2016 Rotation

[Saints Rest]

In the same vein (and triggered by Geoduck's same pining for more things baseball to discuss), I figured it was beyond time to be too early to pencil in the starting rotation.

My guess:
Price (no brainer)
Porcello
Buchholz
Rodriguez
Kelly

Thoughts?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Barring injury, the five pitchers who will open the season in the rotation seem to be givens. The only thing up for debate is the order they'll pitch in.

My guess would be Price, Buchholz, Porcello, Rodriguez, and Kelly.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Farrell has essentially stated that Buccholz will be number 2. For the rest of the rotation I guess the only question would be the 5 starter it will almost certainly be Kelly but Wright and Owens will get a look.

 

[RIrooter09]

Barring injury, the five pitchers who will open the season in the rotation seem to be givens. The only thing up for debate is the order they'll pitch in.

My guess would be Price, Buchholz, Porcello, Rodriguez, and Kelly.

This would be the most likely order IMO.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I'd pitch E-Rod in the #5 slot for the first part of the season to limit his innings a bit. He should only go up to about 160-170 IP.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I'd pitch E-Rod in the #5 slot for the first part of the season to limit his innings a bit. He should only go up to about 160-170 IP.

Why? He pitched exactly 170 innings last year (48.1 in AAA and 121.2 in the majors). I don't see why he'd have any restrictions that couldn't be managed around the all star break or skipping a start here or there. Worrying about broaching 200 seems overly optimistic, IMO.

 

[mwonow]

Why? He pitched exactly 170 innings last year (48.1 in AAA and 121.2 in the majors). I don't see why he'd have any restrictions that couldn't be managed around the all star break or skipping a start here or there. Worrying about broaching 200 seems overly optimistic, IMO.

Also, wouldn't you want to break the lefties up? Or does that not matter?

 

[Saints Rest]

Do people think that Farrell will give Price an extra day rest (due to the off day) before his second start or will they skip the #5 slot in the rotation (whoever that is) for the first time thru?

 

[Byrdbrain]

Assuming all 5 are healthy I would assume he wouldn't skip anyone to start the season.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Knowing the Sox play Toronto in each of the first three weekends of April, and given my desire to avoid stacking LHP in any series against Toronto's bats, I'd go:

4/4 - Price at CLE [Opening Day]
4/5 - off
4/6 - Buchholz at CLE
4/7 - Rodriguez at CLE
4/8 - Porcello at TOR
4/9 - Price at TOR
4/10 Kelly at TOR
4/11 Buchholz vs BAL [Home Opener]
4/12 Rodriguez vs BAL
4/13 Porcello vs BAL
4/14 off
4/15 Price (5 days rest) vs TOR
4/16 Kelly (5) vs TOR
4/17 Buchholz (5) vs TOR
4/18 Rodriguez (5) vs TOR [Patriots Day]

Then it'll continue in that pattern. This places Kelly between the two guys who should be able to go deepest into games most consistently, and inserts Porcello between the two LHSP.

 

[E5 Yaz]

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Boston Red Sox starting left-hander Eduardo Rodriguezwas diagnosed with a subluxation of the patella tendon in his right knee on Sunday morning and will be shut down for 72 hours.
Manager John Farrell said an MRI showed no structural damage to the ligaments and tendons and that Rodriguez is walking without a brace, but added that the pitcher is bothered by swelling and is undergoing treatment.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/47676/farrell-no-structural-damage-to-eduardo-rodriguezs-knee

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Boston Red Sox starting left-hander Eduardo Rodriguezwas diagnosed with a subluxation of the patella tendon in his right knee on Sunday morning and will be shut down for 72 hours.
Manager John Farrell said an MRI showed no structural damage to the ligaments and tendons and that Rodriguez is walking without a brace, but added that the pitcher is bothered by swelling and is undergoing treatment.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/47676/farrell-no-structural-damage-to-eduardo-rodriguezs-knee

Of course ESPN gets it wrong. I'm sure our resident doctors will confirm, but one can't sublux a tendon. It was a subluxation of the patella. Basically his knee cap shifted out of place and, apparently since there was no lingering damage, it popped back in.

