2015 Dolphins: Fire the Lazor!

[dwainw]

So the good:

Miami's schedule looks less daunting than it did when it was first released. The Cowboys will have Romo back this week in Miami, but the Colts, Ravens, and Chargers are all much worse than initially anticipated. Miami needs to get hot to have any chance of making the playoffs. 5 of their last 7 games are at home. It's still far-fetched, but certainly not impossible to get that 6th spot.

If 10 wins is required to get the last team in--and Miami better hope it does, because if 9 wins does it they'll most assuredly lose every tiebreaker--then doesn't everything for Dolphins hinge on 1) going 4 - 1 in their remaining conference games--at the very least, and 2) beating the Jets in NY? Hard to see them having a chance without both those things happening. While not technically impossible to pull those things off, considering their pathological habit of committing (or is it emitting) brain farts and digging themselves into huge holes early, it's hard to be optimistic about them having even a slight chance when they're operating with so little margin for error.

That said, the most pleasant surprises to me yesterday were the emergence of an effective run defense and, surprise, surprise, the strong contribution by several non-starters. Who knew their "depth" would turn out to be a strength--if only for a week. The bang-your-head-against-a-wall component of the game: getting abused yet again by a tight end.

 

[sodenj5]

Just in case you needed another reason to love Landry...

 

[Clears Cleaver]

This is complete blow up situation. Starting with the QB, who isn't good enough. He is too slow with reads. Has physical tools, but isn't smart enough to play the position effectively. If the first read isn't there its typically a bad result. The offensive line has no depth. Fox is abominable and Thomas is below average. The defense can't stop the run. that is on the DEs, who suck at sealing the edge, and the LBS, who just suck (yes, I know Misi and Jenkins are hurt). and the CBs are ok (Grimes) and below average (everyone else)

There is little foundation here on which to build. You almost hope they lose out from here to make things clearer. Draft a QB?

 

[sodenj5]

One of the plays I couldn't believe they let happen was the TD to Bryant. I saw it coming from my couch. As soon as I saw a LB matched up on Bryant in the slot, I knew it was a disaster waiting to happen. Sure enough, Hewitt couldn't keep with Bryant and AIkens was late in getting over to bracket him. Easy TD.

I think I'm quickly losing faith in Lazor. He consistently abandons the run, even when it's going well. He calls plays on third down that get 6 yards when they need 10 and 10 yards when they need 15. Part of it is on the offensive line not being able to sustain their blocks for very long, but the other part is they consistently run plays on third that don't produce first downs. It happens all the time.

I have a hard time faulting the defense too much. They were doing a good job containing the Cowboys, but they were gassed by the end of the game because the offense couldn't get them any respite. Just another reason why the ground game is important.

I don't think Miami blows up the roster. On paper, there are a lot of good pieces in place. Tannehill is an adequate QB. He isn't elite. He won't take over a game and carry his team to a win like Brady or Rodgers can do. Think back to the years of musical chairs this organization played at QB. You really want to cut Tannehill loose and start that game over again? Just because you burn a first rounder on a QB doesn't mean you would be getting an improvement. It likely means you would be getting someone that needs a few years just to get to where Tannehill is now. I would much rather see them solidify the O-Line some more with a guard or two and invest in the defense with a MLB and CB or S. The talent on offense is there, they just don't execute consistently. Some of that is on Tannehill. Some is on Lazor. Some is on the O-line. They just aren't good enough or consistent enough to win week in and week out.

 

[Stitch01]

Tannehill is right in that 20th best in the league spot talent wise where he's good enough that he's hard for a team to cut because he's better than journeyman slop but bad enough that unless they build like the 2000 Ravens around him he's never winning anything.

 

[soxfan121]

Cutting Tannehill would create ~$18M in dead money and a negative $6.9M cap hit in 2016 - he ain't getting cut next season unless the Dolphins are run by drooling idiots (and Jeff Ireland has been fired, right? ;-)

Drafting a QB and sitting him for half or a whole season next year, under a new coach who is given time to develop that player would make sense but I highly doubt Ross would consent to such a long-term plan. When you have bad, impatient ownership demanding playoffs every year, it would take a pretty special coach to pull off both. What Jim Harbaugh did a few seasons ago with Alex Smith/Colin Kaepernick would be the model, but it rarely works out that way.

