Dismiss Notice
Guest, I have a big favor to ask you. We've been working very hard to establish ourselves on social media. If you like/follow our pages it would be a HUGE help to us. SoSH on Facebook and Inside the Pylon Thanks! Nip

2017 Butler Watch: Love Me Tender

Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by Infield Infidel, Mar 10, 2017.

  1. Billy R Ford

    Billy R Ford douchebag q momfingerer SoSH Member

    Messages:
    879
    This is where I'm at; the only thing this situation tells me is that the media has no idea how negotiations work.

    Say you're Butler's agent. You have no leverage, and you know it. Your client wants a big deal. How do you get leverage? Most straightforward answer: act like you have zero intention of signing with the Patriots. Get it out there that Butler was pissed at the contract given to Gilmore, but not him. Get the media start talking about how he feels wronged. Then start meeting with other teams. Everyone says a team would be crazy to give Butler his payday while also giving up their first round pick.... but they're still meeting with him, and no one knows what's being discussed. Hopefully you spook Belichick into giving Butler the big contract. If you don't, what have you lost? Play on the tender and do it again next year, with UFA leverage.

    I don't think it'll work (cause BB's a pro), and maybe Butler's agent doesn't think it'll work, but why wouldn't you try? It's already worked on the media, and half the fan base, who would've given Butler his payday weeks ago. It's playing hard ball, but that's the way it is.
     
  2. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

    Messages:
    2,983
    I'm not sure he's doing it with the aim of "spooking Belichick", which seems about as likely as someone spooking J. Edgar Hoover in his prime. But I wouldn't be surprised if he was embellishing the discontent, in order to make other teams think that Butler would seriously entertain signing a modest offer with a large fraction thereof guaranteed, so that at least one or two such offers materialize. Because otherwise they might assume they were just a stalking horse (as the Steelers did with Hightower) and not waste their time.

    Then again, I'm not going to assume an agent is thinking 5 moves ahead when he's negotiated as many open-market NFL contracts as Nip has.
     
  3. wilked

    wilked Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,110
    It doesn't work that way though, since salaries are not flat year to year
     
  4. wilked

    wilked Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,110
    What I keep coming back to: The Browns essentially bought a second round draft pick for $15MM or so. A first rd pick has to be worth at least that. Any team signing Butler and giving up that late rd pick is losing $15MM of value, so will look to sign him to less money to compensate (say $10MM less, and they overpay slightly for Butler).

    Which then circles back to the Pats, if they could sign Butler to a contract that is Market Value (MV) - $10MM as a result of the tender rules, they likely do I think and forego the pick.
     
  5. steveluck7

    steveluck7 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,366
    Which, IMO, is why NO won't sign an offer sheet. They're holding out for a trade because their offer for him will likely be attractive to NE to match.
     
  6. drleather2001

    drleather2001 given himself a skunk spot SoSH Member

    Messages:
    23,713
    The Browns' valuation of a 2nd round pick doesn't directly correlate to other teams' valuation of that same pick, much less picks in other rounds. The Browns had/have a glut of cap room. Money is basically worth less to the Browns than it's worth for other teams that have less to play with.
     
  7. jimbobim

    jimbobim Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,557
    Per Butler's Agent oops I mean the generally likeable Mike Giardi

    Don't read too much into silence on Butler front. Focused on Saints. Parameters of deal mostly in place SOME (emphasis mine) quibbling over guaranteed $$$. As for compensation to Pats can't be discussed until Butler signs tender but both sides know what it will take to get deal done...

    Then he adds this doozy
    Sense I get is there's a bit of high stakes chicken on compensation front, but saints enamored with player


    In sum
    Butler agent and Saints can't agree on guaranteed $$$ and the teams haven't discussed anything b/c they legally can't but they know what it will take... His added chicken tweet makes his update close to worthless....
     
