2015 NBA Draft Thread-Choke For Oak?
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Agreed. I'm sure Turner is just one of Ainge's options he's targeting if we can move up a few slots relatively cheaply.EL Jeffe said:
Turner is an interesting case. He had problems staying on the floor this year(4.3 fouls per 40 minutes) but his per 40 minutes statistics(18 ppg, 12 reb, 4 blk) are outstanding. I'm not giving up significant assets to move up for him, but would be nice if he was there at 16.
No one should be too upset if they trade #28 to move up a few spots for Danny to get the guy he wants. Whether that guy works out or not, I'd rather give up that late pick to get the guy he wants rather than his fallback option, so if that's Turner, so be it. I wouldn't be thrilled with the pick, and would prefer to give up more to go get WCS, but as long as we aren't dipping into our trove of future 1sts, I'm fine if Turner is their guy and they use 28 to go get him.
The pick that is known to be available is Indiana at 11. It's going to take more than 28 to move up 5 slots. 28 doesn't carry much if any value.....teams regularly look to move out of this pick for contractual reasons which is what the Lakers and Celtics are reportedly looking to do at 27-28 this year.ElcaballitoMVP said:
@ChrisMannixSI: Teams that could realistically trade out of the top-ten on Thursday: New York, Sacramento, Charlotte. Lot of chatter amongst execs right now
More from Mannix' twitter:
Boston has discussed a trade with at least one top-ten team. Described by a rival exec as "aggressive, one of the few teams thinking big."
Boston has discussed a trade with at least one top-ten team. Described by a rival exec as "aggressive, one of the few teams thinking big."
God I would love to get Deangelo Russell if we could get that Knicks pick. I just feel like he is going to be the superstar that ones out of this draft.
@Probballdraft: Still in talks but initially sounds like Kings get 5 pick, Vucevic, & other picks, Magic get 2nd pick & take Okafor, Lakers get Cousins & 6.
I don't think that is insulting. Noel is super super raw, he wasn't much better than Smart last year if any. He was not good at all on Offense, his offensive rebounding number were pretty mediocre/bad especially for the team he was on. He did protect the rim well though.BigSoxFan said:
However, the actual trade mentioned with the #3 involved is TURRRIBLE.
Not sure it is at that. Noel is no Cauley-Stein athletically, he needs to bulk up more and move to the C spot. Smart's ankle injury obviously bothered him most of last year, if he gets healthy I think he's the prototypical new NBA G. And he's the kind of guy that will kill himself to get there.BigSoxFan said:
I think that what likely happened is that Philly tried to get Smart and a pile of picks for Noel as part of a bid on #4 from New York, and Boston countered by asking for #3 in addition to Noel, at which point the conversation ended.
From Sheridan's website's mock draft.
http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2015/06/23/mock-draft-6-0-picks-11-through-20/#u6iBxybEk5YYBBBL.99
2014- Sarictims4wins said:
2013- Len
2012-
2011- Kanter, Valanciunas, Vesely
2010-
2009- Rubio
2008- Gallinari
2007- Noah (they counted him as non-Euro to make the stat work)
2006- Bargnani, Sefolosha
2005- Vazquez, Korolev
2004-Ben Gordon (rightfully excluded as he lived his whole life in the US) Luol Deng (not sure why they excluded him, grew up in England if born in Sudan, plays internationally for England).
2003- Pietrus
2002- TSKITISHVILI
Not sure how they got to 15? I'm guessing they really mean "Players who were playing in Euro leagues" which lets them eliminate some European guys who came to the US for college and add some African players who went to Europe.
On the whole though, looking at that list since 2006 the success rate is actually pretty high. No All-Stars, but of the 8 who came over 7 are/were NBA starters.
Because by Euros, they are saying "guys that didn't go through American colleges". They're not referring to their heritage.
Devizier said:
I don't know, good question how American high school would classify him. I believe Cellar composed that list, so who knows who ESPN had on it. I just think that logically, the point they are trying to make only makes sense if you're discussing the pipeline they took to the NBA and how the competition faced would impact their development. That Deng, Gordon or Noah were born outside the country doesn't really mean much when they moved here and competed in this country to earn their draft status.
