2016 Top 100 Lists

Snodgrass'Muff

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First up we have BP with their top 101.

Here are the Sox prospects on the list:

7. Yoan Moncada
35. Rafael Devers
46. Andrew Benintendi
73. Anderson Espinoza
98. Michael Kopech

And here are the former Sox:

14: Manuel Margot
56. Javier Guerra

Baseball Prospectus tends to be less high on Sox prospects (at least lately) than Baseball America. Even still, I don't think you can really make a case that anyone from the Sox system who isn't on the list was snubbed.

Margot being at 14 isn't shocking, though is a little higher than I was expecting. Guerra will probably have a lot of variability between the various lists. As I said in the Pipeline thread, Espinoza getting this kind of attention at his age is really phenomenal. If he stays healthy, he should be something special. And Kopech showing up despite his suspension speaks well of his stuff.
 

burstnbloom

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I'm blown away that they have Margot at 14 and Devers at 35. Is there a single other publication that has those two guys switched like that?
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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We'll see over the next few weeks, but it's not an indefensible decision. Margot is much closer to major league ready and draws value from more tools than Devers. Devers has the higher ceiling, but Margot has the higher floor and depending on the methodology, you could justify ranking them in a number of ways.
 

Curll

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They defended Margot at 14 based off of the increased emphasis of defense at the ML level.
 

johnnywayback

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I actually think that Benintendi at 45 is more surprising -- you could definitely look at things such that Margot's high floor and near-readiness at a premium position merit him being above Devers, but I feel like Benintendi would also be higher if that's the way you're choosing to look at things.
 

smastroyin

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A better way to maybe think about it is that Margot already has one elite skill that doesn't need a lot of development (I'm not sure I agree with that but it is what the ranking is based on) while also having some promise in hit base and baserunning. Benintendi we get excited about, but it's only 240 PA from an undersized 20 year old college hitter in A ball.

With the Red Sox needing a bat first OF more than a defense first one, I'm not that upset about the difference even if it is accurate. And of course, the accuracy of these lists is not super great anyway when you get into the details.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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A better way to maybe think about it is that Margot already has one elite skill that doesn't need a lot of development (I'm not sure I agree with that but it is what the ranking is based on). Benintendi we get excited about, but it's only 240 PA from an undersized 20 year old college hitter in A ball.
And has no elite skills. Benintendi is very exciting and does everything well, but he isn't excellent in any individual tool. So I don't really begrudge BP for ranking Margot higher. I mean, these lists, while fun, don't mean a ton at the end of the day anyway.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Red Sox prospects in MLB.com's top-100 prospects for 2016.

#7: Yoan Moncada
#17: Rafael Devers
#25: Andrew Benintendi
#39: Anderson Espinoza
#45: Manuel Margot
#58: Javier Guerra
 
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nvalvo

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And has no elite skills. Benintendi is very exciting and does everything well, but he isn't excellent in any individual tool. So I don't really begrudge BP for ranking Margot higher. I mean, these lists, while fun, don't mean a ton at the end of the day anyway.
He hit more HR for Arkansas last year (20) than some SEC teams; Auburn, for example, hit 16. And that's in 65 games!

He's slowed from that clip in pro ball (11 in 239 PA), but I still think the power is at least close to elite. Certainly that's at least "excellent" power for a 20 year old. If he'd qualified PA-wise, he would have been second in the SAL in SLG and OPS to Roberto Ramos, a 20 year old 1B/DH in the Rockies' system. First in OBP.
 

ALiveH

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4 guys in the top 40 is pretty awesome in the MLB.com list

Arguably Koppech & Johnson could've / should've barely cracked the top-100. Johnson was #40 overall last year on their list and he performed well this year apart from the injury.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Did Johnson lose his "prospect" status?

Our list would be even more impressive if Swihart, Rodriguez, and Owens were still considered prospects.
 

pokey_reese

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KLaw put out his list on ESPN Insider:

#7: Devers
#17: Moncada
#18: Benintendi
#38: Espinoza

(Margot was #25 and Guerra was #34)

Top-heavy, but those four were still enough to get the Sox minor league system ranked 10th overall. Hard to believe that we were one trade away from have 6 top-50 prospects.
 

