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2017 Awards

Discussion in 'MLB Discussion' started by bosox79, Sep 24, 2017.

  1. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    5,983
    Who do people have winning the MVP, ROY, and Cy Young awards for 2017?

    AL MVP should go to Altuve with Judge having an outside change. NL MVP is a complete toss up if they won't vote for Stanton. If they won't vote for a player on a losing team, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rendon, Kris Bryant and quite a few others comes into play.

    AL ROY is Judge. NL ROY is Bellinger.

    AL Cy Young is most likely Kluber, with Sale maybe getting some votes. NL Cy Young probably goes to Scherzer but I could see Gonzales and Kershaw getting votes, despite the latter missing time.
     
  2. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    967
    Well, if they can vote for Kershaw despite missed time, they could surely vote for Trout too, as he's been better than Altuve or Judge
     
  3. Dahabenzapple2

    Dahabenzapple2 lurker

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    If it isn't Stanton, doesn't it have to be Goldschmidt?
     
  4. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    .673 OPS in the last 18 games as LAA went 7-11 to drop out of the playoffs, combined with all of the missed time, I don't think it's his year.
     
  5. Schnerres

    Schnerres Member SoSH Member

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    1,394
    AL MVP: Altuve
    AL CY: Kluber
    AL ROY: Judge

    NL MVP: Stanton
    NL CY: Scherzer
    NL ROY: Bellinger
     
  6. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    31,376
  7. Marciano490

    Marciano490 Urological Expert SoSH Member

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    25,306
    Would have to be the first time there was a full foot difference in height between the two leading vote getters. Are they respectively the tallest and position players in the league?
     
  8. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Tony Kemp on HOU is also listed at 5'6", but I think pretty much they're the shortest and tallest respectively.
     
  9. Marciano490

    Marciano490 Urological Expert SoSH Member

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    25,306
    Well, 49 for Judge, trying the rookie mark. I'd think at 50 he'd have the record and the MVP.
     
  10. wilked

    wilked Member SoSH Member

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    Anyone think Sale deserves it over Kluber?

    I don't personally, just curious if anyone does
     
  11. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    I know earlier in the season Judge had insane numbers against mediocre or worse pitching and bad numbers against good pitching; has that changed with his recent resurgence or has he just been facing the Bartolo Colons of the world in September?
     
  12. NJ_Sox_Fan

    NJ_Sox_Fan Member SoSH Member

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    2,592
    Even with 50 i don't think he's MVP. He's still hitting under .220 since the AS break. His late and close and high leverage stats are not good. He has immense power, but loads of guys have hit 50 plus and not won an MVP award.
     
  13. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    The seond half BA thing is silly because he has continued to walk a ton, he has an .875 OPS since the break before his two HR game today so probably over .900 now.

    The late and close and high leverage points are relevant and valid, but also worth noting that Altuve's high leverage numbers are a lot lower also (.854 OPS for Altuve, .834 for Judge before today).
     
  14. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    31,376
    FWIW, Judge is ahead of Altuve in fWAR now, 7.6 to 7.3.
     
  15. Kliq

    Kliq Member SoSH Member

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    5,713
    Two NL players that deserve a lot of votes are Joey Votto and Charlie Blackmon. Votto is having his typical beastly on-base season, leading the league in walks, OBP and OPS, as well as finishing in the top five in average, WAR, adjusted OPS+ and runs created, as well as in the top ten in slugging, runs, hits, total bases, HRs and RBIs. His team sucks and he plays so-so defense at a low priority position, but realistically is as good of a candidate as Goldschmidt.

    Blackmon is imo a really underrated player. He plays in Denver, but still, he is leading the NL in runs, hits, average, triples and total bases. He is second in slugging, second in oWAR, fifth in OBP and third in homers.
     
  16. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    13,423
    Sale/Kluber will be an interesting window into how the writers feel about DIPS theory.

    Sale has an additional K per 9 over Kluber, but Kluber has a much lower BABIP and thus a lower ERA.
     
  17. Oppo

    Oppo Member SoSH Member

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    983
    Don't think the Kershaw/Scherzer debate is the same as Trout/Altuve, at least not on a pure number of games played basis.

    Kershaw's 26 starts is about 83% of Scherzer's 30.

    Trout's 109 GP is about 74% of Altuve's 148 And 73% of Judge's 150.

    Equivalent games played would be roughly Kershaw down 4 starts to a total of 22 or Trout up 20 GP to 130. (Crude math).

    With that said, I think the voters will go Scherzer/Altuve. Despite Trout having probably his best year, it's an excuse to sneak an MVP to a deserving guy like Altuve. I personally would go Trout, if he was in Houston'a lineup, his countiny stats would be ridiculous.

    Kluber, Judge, Bellinger are forgone conclusions. Stanton vs Goldy should be very close. Probably Goldy unless Stanton finishes strong.
     
