2017 NBA MVP Discussion

Who deserves MVP?

  • Russell Westbrook

    Votes: 22 44.0%
  • James Harden

    Votes: 14 28.0%
  • Kawhi Leonard

    Votes: 7 14.0%
  • LeBron James

    Votes: 2 4.0%
  • Isaiah Thomas

    Votes: 5 10.0%
  • Other

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    50

BigSoxFan

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Didn't see a thread on this (and please delete if there is one) but figured we'll get some debate on who is worthy of the award this year given Westbrook's triple doubles. Realistically, this should be LeBron's award every year but interested to see who SoSH prefers.
 

Drocca

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Such an interesting group of players. This year due to averaging a triple double, it goes, and deservingly, to Westbrook.

But look at these players: Thomas, Westbrook, Harden

versus these players: Kawhi, Lebron

The first group is useless or ignores half the game while the second two dominate the entire game.
 

ALiveH

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Kawhi Leonard is my vote for "deserves". Have to consider his defense. The advance stats say he is +20 per 48 which is best in the group. 0.271 WS/48 also best of this group. The biggest knock against is he has taken some games off for rest. In terms of narrative, he is the only real superstar on the #2 team in the league (Manu and Parker aren't what they used to be, Aldridge isn't close to that level).

I think Westbrook will win though because his triple-double narrative is the best story. That would be the baseball equivalent of a mediocre defense 1B or 3B who wins a triple crown or hits 0.400, versus a more well-rounded player like Trout or Mookie.
 

Cellar-Door

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Harden. He's producing a ridiculous amount of offense for a good team and his defense has been more average than bad this season. I can see the case for Lebron as well. Westbrook has been good, but outside the arbitrary cutoff of triple doubles he's not really producing the same value for his team as Harden and his defense is worse.
 

slamminsammya

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I dont see how it can possibly be Leonard given that Harden and Westbrook are each carrying their team's entire load on offense. Look at that Houston roster!
 

BigSoxFan

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I dont see how it can possibly be Leonard given that Harden and Westbrook are each carrying their team's entire load on offense. Look at that Houston roster!
I think Kawhi has the best overall game but the Spurs are 6-1 with him out of the lineup. Small sample size and all that but I don't see how he is the most valuable. The Spurs would still be a solid team if you replaced him with an average player. Do the same for Harden/Westbrook and their teams are screwed.
 

slamminsammya

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But what a season! What talent there is in the league right now! Has there ever been a season with so many amazing MVP candidates? I cant believe it was only a few years ago they had to give it to D Rose because they were bored with Lebron winning (and deserving) it every year.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Kawhi Leonard is my vote for "deserves". Have to consider his defense. The advance stats say he is +20 per 48 which is best in the group. 0.271 WS/48 also best of this group. The biggest knock against is he has taken some games off for rest. In terms of narrative, he is the only real superstar on the #2 team in the league (Manu and Parker aren't what they used to be, Aldridge isn't close to that level).

I think Westbrook will win though because his triple-double narrative is the best story. That would be the baseball equivalent of a mediocre defense 1B or 3B who wins a triple crown or hits 0.400, versus a more well-rounded player like Trout or Mookie.
+1
 

Saints Rest

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Kawhi Leonard is my vote for "deserves". Have to consider his defense. The advance stats say he is +20 per 48 which is best in the group. 0.271 WS/48 also best of this group. The biggest knock against is he has taken some games off for rest. In terms of narrative, he is the only real superstar on the #2 team in the league (Manu and Parker aren't what they used to be, Aldridge isn't close to that level).

I think Westbrook will win though because his triple-double narrative is the best story. That would be the baseball equivalent of a mediocre defense 1B or 3B who wins a triple crown or hits 0.400, versus a more well-rounded player like Trout or Mookie.
Miguel Cabrera does not like this post.
 

queenb

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But what a season! What talent there is in the league right now! Has there ever been a season with so many amazing MVP candidates? I cant believe it was only a few years ago they had to give it to D Rose because they were bored with Lebron winning (and deserving) it every year.
Not sure it was any better, but the 2007-08 field was really deep.

