2015 NBA Draft Thread-Choke For Oak?

bowiac

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I don't disagree with any part of that with respect to Smart, but it seems to sell him short of all the same. He's not a good enough ball handler to be a true point guard, but he is good enough to be a plus offensively without major improvement anywhere.
 
I obviously would still make that trade for Cousins, but it's not way out there.
 

Kliq

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I don't know if I really want DeMarcus Cousins on my team. His talent level is undeniable, but can you build a winner with him as your centerpiece? His team's results are pathetic, but it is impossible to analyze where the line is between Cousins' skill level and the Kings suckage as an organization. Some people seem willing to just chuck Cousins' history in the NBA out the window and blame everything bad that has happened to him on the Kings. I think the Kings' organization hasn't helped him at all, but Cousins has a boatload of his own issues that are likely to follow him out of Sacramento. He fights with teammates, he gets frustrated on the court extremely easily, he picks up too many technical and flagrant fouls, can get in streaks where he shoots too many jumpers, loafs on defense and has clashed with every coach he has ever had except for one. You got to do what you got to do to get elite talent, but is this really the player you want to pull the trigger on?
 

jon abbey

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Simmons argued for Boogie as 9th on his NBA trade value list in March, and it's hard to put him much below that IMO. A couple of quotes from that:

"Did you know his rim protection numbers are slightly better than DeAndre Jordan’s numbers this season? And with the spacing that Boogie creates and the numbers he’s putting up, you could absolutely run a world-class offense around him."
 
"Check out these names: Wilt, Kareem, Barkley, Pettit, Duncan and Elgin. That’s the complete list of players, along with Boogie, who averaged 23 and 12 with a 25-plus PER in their fourth and fifth NBA seasons combined. Boogie isn’t THAT good. But he’s really, really good."
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Kliq said:
I don't know if I really want DeMarcus Cousins on my team. His talent level is undeniable, but can you build a winner with him as your centerpiece? His team's results are pathetic, but it is impossible to analyze where the line is between Cousins' skill level and the Kings suckage as an organization. Some people seem willing to just chuck Cousins' history in the NBA out the window and blame everything bad that has happened to him on the Kings. I think the Kings' organization hasn't helped him at all, but Cousins has a boatload of his own issues that are likely to follow him out of Sacramento. He fights with teammates, he gets frustrated on the court extremely easily, he picks up too many technical and flagrant fouls, can get in streaks where he shoots too many jumpers, loafs on defense and has clashed with every coach he has ever had except for one. You got to do what you got to do to get elite talent, but is this really the player you want to pull the trigger on?
 
Boogie's skills are undeniable but, as you point out, his intangibles are too.  However its hard to assess an acquisition of Cousins in isolation - Ainge is clearly looking to do something else, along with this deal, such as Love, Pierce and/or Lopez.  That makes the move a bit more interesting as Cousins D is a great compliment to Love's stretch four capabilities.
 
Furthermore, Boston isn't going to acquire much help in this year's draft and, more importantly they aren't getting a premium free agent until or unless they can get another piece in place.  Cousins may not prove to be an attraction but he certainly is a start and most likely the best option for the C's to become relevant near-term.
 
Its all moot unless the picks are Brooklyn's though.  Randive, despite the Simmons cartoons to the contrary ("Stauskas! Stauskas!...how about Stauskas!") is a smart dude and isn't going to give up Boogie unless he gets a haul in return.  And yes, at this point I move  the top picks to get DeMarcus Cousins but I am always biased in favor of realized potential versus that which could be great (but might not be).
 

jon abbey

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It would be cool if Cousins and Wall could team up somewhere while they're still in their prime, and maybe take a run at the title they didn't get their one year together at Kentucky. 
 

