveness and field vision. It's not really a need but man, he's be an incredible Pat for five years if you pick him up late in the first. (And James White is a year from getting a contract that's way too big).
 

edmunddantes

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After seeing several high profile players suffer serious injuries in mostly meaningless game, I'm all for college players opting out of the bowl games.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Somewhat draft related, ESPN has some projections for QB-needy teams behind the insider wall and has the Browns trading for Garoppolo:

To get Garoppolo, the Browns could offer a second-round pick and another second- or third-round pick in 2018, then draft a defender with their first pick, which could be No. 1 overall. If the bidding gets intense, the Browns could offer the Eagles' first-rounder to get their quarterback.
The Eagles 1st rounder is looking like a top 10 pick. I don't think they give that up for JG, but I have to image a 1st round pick would get the Patriots attention. Perhaps an early 2nd and a future pick gets it done.
 

Super Nomario

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Somewhat draft related, ESPN has some projections for QB-needy teams behind the insider wall and has the Browns trading for Garoppolo:

The Eagles 1st rounder is looking like a top 10 pick. I don't think they give that up for JG, but I have to image a 1st round pick would get the Patriots attention. Perhaps an early 2nd and a future pick gets it done.
I think the fairest trade for Garoppolo is like a 2017 second and a 2018 conditional pick that can range from another second (maybe a first) to a fourth depending on playing time and maybe a Pro Bowl appearance or playoff appearance or something.
 

Saints Rest

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Somewhat draft related, ESPN has some projections for QB-needy teams behind the insider wall and has the Browns trading for Garoppolo:



The Eagles 1st rounder is looking like a top 10 pick. I don't think they give that up for JG, but I have to image a 1st round pick would get the Patriots attention. Perhaps an early 2nd and a future pick gets it done.
How about Jimmy G plus the Pats 2017 1st round pick for the Eagles 1st rounder and the Brown 2018 2nd?
 
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How about Jimmy G plus the Pats 2017 1st round pick for the Eagles 1st rounder and the Brown 2018 2nd?
That sounds great to me. Just right. I'm not sure CLE does it, but they should. (Then the Pats trade down from Iggles pick, BB ultimately winds up getting back the original #32, plus the #33, and we cross our fingers.)
 

pappymojo

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If I am the Patriots, and I can't get a first round pick in return, I hang onto Jimmy G. He's still under his rookie contract for next year, so there's no financial hardship in keeping him. He knows the system and has looked good in the games he started this year. Plus, Brady is, what, 39 next year? Is anyone truly comfortable with Brissett as our number 2 QB?

If Jimmy remains with the Pats for next year, the Patriots could franchise him after the year and then trade him for a 2nd round pick.

I guess what I am saying is that there is no reason to trade him now if all you are getting back is fair value. He has value to us as a team. If some other team wants Jimmy G. they will need to give us something that we value more than what we already have.
 

Shelterdog

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If I am the Patriots, and I can't get a first round pick in return, I hang onto Jimmy G. He's still under his rookie contract for next year, so there's no financial hardship in keeping him. He knows the system and has looked good in the games he started this year. Plus, Brady is, what, 39 next year? Is anyone truly comfortable with Brissett as our number 2 QB?

If Jimmy remains with the Pats for next year, the Patriots could franchise him after the year and then trade him for a 2nd round pick.

I guess what I am saying is that there is no reason to trade him now if all you are getting back is fair value. He has value to us as a team. If some other team wants Jimmy G. they will need to give us something that we value more than what we already have.
His value to another team drops after next year, as does the Pats' leverage because no team actually believes that the Pats would keep him as a backup at 20 million+. You're unlikely to be able to trade him for as much next year as you could after this off-season (when you have leverage and when the other teams get to take advantage of one good year on his contract.)

And I'm absolutely comfortable with Brissett as our number 2.

EDIT: One other thought. Brady has played so well this year that--barring injury--it's unlikely he's displaced as the presumptive starter on opening day 2018; he'd have to be terrible in 2017 to not get another chance even if he is 41. There's very little value in keeping Jimmy G around as your brady replcaement unless you want to blow out the 2018 salary cap and have a 20 million backup.
 
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Captaincoop

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His value to another team drops after next year, as does the Pats' leverage because no team actually believes that the Pats would keep him as a backup at 20 million+. You're unlikely to be able to trade him for as much next year as you could after this off-season (when you have leverage and when the other teams get to take advantage of one good year on his contract.)

And I'm absolutely comfortable with Brissett as our number 2.

EDIT: One other thought. Brady has played so well this year that--barring injury--it's unlikely he's displaced as the presumptive starter on opening day 2018; he'd have to be terrible in 2017 to not get another chance even if he is 41. There's very little value in keeping Jimmy G around as your brady replcaement unless you want to blow out the 2018 salary cap and have a 20 million backup.
He's 39 years old. As great as he's playing, the cliff could be coming at any time. Keep Jimmy G unless some team blows you away with an offer after the season - it's really hard to find quality QBs, having one behind your 39-year-old starter is of significant value.
 