RIrooter09

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The goal is to field the best major league roster possible as consistently possible. Not to win the prospect ranking war.
It seems like two top 50 prospects could have been put to better use than trading for a 60 inning pitcher being paid the market rate. We may need to trade for another starter at the deadline if Rodriguez and/or Kelly shit the bed, and Buch gets hurt.
 

RIrooter09

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At least wait until they take the field this year to say that. Literally nothing has happened since that trade, in one of the truest definitions of literally.
You're right, it was poor wording on my part. I guess I'm just hating the trade more and more. Trading two top 50 prospects for a "proven closer" just reeks of the sort of outdated thinking that I feared would take hold when Dombrowski came over. Those bullets would probably more useful in a trade at a later date for an every day player or starter.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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... Trading two top 50 prospects for a "proven closer" just reeks of the sort of outdated thinking that I feared would take hold when Dombrowski came over...
We already had these discussions ad nauseum when the trade was made, so I won't try to rehash all of them again here. But the bolded part deserves a response. No, he didn't just trade for a "proven closer" - a term best reserved for those guys who are not particularly good pitchers and have only perceived value based on the saves they garner. Kimbrel is one of the top handful of relief pitchers in the game. He is an elite and young relief arm, not just some guy who can rack up cheap saves protecting 3-run leads. You might not value those 60+ innings much, or the 20+ high leverage innings he'll pitch (plus high leverage innings in the playoffs). But it's disingenuous to suggest that he's not actually excellent at what he does.

Also, what Darnell's Son just said.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Statements like "traded x to pay market rate for a reliever" are meaningless. There is a finite pool of players whose availability staggers based on contract status or CBA generated team control and there are a limited number of roster spots. Never mind that player value varies from team to team based on needs, availability, and how competitive a team expects to be among other factors.

The Kimbrel trade breaks down, at its simplest, as two redundant but valuable prospects and two lottery tickets going to a team that is rebuilding and an elite bullpen arm going to a team expecting to compete that was in need of late inning bullpen help.

It made sense for both sides and is exactly the kind of trade a team like the Sox should be making right now. That Margot and Guerra are showing up in top 100 lists, even fairly high on some, does not make it a bad trade.
 
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Snodgrass'Muff

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BA's top 100 is out. Link.

Moncada 3
Benintendi 15
Devers 18
Espinoza 19
Kopech 89

Former Sox:

Guerra at 52
Margot at 56

Ranking a 17 year old 19th overall is insane. I love it, but it's insane. If anyone was going to do it, it was gonna be BA, though. They love toolsy prospects. This is a fantastic showing overall.

Edit: Organizational rankings are up too. Sox ranked the number 4 system behind the Dodgers, Astros and Braves.
 
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LogansDad

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And to think that they are currently fielding Bogaerts, Betts, and Swihart, all who would have been high on that list a year or two ago.... the last few years have been just awesome for prospect porn for this team.
 

bringbackburks

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And to think that they are currently fielding Bogaerts, Betts, and Swihart, all who would have been high on that list a year or two ago.... the last few years have been just awesome for prospect porn for this team.
To just add a bit to this sentiment, I think the most impressive thing about the performance on this list is that the sox had 7 last year (neither Bogaerts or Betts) and only one, Devers, is a repeat. The attrition also wasn't related to underperformance but rather promotion. The farm essentially reloaded with 4 high end prospects who were either lotto tickets or outside the system a year ago. I'm not saying it's a pattern that can be relied on to occur frequently, but this track record makes it a lot easier to let go of mid-level (compred to the top 4) guys like guerra and margot for top end mlb talent. Who knows what's in store for the farm during the next year, but I'm optomistic there will be couple names being discussed around this time that not many now would have predicted.
 

snowmanny

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Yeah their organizational rankings from 2013-16 have gone 6-2-5-4. Not too shabby.
 

smastroyin

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To just add a bit to this sentiment, I think the most impressive thing about the performance on this list is that the sox had 7 last year (neither Bogaerts or Betts) and only one, Devers, is a repeat. The attrition also wasn't related to underperformance but rather promotion. The farm essentially reloaded with 4 high end prospects who were either lotto tickets or outside the system a year ago. I'm not saying it's a pattern that can be relied on to occur frequently, but this track record makes it a lot easier to let go of mid-level (compred to the top 4) guys like guerra and margot for top end mlb talent. Who knows what's in store for the farm during the next year, but I'm optomistic there will be couple names being discussed around this time that not many now would have predicted.
Well, there is no Moncada on the horizon this time and while they have a decent first round pick, I wouldn't bank on repeating Benintendi. They have a bunch of somewhat interesting Latin American signees but noone like Espinoza. Basabe you might see a leap from. But, mostly, if the system is going to be a top 10 system after graduating Moncada, Devers, and Benintendi (Espinoza is a bit further away) it's going to be because guy whose names we already know have taken significant steps forward - Chavis, Travis, Kopech, Ball, etc. And of course the 2015 draft class could take some steps, too.
 