  8. wilked

    wilked Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,110
    While it doesn't directly correlate, I don't think it could be that far off. It's still $$ in the end, and I can't see them paying $15MM for something valued at $5MM
     
  9. drleather2001

    drleather2001 given himself a skunk spot SoSH Member

    Messages:
    23,713
    Counterpoint: It's the Browns.
     
  10. Hoodie Sleeves

    Hoodie Sleeves Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    946
    I'm still not convinced by this argument. We're in the 1st year of a 4 year cap block. There's absolutely no reason the Browns have to spend the money right now - it can be rolled over into future years.

    Does anyone know if we have anything like the surplus value charts for draft picks like baseball does? The average career trajectory for a second round pick is pretty low.
     
  11. Harry Hooper

    Harry Hooper Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    22,796
    Wait, last week the agent was getting the story out that Butler would ultimately come back to NE and play for the tender in order to spur teams into making juicier offers to get Butler to leave.
     
  12. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

    Messages:
    2,983
    So you'd agree, then, that Derek Simpson is working whatever angles he can to gin up Butler's market? I wouldn't imagine he'd rely on a single tactic in that regard.

    I'm coming around to the idea that he's not an idiot. I recently re-read the story of how he got the Patriots to show interest. Boyer (and Butler) deserve the lion's share of the credit for taking the right risks, but it took some balls to do this:

    I thought there was more in that really long in-depth article from, might've been last summer, about Butler's rise and his relationship with Simpson, but I can't find it now. I did find this about Simpson though. I had no idea Butler was Simpson's last chance to maintain his certification as an NFL agent.
     
  13. nothumb

    nothumb Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,845
    This seems like a relevant caveat, but it doesn't change the fundamental truth that the value of cash under the cap and draft picks are somewhat relative among teams. They may be "less" relative (valuations may be more tightly clustered) at the start of a cap block than at the end, but they are still relative.

    While that cash essentially spends the same at any point in the cap block, there are other reasons why teams might prefer to juggle it around - cash flow, projected roster construction, reading of draft and FA markets, etc. And right now the Browns have so much excess cap room, they may rationally believe that even if they save all of it for late in the block, they still wouldn't be able to spend it as efficiently as they would by converting some of it now into cost-controlled talent or trade assets, even if those assets are inherently volatile. We have such incomplete knowledge of the market - really it's a couple of linked markets - that it's hard to judge that in a vacuum.
     
  14. boca

    boca lurker

    Messages:
    134

    Michael Giardi ✔ @MikeGiardi
    Don't read too much into silence on Butler front. Focused on Saints. Parameters of deal mostly in place. Some quibbling over guaranteed $$$
    2:22 PM - 20 Mar 2017


    Michael Giardi ✔ @MikeGiardi
    As for compensation for Butler, can't be discussed until he signs tender but both sides know what it will take to get deal done...
    2:23 PM - 20 Mar 2017


    Michael Giardi ✔ @MikeGiardi
    Sense i get is there's a bit of a game of high stakes chicken on compensation front, but Saints enamored with player
    2:25 PM - 20 Mar 2017
     
  15. Kenny F'ing Powers

    Kenny F'ing Powers posts 18% useful shit Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,907
    Which metric would you like to use? Thats a borderline top 10 yearly average, top 10 guaranteed, only 2 people in the top 20 have a higher percentage of guaranteed money, top 15 total money...wheres the discount?
     
  16. wilked

    wilked Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,110
    Look at this offseason, and the cornerback signings.

    You've got a few injury guys on a 1 year prove-it deal (Amukamara, Caliborne, Shead). You've got another RFA like Butler (Cockrell). Then you've got true FA signings:

    Trumaine Johnson: Franchise (1yr/$14MM)
    Stephon Gilmore: 5yr/$65MM/$40MM guarantee
    AJ Bouye: 5yr/$67.5MM/$26MM guarantee
    Logan Ryan: 3yr/$30MM/$12MM guarantee
    Dre Kirkpatrick: 5yr/$52.5MM/$12MM guarantee

    Johnson is a true #1 cornerback, which is why he is franchised. Gilmore clear #1 (commands $40MM guarantee). Bouye I would argue as well is a true #1 ($26MM guarantee).
    The Logan Ryans and Dre Kirkpatricks are the #2s, and command the $12MM guarantees. The market seems clear on those differences.