Ed Hillel

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I think they want to trade him, because I think Lombardi is a bit of a media plant and he's been hyping up Jimmy and his trade market. I'd probably set the floor for trading Jimmy as Cleveland's second round pick and aim for the Eagles pick they own as kind of a dream scenario. I think the likely suitors are Chicago, San Fran, Cleveland, and possibly Houston if Savage collapses the last two games. I would be surprised if they can't find a deal worth making. (What about Jimmy and the Pats' 2017 1st and 2018 3rd for San Fran's 2017 first? Maybe straight up for any of those teams' 2018 first rounders?)

If I'm Cleveland, I would probably trade the Eagles pick for Jimmy and then still draft another QB in round 3 or 4, given their resources.
 

pappymojo

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Does Jimmy's value to anther team truly drop after this year? Based on what? If a team is trading for him, this year or next, I think they are giving him a new contract.
 

Royal Reader

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The extra value seems to come from a combination of this QB class sucking and JG not definitely have a huge one year deal guaranteed as his starting point. Trade now, you can use the relatively low 2017 number, the ability to bring money forward and the risk of career ending injury to try to do a deal more team friendly than you can get in 18.
 

pappymojo

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Right, but that is also valuable to the Patriots with a 39 year old Brady. If another team is only willing to give up a 2nd round pick for Jimmy this year, what would they give up for Jimmy next year? A 3rd?

What would the Patriots rather have?

A
1) another year of an inexpensive Jimmy to back up Brady, 2) an option to franchise Jimmy after next year if Brady gets seriously hurt, & 3) a third round pick next year if they trade him then.

B
1) a second round pick this year.

Granted, I don't know that Jimmy will get a third in return after next year, but thats less than the Pats got for Cassell.

Me? I'm sticking with option A. The increase in draft pick value with option B isn't worth the increase of risk.
 

Royal Reader

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I don't necessarily disagree, except to say that we don't know how big the difference is going to be, both between the picks offered now and later and between Brissett with a second year in the system and Jimmy G next fall. If it is second versus third (assuming for the sake of argument the picks are the same number in each round) and Brissett is an emergency only option, then it's not worth it. If they get offered a first, or think there will be fewer QB needy teams in a year's time such that they can only get a fifth, or the coaching staff's assessment is that Brissett is as good as Garoppolo at the same stage, that changes.

The additional problem with franchise and trade is that you have to have the trade ready to go before you franchise, and the need to keep twenty million of cap space might stop you doing extensions with other key guys during the season.
 

BigSoxFan

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Without Jimmy, this team is likely 1 game worse in record right now and in an uphill climb for the top seed. He has already demonstrated his value to us. I want a first round pick for him. Second round picks can be extremely valuable but they can range anywhere from Gronk to Cyrus Jones. You just never know. Jimmy G is a starting calibre insurance policy for Brady. I'm not giving that up for a second rounder, particularly with Brady turning 40 next year. It's not fun to think about but at some point his Waterloo is coming and we'll need to be ready.
 

pappymojo

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There is certainly a lot of uncertainty involved. I believe that Jimmy G. has value to the Patriots next year, and that they are under no pressure to trade him after this year is over.

If trade partners are only offering a second round pick, I think he is probably worth keeping on hand for another year.
 

amfox1

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I'd probably set the floor for trading Jimmy as Cleveland's second round pick and aim for the Eagles pick they own as kind of a dream scenario.
I'd probably set the floor as a 2nd round pick in the top half of the round. I cannot see a top-12 pick being traded for Jimmy. All three of the main suitors have top ten overall picks, so getting their 2nd round pick would be my realistic floor and I'd work my way up from there.

I think the likely suitors are Chicago, San Fran, Cleveland, and possibly Houston if Savage collapses the last two games.
I agree on the first three. JAX could be a possibility, depending on their new coach, but I'll keep them out for now. NO and ARI have aging QBs but the cap hits for Brees and Palmer likely guarantee them one more year. Osweiler's contract is guaranteed for 2017, so HOU is probably out due to his cap hit.

(What about Jimmy and the Pats' 2017 1st and 2018 3rd for San Fran's 2017 first? Maybe straight up for any of those teams' 2018 first rounders?)

If I'm Cleveland, I would probably trade the Eagles pick for Jimmy and then still draft another QB in round 3 or 4, given their resources.
If CLE offers what is currently the #9 pick for Jimmy, I believe NE would accept it in a cocaine heartbeat. If I'm NE, I'd even throw in a lower pick (2nd or 3rd) into the deal.

