2017 NBA Draft Thread

[LondonSox]

Monk and ball with Simmons are perfect I agree. Both stretch the floor, can pass and ball can initiate as second option (and Saric and even maybe embiid).

The sixers have options Fultz, Jackson, ball, monk, Isaac, Tatum all make sense. Ntilikina too. Smith too, but maybe a worse fit. One of those will be available for either Lakers or likely their own pick.

 

[allstonite]

Jackson is currently on ESPN (Bill Walton alert). I watched their game earlier this week too and with the small sample size he's my favorite for the Celtics. I'm only just starting to watch college this season and haven't caught much of Fultz but Jackson seems to do a lot well and has great awareness. I know his big weakness coming in was shooting but that seems to be improving. I think he'd slide in nice on the wing with Isaiah or even a smaller modern 4 in some lineups. Whereas from what I know of Fultz and Ball they might be redundant to what we have.

In the intangible/could mean nothing/my personal preference he seems very intense and into the games. Last game when he went out with 4 fouls he was standing at the bench the whole time cheering.

Also Frank Mason (Kansas' PG) looks exactly like Ezekial Elliot

That's my un-expert opinion with an extremely small sample. Looking forward to the next month to track these guys more

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Jackson is currently on ESPN (Bill Walton alert). I watched their game earlier this week too and with the small sample size he's my favorite for the Celtics. I'm only just starting to watch college this season and haven't caught much of Fultz but Jackson seems to do a lot well and has great awareness. I know his big weakness coming in was shooting but that seems to be improving. I think he'd slide in nice on the wing with Isaiah or even a smaller modern 4 in some lineups. Whereas from what I know of Fultz and Ball they might be redundant to what we have.

In the intangible/could mean nothing/my personal preference he seems very intense and into the games. Last game when he went out with 4 fouls he was standing at the bench the whole time cheering.

Also Frank Mason (Kansas' PG) looks exactly like Ezekial Elliot

That's my un-expert opinion with an extremely small sample. Looking forward to the next month to track these guys more

I'd be shocked if Ainge weren't in love with JJ. If not now, certainly after workouts where Jaylen sealed the deal.

On the other hand I could see Lonzo's crazy dad trying to handpick his team.

 

[CreedBratton]

I'd be shocked if Ainge weren't in love with JJ. If not now, certainly after workouts where Jaylen sealed the deal.

On the other hand I could see Lonzo's crazy dad trying to handpick his team.

Want no part of Ball and his insane dad. Thinks his son is as good as Curry.

Would it make sense to draft JJ and have him and Brown fight for minutes tho? I guess same could be said of Fultz.

Monk looked incredible today against Florida.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I'd be shocked if Ainge weren't in love with JJ. If not now, certainly after workouts where Jaylen sealed the deal.

On the other hand I could see Lonzo's crazy dad trying to handpick his team.

I'm sure Pappa Ball will want Lonzo on the Lakers. Best exposure and close to home.

 

[bowiac]

On point:

 

[bowiac]

Want no part of Ball and his insane dad. Thinks his son is as good as Curry.

Would it make sense to draft JJ and have him and Brown fight for minutes tho? I guess same could be said of Fultz.

The thing about athletic wings is that they can play everywhere. I have no fit concerns with Jackson. The only flag is the shooting, so he still rates 3rd for me.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Until he's drafted by some other team. I guess he could pull a Steve Francis.

 

[Marbleheader]

You pick the best talent. You can figure out what to do with the guard logjam later. You don't want to be the Trailblazers.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Man, Ball with the ball in his hands is so freaking good.

 

[Kliq]

Monta Ellis is a far better passer and rebounder than Monk and did have a decent peak. He was a starter and 4 different teams used him as such. I don't know where to find his college numbers but I'm guessing his assists and rebounding numbers were considerably higher. I'm not sure Ellis was better served off the bench. He was better served not being the number 1 option which he was for a chunk of his career.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/ellismo01.html

Monks college career blows Ellis' college career away; Ellis did nothing in college.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Man, Ball with the ball in his hands is so freaking good.

The ambidextrous pinpoint one-handed passing into the shooter's sweet spot is something to behold.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Monks college career blows Ellis' college career away; Ellis did nothing in college.

Considering he didn't even goto college, that would be hard to do. Wasn't aware he was a HS kid. Crazy he entered the draft to be selected 40th.