    If you are talking about a $20MM guarantee you are somewhere in the middle, so whether you call them a low-range #1 or a high-range #2 is probably semantics. I just don't think you can compare salaries across the board - you've got to use recent comps
     
  17. Kenny F'ing Powers

    Kenny F'ing Powers posts 18% useful shit Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,907
    None of those players are RFA's (as you know). That changes the entire dynamics of the question.

    FWIW, I'm not sure how I got myself into this argument as I think 4/40 is something BB would jump at if NO offered it to Butler. At least I think he should. I think Butler falls somewhere between a clear #1 and #2. Call him a #1B, I guess. He's successful because the coaching staff was able to put him in the best position to succeed throughout the year. I don't think he can succeed playing straight up on a teams #1 receiver. I think $10-11m a year for someone like that is fair. And I think the Patriots would agree, which is why I think Butler is looking for the Gilmore/Bouye money.
     
  18. Hoodie Sleeves

    Hoodie Sleeves Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    946
    "Playing Straight up on a team's #1 receiver" is a qualification that very few NFL cornerbacks can meet. I can't think of anyone recently who could consistently do that (aside from Revis in his prime). Johnson and Gilmore can't do that.
     
  19. Kenny F'ing Powers

    Kenny F'ing Powers posts 18% useful shit Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,907
    Fuck. You have to know what i meant, right?
     
  20. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,384
    I think his argument is that your definition of #1 corner is too restrictive, and I think he's right.
     
  21. Kenny F'ing Powers

    Kenny F'ing Powers posts 18% useful shit Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,907
    Christ.

    Yes, I get it. Most #1 corners aren't playing the #1 receiver with no help over the top. The literal police are out in full force, today. None of this has anything to do with the point of my post - which is that Butler gets more help than a traditional "True #1" - but thanks for the mental exercise, guys.
     
  22. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

    Messages:
    16,193
    You think they value it at $10-$11M? That is what Ryan got paid (obviously not by the Pats). But I would guess the Pats value Butler over Ryan
     
  23. Kenny F'ing Powers

    Kenny F'ing Powers posts 18% useful shit Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,907
    I'm not sure if that's what they value him at, but I think if he was offered a 4/40 that BB would gladly swallow that pill. Ryan has much more limitations then Butler.
     
  24. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

    Messages:
    16,193
    Right, I fully agree. I meant more in the context of if Butler was on the open market, what BB would value him at. Obviously Butler ISN'T, which is the complicating factor in all of this. The Pats may very well have already offered 4/$40 and been turned down. But I would imagine if he was on the open market, BB would value him at something less than Gilmore but more than Ryan.
     
  25. Kenny F'ing Powers

    Kenny F'ing Powers posts 18% useful shit Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,907
    Yeah, Im in agreement. I also think teams that are starved for corners would pay him closer to Gilmore money, and they'd be wrong to do so.
     
  26. snowmanny

    snowmanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    7,675
    If the Pats offered 4/40 it's really 4+3/36 which is > Ryan money.
     
  27. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    28,848
  28. Kenny F'ing Powers

    Kenny F'ing Powers posts 18% useful shit Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,907
    Thats what they should say. They hold the cards.
     
  29. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    53,512
    I'm not sure what you mean ... :rolleyes:
     
  30. OurF'ingCity

    OurF'ingCity lurker

    Messages:
    687
    This tweet makes no sense to me. If the Patriots won't/can't discuss a Butler trade unless and until he signs the tender, how can the Saints "know what it will take to get a deal done"? Conversely, if the Patriots and Saints are dropping hints to each other (perhaps during the Cooks negotiations) about what a deal for Butler would cost, that would seem to to be really pushing the limit on what is legal, which hasn't appeared to have been Belichick's MO in the past on this front.