bbc23

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Kliq said:
I don't know if I really want DeMarcus Cousins on my team. His talent level is undeniable, but can you build a winner with him as your centerpiece? His team's results are pathetic, but it is impossible to analyze where the line is between Cousins' skill level and the Kings suckage as an organization. Some people seem willing to just chuck Cousins' history in the NBA out the window and blame everything bad that has happened to him on the Kings. I think the Kings' organization hasn't helped him at all, but Cousins has a boatload of his own issues that are likely to follow him out of Sacramento. He fights with teammates, he gets frustrated on the court extremely easily, he picks up too many technical and flagrant fouls, can get in streaks where he shoots too many jumpers, loafs on defense and has clashed with every coach he has ever had except for one. You got to do what you got to do to get elite talent, but is this really the player you want to pull the trigger on?
Ya this is all just silly.  The team went through 3 head coaches this year with the last one having a history of butting heads with players and seemingly coming in with an agenda against Cousins (Ray Allen/Andre Igoudala/etc).  They were performing very well until Cousins went out with meningitis early on in the season.  Despite this, Cousins overall improved a lot as a player this year, specifically on defense.  Meanwhile, besides Rudy Gay who also had a very good year (and who they are ALSO trying to shop to make room for Rondo apparently) their next best player was Darren Collison (for whom they gave up IT in order to get).  Though it doesn't matter that much, the Kings were 6-17 without Cousins and 23-33 with him 
 
Also,
Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojYahooNBA  1m1 minute ago
Sources: Lakers, Kings exchange framework of trade centered on DeMarcus Cousins today, discussions could intensify Thursday. Story soon.
 

Silent Chief

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I'd be a little bummed if Boogie goes to LA just because I don't want to see LA turn the corner that quickly and I think Boogie has the chance to get his act together and dominate.  I'd much rather LA signs Aldridge at funny money.  That being said, Boogie in LA does have the potential for drama that will keep it interesting. 
 

jon abbey

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I don't think the Lakers are turning anything around too quickly with Byron Scott as their coach. 
 

southshoresoxfan

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I trust Woj but does number 2 and Randle get it done? Thats all the Lakers have. The celts flat out dont have the assets to do it. Smart 16 and Brooklyn picks gets hung up on pretty fast IMO
 

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If Philadelphia isn't interested in Cousins -- he makes far too much sense for them, basketball-wise -- then those flags are pretty red, as far as I'm concerned.
 

jimbobim

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The Nets picks, Smart ,Bradley,  and Sullinger would all likely have to be traded for assets to get Cousins but what if Ainge's plan is to build a Memphis like model 
 
C Cousins 
PF Love
SF Pierce 
SG James Young 
PG Thomas 
 
Lopez 
Kelly O 
 
Offense centered around Cousins and Love surrounded by bit players who work with Stevens offense ? Not the worst idea in the world. 
 

bowiac

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Willie Cauley-Stein is starting to slip pretty close to the Celtics in mock drafts. He would be the dream slight-move-up pick for the Celtics.
 

Cellar-Door

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bowiac said:
Willie Cauley-Stein is starting to slip pretty close to the Celtics in mock drafts. He would be the dream slight-move-up pick for the Celtics.
Of course the only reason he's slipping is people looking at his medical records and crossing him off their boards.
 

bowiac

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Cellar-Door said:
Of course the only reason he's slipping is people looking at his medical records and crossing him off their boards.
Yeah - I'm sympathetic to that, but a top 5 talent is worth taking even a pretty big risk for.
 

oumbi

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What are the rumored issues there?
He had a fracture in his foot and had a pin put in. There were questions about the pin's angle (45 degrees versus 90, don't ask me anything more since I am only citing an article.) But a doctor whom the NBA trusts recently said everything is fine, no pain, completely healed, asymptomatic injury, WCS is good to go now.
 
Perhaps, ala Avery and Sullinger, a non-serious injury pushes a good player to the Celtics.
 
I am going off of memory here, so there are probably somethings I missed.
 

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Devizier said:
If Philadelphia isn't interested in Cousins -- he makes far too much sense for them, basketball-wise -- then those flags are pretty red, as far as I'm concerned.
I don't think this makes sense. Philly has a plan. The plan doesn't involve being a fringe playoff team this year, and Cousins with a coach he doesn't hate (I am 100% certain he'd get along with Brett Brown, the guy is very smart and the right kind of personality for Cousins) would make that roster a fringe playoff team.