It's ESPN, so who knows, but essentially I think they are trying to say that the European leagues that these guys compete in to garner attention and acclaim might not be as predictive as it used to be.
Yeah I noted that they must have meant Euro league players (though that isn't what the actual words they used meant). I mostly just put together the list to see how European guys did, which seems to be quite well. So where the no All-Stars stat alone might make you think Euro guys were a big risk, looking at the actual list shows that Euro guys over the past 10 years hit at a much better rate than US guys.Papelbon's Poutine said:
Going with Euro-League, you add in Biyombo, Jennings, Sene, Biedrins (missed him earlier), Darko (skipped him too), which actually brings it to 18? So assume Jennings didn't count and they didn't count one more (looks like Len since he came here for college). So that is the 16.
If you count Euros who went to American high schools or colleges, then Nowitzki and Pau weren't the first Europeans to be drafted in the lottery. Detlef Schrempf was drafted #8 in the very first lottery year. (And was in fact a three time all star. The Mavericks have good luck with Germans.) So they are obviously excluding those players.
Just starting to get caught up as the draft approaches...
- Minnesota/Towns is the easiest top five pick to project. Towns seems like a good fit for Minnesota, who already has decent options at the wing and guard positions. He projects to me as a LaMarcus Aldridge, a very good offensive player and a underrated defender. I heard someone on the NBA podcast on ESPN mention that they could consider Russell because he would be a PG for the future because Rubio can't shoot and is never healthy. I find that unlikely because that would mean not only putting Rubio in the backseat, but also LaVine, who had a really strong finish to his rookie year.
- The Lakers pick is going to be intriguing. I think Okafor is the second best prospect in the draft (and I could be talked into him being the best) but I don't see how the Lakers pick him and it makes sense, barring a trade. Okafor and Randle play too similarly for a team in 2015 to put them on the floor at the same time. Russell would be the next logical choice, but I don't like LA for him, an alpha dog going onto the same team as THE alpha dog in the NBA, and one that is fading away at that. Plus, Jordan Clarkson had a dynamite rookie season at PG, and so then you might be talking about Russell of the bench, or either him or Kobe playing the 3. The ideal Lakers player would be Towns, but I think he falls off the board at number one, so I wouldn't be surprised if LA trades down a bit and targets WCS, since they need a strong defensive big man.
- If Oakfor slips to the Knicks at four I think that is a total steal for them. During draft time we like to nitpick every prospect to death, and that doesn't bode well for Oakfor whose flaws are much more visible than someone like Towns. As a freshman, he put up a 17-8 with 66% shooting from the floor (including a silly 76% from shots at the rim) and has the most polished post-game of any big man coming into the NBA since when? Tim Duncan? Physically he is just a marvel, 6-11, 270 at age 19. His frame is so enormous that once he gets on a NBA training program, he could bulk up to 290 and still look relatively lean. Defense is the big question with him, but with his work ethic and his physical ability I would gamble on him in a heartbeat.
- Porzingis scares the hell out of me. He seems like the guy GMs fall in love with because of his size and shooting stroke, but I just have no idea how functional of a NBA player he is going to be. I don't know if he is fast enough to hang on defense and against pick and rolls, and that concerns me more then his strength, which can be improved much easier. So far he has looked really good shooting the ball in practice, but it games he hasn't really flashed the range that he does in workouts. He is someone that would scare me if he was picked third, but is a steal if he falls out of the top 5-6.
- I like Kaminsky a lot. At the very least I think he can be Ryan Anderson or Channing Frye. What makes him such an interesting prospect is that not only can he shoot from outside, but he can pass out of the high post and put the ball on the floor and get his own shot. Unlike someone like Oakfor, he can play around the rest of his team. He can space the floor and spot-up for shots, he can make plays from the elbow, or he can get his own shot off. He is at least a mediocre defender, but he is smart and has good length and discipline (unlike Kelly Olynyk).
