2016 NBA Draft

Kliq

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With the Nets giving the Celtics a great chance a the top pick, and the college season tipping off today, it's time to take a look at some of the top prospects for the 2016 NBA Draft.

Skal Labissiere-Freshman-Kentucky-7'0"-216lbs

Labissiere is the near consensus number one going into the college season. At 7 feet he is a great athlete with an impressive 35 inch vertical. He has great defensive instincts and has the potential to be an elite rim protector at the next level.He has good defensive footwork and can pop on the perimeter and can contain smaller players using his length and athleticism. On offense he has a workable post game and a soft release, capable of knocking down 15-20 foot jumpers off of the pick and roll. Labissiere has a smallish wingspan for his size at 7'2" and he is going to have to put on some weight to play at the next level. Scouts really like to compare him to Chris Bosh at age 19.

Ben Simmons-Freshman-LSU-6'10"-239lbs

Australian product is the only real rival to Labissiere for the number one pick heading into the season. Simmons is a sensational athlete, with an over nine foot standing reach, a 42 inch vertical, and according to LSU's Combine numbers, the fastest 3/4 court sprint in DraftExpress' database. His size and athleticism should make him a mismatch as a SF in the NBA and capable of playing PF as well at the next level. He is a very good passer and can slash to the hoop without the ball. His biggest weakness is outside shooting, knocking down only 24% of treys he took in DraftExpress' database, which combines 41 games from International competitions and elite hoop camps. Defensive can sag off of him and it is questionable how he is going to score in the half-court. Awkward release and poor mechanics. Reminds me of Shawn Marion.

Brandon Ingram-Freshman-Duke-6'9"-196lbs

Ingram is slim at 196lbs and will need to add weight, but has great athleticism and a 7'4" wingspan, so he could end up being a great perimeter defender at the SF position in the NBA. Not a particularly talented outside shooter but has pretty good form and could easily add the three point shot to his repertoire soon. Good first step and can get to the line using his great length. Can get lazy on defense and seems to avoid contact on both sides of the floor.
 

Kliq

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It's Kennesaw State, but Ben Simmons with a great highlight filled game, 22-9-6 and today Jay Bilas was asked to compare him to an NBA player and he said LeBron James.

 

gingerbreadmann

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Meanwhile, Labissiere plays only 13 minutes in a win over Duke and arguably gets outplayed by Marshall Plumlee.
 

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Meanwhile the Nets had the audacity to beat the Hawks. What a disaster!
 

Cellar-Door

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Ben Simmons' team is losing by 2 to Marquette at the half, but against the first decent team he's played he looks good.
8/8/4 at the half on 3/5 shooting.

Edit- Finished with 21/19/7, including the go-ahead score. His team then lost as a teammate fouled a guy who made the game winning FTs.
 
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Cellar-Door

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Ben Simmons needs to work on his shot, but he's a ridiculous basketball player.
He has 2 points (0-4 from the floor), but 13 rebounds, 8 assists, 3 STL, 2 BLK.
He might be legitimately both the best rebounder and best passer regardless of position in college basketball.

Edit- His team came back to tie it, headed to overtime.
Simmons' line 4 pts (1-6 shooting), 16 RBD, 10 AST, 3 STL, 3 BLK
Also his teammates are terrible. If they were any good he'd have like 15 AST minimum and an easy win.
Fouled out a minute into the OT.
 
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bowiac

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What's the story behind how Simmons ended up at LSU? Weird choice all else being equal.
 

HomeRunBaker

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What's the story behind how Simmons ended up at LSU? Weird choice all else being equal.
LSU's Assistant Coach played pro ball with Simmons' father and is Ben's godfather so there was a huge connection there.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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What's the story behind how Simmons ended up at LSU? Weird choice all else being equal.
You mean the school where the boosters have rounded up between 15-20 million dollars in a little over a week so they can fire Les Miles and his 78% winning percentage? Not sure what the connection is there.

Seriously, HRB has it, but I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a pay cut to go pro.
 

gingerbreadmann

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Simmons with 43-14-7, 5 steals and 3 blocks tonight against 6-2 North Florida. LSU scored 71 points in the second half and only won by 11. Seems like the game lacked defense but that is still a monster stat line. He shot 15-20 and 13-15 from the stripe.