  18. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Judge in the 2nd half .223/.383/.528 on a .263 BAbip in 295 PA. 61bb/95k. Still a great line, but if he continues to be a .225 hitter, at some point pitchers will stop walking him and deal with the occasional HR. Although, I do remember reading an article that claimed whether a hitter walks or not is more dependent on the hitter than the pitcher so it may not matter. Judge's walk rate could cut in half and he'd still be Joey Gallo though.
     
  19. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    This is the 'Awards' thread, so future performance isn't really relevant, but your phrasing here makes it seem like he is still slumping, when in fact he is having the best month of his (short) career, .308/.452/.885 on a .275 BABIP (!!) in 104 PAs, 13 HRs in 78 ABs.

    It seems now after the fact that he was having shoulder issues during his slump (and he definitely was using massive ice bags at the time) but he continued to play through it and didn't use it as an excuse (and was still helping the team with the walks/baserunning/defense).
     
  20. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    To be fair, anytime a player is struggling we always use the injury excuse, as long as we like said player. Otherwise he just sucks. Xander must be injured, JBJ too. Judge also clearly not struggling anymore but it's September and it's easy to question the level of competition.

    edit: I think he just went through a normal slump. I mean, the guy has a 1.040+ OPS for the year. The fact the guy put up a .911 OPS in the 2nd half and we're calling it a "slump" speaks volumes.
     
    #20 bosox79, Sep 27, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2017
  21. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Well, no, he did have a massive slump for almost two months, it's just before and after have been so insane that the overall numbers are still superb (and the walks never stopped):

    start of season-July 8 .330/.449/.697 (361 PAs)
    July 9-Sept 2 .178/.338/.337 (204 PAs)
    Sept 3-current .329/479/.957 (96 PAs)
     
  22. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I meant in the sense that it really isn't out of the norm for a player to slump for 204 PA. If you took every player's worse 204 PA stretch out of their seasons, they'd all look considerably better. People act like it's a much bigger sample size than it is. If you think Judge's true talent level is a 1.250 OPS bat, I guess you'd blame injuries. Otherwise, it's just a baseball slump.

    edit: Of course, it could always be both.
     
  23. brandonchristensen

    brandonchristensen mad photochops SoSH Member

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    Still bummed that Sale blew the shoe in Cy Young with a bad month or so.
     
  24. GrandSlamPozo

    GrandSlamPozo lurker

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    The way Kluber's been pitching, he probably would've passed Sale even if Sale didn't tank half of his starts since August.
     
  25. brandonchristensen

    brandonchristensen mad photochops SoSH Member

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    I dunno about that.

    Sales still got great numbers with a garbage month.
     
  26. BigMike

    BigMike Dope Dope

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    20,622
    Sale's Garbage month was a 4.38 ERA. Kluber had a garbage month in April with a 4.19 era. If we remove both guy's worst month it doesn't really change the math at all
     
  27. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    27,096
    Just submitted my IBWAA ballot.

    [​IMG]

    AL MVP was a 2 horse race, though Trout being as close he was is preposterous given the time he missed. Kluber and Sale have had, on the whole, extremely similar seasons, so the tie-breaker for me was Kluber finishing strong while Sale scuffled.

    We talked about this in some detail on Sports & Sorts today in case anyone is interested.

    Edit: Fixed the typo with Hinch's name. Thanks MTG.
     
    #27 Snodgrass'Muff, Sep 29, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2017
  28. brandonchristensen

    brandonchristensen mad photochops SoSH Member

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    13,960
    The timing hurt though. It was painfully obvious as it was happening during a perceivably more
    Important time.
     
  29. Mueller's Twin Grannies

    Mueller's Twin Grannies Member SoSH Member

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    2,283
    I think Altuve wins MVP and Judge is ROY and Hank Aaron. If he's truly for real, he'll have a few years to win it in a horse race with Trout. Cy is Kluber. Kimbrel get the relief Cy, whatever it's called now. Manager of the Year has to be Francona with Girardi and Hinch (Finch, @Snodgrass'Muff ?) in second and third.

    In the senior circuit, Bellinger is ROY, Scherzer gets Cy, Stanton gets MVP and Aaron, and Lovullo, the one that got away, is Manager of the Year. Jansen sounds good for Relief Cy.

    What about Gold Gloves?
     
  30. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Typo. Whoops. That's what I get for trying to get that submitted between getting my kid to bed and passing out last night. :)
     
  31. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    5,983
    Judge and Ramirez are making this interesting at the very least. If somehow the Yankees overtake the Redsox in the standings, I could see that tilting it in favor of Judge. He hit number 52 today. Another 2 big games, and he may not even need that.

    Also, that NL MVP is really anyone's guess if they award it to a player on a playoff team. No one has really had a standout year among them and you'd have to ignore monster seasons from Stanton and Votto so I think they just give it to Giancarlo.
     
  32. drleather2001

    drleather2001 given himself a skunk spot SoSH Member

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    Chris Archer on your CY ballot?
     
  33. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Yep. 5th in the AL in FIP, xFIP and SIERA, 6th in K/BB, 8th in IP, and 5th in fWAR.
     