 

[Kliq]

Considering he didn't even goto college, that would be hard to do. Wasn't aware he was a HS kid. Crazy he entered the draft to be selected 40th.

That's the joke.

I think he was like, 130lbs coming out of HS.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

That's the joke.

I think he was like, 130lbs coming out of HS.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Never noticed how much Ellis looks like Rondo.

 

[The Social Chair]

Ball's father was interviewed on the local Los Angeles morning drive sports radio show and he sounds like a lunatic. He is starting his own marketing and sports agency company, and also will start his own shoe company if he doesn't receive an offer equivalent to Jordan brand for his son.

 

[FredCDobbs]

Went to the UT-Kansas game on Sunday. Jackson is:

1. HUGE for a wing. I mean, huge;
2. Did not see his famous intensity, probably because Kansas was never for a moment in danger of losing. Oh,that famed Erwin Center intensity!;
3. Funky hitch on his shot that causes it to release fairly low; and
4. Very advanced passer for that size who looked like he loves to move the ball. Could have attacked more, but seems like a big team guy.

 

[gammoseditor]

Ball's father was interviewed on the local Los Angeles morning drive sports radio show and he sounds like a lunatic. He is starting his own marketing and sports agency company, and also will start his own shoe company if he doesn't receive an offer equivalent to Jordan brand for his son.

His father has been brought up more than once in this thread. It's hard to imagine any scenario where you think he's the most talented guy on the board and you pass over him because of his father. Is anyone making the case to pass over him regardless of talent?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Some recent articles about JJ's defense have been published. One from the Ringer (here) discusses (and shows) his defense against Baylor, which has a 6'10" Motley and 7'0" Acuil Jr..

Also, Lakers Film Room with some analysis on Josh Jackson's defense (here).

Ringer article also had this to say:

"The key to making small ball work for Kansas is what Jackson does on defense. That’s where he made his bones on the AAU circuit. Duke freshman Jayson Tatum is one of the best one-on-one scorers in the country, and Jackson made his life miserable when the two faced off at the practices for the McDonald’s All American Game last year. One Eastern Conference executive told me that the top players in his class are scared of what Jackson can do defensively."

 

[JCizzle]

Went to the UT-Kansas game on Sunday. Jackson is:

1. HUGE for a wing. I mean, huge;
2. Did not see his famous intensity, probably because Kansas was never for a moment in danger of losing. Oh,that famed Erwin Center intensity!;
3. Funky hitch on his shot that causes it to release fairly low; and
4. Very advanced passer for that size who looked like he loves to move the ball. Could have attacked more, but seems like a big team guy.

Also doesn't seem to be the nicest guy.

http://deadspin.com/kansass-josh-jackson-charged-for-allegedly-kicking-the-1792745374

 

[nighthob]

Jackson is currently on ESPN (Bill Walton alert). I watched their game earlier this week too and with the small sample size he's my favorite for the Celtics. I'm only just starting to watch college this season and haven't caught much of Fultz but Jackson seems to do a lot well and has great awareness. I know his big weakness coming in was shooting but that seems to be improving. I think he'd slide in nice on the wing with Isaiah or even a smaller modern 4 in some lineups.

I'm fairly certain that a Horford/Crowder/Jackson/Brown/Smart defensive lineup is technically a terror cell that would leave NBA offenses in smoking ruins. Including Boston's own, quite likely. But man would it be fun to see that lineup come out for the first eight minutes of the third period and outscore the other team 9-2.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The thing about athletic wings is that they can play everywhere. I have no fit concerns with Jackson. The only flag is the shooting, so he still rates 3rd for me.

Jackson's passing and defense is at such a high level. When he gets more opportunities in the NBA open floor without zone defenses you'll really see how elite his passing/vision truly is. We've only seen glimpse due to the restrictions of the college game. He is such a complete player, with KG-like energy that I'd imagine he's a guy Ainge drools over. His fits everything about what our team is about.....a perfect culture fit.

Ball is so tempting though......lights out deep shooter, great size, with Kidd's passing/vision. Lottery night these next two years are going to be hectic.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Jackson's passing and defense is at such a high level. When he gets more opportunities in the NBA open floor without zone defenses you'll really see how elite his passing/vision truly is. We've only seen glimpse due to the restrictions of the college game. He is such a complete player, with KG-like energy that I'd imagine he's a guy Ainge drools over. His fits everything about what our team is about.....a perfect culture fit.