If DMC came up next year, or especially the year after, I could see Philly trying to get him.
 

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oumbi said:
He had a fracture in his foot and had a pin put in. There were questions about the pin's angle (45 degrees versus 90, don't ask me anything more since I am only citing an article.) But a doctor whom the NBA trusts recently said everything is fine, no pain, completely healed, asymptomatic injury, WCS is good to go now.
 
Perhaps, ala Avery and Sullinger, a non-serious injury pushes a good player to the Celtics.
 
I am going off of memory here, so there are probably somethings I missed.
 
From what I've been reading the concern is while it's asymptomatic now, a number of doctors think there are problems with the plates etc and it will need corrective surgery eventually, could be a year could be 5 but it'll be 3-6mths when it's done.
Given that teams seem far from sure if he has any offensive ability, a super star defensive switcher with an injury concern could easily slip to the celtics  
 

Devizier

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Blacken said:
I don't think this makes sense. Philly has a plan. The plan doesn't involve being a fringe playoff team this year, and Cousins with a coach he doesn't hate (I am 100% certain he'd get along with Brett Brown, the guy is very smart and the right kind of personality for Cousins) would make that roster a fringe playoff team.

If DMC came up next year, or especially the year after, I could see Philly trying to get him.
 
Discounting your next two years for an imaginary future gain is bad business, and arguably, bad basketball. The Sixers have some good assets, and could acquire Cousins while retaining several more good assets. Now, arguably, a Cousins/Embiid or Cousins/Noel frontcourt doesn't make a ton of sense offensively, but neither does a Noel/Embiid frontcourt.
 

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Cellar-Door said:
Oh Hooray, another big who can't protect the rim. With the added bonus of not stretching the floor.
You wouldn't want Jahlil Okafor on the Celtics?  Sure.  The only person I wouldn't take him over in this draft is Towns.  They need scoring in the low post and Okafor can step in and score 15-20 a night right now.
 

Cellar-Door

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RedOctober3829 said:
You wouldn't want Jahlil Okafor on the Celtics?  Sure.  The only person I wouldn't take him over in this draft is Towns.  They need scoring in the low post and Okafor can step in and score 15-20 a night right now.
At a high cost? No I really wouldn't. He has one exceptional skill, low post scoring. He's a really really terrible defender, he's not that great a rebounder for his size, and he isn't a particularly good passer. I think Okafor more than anyone in the draft you know what you are getting, and that is 20 points in the paint and really bad team defense. That has value, but I don't think I'd want to give up a ton of assets for it. He can't switch off screens, probably the most important part of modern defense, and while interior scoring is nice, it doesn't matter when you get shredded on the other end. What the Celtics need far more than interior scoring is interior defense and a wing who can create shots for himself and others.
 

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I don't know what monster package the Celtics can give the Sixers. Smart 16/18 and a nets 1st? I mean to buy the 3rd pick outright is not cheap. The sixers ahve a lot of picks to play with already (Lakers, Heat, OKC and their own next year already).
Could they punt next year (again) yeah they could leave saric abroad, let Embiid sit a lot next season and see what they think of Smart and see another year of Noel.
 
I don't think Smart 16/18 would be enough (unless Hinkie can line up a 16/18 into the top 10 type magic), and I would expect most Celtics fans to be pretty unhappy with much more than that?
 

Cellar-Door

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LondonSox said:
I don't know what monster package the Celtics can give the Sixers. Smart 16/18 and a nets 1st? I mean to buy the 3rd pick outright is not cheap. The sixers ahve a lot of picks to play with already (Lakers, Heat, OKC and their own next year already).
Could they punt next year (again) yeah they could leave saric abroad, let Embiid sit a lot next season and see what they think of Smart and see another year of Noel.
 
I don't think Smart 16/18 would be enough (unless Hinkie can line up a 16/18 into the top 10 type magic), and I would expect most Celtics fans to be pretty unhappy with much more than that?
I'd have to imagine it would be Smart, 16/28, multiple future 1sts (at least 1 Nets), and maybe another player from the Olynyk/Sullinger/Young group. That's why I wouldn't want to do it for anyone, particularly Okafor. I just think that the only way you give up that kind of package is if you are getting a current or highly likely two way star. (Cousins, a top pick in one of the rare drafts with what looks like a sure thing.)
 