1st: The winner, Kobe, was kind of a dud, but I think voters saw him as overdue (only MVP he'd ever win)

2nd: CP3 had a great year, bringing the Hornets out of nowhere to the 2nd seed in a stacked Western conference (so stacked that Carmelo's Nuggets won 50 games...and earned the 8-seed)

3rd: KG was the best player on the league's best team by a wide margin, and the league's best defender

4th: Lebron was probably the only guy whose stats don't look quaint in comparison to this year's leaders as he put up 30-8-7 on a team so bad Drew Gooden was 3rd in minutes

Tracy McGrady, a strong candidate any other year given that he carried the Rockets, with Yao missing half the year, to 55 wins, including a 22-game win streak, finished 8th (!) in voting.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I think you have to give it to Westbrook as the "most valuable" player to his team. The Thunder are a lottery team without him. I don't think, despite potentially averaging a triple double, that he's the best player, but I think he is most valuable.

Homer vote goes to IT for the same reason. The Celtics are maybe a 7 or 8 seed without him and are going to win 50+ games.
 

the moops

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I think you have to give it to Westbrook as the "most valuable" player to his team. The Thunder are a lottery team without him. I don't think, despite potentially averaging a triple double, that he's the best player, but I think he is most valuable.

Homer vote goes to IT for the same reason. The Celtics are maybe a 7 or 8 seed without him and are going to win 50+ games.
Where would Houston be without Harden? A Beverly, Gordon, Ariza, Anderson, Capela lineup is bad and certainly a lottery team. Maybe not as bad as an OKC team without Westbrook, but I am not sure it would be 9 games better.

-edit-
Not sure how IT is even close to being in this conversation. Asyou said, Celts are a 7 or 8 seed without him, and are going to win 50+. HOU is far worse than a 7 or 8 seed without Harden, and they are going to win 55+
 

Cellar-Door

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I think you have to give it to Westbrook as the "most valuable" player to his team. The Thunder are a lottery team without him. I don't think, despite potentially averaging a triple double, that he's the best player, but I think he is most valuable.

Homer vote goes to IT for the same reason. The Celtics are maybe a 7 or 8 seed without him and are going to win 50+ games.
How much better is HOU supporting cast? 2nd and 3rd best players were the 3rd and 4th best players on a terrible Pelicans team last year. Arguably Adams is better than anyone on the Rockets.
 

ifmanis5

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What a stacked year. Not even listed are Durant, Curry, Davis, Giannis who are legit options.

The stat leaders are also varied:
PER leaders: Westbrook, Harden, James
Usage Pct: Westbrook, Cousins, Harden
Offensive Win Shares: Harden, Thomas, Butler
Defensive Win Shares: Gobert, Draymond Green, Davis
Overall Win Shares: Harden, Gobert, Leonard
Win Shares per 48: Durant, Leonard, Harden
Box Plus/Minus: Westbrook, Harden, Paul
VORP: Westbrook, Harden, Giannis
 

Sam Ray Not

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Kawhi Leonard is my vote for "deserves." Have to consider his defense.
If we're considering his defense for this season only (which is all we care about with MVP awards) then it needs mentioning that the Spurs this year have been a fairly shocking 8.1 points per 100 possessions better defensively with Kawhi on the bench than on the floor. Kawhi is obviously a fabulous defender, so I'm sure there are all kinds of mitigating reasons for this (poor defensive floormates, other teams Kawhi-solating him in corners, etc.); and I'm pretty sure the result is not in any way "real" or predictive. But for a retrospective award like MVP and DOPY, I don't see how one can overlook the fact that Kawhi's team has been that much better defensively with him on the bench (slightly better overall: +1.4 pts per 100 possessions, but that's well below the impact of the other MVP candidates).

He's obviously not gonna get it, but if your criteria is "player who has the most positive individual impact on the floor for the best team in the league" the answer for the straight year is ... Steph Curry.

 

Sam Ray Not

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Simple raw on-off numbers...