Ball is so tempting though......lights out deep shooter, great size, with Kidd's passing/vision. Lottery night these next two years are going to be hectic.

I have to think Fultz-Jackson are 1-2 on DA's list, although I wonder if DA dings Jackson a little for being 207 and not 220+.

As for Ball, what do people think about his defense? Haven't seen him play but the clips I have seen make his defense look awful, as in he has a Tough time staying in front of anyone and is really susceptible to change of direction. It seems like he doesn't have the foot speed or strength to guard anyone of NBA quality - although he is a great off the ball defender.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

I have to think Fultz-Jackson are 1-2 on DA's list, although I wonder if DA dings Jackson a little for being 207 and not 220+.

As for Ball, what do people think about his defense? Haven't seen him play but the clips I have seen make his defense look awful, as in he has a Tough time staying in front of anyone and is really susceptible to change of direction. It seems like he doesn't have the foot speed or strength to guard anyone of NBA quality - although he is a great off the ball defender.

I think your take is pretty accurate. He's upright with poor hip flexibility- he'll never be able to stay with quick PGs. He'll need to work on foot speed and show at least some baseline competence stopping penetration. But he really does have great defensive instincts and anticipation, which shows up in his blocks and steals numbers. Given that and his size, I think he can be a solid defender of SGs and even some SFs if he adds some muscle. I'd be much more worried about Dennis Smith Jr's defense. He certainly seems to have the lateral quickly, but he's a matador.

Lakers Film Room does a good job breaking down Lonzo's defense.

 

[rhopkins2323]

Ball is so tempting though......lights out deep shooter, great size, with Kidd's passing/vision. Lottery night these next two years are going to be hectic

I agree he is tempting. Ball and JB in transition would be fun to watch. But do you really believe in his shooting? I would hardly call him lights out. Form matters at NBA level. Not sure his mechanics translate to the distance and speed of the NBA. His FT% indicates he's likely to struggle.

Now you can say the same thing about Jackson and Fultz, but this is where NBA GMs need to figure out who they believe will be able to fix their shot.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

I'm sure he'll be able to shoot fine when he's open, but I have to wonder how that form translates coming off a screen, or dribbling to his right, or with fast and long defenders in his face. In a good offense he'll have plenty of space, but I definitely have questions.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I'd be worried about Ball's quickness, in evaluating his ceiling, but even with his quirky shot, he'll keep defenses honest in a way that, say, Ricky Rubio cannot. With his vision and passing skills, and the ability to knock down open jumpers, his floor should be starting-caliber at least, if not necessarily All-Star.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I'm sure he'll be able to shoot fine when he's open, but I have to wonder how that form translates coming off a screen, or dribbling to his right, or with fast and long defenders in his face. In a good offense he'll have plenty of space, but I definitely have questions.

I've mentioned before that Ball's shooting form is going to tilt the court because he can't shoot going right with this. In fact, going left is a problem as he does a little hop with his step-back so it slows it down.

According to HoopsMath, Ball is 10-22 for the season on 2 point jump shots, with none of them assisted. I'm sure that includes mostly floaters, which he's been trying to do. I mean even IT4 has a nice little in between game which he can use effectively when people pack the rim and take away the 3.

I think Ball is going to be a better passing, less scoring version of Jamaal Murray.

edit: someone described Ball's form as a ten year old trying to heave three pointers in the gym with his Dad, which I understand to be remarkably accurate since Ball has been trying to heave the ball to the rim since he was five. Perhaps a cautionary tale in trying to get teenage boys trying to hit the three as soon as they can dribble.

 

[gammoseditor]

Ball is probably going top 3. At worst he's a lottery pick. Calling him a cautionary tale for anything seems a bit much.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I agree he is tempting. Ball and JB in transition would be fun to watch. But do you really believe in his shooting? I would hardly call him lights out. Form matters at NBA level. Not sure his mechanics translate to the distance and speed of the NBA. His FT% indicates he's likely to struggle.

Now you can say the same thing about Jackson and Fultz, but this is where NBA GMs need to figure out who they believe will be able to fix their shot.

That's the thing....his form is excellent and consistent even if it is unorthodox. Elbow in, release from fingertips with range out beyond 25 feet. I have no concerns about his shot whatsoever......I consider it one of his strengths. If Rubio had Ball's shot and range he'd be a perennial All-Star.