  34. GrandSlamPozo

    GrandSlamPozo lurker

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    11
    His FIP stats are good, but fangraphs has his hard hit ball percentage at 39.5% (which is tied for the worst in the AL among qualifying pitchers; for reference the league average is 32.2%), so maybe his high ERA and BABIP allowed are more the result of his pitches getting clobbered rather than bad defense or bad luck.
     
  35. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Maybe, or maybe it's a function of giving up more fly balls. His GB/FB% dropped from 1.38 to 1.19, but he also saw gains in IFFB% going from 7.6% to 8.6% last year to this year. And his BABIP was over .300 for the first time in his career. His walk and strikeout rates are within his normal ranges and his HF/FB rate actually came down from last year. So did his HR/9, even if just a little.

    I guess I just don't get why having him in the top 5 in the AL this year is all that questionable. I guess if you are looking at W/L records and ERA, sure. But there are plenty of metrics to support his inclusion with.
     
  36. GrandSlamPozo

    GrandSlamPozo lurker

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    11
    Or it could be because his line drive percentage is up significantly over last year as well. If you're allowing a lot of line drives in addition to hard hit balls of all types, chances are you're giving your opponents a lot of good pitches to hit.

    Also his league leading 15 wild pitches probably doesn't help his case.
     
  37. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    27,096
    Look, I'm not saying you can't make an argument for other pitchers ahead of him. It's a subjective voting system, after all. But IMO, he's more than defensible in the top 5. No where near as good as Kluber or Sale were this year, but being in the mix for the next three spots in the voting is absolutely justified.
     
  38. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    1,730
    If I had a ballot....

    American League
    MVP: Judge. The Astros are a beast team even without Altuve, and even though he's had an incredible year, I think Judge's emergence is by far the biggest single reason why the Yankees are where they are.

    CYA: Kluber. Edges out Sale.

    Rookie: Judge, obviously. In many other years, Benintendi wins it, but not this year.

    National League
    MVP: Arenado. Huge year, more bWAR than Bryant, Blackmon, Rendon, or Goldschmidt. I'd love for Stanton to get it but I think his team's lack of success here hurts.

    CYA: Scherzer. Edges out both Kershaw and Strasburg.

    Rookie: Bellinger. Easy call.
     
  39. BuellMiller

    BuellMiller lurker

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    167
    Doing a very quick search through the former winners and runners-up, it looks like the previous record for delta was 9" between Jimmy Rollins (5'7") and Matt Holliday (6'4") back in 2007, with Pedey over Morneau in 2008 likely second with a 7" listed split (I was surprised Pedey was listed as tall at 5'9" as he is...first thought that was like when the Red Sox used to list Rich Garces at like 220 lbs back in the day)
     
  40. AB in DC

    AB in DC OG Football Writing Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    3,491
    Kimbrel is one of the finalists for AL Reliever of the Year, per MLB.

    The linked article includes a Statcast-based xBA metric I hadn't seen before, but it shows Kimbrel with the best xBA among the nominees.. (Betances is technically ahead of him, which only means that, obviously, this stat doesn't look at walks allowed.)
     
  41. Oppo

    Oppo Member SoSH Member

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    983
    Kimbrel/Jansen have to be the front runners, ya?
     
  42. canderson

    canderson Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    JBJ isn't a finalist for a Glove Glove. Cain, Pillar and Buxton are the three finalists.

    Not fake news.
     
  43. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    967
    Web gem quotient?
     
  44. Oppo

    Oppo Member SoSH Member

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    Kimbrel and Jansen named Relievers of the Year
     
  45. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    9,716
    I know the consensus is Altuve but this side-by-side I stole from reddit really makes it a lot closer to me than I think the public is making it to be.[​IMG]
     
  46. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    967
    Judge's WRC+
    Low leverage: 191
    Medium Leverage: 160
    High Leverage: 107

    Altuve's WRC+
    Low leverage: 154
    Medium Leverage: 173
    High Leverage: 138
     
  47. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Now warming in the bullpen ... the annual "valuable vs best statistics" debate
     
  48. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    One the one hand, Judge has the better stats, and had a fantastic September as his team wrapped up the Wild Card. On the other hand, he had an awful August during which his team fell out of first place and never caught back up. I think he should be the MVP, but won't be.
     
  49. djbayko

    djbayko Member SoSH Member

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    5,131
    Yeah, I think Judge's slump plus the slam-dunk consolation prize or ROY will cause the majority of voters to give it to Altuve.
     
  50. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I think Altuve should get it, his WPA was much higher. I'm not sure if Judge should be punished for his streakiness (how crazy is that that he couldn't hit for two months and still ended up with 52 HRs and led the league in BBs and Rs?) but he definitely had issues at the end of close games against the best relievers.

    Judge 2nd in MVP and Severino 3rd in Cy Young is pretty crazy though, both of those guys didn't win their starting jobs until the end of spring training.
     

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