2017 Butler Watch: Love Me Tender

tims4wins

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Consider the source, but I don't see any reason to believe Butler will hold out. It's a pretty poor decision on the economics alone.
As we have discussed, there is likely some information missing there, considering that in 2014 - when Butler was on the team - the Pats paid Revis well north of $10M
 

E5 Yaz

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I meant Butler and Gilmore as your top two corners.

Regardless of the SB itself, Rowe was normally a slot corner and normally played many fewer snaps than Butler or Ryan..
I'm looking for the numbers, but I don't believe this to be true
 

Bleedred

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I meant Butler and Gilmore as your top two corners.

Regardless of the SB itself, Rowe was normally a slot corner and normally played many fewer snaps than Butler or Ryan.

My contention is that the Pats are likely materially better with Gilmore and Butler in the 1 and 2 roles than they are with Gilmore and Rowe. Nothing that happened in the SB changes my view on that.

Also, I think they are better with Gilmore, Butler and Rowe on the field than they are with Gilmore, Rowe and Jones/Jones/X.
I don't think anyone would dispute that. But you are comparing a Gilmore-Butler combo to a Gilmore-Rowe combo. The former is more formidable no doubt, but the NEP just won the SB with a Butler-Rowe combo, which the Gilmore-Rowe combo is damn close to equal to, if not better. Now add in Brandin Cooks, Rob Gronkowski (hopefully) to an already powerful offense, and I think you can remain confident that we stand an excellent chance to return to the SB.

Edit: spelling
 

tims4wins

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I meant Butler and Gilmore as your top two corners.

Regardless of the SB itself, Rowe was normally a slot corner and normally played many fewer snaps than Butler or Ryan.

My contention is that the Pats are likely materially better with Gilmore and Butler in the 1 and 2 roles than they are with Gilmore and Rowe. Nothing that happened in the SB changes my view on that.

Also, I think they are better with Gilmore, Butler and Rowe on the field than they are with Gilmore, Rowe and Jones/Jones/X.
I don't think anyone disagrees with this. But I think the comparison should be Gilmore, Butler, and Rowe vs. Butler, Ryan, and Rowe, in terms of a comparison vs. last year. I think Gilmore, Butler, and Rowe is better, but not "materially" so.

Also, I fully expect Cyrus Jones to be a good slot corner this year.
 

mwonow

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So in a Lombardi esque blatant use of media Payton goes on radio and praises Butler. NFL journos promptly say " done deal HC s never do this for player not on team". Meanwhile the Saints have a toxic cap situation which makes actually offering an unmatchable tender sheet extremely unlikely nevermind the fact they've openly rejected idea of trading 11 for Butler.

Now there's been a lot of NFL writers saying well 32 and something else would be a reasonable deal and there's no rule requiring that Pats get equivalent of 11. But that rationale ignores that if NE agreed to that arrangment that why wouldn't they just shop the right to negotiate with Butler all over the league ? Doubtful they couldn't do better than 32 plus later rounds...

Instead NO applies as much soft media pressure as possible in the hopes of getting BB and NEP to miraculously forget Butler and any team trying to sign/trade for him have no leverage. Zip.
I get that you're not making this point personally, but as I understand it, there is a rule that requires that the Pats get not just the equivalent of 11, but 11 itself. Pats are free to waive that entitlement in favour of something else, but that gang of NFL scribes and the train of thought they're riding should stop at the next station for a reality check...
 

TheoShmeo

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I don't think anyone disagrees with this. But I think the comparison should be Gilmore, Butler, and Rowe vs. Butler, Ryan, and Rowe, in terms of a comparison vs. last year. I think Gilmore, Butler, and Rowe is better, but not "materially" so.

Also, I fully expect Cyrus Jones to be a good slot corner this year.
I don't think that including Ryan in the mix is that useful. He's gone, and nothing's gonna bring him back.

The options for the top 3 corners snaps wise are

- Gilmore, Butler, Rowe and

- Gilmore, Rowe, Jones/Jones/X

As to Cyrus Jones being good at anything this (meaning in 2017) year, I would like to believe that will be the case. And there is certainly precedent for players in the system going from useless looking to very useful with the passage of time. Marcus Cannon, Logan Ryan and James White all fit that bill in different ways.

But damn, Cyrus Jones looked like a deer with seven cars of headlights last year. Based on his comments, his confidence took a major hit. The good news is that he has talent and seems motivated to prove the doubters wrong. But count me as not fully expecting anything that generous for him. Again, history would tell me to have faith.
 
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E5 Yaz

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But that rationale ignores that if NE agreed to that arrangment that why wouldn't they just shop the right to negotiate with Butler all over the league ?
I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. There is nothing to "shop"; any team can negotiate with Butler at the moment without needing approval from the Patriots
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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As we have discussed, there is likely some information missing there, considering that in 2014 - when Butler was on the team - the Pats paid Revis well north of $10M
Was just trying to post the 'Butler won't hold out' part .

As to the $10M comment, I woudln't read into it anymore than the Patriots telling Butler they weren't going to offer him 10+ a year *at that point, in that situation*.
 

