2017 College Football Game Thread - Week 13

[Ale Xander]

It's Landgrabber or Wiscy, only, that Alabama is relying upon to lose. They'll use the ticket sales argument with TCU (if they win) and the lack of quality wins with 1 loss Wiscy and a 2nd loss for OSU/Landgrabber (if OSU wins)

Miami is getting in over Bama if they win. They have history/cachet. Same obviously with Georgia and Auburn.

What snowmany said, with the exception of a possible USC sneak-in if they blow out Stanford and OSU wins narrowly.

I've love to see UCF sneak in but I don't see it. Committee is too realpolitikian

 

[Ale Xander]

Basically this is it
Go down until you reach 4

1) Undefeated P5 conference champ (Wiscy if win)
2) 1 loss P5 conference champ with cachet (Clemson/Miami, Georgia, landgrabbber)
3) 2 loss SEC or B1G conference champ with incredible SOS (Auburn) and at least some cachet
4) 1 loss P5 non-conference champ with cachet (Bama)
5) 1 loss P5 conference champ without cachet (none)
6) 2 loss P5 conference champ with cachet (OSU, USC)
7) 2 loss P5 conference champ without cachet (TCU if win)
8) undefeated non-P5 conference champ (UCF)

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

I think you can slot this in somewhere in 6, 7, 8 range.
1 loss P5 non-conference champ without cachet (Wisky if loss)

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

Do you guys really think the selection committee is looking at "cachet" as a criteria? They're certainly not supposed to - that's how bowls work, not the playoff. Anyway, I think snowmanny had it correct in this post:

ACC Champ
SEC Champ
If Wisconsin and Oklahoma win they are both in.
If one of Wisconsin or Oklahoma lose, Alabama replaces them.
If both Wisconsin and Oklahoma lose, Alabama and Ohio State are in.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Do you guys really think the selection committee is looking at "cachet" as a criteria? They're certainly not supposed to - that's how bowls work, not the playoff. Anyway, I think snowmanny had it correct in this post:

They look at "cachet" in terms of ticket sales and TV ratings. If it came down to a choice between Miami and somebody like Alabama or Ohio State Miami will lose that battle every time.

 

[tims4wins]

538 has a pretty good predictor tool

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/?addata=espn:frontpage

It basically matches what snowmanny says, but it has OSU and Alabama as very very close in the even of an OSU win.

 

[Royal Reader]

Basically this is it
Go down until you reach 4

1) Undefeated P5 conference champ (Wiscy if win)
2) 1 loss P5 conference champ with cachet (Clemson/Miami, Georgia, landgrabbber)
3) 2 loss SEC or B1G conference champ with incredible SOS (Auburn) and at least some cachet
4) 1 loss P5 non-conference champ with cachet (Bama)
5) 1 loss P5 conference champ without cachet (none)
6) 2 loss P5 conference champ with cachet (OSU, USC)
7) 2 loss P5 conference champ without cachet (TCU if win)
8) undefeated non-P5 conference champ (UCF)

Four and five need to be flipped, I think, maybe even put five to three - though moot for this season as no-one's in category five. If, say, Washington State had won the P12 with one loss, I still think they're in over any team with two losses or one loss and no conference title. There seems to be the possibility of the committee valuing no rematches in a way that doesn't neatly sync up with that list; Bama seems more likely in if Georgia is the SEC champion than if Auburn is. I don't think the Tide deserve it, but then I look how freaking noncompetitive Ohio State's two losses and USC's loss at Notre Dame were and gulp. The Ohio State precedent seems to rule out Ohio State, USC or TCU jumping Alabama (if one fewer loss and all around better resume trumps conference title when it's the same conference and there's a head to head in favor of the conference champion, it should trump it between conferences) - but if they rank Auburn ahead of Alabama given an AU SEC championship (correctly) that's going to screw with that precedent. I don't think the Tide deserve in, but it's TCU which I'd put in instead (they only have one noncompetitive loss, it was on the road, and it would be avenged on a neutral field in the event that they finished with two losses).