    (On the other hand, I doubt the Saints would be spending this much time negotiating with Butler unless they were fairly confident a trade could be had, so either the Patriots and Saints have had some level of discussion or the Saints are just flying blind assuming the Patriots will play ball.)
     
  31. wilked

    wilked Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,110
    This is starting to feel like a bit of this
    [​IMG]
     
  32. Van Everyman

    Van Everyman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    14,172
    Florio with the Most Puzzlingly Complex Butler-Saints Trade Scenario:

    http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/category/rumor-mill/
     
  33. mwonow

    mwonow Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,838
    Wouldn't it be simpler for the Saints to trade their 11 for something of value - say, a pick this year and a future 1 - then sign Butler to an offer sheet and use #32 as compensation?
     
  34. Harry Hooper

    Harry Hooper Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    22,796
    Are NFL teams allowed by league rules to sign a free agent and then almost immediately turn around and trade him to another team? In other words, can a player leave Team A as a free agent and sign with Team B, but then Team B trades the player to Team C before he ever plays for Team B?
     
  35. Kenny F'ing Powers

    Kenny F'ing Powers posts 18% useful shit Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,907
    Has to be their own draft pick.
     
  36. Koufax

    Koufax Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,771
    Sounds like collusion to get around the rules. Since the Pats are the victim, I suppose it will pass without objection on Park Ave.
     
  37. mwonow

    mwonow Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,838
    Interesting - I thought they just needed a first
     
  38. ZMart100

    ZMart100 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    714
    Seems like an unlikely scenario for several reasons.

    First, the structure of the contract is going to be difficult. I'd imagine no third team would want to take on dead money, so that means no signing bonus. I suppose the way around that is to have guarantees that kick in after the signing. I suppose that the contract could have guarantees that essentially kick in on some future date, like June 1. However, from Butler's point of view lacking large upfront money is going to need to be compensated by higher guarantees throughout the life of the contract.

    Second, there is no guarantee for NO that they end up getting the player. NE could choose to match, which would be true of any contract they could offer. The third team could decide that they like the player and whatever additional compensation they would need to send to NO more that the 11 pick.

    Third, if I were the third team, I would worry about NO backing out of the deal. I would have to be okay if I got stuck with the contract and loss of my first round pick.

    Fourth, if it really is problematic to discuss a trade of a player that isn't on the roster, this is a clear violation. The structure of the deal would be more than enough proof to cause problems with the league office.

    I like Florio, but this is a half baked idea. Just like the secret-NE-NO-negotiations story from other sources, I think this is just a football writer flinging stuff against the wall.
     
  39. edmunddantes

    edmunddantes Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,055
    The most hilarious aspect of all of these scenarios that require all kinds of crazy hoops and bending/breaking the rules is the idea that Bill Belichick is willing to mess with the line considering the hardon 345 park and other owners still have for him not being punished enough by spygate and now deflategate.
     
  40. Obscure Name

    Obscure Name Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    10,340
    Or better.
     
  41. Koufax

    Koufax Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,771
    The premise is impossible. How do you construct a deal that you know the Patriots wouldn't match without engaging in an overpay so large that it is simply a bad deal? And why downgrade your draft selection in order to make a bad deal? Florio is just spinning his wheels, as many are, trying to figure a way out of the box that Malcolm finds himself in. The Pats have the cards and no amount of hand-waving changes that.
     
  42. TheoShmeo

    TheoShmeo Skrub's sympathy case Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    11,293
    It also seems as if an overall deal cannot be made without circumventing the rules.

    The Saints should not give Butler Gilmore Money if they have to trade the 11.

    The Pats should not do the Saints a favor and accept the 32.