I'd invest heavily in the OL and bring in a coach who runs an offense predicated on play-action and pocket mobility; Bruce Arians might be able to do something with Tannehill, but he's taken. The problem isn't "weapons", it's execution. So build an OL that removes that excuse and find out if the problem is really that Tannehill sucks.

 

[m0ckduck]

Tannehill is right in that 20th best in the league spot talent wise where he's good enough that he's hard for a team to cut because he's better than journeyman slop but bad enough that unless they build like the 2000 Ravens around him he's never winning anything.

Mostly agree, but: you don't have to built the 2000 Ravens, you only have to build the 2015 Cincinnati Bengals. Look where Andy Dalton was last year, and where a massive upgrade in pass-blocking vaulted him and his team to this year.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

Mostly agree, but: you don't have to built the 2000 Ravens, you only have to build the 2015 Cincinnati Bengals. Look where Andy Dalton was last year, and where a massive upgrade in pass-blocking vaulted him and his team to this year.

This is kind of going on a tangent to this thread, but the Bengals' offensive upgrade has been due to getting Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert back who combined to play one quarter last year, as well as a full strength Green who missed a bunch of time. The line is the same as it's always been.

 

[Stitch01]

Mostly agree, but: you don't have to built the 2000 Ravens, you only have to build the 2015 Cincinnati Bengals. Look where Andy Dalton was last year, and where a massive upgrade in pass-blocking vaulted him and his team to this year.

I thought of that comparison, and its a fair one, but I don't think that team can win a Super Bowl either.

 

[pdaj]

Personally, I think the sacks have caught up to Tannehill a bit this season, and he's suffering from PTSD. His rhythm's off, his timing's fucked up, whatever you want to call it. It seems as though there's been only a handful of times Tanny's able to sit back in the pocket it and throw the ball vertically, 10-15+ yards down the field. One time, early in the game, it was there, and Cameron dropped the ball on what would have been a nice diving catch over the middle. On another, RT hit Stills perfectly for the deep TD pass. Unfortunately, these opportunities don't happen often enough.

Dion Jordan and DeVante Parker.

The latter might end up being a true play-maker, but you think another top offensive lineman with one of those picks would make this team better? And how about a linebacker or corner? There's talent on this team, but the glaring holes are considerable.

If Jamar Taylor and Dallas Thomas are starters next year, I'll have zero faith in Tannenbaum and whatever new regime takes over. They're awful.

Like SF121 stated, make protecting Tannehill your #1. Improve the offensive line. It needs to be a team strength. This should probably be addressed with the team's 1st or 2nd pick. From there, add talent/depth to the back-end of this defense, and you have yourself a playoff team.

Let Miller walk, let Matthews walk, and if it's not reasonable (which it probably won't be), let Vernon walk. I'll miss Wake; this was his last season in Miami, too.

I like Miller, but smart playoff teams rarely pay HB good money, especially when they're not elite, or a true duel threat. Let Ajayi and a late pick and/or cheap FA pickup take over the ground game. Can we find our bargain Vereen or (healthy) Dion Lewis? We're good with Landry, Stills, Parker, Cameron, Sims. I'd rather see us add another true TE than devote significant resources to another receiver, which would certainly add to aiding the running game and protecting the QB.

If we're going to making a big FA add this off-season, I'd like to see it at LB/CB/S, while also being addressed in the draft.

This team's not beyond saving. We just need smart decision-making in the off-season (fuck the "big splash!"), and a coach that doesn't have his head up his ass.

 

[mcaqua]

Personally, I think the sacks have caught up to Tannehill a bit this season, and he's suffering from PTSD. His rhythm's off, his timing's fucked up, whatever you want to call it. It seems as though there's been only a handful of times Tanny's able to sit back in the pocket it and throw the ball vertically, 10-15+ yards down the field. One time, early in the game, it was there, and Cameron dropped the ball on what would have been a nice diving catch over the middle. On another, RT hit Stills perfectly for the deep TD pass. Unfortunately, these opportunities don't happen often enough.

Dion Jordan and DeVante Parker.

The latter might end up being a true play-maker, but you think another top offensive lineman with one of those picks would make this team better? And how about a linebacker or corner? There's talent on this team, but the glaring holes are considerable.

If Jamar Taylor and Dallas Thomas are starters next year, I'll have zero faith in Tannenbaum and whatever new regime takes over. They're awful.