Ball makes the game simple. He doesn't put himself in positions to have to create off the dribble except when it is advantageous for him to do so. He's a throwback pure PG in the Nash/Kidd mold. His BBIQ is off the charts and he's 6-6. To me, Ball is about as can't miss of a pick as there is. He's one of those special players with an NBA skillset.

 

[Cellar-Door]

That's the thing....his form is excellent and consistent even if it is unorthodox. Elbow in, release from fingertips with range out beyond 25 feet. I have no concerns about his shot whatsoever......I consider it one of his strengths. If Rubio had Ball's shot and range he'd be a perennial All-Star.

Ball makes the game simple. He doesn't put himself in positions to have to create off the dribble except when it is advantageous for him to do so. He's a throwback pure PG in the Nash/Kidd mold. His BBIQ is off the charts and he's 6-6. To me, Ball is about as can't miss of a pick as there is. He's one of those special players with an NBA skillset.

I hate this comparison which keeps getting made. Both those guys were huge stars in part because of other skills that Ball doesn't have. Kidd was an elite defender, incredibly physical and had a strong inside game both posting small guards and off the dribble. Nash was an elite off the bounce scorer, he could get his shot up off the dribble in tiny spaces.

Ball is an excellent passer, but he's not either of those guys offensively because he's not good off the bounce. He's more Rubio with a spot-up game than anything else. If he can consistently get off the 3 in the NBA, that's a quality player, but I still don't get why anyone would compare him to Nash or Kidd.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I particularly hate the Jason Kidd comparison. First of all, Kidd couldn't shoot when he came to college (.286 3P% in his freshman year; .333 overall). Ball's one ability is to shoot deep.

Second, Kidd was stronger and quicker than everyone. I mean everyone. Basically, he was Lebron before Lebron was Lebron and if Lebron was 6'3". As a freshman in college, he was already stronger than many of the opponents he was playing against (for example, see here: http://www.maxpreps.com/news/A3fx3pLmEeCkhgAcxJSkrA/mitchmash--jason-kidd-was-the-best-high-school-basketball-player-i-ever-covered.htm).

The only thing they share in common is that they have great court vision. After that, they are not very similar players.

 

[Kliq]

Form only matters if you are a shitty shooter; if you are a lights-out shooter you're form can look like shit and nobody will really care. Ball's shooting numbers are strong in college so I assume he will at least be respectable in the NBA. Although I agree that in regards to coming off screens and having to move from side-to-side is a factor that will manifest itself against better competition.

To prove my point though; who was a better shooter than this guy?

 

[Big John]

It seems to me that the issues with Ball are on the defensive side. Does he have the lateral mobility to stay in front of NBA guards? Plus his arms aren't particularly long.

 

[Bob420]

He has the same form as a righty Obama.

 

[Swedgin]

Form only matters if you are a shitty shooter; if you are a lights-out shooter you're form can look like shit and nobody will really care. Ball's shooting numbers are strong in college so I assume he will at least be respectable in the NBA. Although I agree that in regards to coming off screens and having to move from side-to-side is a factor that will manifest itself against better competition.

To prove my point though; who was a better shooter than this guy?

The concerns I've seen about his form is not just that it looks weird, it's that he won't be able to get his shot off except on a spot up.

 

[bowiac]

I'm a believer in Ball, but his free throw percentage is a real flag too. College free throw percentage is a useful predictor of NBA perimeter shooting even for guys who are good college shooters. Could be fine, but Peja for instance shot 89.5% for his career.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Another human interest story on Fultz here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2017/03/02/if-markelle-fultz-is-one-and-done-what-a-long-eventful-one-it-was/?utm_term=.dddbea6016a8

Interesting tat he's rocking.

 

[CreedBratton]

The concerns I've seen about his form is not just that it looks weird, it's that he won't be able to get his shot off except on a spot up.

I think he will struggle getting his shot off, but I also never understood how Shawn Marion ever got a shot off/to go in so

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

IT4 thinks Fultz will be #1 and he won't have a problem playing with him: http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2017/03/2017_nba_draft_news_boston_cel.html.

IT4 and Fultz have played together and are in semi-regular contact.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I love how all these articles just assume that the Celtics are going to land a player that they only have a 25% chance of getting.

