I'd agree with this. The part I disagree with, is people wanting to trade a starter away for this injury insurance. That seems bonkers to me.
2017 Celtics Offseason: News and General Discussion
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The balancing the roster talk is interesting. The problem I see with IT is that the unknown also plays into "what if he's healthy" If you go out an acquire a ballhandler now you've marginalized a roster spot. Crowder is going to get 25-30 minute per game with the team as constructed. A primary ball handler will get about 10 if IT is healthy and Smart is still on the team and Stevens likes him. But offense really isn't the problem, the problem is defense, so I can of course see an argument for bringing in another guy who can guard the 1 for roster balance. But, in that case, I'm guessing Detroit would have happily taken Crowder instead of Bradley so it seems like the Celtics don't agree with this.
I am intrigued by not Chad's idea of greasing the Irving -> Phoenix wheels by including Crowder for a pick. I'm not sure the Celtics want to put that much weight on Brown and Tatum but it certainly feasible. Crowder plus a Celtics pick to get back Phoenix's 1st gets the Celtics another pick *and* helps the chances of maximizing ping pong balls for BKN and LAL. On the other hand, I don't see the Celtics reducing their own chances just to help save the Cavs and make them that much better. I actually think Bledsoe and Crowder makes the Cavs a better team (at least through the regular season and EC) than a happy Irving, never mind disgruntled one.
I am intrigued by not Chad's idea of greasing the Irving -> Phoenix wheels by including Crowder for a pick. I'm not sure the Celtics want to put that much weight on Brown and Tatum but it certainly feasible. Crowder plus a Celtics pick to get back Phoenix's 1st gets the Celtics another pick *and* helps the chances of maximizing ping pong balls for BKN and LAL. On the other hand, I don't see the Celtics reducing their own chances just to help save the Cavs and make them that much better. I actually think Bledsoe and Crowder makes the Cavs a better team (at least through the regular season and EC) than a happy Irving, never mind disgruntled one.
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It's not injury insurance that would otherwise never play. It's a good player at a position with less depth than wing.
Anyone who is as good as Crowder currently is would be getting 25-30 minutes a game next year no matter what. That hypothetical player would instantly be the 2nd best ball handler or 2nd best big on the team (better than smart/rozier/zizic/baynes etc.)
As far as a potential swap for a ball handler I agree only a subset of ball handlers would work.
I wouldn't trade crowder for a small or poor defensive guard that you wouldn't be able to pair with IT at all (unless the team really is convinced his hip is totally shot). But I doubt that's the case.
I can see the theoretical argument but the C's are over the cap now, so who are these guys that are available for trade that make the same salary as Crowder and would be the second best anything on the Celtics?
Not if it's a point guard. That guy would for sure play less than Crowder.
I also think the wing depth thing is false. I think a 9 man rotation will have two point guards and five wings(maybe 4 and a half wings).
Removing Crowder to add to the ball handlers will leave you a little short at wing, and way over at ball-handler in my opinion.
Even removing Crowder for a big I think is worse because it forces Morris to play more at wing than big.
I look at their nine man rotation now as
Bigs Horford Baynes(unless Zizic can beat him out at some point)
Big/Wing Morris
Wings Hayward Crowder Tatum Brown
Points IT Smart
Depth Bigs Zizic Theis
Depth Wings Ojeyele Nader Yabusele
Depth Point Rozier Larkin
I would much rather have Crowder in my rotation, and have Rozier as my emergency backup if IT can't play, than have a better insurance policy on IT but have to cover for Crowders 30 minutes with the other wings.
If you can trade Crowder for a big that's much better than Baynes, OK I guess. But I don't think that solves a problem. It's just shuffling deck chairs and you've just decided to play a little bigger than currently setup. Not necessarily better or worse, just bigger.
That's where things get tricky
Honestly I don't think the team is desperate to move Crowder or needs to move him for that reason. A sensible trade would require another team valuing Crowder highly and have the right semi-redundant pieces on its roster. There may be nothing out there that makes sense.
But I don't think whatever value you assign to Crowder is being used as efficiently as it could be on this Celtics team. Sometimes you just have to accept that though, there are worse problems to have.
Jae Crowder is making little difference to how fun this team will be this year or how far they go. He's a good player on a great contract that likely has more value to another team. He's not a difference maker. I don't really see how that's up for debate.