I've had this happen a few times...really scary in the moment, but usually within a week or so everything's back to normal. I say usually because I did it enough that one time the patella didn't pop back into place and stayed in place on the side of joint, and I ended up needing surgery to reset it. Not fun. Fortunately, EdRod's got good doctors and trainers who can help him strengthen the muscles and tendons around the patella in order to hopefully prevent that outcome.

 

[Byrdbrain]

To defend ESPN a little bit the Sox original release said that he sublexed the tendon. They later sent out a correction that said he sublexed the patella.
So while they didn't have the latest, and correct, information it was the Sox who screwed it up in the first place.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Brian MacPherson ‏@brianmacp 16s17 seconds ago
Rodriguez injury might change things, but Farrell clearly has lined up his rotation as Price, Buchholz, Rodriguez, Porcello, Kelly.

 

[BuellMiller]

Also, wouldn't you want to break the lefties up? Or does that not matter?

I've always wondered if that matters at all (especially when pretending to be a manager in OOTP or the like). I guess maybe if you can lineup your rotation for the first month, and can see a team that is LH heavy, you might want to be able to get Price and EdRo in 2 out of 3 of the games if they're 1 and 5. But all this takes is an injury or two to mess with this (unless you plan on using Owens/Johnson as a fill-in for the lefty and Wright or other RHP for the righty.

 

[ALiveH]

Since you brought up Wright, I thought I saw a stats study once that showed that facing a knuckleballer messes up hitters timing in the next game. So, it always frustrated me when Wakefield or Wright would start the last game of a series.

 

[Wayapman]

I think the more interesting part of the rotation is the trickle down effect it may have on the bullpen.

We know that Kimbrel, Koji, Taz and Carson are in with most likely 3 spots remaining. One of those spots will go to Ross or Layne as there is no Loogy. But essentially we have 3 spots for the following guys:
Ross
Layne
Hembree
Marmol
Barnes
Workman
Wright
And the loser of the Owens/Kelly sweepstakes

Is there any way they keep 13 pitchers to start? I find it doubtful due to the logjam of position players (mainly C and OF) but there will be some tough decisions to be made by springs end and the fact that Owens can be sent down to help the Sox hold on to more overall assets is working against him. I have a feeling he's really going to have to light up ST in order do force his way into breaking camp with the big club

 

[Chainsaw318]

I would think it is unlikely that Marmol, who signed a minor league deal and Owens, who could still start at AAA, are in the pen if Owens doesn't grab the #5 spot.

Having other lefties and Owens possibly still developing confidence in other pitches makes more sense for AAA.

As far as Workman, Farrell said yesterday that he will not see game action until something like May. He only had TJ in June.

 

[Rasputin]

I think the more interesting part of the rotation is the trickle down effect it may have on the bullpen.

We know that Kimbrel, Koji, Taz and Carson are in with most likely 3 spots remaining. One of those spots will go to Ross or Layne as there is no Loogy. But essentially we have 3 spots for the following guys:

There is a LOOGY and his name is Layne.

I don't see any reason to think Owens is a bullpen candidate. If he's not in the major league rotation--and if the others are healthy, I don't see why he would be--then he's in AAA waiting for someone to get hurt or suck.

Wright, Layne, and Escobar are out of options so if they decide to go with a long man, I think Wright and Lane are pretty close to locks. Escobar will likely make it through the waiver wire. That leaves us looking for a primary lefty and Ross is it. Maybe they don't go with a long man, in which case Elias, Hembree, Marmol and the like have a shot, but Wright is out of options, and he's been fairly effective in the bigs so he's got a good shot at the job regardless.

There just aren't really any interesting roster battles. If everyone is healthy, we can state with a pretty high degree of confidence who the rotation will be, who the bullpen will be, who the everyday lineup will be, and who the bench will be. It's not guaranteed, someone is probably going to get hurt, and there's a little wiggle room, but it looks like a pretty boring spring in terms of roster battles.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

There isn't the log jam that there appears to be in the bullpen, at least not in the sense that they would possibly have to release anyone to make the pieces fit. If they want to maximize resources by keeping as many arms as they can, and everyone (save Workman) is healthy when camp breaks, the Opening Day bullpen will probably be Kimbrel, Uehara, Tazawa, Carson, Layne, Escobar, and Wright. Everyone else is either on a minor league deal, has options, or is headed to the DL. Though I can see a scenario in which Escobar is waived and snuck through to Pawtucket to make room for Ross or maybe Barnes or Elias.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

There is a LOOGY and his name is Layne.