+16.5 James
+16.1 Curry
+13.8 Westbrook
====
+4.4 Thomas
+1.8 Harden (this surprised me)
+1.4 Leonard

If we disqualify LeBron and Steph for being boring (and LeBron for his team being perceived as a fairly big disappointment), I guess that leaves ... Russ. The crazy round-number counting stats, cool game face, and Sportscenter highlight moments are all just gravy. :)
 

DannyDarwinism

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If we're considering his defense for this season only (which is all we care about with MVP awards) then it needs mentioning that the Spurs this year have been a fairly shocking 8.1 points per 100 possessions better defensively with Kawhi on the bench than on the floor. Kawhi is obviously a fabulous defender, so I'm sure there are all kinds of mitigating reasons for this (poor defensive floormates, other teams Kawhi-solating him in corners, etc.); and I'm pretty sure the result is not in any way "real" or predictive. But for a retrospective award like MVP and DOPY, I don't see how one can overlook the fact that Kawhi's team has been that much better defensively with him on the bench (slightly better overall: +1.4 pts per 100 possessions, but that's well below the impact of the other MVP candidates).
To the bolded, @bowiac has noted (I think it was on Twitter, not here) that Kawhi has been historically "unlucky" this season in terms of opponents' FT% and 3pt% while on court. These are primarily (or entirely, in the case of opponents' FT%) a function of luck, but have had a significant impact on his dRPM this year.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Where would Houston be without Harden? A Beverly, Gordon, Ariza, Anderson, Capela lineup is bad and certainly a lottery team. Maybe not as bad as an OKC team without Westbrook, but I am not sure it would be 9 games better.

-edit-
Not sure how IT is even close to being in this conversation. Asyou said, Celts are a 7 or 8 seed without him, and are going to win 50+. HOU is far worse than a 7 or 8 seed without Harden, and they are going to win 55+
He's not, that's why it's a homer vote.

Both Westbrook and Harden's supporting casts are terrible, but I think OKC's is appreciably worse. Houston at least has Gordon, Anderson, and Lou Williams (if we count him since he was acquired at the deadline) who can score a bit and shoot the three. Ariza can't create his own shot but he can shoot as well. OKC has Oladipo and then a bunch of non-shooting bigs and role players. They'd threaten the top 3 in the lottery. Houston would not.
 

Sam Ray Not

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To the bolded, @bowiac has noted (I think it was on Twitter, not here) that Kawhi has been historically "unlucky" this season in terms of opponents' FT% and 3pt% while on court. These are primarily (or entirely, in the case of opponents' FT%) a function of luck, but have had a significant impact on his dRPM this year.
I totally buy that, but if we're giving out a retrospective award — as opposed to, say, awarding a prospective, lucrative contract — is it not reasonable to factor in luck? To use a baseball analogy: I don't really think a hitter who has hit .380 or a pitcher with a 1.10 ERA should be docked MVP/ Cy Young points due to an unsustainably high/low BABIP.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Harden's supporting cast may be terrible for the average NBA player but it's specifically built around Harden so it ends up being better than it is on paper. Oddly, that makes his case for MVP stronger since the entire flow of that team relies on him to run correctly.
 

AMS25

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I think you have to give it to Westbrook as the "most valuable" player to his team. The Thunder are a lottery team without him. I don't think, despite potentially averaging a triple double, that he's the best player, but I think he is most valuable.
Russ is definitely powering the Thunder by himself. When he goes to the bench, the Thunder just can't score. It's embarrassing. Of course, every now and then Kanter or Oladipo get hot. But, a typical game for the Thunder involves the Thunder building up a modest lead with Westbrook on the floor. Westbrook sits, and the Thunder lose ground. Westbrook comes back, the Thunder forge ahead, rinse and repeat.
 

Kliq

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It has been a great season, a lot of good candidates. The best four to me are: Harden, Westbrook, LeBron and Kawhi.

LeBron and Kawhi are the best two-way players of that bunch by far, but LeBron gets points off because Harden and Westbrook are going to end up playing 7 or 8 more games than him this year and that is a big enough chunk of the season to matter. Also, Irving is a far better player than any of the #2 players on the other teams. Leonard is also going to miss more games than Harden and Westbrook, and lets face it, the Spurs could win 45 games without him. I totally believe in Pop that much.