Dang.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't care if Tyler Ulis is 5'8 145 on a good day.........this kid is Spud Webb who will have a role on the right NBA team. I thought John Wall and Ish Smith were the quickest/fastest 94-foot college players I had ever seen but Ulis is right there with them with better skills than Ish. I'll take him all day running my second unit where opposing backup 1's can't exploit his size.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'd gladly spend one of our 15 second round picks this year on Ulis and stash him in the D League.
 

bowiac

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I've never seen Ulis play, but he has a .340 FG% this season as a sophomore, which he put up against non-conference play. I think there's room for short PGs in this league, but I'm not sure there's room for short PGs who can't shoot, basically no matter how fast.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I've never seen Ulis play, but he has a .340 FG% this season as a sophomore, which he put up against non-conference play. I think there's room for short PGs in this league, but I'm not sure there's room for short PGs who can't shoot, basically no matter how fast.
His TS% was 55% last year and 49% this season. Not exactly Steph Curry but he's been bricking from 3 in over 4 attempts per game this year after shooting them at over 40% last year. His impact on a college game would be enourmous even if he couldn't shoot at all but he can a little bit.
 

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Ainge in the stands in Utah today to see Jakob Poeltl destroy Arizona's 2nd round 7-footer Tarczewski. Ainge has been at a TON of college games this year all over the country.......you don't see GM's as hands-on and personally engaged as Danny. Many send "scouts" and rely on their reports.
 

RedOctober3829

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Ainge in the stands in Utah today to see Jakob Poeltl destroy Arizona's 2nd round 7-footer Tarczewski. Ainge has been at a TON of college games this year all over the country.......you don't see GM's as hands-on and personally engaged as Danny. Many send "scouts" and rely on their reports.
He's at tons of college games every year plus going overseas. As a GM, he works as hard as any scout in the NBA in terms of seeing players.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Still have my fingers crossed that all the cozying up to the Durant family way back when will pay off.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
Ainge in the stands in Utah today to see Jakob Poeltl destroy Arizona's 2nd round 7-footer Tarczewski. Ainge has been at a TON of college games this year all over the country.......you don't see GM's as hands-on and personally engaged as Danny. Many send "scouts" and rely on their reports.

Listening to Ainge and Bob Myers, Golden State's GM, talk about it, those GMs who aren't following their lead will find themselves out of a job, like Billy King. Myers said he trys to be at games as much as possible, and works his schedule to be at as many as he can. But he says he is wasting his time sitting in a hotel in Milwaukee after the Dubs just played them when he can be in North Carolina or New York/New Jersey going to multiple top tier college basketball games a day or weekend.
 

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This brings up a question I have (that seems interesting).....

Assuming that we are only talking "watching the games" and that Ainge or Myers isnt getting (meaningful) 1 on 1 time with a player coach or other insider..... Couldnt this scouting be done via TV?

Scouting seems like a "leftover" from the 40s, 50s and 60s when you had to be there because there wasnt 25 different national Networks and 1 Galaxy wide Network covering everything. Now It would be easy for Ainge to catch EVERY Duke game or EVERY Wisconsin game. Granted you dont get that quality time with the player or insider....but its not like that needs to be done every game.

Ainge and Myers are obviously doing something right....but I wonder if attending college games to "Get a look" at Player X is a bit over blown.

Honet question for the BB Gurus.....
What can you tell in Person that you couldnt see on tape? And with time your most crucial resource, does that advantage (if any) make up for the outlay in time.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This brings up a question I have (that seems interesting).....

Assuming that we are only talking "watching the games" and that Ainge or Myers isnt getting (meaningful) 1 on 1 time with a player coach or other insider..... Couldnt this scouting be done via TV?

Scouting seems like a "leftover" from the 40s, 50s and 60s when you had to be there because there wasnt 25 different national Networks and 1 Galaxy wide Network covering everything. Now It would be easy for Ainge to catch EVERY Duke game or EVERY Wisconsin game. Granted you dont get that quality time with the player or insider....but its not like that needs to be done every game.

Ainge and Myers are obviously doing something right....but I wonder if attending college games to "Get a look" at Player X is a bit over blown.

Honet question for the BB Gurus.....
What can you tell in Person that you couldnt see on tape? And with time your most crucial resource, does that advantage (if any) make up for the outlay in time.
You get to hear from coaches and pick up on any information floating around. Body language on the bench and during timeouts. Off the ball action that isn't caught on television. There is so much more to pick up on sitting in good arena seats than on television plus you get the other information not available in your living room.
 

nighthob

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Plus I'm not sure that Synergy is wired into the college game with the same totality that it's wired into the NBA, meaning that there's likely less availability of advanced video scouting of college players (especially the guys from outside the major programs).
 