- I also love Mudiay, he is a terrific athlete with a 6-9 wingspan, he holds so much potential on the defensive end. He has improved his jumper and seems to have a really good work ethic on the basketball court. Draft Express has him going 7th to Denver, which would be a total steal imo.
- Minnesota/Towns is the easiest top five pick to project. Towns seems like a good fit for Minnesota, who already has decent options at the wing and guard positions. He projects to me as a LaMarcus Aldridge, a very good offensive player and a underrated defender. I heard someone on the NBA podcast on ESPN mention that they could consider Russell because he would be a PG for the future because Rubio can't shoot and is never healthy. I find that unlikely because that would mean not only putting Rubio in the backseat, but also LaVine, who had a really strong finish to his rookie year.
- The Lakers pick is going to be intriguing. I think Okafor is the second best prospect in the draft (and I could be talked into him being the best) but I don't see how the Lakers pick him and it makes sense, barring a trade. Okafor and Randle play too similarly for a team in 2015 to put them on the floor at the same time. Russell would be the next logical choice, but I don't like LA for him, an alpha dog going onto the same team as THE alpha dog in the NBA, and one that is fading away at that. Plus, Jordan Clarkson had a dynamite rookie season at PG, and so then you might be talking about Russell of the bench, or either him or Kobe playing the 3. The ideal Lakers player would be Towns, but I think he falls off the board at number one, so I wouldn't be surprised if LA trades down a bit and targets WCS, since they need a strong defensive big man.
- If Oakfor slips to the Knicks at four I think that is a total steal for them. During draft time we like to nitpick every prospect to death, and that doesn't bode well for Oakfor whose flaws are much more visible than someone like Towns. As a freshman, he put up a 17-8 with 66% shooting from the floor (including a silly 76% from shots at the rim) and has the most polished post-game of any big man coming into the NBA since when? Tim Duncan? Physically he is just a marvel, 6-11, 270 at age 19. His frame is so enormous that once he gets on a NBA training program, he could bulk up to 290 and still look relatively lean. Defense is the big question with him, but with his work ethic and his physical ability I would gamble on him in a heartbeat.
- Porzingis scares the hell out of me. He seems like the guy GMs fall in love with because of his size and shooting stroke, but I just have no idea how functional of a NBA player he is going to be. I don't know if he is fast enough to hang on defense and against pick and rolls, and that concerns me more then his strength, which can be improved much easier. So far he has looked really good shooting the ball in practice, but it games he hasn't really flashed the range that he does in workouts. He is someone that would scare me if he was picked third, but is a steal if he falls out of the top 5-6.
- I like Kaminsky a lot. At the very least I think he can be Ryan Anderson or Channing Frye. What makes him such an interesting prospect is that not only can he shoot from outside, but he can pass out of the high post and put the ball on the floor and get his own shot. Unlike someone like Oakfor, he can play around the rest of his team. He can space the floor and spot-up for shots, he can make plays from the elbow, or he can get his own shot off. He is at least a mediocre defender, but he is smart and has good length and discipline (unlike Kelly Olynyk).
- I also love Mudiay, he is a terrific athlete with a 6-9 wingspan, he holds so much potential on the defensive end. He has improved his jumper and seems to have a really good work ethic on the basketball court. Draft Express has him going 7th to Denver, which would be a total steal imo.
I think Okafor is going to be a relative bust given the other guys in the top 5-6. Amazingly polished offensive game for someone so young, but a defensive sieve and he can't shoot FTs. His upside to me seems like Al Jefferson, I would go with Russell at least over him, maybe Mudiay too (I have no idea about Porzingis).
jon abbey said:
I don't like the Jefferson comp that people (not just you) are making, it seems lazy to me. The biggest difference between the two is that Jefferson is a volume scorer from the post and shoots under 50% from the field, while Okafor scores with tremendous efficiency. Okafor is also a better overall athlete than Jefferson was, and is MUCH more advanced at this stage of his career than Jefferson was. I think Jefferson is the floor for Okafor. Defense is going to be an issue, but with his size and strength, I think he can at least be average down the road.