    So unless you tie yourself into a Florion Pretzel, it seems like it is destined to fail...absent some back channeling. And why would the Pats risk anything under these circumstances?
     
  43. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,731
    The Pats clearly hold all the cards here. Except maybe one. And that one is if Belichick believes that Butler will be so disgruntled, that he will be a real malcontent, and that maybe, as he has the right to do, he won't show up until the last possible moment (November, I believe), and so the Patriots end up paying him $3.9 million for just a handful of weeks' worth of service, and maybe very poor service at that because of his disgruntled disposition.

    If Belichick believes that has a high probability of happening, then he might figure that it's not at all worth keeping him in Foxboro, and so he feels like the only real move for the well being of the Patriots is to trade him, even if it means getting less than what the first round tender ought to bring back.

    It is really the only card that Butler can play, and it may in fact be the kind of thing that hurts Butler in the end, should he choose to actually go that route. But that won't matter to the Patriots, who would ALSO be hurt by him doing this.

    And so maybe, to avoid all that, BB decides that the best course of action is to trade Butler for the best deal he can find, even if it's less than a first round pick.
     
  44. edmunddantes

    edmunddantes Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,055
    pretty sure Butler doesn't get the whole contract if he waits till 6 weeks left.

    But if butler does play it that way. He has to make sure those are the best 6 plus weeks (hopefully more playoffs) of his life or he's going to be leaving a lot of money on the table.

    It's a gamble either way for both teams. It'll be fascinating to see who's bluffing and who catches the card they need on the river.
     
  45. Mystic Merlin

    Mystic Merlin Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    25,244
    If Butler doesn't sign his tender by June, then the Patriots can revert his salary to 110% of his 2016 salary ($660,000).
     
  46. Koufax

    Koufax Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,771
    And then if he holds out, presumably he doesn't get paid. So he'd make less this year than last. Not likely.
     
  47. Van Everyman

    Van Everyman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    14,172
    Even still, have a hard time seeing the Pats retaining Butler if he's legitimately sour. Collins is the latest example of how they tend to cut bait with guys instead of playing hardball.

    I'm still braced for being disappointed with the final compensation here. It's too bad the two sides weren't able to find some middle ground earlier on.
     
  48. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,731
    He could sign the tender on time and then just not report til November, I think. And players do hold out sometimes, even if it costs them money. Once a person is committed to a course of action, sometimes they follow it through, even to their own detriment.

    Right, I'm not saying this is a good play for Butler. As I said, I think it would hurt him in the long run, as it would, at a minimum, show other teams that he is capable of being so disgruntled that he totally disrupts the team, and how many teams want to take that on?

    The point I'm trying to make is simply that if Belichick is at all concerned that this is a real possibility, he may think it's just best to move on, and could deal Butler even if he doesn't get a first round pick back in return.

    Me too. I think this is a distinct possibility, when all is said and done.
     
  49. TheoShmeo

    TheoShmeo Skrub's sympathy case Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    11,293
    The elephant in the room, to me, is why they still can't or have not. And maybe they still will.

    We have

    - a trying set of circumstances for the Saints and Pats deal wise

    - the possibility that Butler would make more long term if he stuck with the Pats

    - a very promising young player

    - the chance for a stacked team to have two damn near elite corners

    - a SB hero (less relevant but not irrelevant)

    - great minds on the Pats side

    Given all that, one would think that a middle ground could still emerge and if it does not, it could mean that Butler's side is just irrevocably shut down. If so, there's nothing they can do. But if not, I would like to think the Pats could still find a creative solution or compromise. And if they are not trying to do that, they should be.
     
  50. Stitch01

    Stitch01 Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    18,244
    Yeah, this has to be part of BB's calculus. Or that Butler shows up and plays hero ball. Maybe it would be counterproductive for Butler to do any of these things, but people don't always act rationally.

    Im inclined to trust BB's judgment here.
     

Share This Page