Like SF121 stated, make protecting Tannehill your #1. Improve the offensive line. It needs to be a team strength. This should probably be addressed with the team's 1st or 2nd pick. From there, add talent/depth to the back-end of this defense, and you have yourself a playoff team.

Let Miller walk, let Matthews walk, and if it's not reasonable (which it probably won't be), let Vernon walk. I'll miss Wake; this was his last season in Miami, too.

I like Miller, but smart playoff teams rarely pay HB good money, especially when they're not elite, or a true duel threat. Let Ajayi and a late pick and/or cheap FA pickup take over the ground game. Can we find our bargain Vereen or (healthy) Dion Lewis? We're good with Landry, Stills, Parker, Cameron, Sims. I'd rather see us add another true TE than devote significant resources to another receiver, which would certainly add to aiding the running game and protecting the QB.

If we're going to making a big FA add this off-season, I'd like to see it at LB/CB/S, while also being addressed in the draft.

This team's not beyond saving. We just need smart decision-making in the off-season (fuck the "big splash!"), and a coach that doesn't have his head up his ass.

If you go this route, you're letting two of your three best skill position guys walk away from this offense. Sure 'smart playoff teams' might not pay a premium at the RB position, but this is Miami and there's a lot of other things these 'smart playoff teams' are doing that Miami can't or hasn't shown an ability to do (like build a competent offensive line, for starters). I'm not sure the answer to the below average product we've been force fed for the last decade is to create more holes on this roster, but it may be necessary considering how the FO has allocated dollars foolishly at other positions.

I'm not sure we have the makings of a playoff team in 2016, regardless of what the FO is able to accomplish this offseason. I've completely lost faith in Tannehill's ability to lead this offense. He's been horrific this year. He's making the OL look worse than it really is with his total lack of awareness in the pocket. He's still holding onto the ball way too long and if he's not, he's throwing 2-yard crossing patterns on 3rd and 13. He's been atrocious on 3rd down this year overall and has never shown an ability to consistently lead this offense to more than 20 PPG. Its just not good enough.

That said - we're stuck with him for at least 2016. So sure go OL again in the first round as the defensive core continues to decay from negligence.

There's no amount of lipstick you can put on this pig that's going to turn this team into a contender in short order.

 

[sodenj5]

If you go this route, you're letting two of your three best skill position guys walk away from this offense. Sure 'smart playoff teams' might not pay a premium at the RB position, but this is Miami and there's a lot of other things these 'smart playoff teams' are doing that Miami can't or hasn't shown an ability to do (like build a competent offensive line, for starters). I'm not sure the answer to the below average product we've been force fed for the last decade is to create more holes on this roster, but it may be necessary considering how the FO has allocated dollars foolishly at other positions.

I actually think that Miller might be their best offensive weapon, but they have a line that can't block consistently for him and a coordinator that's ready to bail on handing him the ball at the first sign of adversity. Since he's having a "down year" by counting stats, he may not cost an arm and a leg to keep. Ajayi looks good in his limited time, but he's a health red flag and may be better suited as a handcuff for longevity's sake.

I think Matthews leaves, and they roll with Landry, Stills, and Parker, which is still a really good group of receivers on paper, assuming Parker can actually get his foot to 100% and has a full offseason under his belt. It seems like Stills and Tannehill are starting to click. Stills hauled in that beauty from Tannehill, and dropped another last week that probably should have been another long TD.

This team has had a big hole at ILB since they cut both Dansby and Burnett. I wouldn't be opposed to them spending a first or second rounder on a LB and guard, in no particular order. I don't think I can ever unsee Miller catching that screen in the flat, looking like the play was about to go for a big gain, and Dallas Thomas completely whiffing on his block and his defender blows up the screen for no gain yesterday. Again, take their rankings with a grain of salt, but PFF really likes Billy Turner, and I can't recall him outright sucking in the last few weeks. It's possible the light has come on for him finally, and Miami would only need to replace one guard.

 

[mcaqua]

I actually think that Miller might be their best offensive weapon, but they have a line that can't block consistently for him and a coordinator that's ready to bail on handing him the ball at the first sign of adversity. Since he's having a "down year" by counting stats, he may not cost an arm and a leg to keep. Ajayi looks good in his limited time, but he's a health red flag and may be better suited as a handcuff for longevity's sake.