NortheasternPJ

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I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. There is nothing to "shop"; any team can negotiate with Butler at the moment without needing approval from the Patriots
I think he's implying that once Butler signs the offer sheet, they're not required to trade him to NO, but shop him to the rest of the league so he can play the year at the tender price for that team (or get a new contract) or force him to play this year for that tender in New England (unless he holds out)

I'm all for "this is a business" but that's a pretty rough stance to take even if it's legal, it's pretty shitty.
 

ifmanis5

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As to Cyrus Jones being good at anything this year, I would like to believe that will be the case. And there is certainly precedent for players in the system going from useless looking to very useful with the passage of time. Marcus Cannon, Logan Ryan and James White all fit that bill in different ways.

But damn, Cyrus Jones looked like a deer with seven cars of headlights last year.
Hightower was also really bad in his first year. Was way behind the play to the point where we all wondered if his foot speed was a problem. Turns out he was trying to get his head around his complex responsibilities. Once he did, he excelled. Hopefully Jones works hard this offseason and figures it out. His physical skills are there.
 

Curt S Loew

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I get that you're not making this point personally, but as I understand it, there is a rule that requires that the Pats get not just the equivalent of 11, but 11 itself. Pats are free to waive that entitlement in favour of something else, but that gang of NFL scribes and the train of thought they're riding should stop at the next station for a reality check...
Not for a trade there isn't. That's what they were referencing.
 

Section15Box113

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Rowe was normally a slot corner and normally played many fewer snaps than Butler or Ryan.
Don't have the breakdown on where they lined up and agree it was many fewer snaps than Butler.

In the 12 games that Rowe was active (surely, a meaningful caveat), here was the snap breakdown of total snaps from Reiss's count:

Butler: 731
Ryan: 624
Rowe: 583

Difference of 41 snaps is ~3.4 per game.

Only point here is that when Rowe was active, he was on the field almost as much as Ryan.

Take out his first game (and weeks 10 and 14 when Rowe was inactive):

Ryan: 558
Rowe: 557
 

Ed Hillel

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Space is dwindling. My guess is the Saints restructure a contract or two to make a Butler contract work. Armstead, Unger would be easiest.
There are plenty of ways to make it work with limited space this season. I don't know their cap for the next few seasons, but you figure the go up enough each year they could afford this just fine as long as they aren't set up poorly moving forward.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Consider the source, but I don't see any reason to believe Butler will hold out. It's a pretty poor decision on the economics alone.
This comes out for a reason.

Feels like the Saints aren't meeting the Pats demand and the Pats also aren't bending on a huge contract. "I'm holding out!" Is the natural progression.
 

Saints Rest

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I meant Butler and Gilmore as your top two corners.

Regardless of the SB itself, Rowe was normally a slot corner and normally played many fewer snaps than Butler or Ryan.

My contention is that the Pats are likely materially better with Gilmore and Butler in the 1 and 2 roles than they are with Gilmore and Rowe. Nothing that happened in the SB changes my view on that.

Also, I think they are better with Gilmore, Butler and Rowe on the field than they are with Gilmore, Rowe and Jones/Jones/X.
The tricky part in your comparison is the unknown X in that equation. Maybe X becomes the 2017 version of Devin McCourty (picked #27 overall) who was pretty damn good in his rookie year. Or maybe even Asante Samuel (selected 120th overall) who was pretty good his first year as well. Or going way back, Ty Law (23) or Raymond Clayborn (16).
Then again, he could be Cyrus Jones (60), Ras-I Dowling (33) or Darius Butler (41).
Or maybe they sign a FA or make a trade and he ends up this year's version of Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner or Otis Smith.
Then again, he could be Duane Starks.
 

Curt S Loew

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Consider the source, but I don't see any reason to believe Butler will hold out. It's a pretty poor decision on the economics alone.
This comes out for a reason.

Feels like the Saints aren't meeting the Pats demand and the Pats also aren't bending on a huge contract. "I'm holding out!" Is the natural progression.
That tweet was on the 13th. Discussed earlier in the thread.
 

j-man

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I dont think the mechanics would work, giving up a 1st without extending now is pretty risky and Pats probably wouldnt take Talib's $11MM salary this year.
denver would have to pay 2m in dead money in sign bouns to tailb i wouild extend butler to match gilmore deal after 2017 i throught tailb sal was 10 mil this year do u have any backups makeing 3 to 4 mil in 17 denver needs depth esp at OL DL had u not cut vollmer his salery couild had help it this dream deal
 

j-man

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and about your QB'S the smart money wouild be to trade brady after 2017 to ZONA SF or LA Brady to LA wouild be great if A Donld was part of the package the NFL gets a LA Star u get get a young richard seymour
 

Koufax

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A team might pay him less than #1CB money but more than $3.9MM, and Butler might accept it, particularly if he had an opt-out after 1 year.
 

E5 Yaz

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Any team giving him #1 CB money and losing a first round draft pick is a horribly run franchise.

Going to be weird seeing him as a Colt.
There are teams, though, picking late in the first round, who might consider the idea. Dallas comes to mind.
 