What they can or should get is an entirely different conversation, but If you honestly think moving him costs them anything - that he's some kind of difference maker - then I guess we're watching two different leagues or we value losing 4-2 as opposed to 4-1/4-0 in the ECC quite differently.
Re: Celtic ballhandlers -- if Thomas is hobbled, Smart is a decent playmaker but would probably be vulnerable to a press. Rozier is a great ballhandler, but makes plays only for himself. Shane Larkin, who can both handle the ball and dish it off, will step into the limelight.
On the other hand, point guards aren't the only ones who handle the ball. Hayward and Horford both handle the ball better than Avery Bradley. Celtic handles got better when Avery was shipped out of town.
If Thomas fades, Smart is vulnerable to the press, Rozier can't get the team into the offense, and Larkin is just Eurohype, then Ainge can probably cash Crowder in for a Rent-a-Teague. I would hate to see Crowder, the team's most fungible asset, spent before his time.
On the other hand, point guards aren't the only ones who handle the ball. Hayward and Horford both handle the ball better than Avery Bradley. Celtic handles got better when Avery was shipped out of town.
If Thomas fades, Smart is vulnerable to the press, Rozier can't get the team into the offense, and Larkin is just Eurohype, then Ainge can probably cash Crowder in for a Rent-a-Teague. I would hate to see Crowder, the team's most fungible asset, spent before his time.
I agree a lot with Sprowl's last sentence. By Feb 1, we (and more importantly DA) will know a lot more about this team and what else it might need. That will be the best time to see if Crowder can help pay for that improvement
He's not a "difference maker", he's the 4th best player on a really good team. If you trade him, you won't be getting a "difference maker" back either. If you're lucky, you'll get back a different 4th best player on your team. More likely, you'll be gambling on a young player/pick that you hope eventually, can become the 4th best player on a really good team to erode the really good team you already have.
Why would you think he has more value to another team? If, as you say, he's not a difference maker then no team worse than the Celtics should value him highly right? After all, he might only help a team lose 4-1 rather than 4-0 in the second round. So he could only possibly be more valuable to the teams better than the Celtics. So maybe Golden State, San Antonio, Houston, and Cleveland?
What have those teams got that they'll give you for Crowder that will make you much better off longterm? If Houston wants to give you Clint Capela for him, sure go for it. I don't see that happening though. Then what, you love Dejounte Murray?
There pretty much isn't an equivalently valuable player to Crowder at a different position who isn't either a young player on a rookie deal (and unavailable because those guys have star potential) or makes a lot more money than Crowder, making a trade impractical because the Celtics would have to give up extra talent to fill salary, meaning you need a better player, not an equivalent one coming back.
Guys who bring similar value to Crowder at the 5 are players like Turner, Marc Gasol, and Whiteside. At the 1, it's the likes of Rubio and Beverly. Of those, only Beverly has a similar contract. That's why this conversation is happening in hypotheticals. That affordable above average big that could be had for Crowder simply doesn't exist.
Guys who bring similar value to Crowder at the 5 are players like Turner, Marc Gasol, and Whiteside. At the 1, it's the likes of Rubio and Beverly. Of those, only Beverly has a similar contract. That's why this conversation is happening in hypotheticals. That affordable above average big that could be had for Crowder simply doesn't exist.
Let's look back to 2008 when the offense ran though Pierce and KG. That version of Rondo was only needed to bring the ball over half court against any pressure, get it to Pierce on the wing or KG at the high elbow then go run and hide on the weak side. Ainge utilized Eddie House at the 2nd unit guard, the same Eddie House who had been cut by 6 teams over the prior 3-4 years, to fill this same role until Cassell became available. Ainge is setting Brad up with a similar line to run the offense through Pierce (in Hayward) and KG (in Horford) so even if Isaiah was out of the lineup the role Rondo filled in those Big Three early years is fully capable of being filled by Smart and Rozier as their primary deficiencies as PG's are getting to their spot with the ball to initiate the offense......which would be hidden by the offense going through Hayward and Horford. I'm not worried about losing Isaiah at all as his offensive role is also going to change significantly now that Hayward is here.....but his defensive limitations don't go away. I guess my point is that Hayward not only reduces Crowder's impact on the team but also Isaiah's as the ball will be in his hands less than it has been since he's been here.