ALiveH

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I sat next to an NBA scout at summer league and there's a lot to be picked up in person that doesn't come through on TV. We all know to look for the obvious on-the-court athleticism & skills (on-ball and off-ball) that show up in scouting videos. The guy I was with kept stressing watching how players interact with each other & with coaches / refs / fans during warmups and time-outs. Basically, he wants to see guys who are engaged, supportive & good teammates. Doesn't like bad body language, players who tune out others.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
I assume they pick the player the are scouting and do what baseball scouts do. Focus 100% on what that player does, not on anything else as hard as that may sound. Being able to label a shortstop as someone with a quick first move to the ball can't be determined unless someone is watching him before the ball is hit.
 

RedOctober3829

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I sat next to an NBA scout at summer league and there's a lot to be picked up in person that doesn't come through on TV. We all know to look for the obvious on-the-court athleticism & skills (on-ball and off-ball) that show up in scouting videos. The guy I was with kept stressing watching how players interact with each other & with coaches / refs / fans during warmups and time-outs. Basically, he wants to see guys who are engaged, supportive & good teammates. Doesn't like bad body language, players who tune out others.
I have had contact with several NBA scouts this year. The feeling I get is that they want to be at practice watching what they do there rather than in the games. Practice is where your actual habits come through because no one is really watching.
 

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I have had contact with several NBA scouts this year. The feeling I get is that they want to be at practice watching what they do there rather than in the games. Practice is where your actual habits come through because no one is really watching.
Red, from your talks have you got a sense as to who the consensus 3-5 best prospects are? Ingram and Simmons are obviously 1 and 2 (in some order) but after that it gets very tricky
 

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My personal top ten so far

  1. Brandon Ingram- He needs about 30 pounds or so, but he shoots so well and is surprisingly strong for the size. Way too much upside
  2. Ben Simmons- He hasn't shot as well in college, so I have to knock him down a spot. But can run an offense out of the 4 spot.
  3. Jamal Murray- Combo guard that can score from everywhere on the floor. He's atop my Boston wishlist at the moment.
  4. Kris Dunn- Ridiculous handles, shoots well enough from distance to keep defenses honest.
  5. Jaylen Brown- I'm still skeptical, but he's growing on me. Makes fewer boneheaded plays now than a few months ago. So I think that Stevens can get the best out of him.
  6. Skal Labissiere- Another one that's kept improving. A project to be sure, but it now looks like he's worth the wait after his early season deer in the headlights performance.
  7. Buddy Hield- Defense, shooting, scoring. Not much more you can ask of your two guard. Also, he's a gym rat that's actually improved (you hear the gym rat compliment thrown around about lots of guys, who mysteriously never seem to add to their game, Buddy, on the other hand, has. Point, Buddy.)
  8. Henry Ellenson- Sorry, I have an obligation to cheer for the Marquette guys.
  9. Jakob Poeltl - I don't think he's a great player, but I think he's going to be a rock solid NBA starting center for the next 10-12 years.
  10. Kay Felder- I know he's projected to go in the second round, but in a decade's time when people look back at overall productivity, I think he'll rate out as the 9th-12th best player in this pool.
 

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No Bender? I have no idea about him personally but he seems to be locked in at 3-4 in most mocks.

Some off the radar guys:
Tyler Ulis (IT2)
Chris Boucher (leads NCAA in blocks, has 3 point range, older but not much BB experience)
James Webb (shooting has been off this year, but was 40% plus from 3 last year, long 3&D guy)
Tim Quarterman (inconsistent, but flashes a lot of different tools)
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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One guy I hope the Cs get with one of their many 2nd round picks (don't think he's currently projected to be a first round) is Jake Layman. 6'9"; really improved his defense. He's has a lot of the physical attributes and can shoot (particularly for today's NBA game) but is missing something - and no one really knows what it is. I think he has a chance to put it all together - not a great one but a chance mind you - and it's worth a lottery ticket to see if he can figure it out.
 

nighthob

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No Bender? I have no idea about him personally but he seems to be locked in at 3-4 in most mocks.
Sorry, I should have added the normal disclaimer that I don't include Euros on my list because all I ever get to see of them are highlight reels, and I don't feel comfortable forecasting based on them.
 