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If the Knicks had any assets, I could see the Sixers happily trading down to 4 if the Lakers take Russell and Okafor is there. 
It wouldn't even shock me if they then traded down to five with the magic. 
 
Of course it wouldn't really shock me if the Sixers pulled off some swap for Cousins too. I have no idea, but I do think that any trade the Sixers do will not be cheap. 
 
I've seen mocks where the sixers take russell, Porzingis, Mudiay and Herzonja. I have no clue and seemingly neither does anyone.The draft starts at the Lakers.
 

Drocca

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
 
Boogie's skills are undeniable but, as you point out, his intangibles are too.  However its hard to assess an acquisition of Cousins in isolation - Ainge is clearly looking to do something else, along with this deal, such as Love, Pierce and/or Lopez.  That makes the move a bit more interesting as Cousins D is a great compliment to Love's stretch four capabilities.
 
Furthermore, Boston isn't going to acquire much help in this year's draft and, more importantly they aren't getting a premium free agent until or unless they can get another piece in place.  Cousins may not prove to be an attraction but he certainly is a start and most likely the best option for the C's to become relevant near-term.
 
Its all moot unless the picks are Brooklyn's though.  Randive, despite the Simmons cartoons to the contrary ("Stauskas! Stauskas!...how about Stauskas!") is a smart dude and isn't going to give up Boogie unless he gets a haul in return.  And yes, at this point I move  the top picks to get DeMarcus Cousins but I am always biased in favor of realized potential versus that which could be great (but might not be).
 
This is such a tremendous post. 
 

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Cellar-Door said:
At a high cost? No I really wouldn't. He has one exceptional skill, low post scoring. He's a really really terrible defender, he's not that great a rebounder for his size, and he isn't a particularly good passer. I think Okafor more than anyone in the draft you know what you are getting, and that is 20 points in the paint and really bad team defense. That has value, but I don't think I'd want to give up a ton of assets for it. He can't switch off screens, probably the most important part of modern defense, and while interior scoring is nice, it doesn't matter when you get shredded on the other end. What the Celtics need far more than interior scoring is interior defense and a wing who can create shots for himself and others.
You've got to have pieces in place to go after the big impact FAs.  Okafor is a piece that will help attract others to come to Boston.  
 

Drocca

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We are, again, getting hung up on player's weaknesses. Okafor will be an excellent NBA player, drawing double teams immediately. He will also be a liability at the end of games, have poor free throw shooting and hurt the team defensively. But he has a ready-made, remarkably high level NBA skill. I want those players every single time, because it is a team game and I trust the front office and coach to construct rosters to fit the strengths and weaknesses of the players they have. 
 

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Drocca said:
We are, again, getting hung up on player's weaknesses. Okafor will be an excellent NBA player, drawing double teams immediately. He will also be a liability at the end of games, have poor free throw shooting and hurt the team defensively. But he has a ready-made, remarkably high level NBA skill. I want those players every single time, because it is a team game and I trust the front office and coach to construct rosters to fit the strengths and weaknesses of the players they have. 
I definitely think he'll be a good maybe even very good NBA player. I just don't think he's the type of player you strip a ton of assets to build around. To me the two hardest types of stars to build around are Centers who can't protect the rim and point guards who can't shoot. If they were in love with Porzingas or Russel for example even though each is probably a much bigger risk it would make more sense to me as I can see how you make an offensively talented C/PF who is a pretty decent rim protector, or a guard who can create his own shot but struggles defensively into a centerpiece of your team. I just can't see a comp for Okafor among stars that teams are built around. what is the last really good team that had a bad defensive center? His upside is probably Healthy Brook Lopez, maybe with slightly better rebounding but also maybe worse defensively? I don't see that as someone you can build a championship contender around. A playoff team? Probably, but not a championship.
 

jon abbey

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Right, the problem with a bad defensive big man like Okafor or Love as a central piece is that you need to play a good defensive big man alongside them, and the league is moving more and more away from playing multiple big men at once.
 

bowiac

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Health aside, I would rather have Cauley-Stein than Okafor for the reasons stated above. It's much hard to work around a poor defensive big man, even if Okafor is a better bet to be at least a rotation player.
 