If I recall correctly, Rondo spent a ton of time sitting in the corner where he was often pretty worthless. Smart, on the other hand, is practically a knockdown shooter from there (certainly by his standards). There are worse options for sure.
Marcus shot around 43% from both corners (42% and 44%). That is more than respectable.
https://labs.statmuse.com/questions/28fde82f-74fd-4eb6-955b-37c992fe7ab8
https://labs.statmuse.com/questions/28fde82f-74fd-4eb6-955b-37c992fe7ab8
I have mentioned this before maybe in this thread or somewhere else, but Isaiah does not need the ball in his hands to be effective. In fact, a huge amount of the action involving IT had him off the ball. To use an analogy, I see IT and Hayward being more in the Curry Durant positive interference mold rather than the Carmelo AI both need the ball in their hands to do anything good mold. I think the Hayward IT synergy will be very strong.
It is very good! I was shocked when I saw those numbers, and they are on a high number of shots too. Its been said a million times but a Marcus Smart who was even a slightly below average 3 point shooter is a great player.
On offense, it is very very easy to see Hayward just taking Bradley's minutes as his playmaking is going to do nothing but help and be an improvement over AB. As noted elsewhere, IT and Crowder both work really well off the ball. The real question is defense, as always. It is going to be a bit more difficult to hide IT on defense against specifically of interest the Wizards and Raptors. I don't think Hayward can stay with Wall or Lowry - but even these situations seem to be more built toward subbing in Smart for IT than finding a replacement for Crowder.
I agree with your general point, but I'd value Turner and Gasol well above Crowder. Both would be great fits and upgrades to our front court. Whiteside has good value but I'm not sure he's a good fit.
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In part to protect him defensively, I'd like to see IT in the role of "starter who also plays with the bench guys". I thought Stevens decision to lift IT early in the third quarter of Wizards game 7 was decisive. The Celtics fought back on the strength of defense in a game that was starting to get away from them and then IT came back when the Wizards finally subbed out their starters. With Hayward on board to handle more of the offensive load, they can pick and choose ITs spots more even as he remains a starter.
I strongly disagree with this. Isaiah brings creating shots against the clock and scoring the ball to the table as his greatest strength.....that strength is reduced when Hayward has the ball in his hands in the end of clock possessions and he is the one shooting the ball.
I too hope this is how he is utilized, and was thinking the same all the way through the playoffs. Also, I want to see him under 30 MPG during the regular season (and take as much rehab as he needs even if he misses a good chunk of games at the start of the season). Have to hopefully get him through the whole playoff run this time. If it all plays out this way a tertiary benefit is he won't be worth a max deal in the open market.
I don't think you're wrong here, but even if we consider Hayward as taking AB's minutes, there's significantly more flexibility in who else is on the court for those minutes. With AB, you really needed three bigger guys (true 3/4/5s). With Hayward, you can absolutely have him out there with, say, Smart+IT. And that helps a lot with the defensive scenarios you're talking about, since Smart can defend the Wall/Lowry types, with IT defending off the ball and Hayward on a bigger guy.
I don't agree with any assertion here. Isaiahs greatest strength is not shooting "against the clock", if by that you mean late in the shot clock, nor is that somehow reduced by replacing Bradley with Hayward. The following is such a basic principle of basketball I am surprised I need to say it as you clearly watch a lot of basketball, but if one guy on the court gets a lot of attention from the defense he doesn't need to be shooting or even touching the ball to make a positive impact.
Some general Hayward stuff...
Per 36 minutes last season: 22.9 pts on .595 ts / 5.6 reb / 3.6 ast / 2.0 tov
NBA players last season averaging ≥ 22 pts / 5.5 reb / 3.5 ast per 36 on ≥ .590 true shooting:
Durant
James
Leonard
Harden
Antetokounmpo
Hayward
Pretty good company. Yeah, Hayward's at or near the bottom of that group in most major categories, but he's also the best of the bunch in turnover rate and foul rate.
Added bonus: he put up nearly his exact regular season numbers in the playoff gauntlet (11 games total, 411 minutes), against a solid defense in LAC and an elite one in GSW: 23.2 pts / 5.9 reb / 3.2 ast / 2.1 tov on .598 ts. You could see that Curry, KD and co. had mad respect for him after the GSW series.