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Using nighthob's format, my personal top ten currently:
  1. Brandon Ingram- Fits the Celtics need to a tee, but may take a year or two to put on the 20-30 pounds he'll need to survive in the NBA. KD 2.0?
  2. Ben Simmons- If he can learn to shoot, the sky's the limit. If. He can run point-forward like Lebron but he cannot shoot like him and lacks the killer instinct right now.
  3. Dragan Bender- Ultra-athletic 7-footer, who can shoot from distance. He's not the next Porzingis, but could he be the next Paul George or Toni Kukoc in time?
  4. Jaylen Brown- Ultra-athletic wing with some shooting deficiencies. If he can learn to shoot consistently (and lots of scouts think he can), he could be really good. Reportedly, a high-character kid. Lots of DeMar DeRozen/Jimmy Butler comps.
  5. Kris Dunn- He's the best NBA-type point guard in this draft. I hear lots of John Wall/Gary Payton comps.
  6. Jakob Poeltl - Best center in this draft. He could be a good fit in the middle (both offensively and defensively) for years to come.
  7. Buddy Hield- Age is an issue but his ability to score is not. Reminds me of James Harden (offensively and defensively) but Hield is strictly a SG at the next levelm which reduces his value.
  8. Ivan Rabb- Has a nose for the ball and impresses me every time I watch Cal play. He'll probably need a year to develop but flashes all the skills you need to be Bosh 2.0.
  9. Jamal Murray- Measurables are a concern, as I think he's a tweener. Undersized (arm length, not height) at the two, not athletic enough to play point. Could see him as a sixth-man.
  10. Skal Labissiere- He could use another year in college but will likely take his potential to the NBA (and D-League, for a year). Huge ceiling, but not close to reaching it.
I think the quality drops off pretty quickly after Brown and again after Hield. I don't think there's a ton of difference between having the #11 pick and having the #31 pick this year.
 

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One note on Simmons and his shooting, is that his FT shooting on a decent volume (9 per game, 66.66%) I thought higher actually and looks like it's dropped from 700 early in the season to 600 in the last couple of months.
I generally like to think guys who shoot ~70%+ FT can have an ok shot, which frankly is all he needs. If he's a good shooter, forget about it. Stud.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I know most 19 year olds are going to suck at defense, but every time I watched Simmons this year he looked worse on D than the last time I saw him. I know there are claims of passivity on the offensive end but I see it bear out much more on the other end, where he floats near his man ball-watching and rarely provides any kind of help in the paint even when the play is right there in front of him.

I haven't watched enough college ball to say if I'd rather have Ingram, but I will say that I wouldn't be heartbroken at all to see the C's move up to 2 instead of 1.
 

Bob420

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Simmons has poor form even from the FT line. Elbow out, ball comes across his body. I doubt he becomes a solid shooter without a rebuild or switching to righty.
 

jmm57

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Its scary when you see reports like "Form is bad, but Shawn Marion had some successful years shooting with bad form, so maybe". I have seen that with Simmons a couple places. Its possible, but I wouldn't want to bet on it.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Does someone like Simmons stick with what's got him to be the #1 prospect in the NCAA and then alter his form after being drafted (as to not affect his stock with worse in game performances), or do people think he rides his poor form out until he's forced to adapt?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Does someone like Simmons stick with what's got him to be the #1 prospect in the NCAA and then alter his form after being drafted (as to not affect his stock with worse in game performances), or do people think he rides his poor form out until he's forced to adapt?
Well he really didnt get to where he is due to his jumper. When a player has such a major weakness it is in his best interest to find a way to improve on it to make it passable.

Right now he won't even take perimeter shots but it's the easiest area of the game to improve if he puts in the effort.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Well he really didnt get to where he is due to his jumper. When a player has such a major weakness it is in his best interest to find a way to improve on it to make it passable.

Right now he won't even take perimeter shots but it's the easiest area of the game to improve if he puts in the effort.
I know you have experience playing ball. It feels like tinkering with your shot in basketball during a season could be much more detrimental then, say, adjusting your stance during the season in baseball. It feels like it's a drastic change. You think he should have still fucked with his form in season?
 

HomeRunBaker

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I know you have experience playing ball. It feels like tinkering with your shot in basketball during a season could be much more detrimental then, say, adjusting your stance during the season in baseball. It feels like it's a drastic change. You think he should have still fucked with his form in season?
Not necessarily. Once the season begins you are essentially building off your core abilities you've developed and not working on new ones. It's like the old Larry Legend tales of coming back to camp in the fall after developing/improving one specific skill in the summer.

He definitely should be identifying this as an area to work on as its really the only ball skill that stands out like a sore thumb. I don't know much about his work ethic but the ones who are committed to developing a perimeter shot usually do. It's work and repetition every day to develop this muscle memory and confidence.
 

nighthob

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My ten sleeper picks list. These are guys not altogether on the radar that have the highest upside that I can see, but I'm not willing to put them on my top ten/twenty list (this is my way of saying that Kay Felder is so good that he doesn't belong on this list even though he will probably be avaliable to Boston with one of their early seconds). Also, these aren't necessarily guys that I want Boston to draft as some don't really fit here.