Ed Hillel

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A team might pay him less than #1CB money but more than $3.9MM, and Butler might accept it, particularly if he had an opt-out after 1 year.
Yeah, but who's giving up a first round pick for a single season of Malcolm Butler?

I'm still waiting for Oakland to make a move. Dallas would make sense, but Jerrah would have to seriously overpay on the back end, and the Romo experience MIGHT have taught him a lesson.
 
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bankshot1

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Per Jeff Howe, the Patriots are rightfully holding out for the 11th pick.

There is ZERO reason for the Pats to negotiate against themselves.

If other teams get interested, (for example Colts @15) and offer Butler Saint's type $$, maybe the Saints offer the 32 pick (590 draft value point-yes I know the #s aren't perfect) and their 2nd round pick (480) or 3rd ( 210) in lieu of the 11 (1250). They still get a discount and the player they want.
 

Ed Hillel

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There is ZERO reason for the Pats to negotiate against themselves.

If other teams get interested, (for example Colts @15) and offer Butler Saint's type $$, maybe the Saints offer the 32 pick (590 draft value point-yes I know the #s aren't perfect) and their 2nd round pick (480) in lieu of the 11 (1250). They still get a discount and the player they want.
Saints can't do any of this until Butler acts, though. If others with better money offers get involved, Belichick won't have a choice to trade with the Saints. Butler will just sign the best offer and Pats have to match or take the first.
 

RedOctober3829

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If there's competition for Butler, all the more reason for the Patriots to hold teams over a barrel. They don't need to trade him and I think they should not do anything less than go the offer sheet route. The acquiring team should have to give up their highest 1st rd pick plus the contract for a premium player like Butler. If I were BB, I'd be more than comfortable keeping him, getting 1 more great cheap year out of him, and letting him walk for a pick. That's a better scenario to me than taking less value in a trade.
 

bankshot1

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Saints can't do any of this until Butler acts, though. If others with better money offers get involved, Belichick won't have a choice to trade with the Saints. Butler will just sign the best offer and Pats have to match or take the first.
Right. But if the Pats/Saints reach agreement, then the Saints can move forward and make a formal offer. It will then be up to Butler to sign his tender, or not and keep on shopping the market. IMO more interested buyers is fine for the Pats.
 

TheoShmeo

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The same mentality that prevents the Pats from paying Butler what he wants should prevent them from giving the Saints what they want (Butler for the 32). Said differently, why would the Pats accommodate Payton and not Butler? Said differently again, I hope BB continues to offer no special deal to his friend in New Orleans. It would make little sense.
 

E5 Yaz

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Right. But if the Pats/Saints reach agreement, then the Saints can move forward and make a formal offer. It will then be up to Butler to sign his tender, or not and keep on shopping the market. IMO more interested buyers is fine for the Pats.
All this depends on how much you believe BB's stance that he won't talk trade until after Butler signs the tender.
 

lambeau

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Butler wants Gilmore money.
If the Browns value a late 2nd round pick at $16M, teams will want a several million/year discount to give up their first round pick. Butler won't do that.
Impasse.
BB wins.
 

snowmanny

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Any team giving him #1 CB money and losing a first round draft pick is a horribly run franchise.

Going to be weird seeing him as a Colt.
Except you don't necessarily have to give him true #1 CB money. He's not getting Gilmore 5/65/40guaranteed. He might be thrilled with 4/40/20guaranteed since he's otherwise looking at 3.9.
 

Jnai

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Except you don't necessarily have to give him true #1 CB money. He's not getting Gilmore 5/65/40guaranteed. He might be thrilled with 4/40/20guaranteed since he's otherwise looking at 3.9.
If a team offered him that and he was content to sign it, the Patriots would just match.

Butler isn't content taking a discount, for all we've heard. If he was, we wouldn't be in this situation.
 

southshoresoxfan

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This is the wierdest story of the offseason. Butler has zero leverage. Saints fans and writers running around saying "Ha! Pats aren't getting 11 for Butler!" With little knowledge or regard for the RFA rules.

Butler will be a Patriot next year. This is as anticlimatic as the Hightower situation.
 

E5 Yaz

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The mistake on the part of Saints followers is that they think this is either-or -- Butler can either be in New Orleans next season or back to the Patriots. If Butler's interest in NO is legit, the best thing he could do would be to take another visit or two next week (as Howe mentions). That puts a bit more pressure on the Saints to give him an offer sheet, or risk losing the chance to get him.
 

bankshot1

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All this depends on how much you believe BB's stance that he won't talk trade until after Butler signs the tender.
At some point communication among the parties is required. Otherwise there is a lot of wasted motion.

At this point, after Butler has visited the Saints, and the Saints have expressed their interest, BB could make it known that he expects the #11 as called for by the CBA. And the Saints could then inquire whether other consideration might satisfy the Pats.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Except you don't necessarily have to give him true #1 CB money. He's not getting Gilmore 5/65/40guaranteed. He might be thrilled with 4/40/20guaranteed since he's otherwise looking at 3.9.
$20 million guaranteed would be the 10th most guaranteed money for a CB. IE, number 1 money.