To me he's the third best player in the East, after LeBron and Giannis, yet (outside of Celtics and Jazz sites) still pretty criminally underrated. I'm stoked to see him step into the limelight a bit more this season.
Per 36 minutes last season: 22.9 pts on .595 ts / 5.6 reb / 3.6 ast / 2.0 tov
NBA players last season averaging ≥ 22 pts / 5.5 reb / 3.5 ast per 36 on ≥ .590 true shooting:
Durant
James
Leonard
Harden
Antetokounmpo
Hayward
Pretty good company. Yeah, Hayward's at or near the bottom of that group in most major categories, but he's also the best of the bunch in turnover rate and foul rate.
Added bonus: he put up nearly his exact regular season numbers in the playoff gauntlet (11 games total, 411 minutes), against a solid defense in LAC and an elite one in GSW: 23.2 pts / 5.9 reb / 3.2 ast / 2.1 tov on .598 ts. You could see that Curry, KD and co. had mad respect for him after the GSW series.
To me he's the third best player in the East, after LeBron and Giannis, yet (outside of Celtics and Jazz sites) still pretty criminally underrated. I'm stoked to see him step into the limelight a bit more this season.
Speaking of Haywardcleaver,
Another week of workouts in the books. Was great having @SemiOjeleye join @gordonhayward workouts for the week. @celtics #improveeveryday
Semi's gotta be a monster in the weight room (apparently he won two consecutive awards for work in the weight room before he left Duke - either called the "Iron Devil" award or "the Belt").
Another week of workouts in the books. Was great having @SemiOjeleye join @gordonhayward workouts for the week. @celtics #improveeveryday
Semi's gotta be a monster in the weight room (apparently he won two consecutive awards for work in the weight room before he left Duke - either called the "Iron Devil" award or "the Belt").
In the case of Hayward in a pick-n-roll or in iso against the shot clock Isaiah will be a spot-up shooter on the weakside. Sure, Isaiah wouldn't be worthless in those spots, in face he will be pretty good as a spot-up shooter but he isn't going to be getting any more special attention that say Avery was last year. I mean if you don't feel that creating shots and scoring the ball is Isaiah's greatest strength then what exactly are you saying his greatest strength is? He loses value as a weakside spotup shooter.....are you disagreeing with this?
I sincerely doubt you will see the Celtics run many sets where they camp IT in a corner. I also doubt Hayward takes many of IT's up against the shot clock shots. Those mostly come on broken plays where it's the last guy with the ball trying to create something. So, we're really talking about a small number of end game plays, which will still also significantly go to IT and which will also probably involve the Celtics run a lot of 1-3 PnR. So, while IT is certainly less valuable if you camp him in a weakside corner, I don't think that means he's less valuable playing with Hayward.
At times it seemed like Isaiah was tuckered out from having to be the man all the time in those types of situations. Also, the offense became a bit predictable, so the other team could gear their personnel and matchups to stopping IT. I'd think there's value to be gained in allowing him, Hayward (and to a lesser extent Horford) be the primary initiator in late-and-close situations, depending on matchup and fatigue, etc. IT was a 40.4% catch-and-shoot 3point shooter last year, which is really good. Hayward was one of the best cutters, and at 38.5% also decent catch-and-shoot 3, and pretty much above average to elite in every type of offensive situation. I see this more as a glass-half-full in terms of the options it gives Brad on offense (the biggest issue on this team though is that IT's arthritic hip, defensive futility and max contract demands hurt the Cs this season and possibly beyond).
This seems to me to be where they are going: matchups. Coming off the injury, they are going to need to manage IT's minutes well before the playoffs. One of the reasons the Spurs are great year-in-and-year-out is that Popovich rotates his squad, and creates favorable matchups for his backups in order to give his core the rest they've needed. This team, and Stevens, seem well-suited to do something similar.
Perhaps IT sits vs. Wall or Lowry and they give Smart the assignment, which serves two goals: being the best they can be against tonight's opponent, and keeping the recovering-from-injury key player rested and healthy?
That would lead to Smart having a usage pattern of: 12 minutes, 8 minutes, 37 minutes, 18 minutes, etc.