That leaves Westbrook and Harden. Specifically both their teams rely on them so much that they can't afford to take a night off. I think Harden's supporting cast is better on paper than Westbrook's, and in practice. Both guys are slashing, attack the rim guards that pass the ball around to open shooters on the wing. Harden has way better shooting on his team; out of the top 7 players in minutes played behind Westbrook, only one player shoots over 35 percent from outside. Houston has five; Harden is kicking the ball out to deadeyes like Anderson, Ariza, Gordon and Williams while Westbrook is kicking it to Andre Roberson, Gibson, Kanter and Ilyasova.

People are attacking Westbrook for the triple-doubles being more narrative than substance, but who cares? Like driving in 120 runs, you don't win MVP because you drove in that many runs, but you also don't drive in 120 runs unless you are a really good hitter. You don't average a triple-double without being really fucking good; Westbrook is going to average 30 points and 10 assists, which is unbelievable. He is having the best rebounding season by a guard EVER. For all the talk about triple-doubles being a random and meaningless series of statistics, the Thunder have won 81 percent of their games this season when he gets a triple-double and only 33 percent when he does not.
 

Cellar-Door

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It has been a great season, a lot of good candidates. The best four to me are: Harden, Westbrook, LeBron and Kawhi.

LeBron and Kawhi are the best two-way players of that bunch by far, but LeBron gets points off because Harden and Westbrook are going to end up playing 7 or 8 more games than him this year and that is a big enough chunk of the season to matter. Also, Irving is a far better player than any of the #2 players on the other teams. Leonard is also going to miss more games than Harden and Westbrook, and lets face it, the Spurs could win 45 games without him. I totally believe in Pop that much.

That leaves Westbrook and Harden. Specifically both their teams rely on them so much that they can't afford to take a night off. I think Harden's supporting cast is better on paper than Westbrook's, and in practice. Both guys are slashing, attack the rim guards that pass the ball around to open shooters on the wing. Harden has way better shooting on his team; out of the top 7 players in minutes played behind Westbrook, only one player shoots over 35 percent from outside. Houston has five; Harden is kicking the ball out to deadeyes like Anderson, Ariza, Gordon and Williams while Westbrook is kicking it to Andre Roberson, Gibson, Kanter and Ilyasova.

People are attacking Westbrook for the triple-doubles being more narrative than substance, but who cares? Like driving in 120 runs, you don't win MVP because you drove in that many runs, but you also don't drive in 120 runs unless you are a really good hitter. You don't average a triple-double without being really fucking good; Westbrook is going to average 30 points and 10 assists, which is unbelievable. He is having the best rebounding season by a guard EVER. For all the talk about triple-doubles being a random and meaningless series of statistics, the Thunder have won 81 percent of their games this season when he gets a triple-double and only 33 percent when he does not.
Triple doubles aren't meaningless, they just aren't something that matters any more than a better game that only features 8 rebounds or 4 or whatever.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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We discussed this earlier in other threads and I think most of us agreed that "deserves" isn't really a factor. LeBron or Leonard both deserve the most consideration given that their teams are elite - not just good enough to make the playoffs - almost exclusively because of them.

However its really down to either Harden or Westbrook and given the triple double gap, its almost certainly going to be Westbrook. IT4's defensive shortcomings and Curry having a subpar shooting season plus being on the Evilest Super-team disqualify both of those guys.

I know the NBA has some savvy journalists and broadcasters covering the league. However there are more than enough of the types who like hot takes, shiny things and easy arguments to make who will not give this award the weight it deserves given the number of strong candidates.
 

bowiac

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I totally buy that, but if we're giving out a retrospective award — as opposed to, say, awarding a prospective, lucrative contract — is it not reasonable to factor in luck? To use a baseball analogy: I don't really think a hitter who has hit .380 or a pitcher with a 1.10 ERA should be docked MVP/ Cy Young points due to an unsustainably high/low BABIP.
I'm fine holding this against Kawhi for the MVP (cause why not), but to amplify on what @DannyDarwinism said - mostly what's going on with Kawhi is that opponents can't hit threes when he's off the court. They're 28.2% when he's off the court, which is super duper terrible. That seems especially unfair to hold against him. It's not even his bad luck - it's the team's good luck when he's on the bench.

Anyway, I'm on LeBron.
 

AMS25

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Well, Russell just willed the Thunder to win again. He shot the game-tying shot with seconds to go. He ended up with 57 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists. Most points ever in a triple-double.