  1. Benjamin Bentil- He's basically just gotten better every single month. He shoots well, and has decent range on the shot. Enough that he should be able to be a modern stretch 4 that can defend out on the perimeter. A lot will depend on how he measures out, but I think that if he returned to school he'd be a guaranteed top 8 in 2017 (unless he's actually like 6'7" in shoes).
  2. Dwayne Bacon- Another player who might have less than ideal measurables. Not highly recruited coming out of high school, really needs to work on the shot, and probably just a SG, even in the new smallball NBA. That being said the shot mechanics aren't broken, he really needs to refine the shot more than rebuild it, and has a motor. The sort of guy that if he kept going back to school would be the Buddy Hield of the 2018 draft.
  3. Malcolm Brogdon- He's little on the old side at 23, but has a long career in front of him as a three and D guy in the NBA. One of those Courtney Lee types, only with fewer mental lapses, that will just keep giving teams that already have their stars in place solid wing play. As an added bonus has enough size and length to give you spot minutes at the SF spot.
  4. Tyler Ulis- If he were built like an NFL running back (like Kay Felder) I'd be tempted to put him on my top 20. As it is I'm not sure he has the size to take a starter's pounding in the NBA. I do think he'll be a great change of pace PG off the bench, though.
  5. Cheik Diallo- An horrific freshman year at Kansas. Rawer than steak tartare, but I am choosing to write off the lost season as a Kansas thing. Kansas views itself as an NBA minor league team and don't seem to waste a lot of time on developing players. If Boston could sign someone like Al Horford in free agency, you'd have a perfect mentoring opportunity for him because Diallo has the physicals to be an NBA terror.
  6. Melo Trimble- On a team that has its stars at other spots Trimble is sort of the ideal supporting cast point guard. Not obtrusive, gets the ball where it needs to be, and doesn't hurt you on either end of the floor.
  7. Brice Johnson- A guy that will reap the benefits of the new smallball era that's been ushered while he was at UNC. Was a rail thin trackthlete when he arrived at UNC, put on around 50-55 pounds, but looked slow when he was playing at 235-240. Played at 225-230 this year and has a lot more bounce. He may not be starter material, but he has a long future ahead of him as a bench depth swing forward.
  8. Wayne Selden- Another guy that should never have set foot in Kansas. He's finally stabilized this year, the threes are finally falling, and the blockheaded plays that marked his unheralded freshman campaign are finally starting to go down. I don't think he's going to ever live up to his high school billing, but as an athletic 6'5" 230lb player with a solid wingspan I think he's going to go a long way as a bench depth swingman.
  9. Malik Newman- Combo guard with less than ideal physicals (not overly strong, not overly long). But that's why he's going to go in the second round. His upside is something like Lou Williams, but that's not a bad get in the middle second.
  10. Tim Quarterman- The other guy at LSU. A long combo guard that shows some promise as an offensive QB. I doubt he ever cracks a starting lineup in the NBA without the assistance of injuries, but he's another guy that I can see having a ten year career in the NBA.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The more I think about this the more I feel as though Ainge and Colangelo use their long working relationship to their advantage and work out a deal to swap picks that nets Philly their starting backcourt next year. Deals are made when both teams get what they want and these two certainly pass the smell test in that regard.

We get a high upside guy in Bender/Simmons at a position of need while the Sixers, who are already overstocked in the frontcourt add Dunn and Avery (plus sweeteners). In the words of Simmons, "Who says no?"

Philly enters the summer with Dunn and Bradley and a frontcourt of Okafor, Embiid, Noel, and Saric with the ability to make the next move for a 3 to further balance the roster. These are precisely the types of moves Colangelo was brought here to complete.

Boston adds a big talent in either player at a position of need and we'll likely have to add a little more but that's ok in the big picture as those pieces are mostly easily replaceable.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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Philly says no.

They didn't tank to draft a 22 year old point guard, and they've consistently taken the highest upside guy available to them since Hinkie took over. If Simmons is there for them, they take Simmons.
 

Bob420

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I am a Sixers fan and obviously have a bias but I dont think there is any way the Sixers trade #1 or #2 pick for the #3 or lower and Bradley/sweeteners. If the Sixers are #3 or #4, I could see a deal being made.