Ringer article on a potential Celtics lineup: https://theringer.com/five-man-lineups-boston-celtics-minnesota-timberwolves-houston-rockets-offseason-f366ac29cf07
This is an excellent point, and one that I think would go further: I don't think they have an option with Isaiah. My understanding of the injury implies that even if we hadn't added Hayward, they would have had to play him less. That is, if he plays 34 minutes a game for 75 games next year, he might be in an OR come playoff time. If he doesn't get the Manu treatment during the regular season, I'll be seriously concerned about his ability to perform or even stay on the court (and that goes for his future beyond the playoffs, too) come playoff time.
So Hayward and his ball-handling couldn't have come at a better time. And blessed be Shane Larkin, I guess.
The only situations where Smart is playing fewer than 25 minutes in a game are where he is in foul trouble or hurt. (There is a slim possibility that 2 or Rosier, Jaylen, and Tatum pass Smart this year, but it seems exceedingly unlikely. Barring that, he's going to play 30 mpg and be on the court at the end of most, if not all, games.)
DEN seems like such a good partner for a Crowder trade. They reallyhave nobody to play the 3, and have so many damn power forwards (Millsap, Faried, Lyles, Hernangomez, Lydon)
Would love to see a deal based around Hernangomez for Crowder.
Would love to see a deal based around Hernangomez for Crowder.
What's the rush to trade Crowder? You want to dump him for a 21YO skinny PF who played 13mpg on a bad team last year?
Second round picks in other threads. Late firsts in other threads. Now a JAG w a limited ceiling?
Maybe we need a "Stupid Trade Ideas For A Valuable Wing" thread to consolidate these.
Maybe you should just chill the F out a bit? geez.
Hernangomez is hardly "skinny" - he is 6"9" and weighs 230 pounds. He also shot 41% from three lat year, and provides more length at the 4 than Crowder and has good quickness for his size.
I'm with southshoresoxfan - why are we looking to trade Crowder exactly? He's an extremely versatile player who fits with almost any collection of other players on the court. I get trading him if there are locker-room issues, but in terms of on-court fit, he's perfect for this team.
Crowder shot 40 except over a much larger sample. 6'9 230 is small for a four even in today's NBA. GH is 6 8 220.
Intriguing idea, but I doubt we'll see this lineup for more than 10 minutes this year.
because the teams needs a PF and Crowder isn't a traditional PF. I don't think HG is either, though. I'd prefer Lydon or Lyles. An S&T for Plumlee would have made some sense prior to Baynes signing.
The Celtics are not following the 1 to 5 position system. Saying they need a 4 (PF) basically tells me you have paid zero attention to Stevens talking about how he feels there are three positions in his system:
The ball handler, the wings, and the Bigs.
Crowder isn't a traditional PF, but he fits in Stevens system as a Wing.
The ball handler, the wings, and the Bigs.
Crowder isn't a traditional PF, but he fits in Stevens system as a Wing.
Any of these proposals get you like 30 cents on the dollar for Crowder.
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We have the same overall discussion about how the C's need to go out and get rebounding and rim protection. Yet we now have a few years of this team being a playoff squad and Ainge/Stevens clearly favoring players who can play both ends of the floor at the perimeter versus traditional big guys who can "crash the glass and guard the paint".
To be clear, I am not saying that were the right big to fall into their lap, that they wouldn't happily deal Crowder for such a player. However, given what we think may be available, what the team has done to date and Stevens has explicitly said, its not like they are going to trade him away just to get another "big". Once again, skilled wings are the coin of the realm in today's NBA.
I just don't think Danny agrees. He could have gone for Millsap on a shorter deal than Hayward, and if you squint maybe convinced him to take a third year in exchange for less than max money (thus keeping Bradley for another year) Instead it was guns blazing for Hayward.
Whether or not you agree with trading Jae Crowder, I'm guessing his value around the league is a late first round pick. HG, Lyles and Lydon are that. I don't buy they really need a PF, but that's the thinking behind it. If you look at "traditional" lineups, the obvious weak spot is the 4 and rim protection. It's a disagreement of philosophy more than anything. I personally think they should just play their 5 best players, position be damned.
If this is true, then there's really no need for Jae Crowder trade discussions.
You don't trade a good, young rotation player, who's signed for half-price for three years, for a late first round draft pick. Especially when you're a really good team that already has a load of picks and prospects.
Bingo. If that's his value then there's 29 other GMs in the league who are asleep at the wheel. He's not a perfect player but at a rookie scale contract for 3 years he's essentially free. And a very important contract as the tax looms.