 

[rhopkins2323]

Form only matters if you are a shitty shooter; if you are a lights-out shooter you're form can look like shit and nobody will really care. Ball's shooting numbers are strong in college so I assume he will at least be respectable in the NBA. Although I agree that in regards to coming off screens and having to move from side-to-side is a factor that will manifest itself against better competition.

To prove my point though; who was a better shooter than this guy?

To be honest his form is pretty good imo. While not picture perfect, there are reasons this works. His release elbow is pointing right at the rim. He keeps an "L" shape with his arm/forearm. He gets under the ball and snaps up and through directly at the rim. His guide hand has no influence on ball. All solid mechanics.

Ball on the other hand, shoots from the other side of his body. He does have a decent snap/follow through, but the rest is so off. But it's worked for him up to this point against college players. If I were DA, it would be a concern as shooting quickly and off the dribble are necessary in the NBA.....if you're trying to develop an all-star

 

[Bob420]

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Not exactly a shocker, but Dennis Smith Jr. declares for the draft after NC State gets bounced from the ACC tourney. He capped a rough month with 7 points off of 12 shots, 8 boards, 3 assists with 4 turnovers in the loss to Clemson. As was the case too many times this year, the opposing PG (Shelton Mitchell) had his season-best game. NBA spacing should open things up for him as a slasher, but with his poor defense and inconsistency, his future is going to depend in large part on his jump shot. He finishes the season at 35.9% from 3 and 71.5% from the line.

Apparently Ainge was at the game today.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

So now Josh Jackson is suspended for tomorrow night's game for hitting a parked car and leaving the scene. Feels like this is more of a make-up suspension for the other incident when he vandalized his teammates ex-girlfriend's car.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Just stay away from cars dude.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Fultz has shots in his repertoire that are unguardable, like this one:

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I love how all these articles just assume that the Celtics are going to land a player that they only have a 25% chance of getting.

The guy we have a 25% chance of getting would seemingly be Fultz. The most likely individual slot we pick at is 4th at 37% or so. Discussions of any of the Top-4 are legit conversation pieces imo. My concern is if we pick 4th and cannot land any of the Top-3......after that I see a significant dropoff in the certainty of the prospects.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Right now I've got Fultz-Jackson-Ball in that order. It's a much different draft for me this year in that I'm having trouble falling in love with value guys like I did last year in LeVert, Zizic, Zubac, Siakam, and Dejounte Murray who I'd have drafted 10+ spots higher in some cases. Only 6-6 combo guard PJ Dozier of South Carolina fits into this group as my binkie. I also don't hate anyone as overrated as I did Bender last year going really high. It was such a natural and confident feeling I had projecting each of these players. The closest I've come are not liking the UK guards Monk and Fox for where they will likely be picked, still hate Ivan Rabb as a pro, don't like Kennard, hate Harry Giles, while viewing Justin Jackson of UNC and TJ Leaf as a value guys but they have both shot up some boards I'm watching.

I think Josh Hart is an NBA player in the late 1st/early 2nd who could be next years Malcolm Brogdon. One kid to keep an eye of is Creighton's Marcus Foster, a thick 6-3 combo guard who can flat out ball and is simply fearless. If I had to pick one guy to be an Isaiah Thomas as a 60th pick this would be the guy, he knows how to put the ball in the basket and has an underrated floor game. I can't complete a post without commenting on FSU's Baconator.......he's interesting to me late 1st/early 2nd as a Keith Bogans-type of wing if he can defend at this level so he could stick. I don't feel his ceiling is very high due to feeling he can't create his own shot against better athletes.....kinda reminds me of Marcus Smart at OkState where he bulldozed his way past smaller weaker players which he won't be able to do in the NBA while his shot and mechanics are wildly inconsistent.

I always have a good feel for certain foreign guys who stick out in both positive and negative ways........I don't yet see that Porzingis guy I drool over or the Hezonja kid where I wonder what the hell the scouts are seeing. Generally speaking I'm bulling on foreign bigs and bearish on the guards which has played out pretty well over the years so there's that to go by if nothing else.

One caveat......I'd say that a minimum of 33% of prospect "picks" panning out or not have to do with the organization that drafts them. How would Okafor, Noel, or Cauley-Stein have developed in our system or the Spurs? Was Dedmon really a better prospect than Noel or WCS? Would Brogdon or Jaylen look this good in Sacramento? The fit is crucial and we simply don't know where these kids are going to land. Right now it's guestimates on how their games translate to the pros and the role they will be asked to play.