CLE (currently picks 1, 9, 33, 51)
CHI (currently picks 4, 36)
SF (currently picks 2, 34)

I think it is much more realistic for CLE to offer #33 and their 3rd rounder (#51) than #9. According to the draft pick value chart, #33 (580) and #51 (390) is equal to the 16th (1000) or 17th (950) pick in the draft. That is roughly where I would peg Jimmy's value. In order to get to #9 (1350), NE might have to throw in their 2nd rounder (approx. 275).

SF could similarly offer #34 (560), #66 (260) and a 2018 3rd rounder (125-250 range) and CHI could offer #36 (540), #68 (250) and a 2018 3rd rounder.
 

nighthob

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I think it is much more realistic for CLE to offer #33 and their 3rd rounder (#51) than #9. According to the draft pick value chart, #33 (580) and #51 (390) is equal to the 16th (1000) or 17th (950) pick in the draft. That is roughly where I would peg Jimmy's value. In order to get to #9 (1350), NE might have to throw in their 2nd rounder (approx. 275).
I think he's destined for Cleveland, and I suspect that some version of that last is how it goes. Maybe Jimmy G, the Pats' #2, and the Collins pick back for #9? Which would likely get traded by Belichick for more picks anyway. But if you're the Browns it'd be a relief to have a QB at least somewhat proven on the NFL level rather than trusting to the QBs in this class.
 

RedOctober3829

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Some underclassmen draft news from Tony Pauline including 4 players from Ohio State who are expected to declare.

Raekwon McMillan of Ohio State makes three as most expect the Ohio State product to make the jump.

I’m told McMillan is likely to be joined by cornerback Gareon Conley (who publically stated he’s made no final decision) as well as the team’s other cornerback, Marshon Lattimore. To reiterate what I printed last week, despite denials most believe safety Malik Hooker will enter the draft.

http://draftanalyst.com/underclassmen-tracker-december-20th
 

amfox1

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Note to self: if NE wins Super Bowl, would have 1(32), 2(64), 3(96), 3(103)*, 4(136)**, 5(DEN), 5(184)***, 7(DET)

*Comp pick from CLE (assumes 7 of 9 of 3rd round comp picks)
**Lower of SEA/NE 4th round picks
***Comp pick (assumes 7 of 8 of 5th round comp picks)


If NE were to trade Jimmy for #33 and #51, NE would have six picks in the top 103 (32, 33, 51, 64, 96 and 103) and $55-60mm of cap room, even accounting for an expected Amendola restructure offsetting the amount of Butler's RFA tag.

QB - Brady, Brissett
RB - Lewis, White
WR - Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell, Amendola
TE - Gronkowski, Lengel/M.Williams
OL - Solder, Thuney, Andrews, Mason, Cannon, Vollmer, Jackson, Fleming
DL - Brown, Valentine
DE - Ninkovich, Flowers
LB - McClellin, Van Noy, Roberts, Freeny
CB - Butler, Rowe, C.Jones, J.Jones
S - McCourty, Chung
K/P/LS/ST - Gostkowski, Allen, Cardona, Slater, Ebner, King, Grissom

That's 39 of 53 roster spots. Assume the top six picks make the final 53 and assume Blount ($2mm), Develin ($1mm), Floyd ($1mm), Bennett (2yr, $16mm), Branch ($3mm), Long ($2.5mm) and Hightower ($15mm tag) are re-signed. Assume Vollmer ($2.5mm) retires. I would guess that most of the draft picks would be used on the defensive side (safety stands out as a major need).

Now we're at 51 of 53 roster spots, with $25-30mm in cap room remaining. Ryan could be a possible re-sign.

(Key FAs - Blount, Develin, Floyd, Bennett, Branch, Sheard, Long, Hightower, Mingo, Ryan, Harmon)
 

pappymojo

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Curt S Loew

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http://www.patspulpit.com/2016/12/28/14098546/adam-schefter-patriots-want-minimum-of-1st-and-4th-round-picks-for-qb-jimmy-garoppolo
Per Adam Schefter, the Patriots want a minimum of a 1st and a 4th for Jimmy Garoppolo, same as the Eagles got for Sam Bradford and same as what the Patriots lost for NotUnderstandingScience-gate.
I heard him on EEI this morning and he said that HE believes it should start with what Bradford got and that HE would even ask for more. There was no implication that it came from the Pats.
 

dcmissle

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Makes sense, but every market is different. JG is a wasting asset unless you think the Pats may move on from Brady, which I don't think is a credible threat. The Vikings were in an unusual situation when they made that trade, which may be regarded as an object lesson of what not to do even when that rare situation arises again.

I think teams probably overweigh first round picks, but whether they do or not they certainly very heavily weigh them.
 

gammoseditor

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Makes sense, but every market is different. JG is a wasting asset unless you think the Pats may move on from Brady, which I don't think is a credible threat. The Vikings were in an unusual situation when they made that trade, which may be regarded as an object lesson of what not to do even when that rare situation arises again.

I think teams probably overweigh first round picks, but whether they do or not they certainly very heavily weigh them.
They also overweigh QB's. We'll see.