 

[coremiller]

I don't think you can compare 2017 Alabama to 2016 Ohio St, because Ohio St last year had a much stronger resume. Ohio State's one loss was on the road by 3 points to #5 Penn St on a fluky blocked field goal return, and they had wins @Oklahoma (#7), @Wisconsin (#8), and home against Michigan(#6). Alabama doesn't have even one win over a top-10 team, let alone three with two on the road, and their loss last week wasn't fluky in any way.

 

[PayrodsFirstClutchHit]

So, maybe:

ACC Champ
SEC Champ
If Wisconsin and Oklahoma win they are both in.
If one of Wisconsin or Oklahoma lose, Alabama replaces them.
If both Wisconsin and Oklahoma lose, Alabama and Ohio State are in.

The problem with this scenario is that if Wisconsin were to lose, it would be at the hands of Ohio State. If Ohio State impresses with that win, they may gain more favor with committee over an idle Alabama team which did not impress with their last game.

 

[tims4wins]

The problem with this scenario is that if Wisconsin were to lose, it would be at the hands of Ohio State. If Ohio State impresses with that win, they may gain more favor with committee over an idle Alabama team which did not impress with their last game.

Exactly. If OSU wins, and there is a debate between OSU and Bama, it will be very, very close IMO

 

[Gdiguy]

This may be an unpopular position, but - I think it's a shame UCF has zero chance of getting into the playoffs, and even though they'd probably get killed I'd rather see them than Alabama.

There's no way they're one of the top 4 teams in terms of actual ranking, but in terms of being in the 'college football playoff' I've really come around to the side that losing your conference should be disqualifying. Admittedly I'm more of a sucker for March Madness-style Cinderella 5 seed stories, but I do think it's a shame that there's effectively no way for a non-top 5 conference school to randomly put together a big year and sniff the playoffs (as it requires years of planning ahead and scheduling OOC games to build a good enough schedule to even be considered)

 

[Awesome Fossum]

I agree. I hate that they're being treated the same as Western Michigan last year, as the American is a much, much better conference than the MAC. It's also obvious, in my opinion, that the committee is screwing with other team's rankings to support the end results they want. USF is kept out to prevent UCF from being able to claim multiple victories over ranked teams, but Fresno is ranked to give Alabama that extra boost. It's lame.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

This is why they need to move to an 8-team playoff made up of the P5 conference winners, the highest-ranked non-P5 team, and then the two remaining highest-ranked teams.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

This is why they need to move to an 8-team playoff made up of the P5 conference winners, the highest-ranked non-P5 team, and then the two remaining highest-ranked teams.

Couldn’t agree more. It won’t end the debates. There will still be teams that some people view as deserving that get left out. Like if Wisconsin and Auburn both lose this Saturday then would they both make the top 8 over a team like USC?

But it’s a matter of degree, right? Debating if two teams are the 8th or 9th best is different then debating if two teams are 4th or 5th best. Won’t solve all the problems but it’ll be more entertaining, more fair and get closer to the proverbial “getting it right” that everyone wants

 

[OurF'ingCity]

Yeah, I mean people still get pissy about getting snubbed from the NCAA Basketball tourney and that's a 68-team field now.

I guess one potential pitfall would be if there was no clear top non-P5 team, but you could get around that by requiring the non-P5 team to win its conference or be ranked at least 15 or better or something, with another "wild card" team filling in the non-P5 slot in those circumstances.

 

[The Needler]

I guess one potential pitfall would be if there was no clear top non-P5 team, but you could get around that by requiring the non-P5 team to win its conference or be ranked at least 15 or better or something, with another "wild card" team filling in the non-P5 slot in those circumstances.