Put another way, with the caveat that it's obviously too soon to say (etc...), Okafor seems like he's going to have a long career ahead of him playing on 5-8 seeds in the playoffs.
 

Tony C

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Interesting piece in the NYT contradicting common wisdom that late 1st rounders have minimal value: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/25/upshot/why-late-first-round-nba-draft-picks-are-a-bargain.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&abt=0002&abg=0

I like the line, in particular, that evaluators overestimate their skills.
 
 
The N.B.A. is not the only league in which team executives sometimes appear to be overconfident about their ability to distinguish among young prospects.
 
 
This is one of my bottom lines in all drafts. Everyone accepts a degree of uncertainty, but not nearly as much as they should. Obviously there are exceptions when a truly superior talent is available. But I think when there is a scrum at the top, like this year, it behooves teams to trade down with a team that is (overly?) certain about a guy and get other assets in exchange. And, at the middle and end of the 1st round, was interesting data about how flat the success rate is.
 

southshoresoxfan

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bowiac said:
Health aside, I would rather have Cauley-Stein than Okafor for the reasons stated above. It's much hard to work around a poor defensive big man, even if Okafor is a better bet to be at least a rotation player.
 
Put another way, with the caveat that it's obviously too soon to say (etc...), Okafor seems like he's going to have a long career ahead of him playing on 5-8 seeds in the playoffs.
I respectfully disagree. With the way teams sag off anyone with no offensive skill teams would be strapped to keep WCS on the floor during crunch time for the opposite reason of Okafor.

Im always of the school of thought w bigs that defense is 60 percent effort 40 percent skill. Okafors post moves simply dont exist in bigs his age Worst case hes an Al Jefferson type and you pair him w a rim protecting big and you have the memphis model.

Okafor is much better than WCS and its not really close.
 

RedOctober3829

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jon abbey said:
Right, the problem with a bad defensive big man like Okafor or Love as a central piece is that you need to play a good defensive big man alongside them, and the league is moving more and more away from playing multiple big men at once.
He's 19 years old though.  Don't you think that Okafor will have ample time to improve on defense? FWIW, he wasn't asked to do much on defense last year because Duke depended on his offense so much that he needed to stay out of foul trouble.
 

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Sure, Okafor isn't a rim protector, but he can do basically everything else on a basketball court. I mean, Bird wasn't a rim protector either. Neither are a lot of Hall of Famers. It's not an end all be all mission. Okafor is an elite talent well worth backing up a truck for. I can't believe anyone would complain about landing the guy.
 

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ifmanis5 said:
Sure, Okafor isn't a rim protector, but he can do basically everything else on a basketball court. I mean, Bird wasn't a rim protector either. Neither are a lot of Hall of Famers. It's not an end all be all mission. Okafor is an elite talent well worth backing up a truck for. I can't believe anyone would complain about landing the guy.
No, he really can't. It isn't just rim protection, he is a terrible defender at all points of the floor. He can't defend the pick and roll, he can't defend in the midrange, he can't close out shooters, he struggles boxing out for rebounds on the post. Also he's a center not a SF like Bird, you don't expect your SF to defend the paint particularly well. In addition he doesn't stretch the floor on offense and is only a decent offensive rebounder.
If by everything else you mean score in the paint and pass decently then yes, he can do all two of those things, one of them exceptionally well which is why he will deservedly be a top 5 pick, but he has serious flaws.
 

bowiac

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southshoresoxfan said:
I respectfully disagree. With the way teams sag off anyone with no offensive skill teams would be strapped to keep WCS on the floor during crunch time for the opposite reason of Okafor.