I don't see any reason to think Owens is a bullpen candidate. If he's not in the major league rotation--and if the others are healthy, I don't see why he would be--then he's in AAA waiting for someone to get hurt or suck.

Wright, Layne, and Escobar are out of options so if they decide to go with a long man, I think Wright and Lane are pretty close to locks. Escobar will likely make it through the waiver wire. That leaves us looking for a primary lefty and Ross is it. Maybe they don't go with a long man, in which case Elias, Hembree, Marmol and the like have a shot, but Wright is out of options, and he's been fairly effective in the bigs so he's got a good shot at the job regardless.

There just aren't really any interesting roster battles. If everyone is healthy, we can state with a pretty high degree of confidence who the rotation will be, who the bullpen will be, who the everyday lineup will be, and who the bench will be. It's not guaranteed, someone is probably going to get hurt, and there's a little wiggle room, but it looks like a pretty boring spring in terms of roster battles.

I disagree about Escobar being snuck through waivers. There are too many teams patrolling the waiver wire for castoffs of teams known to over-stock their spring bullpen arms, like the Sox do.

His injuries in 2015 meant that in-game evaluation of him as a bullpen arm didn't happen, so his utility to the Sox is fairly limited. And he seems like the kind of guy that every team has at least one of. Usually though, every team has at least one of them with options.

So I see Escobar maybe being waived by 2-3 different teams this spring, perhaps to end up in Pawtucket on a minor league deal after all, when minor leaguers break camp.

 

[Rasputin]

I disagree about Escobar being snuck through waivers. There are too many teams patrolling the waiver wire for castoffs of teams known to over-stock their spring bullpen arms, like the Sox do.

His injuries in 2015 meant that in-game evaluation of him as a bullpen arm didn't happen, so his utility to the Sox is fairly limited. And he seems like the kind of guy that every team has at least one of. Usually though, every team has at least one of them with options.

So I see Escobar maybe being waived by 2-3 different teams this spring, perhaps to end up in Pawtucket on a minor league deal after all, when minor leaguers break camp.

Sure, he could get claimed, but if he's being waived, it's because he hasn't had a terribly impressive spring which follows an injury riddled and not terribly impressive 2015. Exposing him would probably be a reasonable gamble especially considering Ross, Owens, Johnson, and Elias are all lefties.

 

[Wayapman]

There isn't the log jam that there appears to be in the bullpen, at least not in the sense that they would possibly have to release anyone to make the pieces fit. If they want to maximize resources by keeping as many arms as they can, and everyone (save Workman) is healthy when camp breaks, the Opening Day bullpen will probably be Kimbrel, Uehara, Tazawa, Carson, Layne, Escobar, and Wright. Everyone else is either on a minor league deal, has options, or is headed to the DL. Though I can see a scenario in which Escobar is waived and snuck through to Pawtucket to make room for Ross or maybe Barnes or Elias.

I guess my perception of a logjam is based on my personal preference of Owens being in the rotation and Kelly going to the pen and needing to open that spot for him. I always felt he may be able to harness his stuff better in the pen working for 1-3 innings a la Wade Davis, another touted pitcher with great stuff who never seemed to put it together consistently as a starter.

But when you step back and look at it, that scenario provides less flexibility all around :
-3 lefties in the rotation
-one less roster spot available to hoard ML assets
-Kelly won't be stretched out in the pen, so one less option for starter insurance in the short term, where if Owens is sent down he can be called up and will be ready to start as long as it fits his rest pattern

Of course all of this is based on Edro being healthy

 

[phenweigh]

I think Ross will start the season in the Boston pen unless he somehow shows some unforseen problems in spring training. After a rough start to 2015 that "earned" him a demotion, he was pretty solid for 3.5 months until the end of the season after his return. I'm not saying he'll be a key piece, but he's shown that he's a better than Pawtucket shuttle fodder.