There will always be something to complain about. You'll have the committee screwing over a team like UCF by ranking them 16th. And you'll have a 3 or 4-loss P5 CG winner getting in over several better teams just because their league has a big TV contract and we've decided it should get an entrant.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I've always been an advocate of a 16-team playoff.
--Reduce the OOC games by one to end the season on Thanksgiving weekend.
--Each Power 5 conference gets an automatic bid and there's 1 automatic bid set aside for the highest Group of 5 conference winner. These 6 teams are guaranteed home games for the first round.
--The committee will then select 10 at-large teams to fill out the bracket.
--The round of 16 takes and quarterfinals take place the first 2 weekends of December on campus sites. That will make up for the loss of a money game in the regular season for the home teams plus the added TV revenue for more playoff games would trickle down to all teams in P5 conferences to help offset that revenue.
--Take a break for finals.
--The semifinals are New Year's Day at 2 bowl sites and the championship game is the following week at another bowl site.

This will never happen, but it's fun to dream.

 

[SoxJox]

Oh, I don't know. That seems like a fairly plausible end game. Perhaps we'll get there, as Sager and Evans would have said, "in the year 2025, if man is still alive." Just kidding. I do believe it is reachable in the relatively near term.

 

[Awesome Fossum]

FCS used to do 16 teams and it was awesome. If we're fantasy booking, I'd give a spot to each of the G5 conference winners, which has the feature of giving the P5 conference winners a pseudo bye. So if the season ended today, you'd have something like:

16 Florida Atlantic @ 1 Clemson
8 Miami @ 9 Ohio State

12 UCF @ 5 USC
13 Fresno @ 4 Wisconsin

14 Toledo @ 3 Oklahoma
11 TCU @ 6 Alabama

10 Penn State @ 7 Georgia
15 Troy @ 2 Auburn

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

I'd give a spot to each of the G5 conference winners

Hard pass. Nobody wants to watch five games in which the P5 conference winners have pseudo byes.

I think eight teams is the right number - you need to strike a balance between keeping the regular season meaningful and not excluding any teams which might legitimately deserve to be called the best team in the country at the end of a playoff. I generally like the idea of giving auto-bids to the five conference winners plus the best G5 team, but I'd perhaps also include a rider to say that you have to be in the Top 16 or the Top 20 of the final rankings to get that bid; I don't think anyone wants to see a two-loss G5 or four-loss P5 team in the playoffs at the expense of a more deserving team just because it lucked out and was the best of a rotten bunch.

 

[Awesome Fossum]

Edit: Nevermind

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

You’ve got 6 of the top 8 playing each other tomorrow. We don’t need to reshuffle the top 8 and see them start over in a month. Leave it at 4, if Auburn loses tomorrow, they are likely a top 8 team on Sunday with 3 losses. We don’t need to take it to 8.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

I don’t like USC.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

Sigh. I think Shaw is a great recruiter, and gets his team up for games... and jesus christ his playcalling is so, so, so bad. Just... awful.

 

[InstaFace]

You didn't like the two straight dives into the line, where they failed to block the DE on the weak side and allowed a McGinest?

I did think the call to go for it from the 1/2 yard line was well made, even if he'll get blamed for that decision if they lose.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

I liked going for it. But the play call was just so bad.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

Jesus we look so fucking slapdick

 

[Infield Infidel]

what a drive to get Stanford back in this

 

[Old Fart Tree]

Ok. That was cool.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

Thought Stanford got away w a push off on 3rd and 11 but ok

 

[InstaFace]

Smith jumped out of his socks to get that one. Moss-ian.

 

[InstaFace]

Do they have to onside now? 2:09 left, 1 timeout for stanford.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Do they have to onside now? 2:09 left, 1 timeout for stanford.

Yes

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I mean, no

 

[Old Fart Tree]

They did. Oh well.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

I’ll give the Trojans this: ballsy play call on 4th.

 

[dcmissle]

Good game. Too many flags.

 

[Ale Xander]

Not decisive enough for USC to jump OSU and Wisconsin winner