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Snodgrass'Muff

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To be fair, if we are focusing on how this farm system ranks from year to year and are looking beyond the current quartet, they probably have two years to fill in behind them before we see any of them lose rookie eligibility. Even if there are cups of coffee in 2016 for Benintendi and Moncada, neither is terribly likely to amass enough AB's to not be eligible for these lists next year and Devers and Espinoza are both up to 3 years away. So the 2017 lists are likely to have these four again and 2018 will have Devers and Espinoza to build around.

In other words, it's not hard to see this farm system staying in the top 10 for the foreseeable future. Of course, the most consistent source of talent recently has been the international market and they can't make any big offers this year. Plus, an international draft isn't out of the question in the next CBA, so it's tough to make any serious predictions beyond the immediate future.
 

smastroyin

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I wasn't being unfair. I'm dispelling the idea that we may see top 4 level talent from names we don't recognize in February of 2016. 2015 was unique in signing Moncada, Espinoza coming to America (and people knew who he was anyway), and the Sox hitting the number 7 pick.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Sure, but there is more than one way to build a top 10 system and they have some time to grow current prospects and fill in with new prospects before these four will be likely to come off the list.
 

Pinchrunner#2

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The Kimbrel trade breaks down, at its simplest, as two redundant but valuable prospects (...)

That Margot and Guerra are showing up in top 100 lists, even fairly high on some, does not make it a bad trade.
I still disagree with the part of their redundancy. That has zero effect when evaluing any trade properly. First: What position will they play in MLB? Nobody knows yet (see Betts).
Second: You shouldnt evaluate a trade in any market based on how much coins you have, but on the fair market price.

As a fan it is difficult to build an own opinion, since we are no insiders. But people at fangraphs, ESPN, BA etc made it clear, that from their standpoint it was too high of a price.

Speaking of the top 100 lists and the Red Sox ranks, it once again shows, what Ben Cherington and his staffers were able to accomplish. Hopefully we are still in good shape after a few years of DD. I doubt it though.
 
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smastroyin

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I doubt it too, and I would doubt it even if everyone stayed in place. In 2007 Theo had the 100 million development machine chugging along and then the wheels kind of came off without really a big talent drain (there was some, I'm sure there are people who can details which scouts and cross checkers left at the time) It happens. People seem to think that through the right combination of scouts and front office willingness prospects will just happen. That's demonstrably wrong. Obviously you can keep investing a ton and it increases your number if lottery tickets, but beyond that? There isn't really a magic formula, and with the slotting system there are less lottery tickets you can buy.

However, unless you are really bearish on Bogaerts (either his development or willingness to leave), the Sox are pretty well set for the next 5 years in terms of prospect help:

Majors in 2016:

SS: Bogaerts age 23-27
C1: Swihart age 24-28
C2: Vazquez age 25-29
OF1: Betts age 23-27
OF2: JBJ age 26-30
OF3: Castillo age 28-32
1B: Shaw age 26-30
P1: Rodriguez age 23-27
P2: Owens age 23-27

C+ or better prospects in the system now heading toward Majors within those 5 years.
OF4: Benintendi age 21-25
OF5/2b: Moncada age 21-25
3B: Devers age 19-23
1B: Travis age 23-27
P3: Johnson age 26-30
P4: Kopech age 20-24
P5: Espinoza age 18-22

So even if they aren't a top 10 system for the next 5 years, if they can add just 1 guy a year to the pipeline (nevermind have one of the added guys be a Xander/Mookie level premium guy), they are going to be in good shape regarding pre-FA talent on the roster. Of course, if they make too many "2 premium prospects for 1 premium major leaguer" trades, the pipeline gets a lot shorter. However, while I am sturdily on record against the Kimbrel trade in a vacuum, this was the time to make it. (And as I have stated, with the signing of Price it feels a lot less like a half measure).