The two things that are going against Okafor that I don't think matter that much are:
1. His lack of athleticism, which is an over-valued attribute for Centers to have. Some of the best big men in the game (Z-Bo, Noah, Gasol, Al Horford, Love) are not top-shelf athletes. Okafor looks bad in these pre-draft workouts but I think he is certainly functionally athletic enough to achieve at the NBA level.
2. His poor FT shooting. Okafor has too much offensive talent to remain a bad FT shooter, and plenty of elite big men coming out of school (Boogie, Blake Griffin) struggled at the line and eventually turned into good FT shooters.
Cellar-Door said:
nighthob said:
Um... Noel is already showing elite defensive skills. His rim protection as a rookie was no joke, his hands are a concern but his offense and rebounding constantly improved all year. His quick hands on d give him blocks/ steals numbers that only players like Shaq and Hakeem have done, let alone as a rookie.
He played the C spot for large chunks of the season and did just fine.
For example http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nerlens-noel-the-other-rookie-of-the-year/
Plus note the rather odd 53% FG% at home and mid thirties on the road. He's not bad offensively and improving, MCW was/is a BAD point guard
Anyway with the 3 it's clearly ridiculous, but you don't trade a young athletic rim protector who is already a good player due to defense TODAY for a point guard like Smart plus two eh picks. There are a lot of good point guards right now.
ESPN's draft coverage will be different this year including a 12-year old fashion analyst. Just what we needed. LINK: http://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/new-look-for-espns-nba-draft-coverage/265580
Bennett has a 5.8 million salary this coming year, then a team option in 16/17 for 7.3 million.
Might be worth the gamble? Kid is still just 22 years old.
Might be worth the gamble? Kid is still just 22 years old.
Most of those high-2nds get guaranteed deals anyway if the team truly commits to them. I do this deal in a heartbeat as you can then beat Philly's 33 and 35 to Portland for their 23......with 31 and 38. There is no way Ainge is looking to add MORE 2nd round picks.....in this swap we essentially take on Bennett's salary and any potential he has to become a rotation player while moving up 5 slots from 28 to 23.moondog80 said:
moondog80 said:
He's now reporting it as 31 and 36, not 38. Your conclusion stands.
It's a question of assuming one year of Bennett and getting rid of a guaranteed contract obligation for two non-guaranteed contracts. One would think you could trade 28 for 31 and 36 without assuming Bennett, but I'm intrigued to see if Brad could make Bennett into a rotation player.
Cauley-Stein stayed in front of guards on pick & roll switches. I agree that Noel looks like he will be a very good defensive center. Willie Cauley-Stein is whole different sort of animal. He can guard all three F spots and switch off onto guards on the pick & roll. So, no, Noel, for all his excellent qualities doesn't have WCS's defensive upside. There's nothing inherently wrong in that. I was objecting to the mischaracterization of Noel as some newfangled 7' Dre' Green. He isn't. And he still needs to bulk up more to play C long term.LondonSox said:
E5 Yaz said:
Well, "multiple future picks" is the key. If it's the Brooklyn picks, that's more than Orlando got for Dwight Howard, or New Orleans for Chris Paul But if it's say, Dallas' pick next year and the C's in 2018 (when they would presume to be good), that's not as good for the Kings.
Any one disagree with this assessment?
Marcus Smart - very good player especially defensively, likely to improve, but offensively limited and not a good enough ball handler to be a true point guard
Jared Sullinger - injury-prone, out of shape, entering last year of rookie deal
Gerald Wallace - JAG, entering last year of deal
#16 - both kind of meh spots to draft from, unless you can combine them to move up
multiple future 1st round picks -- as stated above, Celts' future picks may not be that great
DeMarcus Cousins - 24 years old, elite center potential, has never played on a really good team
Marcus Smart - very good player especially defensively, likely to improve, but offensively limited and not a good enough ball handler to be a true point guard
Jared Sullinger - injury-prone, out of shape, entering last year of rookie deal
Gerald Wallace - JAG, entering last year of deal
#16 - both kind of meh spots to draft from, unless you can combine them to move up
multiple future 1st round picks -- as stated above, Celts' future picks may not be that great
DeMarcus Cousins - 24 years old, elite center potential, has never played on a really good team