 

[oumbi]

I've always wondered if that matters at all (especially when pretending to be a manager in OOTP or the like). I guess maybe if you can lineup your rotation for the first month, and can see a team that is LH heavy, you might want to be able to get Price and EdRo in 2 out of 3 of the games if they're 1 and 5. But all this takes is an injury or two to mess with this (unless you plan on using Owens/Johnson as a fill-in for the lefty and Wright or other RHP for the righty.

Just to provide some information on your final statement concerning Wright facing RHB, Wright doesn't seem to have a dramatic split based whether a batter is LH or RH. If Wright is effective against both RHB and LHB it would seem to increase his value.

For his career, some quick and simple stats in 26 career big league games (sss applies) show how he did versus:
RHB
PA H HR BB BA K
221 48 8 18 .240 39

LHB
PA H HR BB BA K
234 52 4 22 .246 45

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Sure, he could get claimed, but if he's being waived, it's because he hasn't had a terribly impressive spring which follows an injury riddled and not terribly impressive 2015. Exposing him would probably be a reasonable gamble especially considering Ross, Owens, Johnson, and Elias are all lefties.

Yeah well, I was just sayin.'

By adding both Elias and Jerez to the 40-man roster, the Sox now have 8 other LHP on the 40-man. They're set.

So I'm certainly not losing sleep over whether Escobar could be snuck through waivers successfully, regardless of his performance in spring training. I just think his chances of sneaking through are relatively low, because Theo, Billy, and others probably have an under-paid intern to catch when the Red Sox (among other teams) try to free up a roster spot.

 

[PapaSox]

I'd pitch E-Rod in the #5 slot for the first part of the season to limit his innings a bit. He should only go up to about 160-170 IP.

This seems to be the most likely set up.

 

[Darnell's Son]

There's no reason to limit Eduardo Rodriguez's innings. He pitched 170 innings between Pawtucket and Boston last year, he should have no innings cap.

 

[PapaSox]

There's no reason to limit Eduardo Rodriguez's innings. He pitched 170 innings between Pawtucket and Boston last year, he should have no innings cap.

I agree. I'm for pitching him 5th. Not that concerned that he and Price may pitch back to back during certain series. Just want to give him an opportunity to settle in and to work his game.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Uehara and probably Tazawa are DL risks, so Pawtucket needs a good pool of relief arms in the bank.

 

[chrisfont9]

Price was just on the Rome show and when asked why he chose Boston, he launched into a couple different points about the young talent. Maybe he's said this numerous times already, but it's an interesting insight into a former outsider's view as well as a pitcher's. The Globe was just saying how Dombro was high on Jackie Bradley, and it doesn't sound like a stretch to believe that the outfield defense is a big part of what Price was talking about in his comments. Damn, I can't wait for opening day.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

It must have been incredibly obvious to all the folks standing in the opposite dugout, just how much the revamped Sox OF was the key to pitchers being able to snuff out rallies in the last two months of last season, rather than stoke the flames.

Girardi talked to Edes here, specifically: http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/47355/yankee-manager-joe-girardi-wonders-honey-who-shrunk-the-outfield.

Man, reading that again really makes me hope all three starters can hit enough to stay out there all season. I bet the Sox pitchers hope so, too.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Price was just on the Rome show and when asked why he chose Boston, he launched into a couple different points about the young talent. Maybe he's said this numerous times already, but it's an interesting insight into a former outsider's view as well as a pitcher's. The Globe was just saying how Dombro was high on Jackie Bradley, and it doesn't sound like a stretch to believe that the outfield defense is a big part of what Price was talking about in his comments. Damn, I can't wait for opening day.

There were articles right after they signed him where the ownership talked about this. They spoke about a dinner they had where Price was citing the young talent and players in the minors, even asking what their timetables were.

 

[chrisfont9]

There were articles right after they signed him where the ownership talked about this. They spoke about a dinner they had where Price was citing the young talent and players in the minors, even asking what their timetables were.

Right, thank you.

 

[LogansDad]

I also remember reading some articles (I will try to look them up later this morning, but I am in the process of getting the kids ready for school, but they might be in the Price signing thread) where Detroit and Toronto players were praising him for how much he helped their young pitchers. I really think he is going to be awesome for this team, and I am so very excited for opening day.