Im always of the school of thought w bigs that defense is 60 percent effort 40 percent skill. Okafors post moves simply dont exist in bigs his age Worst case hes an Al Jefferson type and you pair him w a rim protecting big and you have the memphis model.
Even if you're right that defense is mostly effort, it should be troubling that Okafor didn't show much effort in that regard. Why do we think he's going to change in the NBA? Effort is a skill. KG was an all-around talent, but one of his best assets was effort.
 
I agree that Okafor's comparison is Al Jefferson, and that's what worries me. Cauley-Stein has a clearer path to being a key piece on a contender in someone like Tyson Chandler, who as as limited offensively, and isn't as versatile defensively.
 

Drocca

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You have just listed, Cellar, several coachable skills that an athletic talent like Okafor should be able to improve upon. 
 

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southshoresoxfan said:
Sullinger started following the Hornets and Jeremy Lamb just got traded there.

Sully and 16 plus a future pick for Lamb and 9?
 
No thanks.  Heard there were issues with Lamb in OKC.  In Charlotte, he'll be reunited with Kemba Walker.
 

Drocca

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bowiac said:
Even if you're right that defense is mostly effort, it should be troubling that Okafor didn't show much effort in that regard. Why do we think he's going to change in the NBA? Effort is a skill. KG was an all-around talent, but one of his best assets was effort.
 
I agree that Okafor's comparison is Al Jefferson, and that's what worries me. Cauley-Stein has a clearer path to being a key piece on a contender in someone like Tyson Chandler, who as as limited offensively, and isn't as versatile defensively.
 
Sorry for the back-to-back posts, but living here in the Triangle and being immersed in talk-radio land, fans and pundits, the consensus is that Coach K actually asked him to "retreat, and let help come" on defense to keep him in the game. Which is all just to say that the effort part could have been partially due to coaching. He does not have a reputation as a low-effort kind of player.
 
And with all that said, I will be much happier if tonight assets are given up and we receive WCS than Okafor. Tyson Chandler continues to be the easy comp but in this case, I could actually see WCS having a better career (or at least longer prime) than Chandler. 
 
Edit to add - I watch a lot of college basketball and have my whole life. I could be wrong and I'm not a professional scout and this that and the other, but WCS is one of the best defenders I have watched at that level at any position.
 

amfox1

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Cellar-Door said:
If by everything else you mean score in the paint and pass decently then yes, he can do all two of those things, one of them exceptionally well which is why he will deservedly be a top 5 pick, but he has serious flaws.
 
Which player doesn't have serious flaws?  Offensively, I'm sure Brad would space the floor to either get Okafor 1-on-1 in the block or get players open on the perimeter.  Defensively, not sure he makes them worse than they have been.  
 
I do think that if we were to get Okafor, we'd be looking to trade Sullinger and look for a more-defensively oriented 4.
 
I am confused by the WCS is better than Okafor discussion.  I don't think it's close (and I like WCS a lot).
 

Cellar-Door

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Drocca said:
You have just listed, Cellar, several coachable skills that an athletic talent like Okafor should be able to improve upon. 
He's not actually all that athletic, it's one reason he skipped the combine.  A number of people seem to think (among them the draftexpress guys, dean demakis, and to lesser extent Ford) that he lacks the kind of explosiveness and lateral agility to ever be a good or likely even average defender. Sure he could learn to box out (though history suggests he won't, since that's what we say about every poor rebounder and few significantly improve) but his footspeed, agility, jumping and second jump aren't likely to improve much.
 

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amfox1 said:
I am confused by the WCS is better than Okafor discussion.  I don't think it's close (and I like WCS a lot).
Defense is as important as offense. It really is as simple as that. WCS is, apparently, one of the better defensive C prospects to come along, and has the flexibility to switch as necessary (which is increasingly common).
 
This is not entirely dissimilar to Smart vs. Julius Randle last year. I was very much so in the Smart category then, and I'm likewise in the WCS category now. Neither one is a perfect player, but it seems easier to work around WCS's limitations than Okafor's, at least for a good team.
 

bowiac

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I want to add, I don't think it's a slam dunk. Some weak defensive players turn out to be fine, and some excellent college defenders end up struggling to transition. They're pretty close as draft candidates for me (health aside).