I think Matthews leaves, and they roll with Landry, Stills, and Parker, which is still a really good group of receivers on paper, assuming Parker can actually get his foot to 100% and has a full offseason under his belt. It seems like Stills and Tannehill are starting to click. Stills hauled in that beauty from Tannehill, and dropped another last week that probably should have been another long TD.

This team has had a big hole at ILB since they cut both Dansby and Burnett. I wouldn't be opposed to them spending a first or second rounder on a LB and guard, in no particular order. I don't think I can ever unsee Miller catching that screen in the flat, looking like the play was about to go for a big gain, and Dallas Thomas completely whiffing on his block and his defender blows up the screen for no gain yesterday. Again, take their rankings with a grain of salt, but PFF really likes Billy Turner, and I can't recall him outright sucking in the last few weeks. It's possible the light has come on for him finally, and Miami would only need to replace one guard.

I'm not sure how you're putting Tannehill in the best position to succeed by effectively neutering his weapons. What's being proposed is to let Miller and Matthews walk and replace their production with two rookies (who both happen to also share something else in common: massive red flags in their medical histories). That just seems insane to me.

I'd also contend that a skill position group of Landry, Parker, Stills, Cameron, Sims and Ajayi is not only not really good, but probably below average in comparison to the rest of the league. Average, at best (at least until those rookies prove their mettle).

 

[sodenj5]

I'm not sure how you're putting Tannehill in the best position to succeed by effectively neutering his weapons. What's being proposed is to let Miller and Matthews walk and replace their production with two rookies (who both happen to also share something else in common: massive red flags in their medical histories). That just seems insane to me.

I'd also contend that a skill position group of Landry, Parker, Stills, Cameron, Sims and Ajayi is not only not really good, but probably below average in comparison to the rest of the league. Average, at best (at least until those rookies prove their mettle).

I'm suggesting they keep Miller and let Matthews walk because they have a first round draft pick that SHOULD be able to replace him. Obviously, that might not pan out, but when you allocate your dollars in the fashion Miami has, you have to make tough decisions. I would much rather keep Miller, who flashes elite potential and has a slightly longer track record of success than Matthews does, despite the position of HB being devalued across the league.

Miami has depth at WR, and turning the running game over to Ajayi and Damian Williams and a later draft pick doesn't sound exceptionally appetizing to me. Miller and Ajayi seem like they could work well together in tandem if they can get a coordinator that will hand them the ball and a line that can open holes for them. Jason Fox is awful. Get well soon Ju'wuan.

 

[soxfan121]

I could not disagree more. There is no reason to spend money or draft capital on the RB position at all, ever, in today's NFL. Re-signing Miller would be a negative step for Miami.

The Pats fan in me hopes Hickey/Tannenbaum/Whomever is dumb enough to do it. ;-)

 

[sodenj5]

I could not disagree more. There is no reason to spend money or draft capital on the RB position at all, ever, in today's NFL. Re-signing Miller would be a negative step for Miami.

The Pats fan in me hopes Hickey/Tannenbaum/Whomever is dumb enough to do it. ;-)

I think that's a little easier to say when the best player on your team happens to be a future hall of fame quarterback that elevates the play of everyone around him and is able to mask the deficiencies of the team around him. Tannehill is not that guy and he needs a good supporting cast around him to be successful. Miller has a legitimate case as the Dolphins best offensive player.

RB is clearly a volatile position in terms of health and production year to year. Very few are able to consistently churn out yards year-to-year. Teams can get guys in the later rounds that produce, there's tons of examples. Miller was a 4th round pick himself. For every AP or Gurley there are 4 or 5 Trent Richardsons or Melvin Gordons.

I don't really know what his market will look like, but if they can get away with paying him Shane Vereen/CJ Spiller money, I would rather pay the 4 million dollars to Miller than Matthews.

 

[soxfan121]

Adrian Peterson is the best RB of his generation. What, precisely, has he done for team success? What run-first team has done jack or shit in the past five seasons of the NFL? What has Todd Gurley done for the Rams? As you ID, for each one of those guys there's a ton of wasted picks and money at the RB position. RBs - even generational talents - are not worthwhile resources. You can get 85-90% of Peterson/Gurley from the scrap heap/UDFA pile every season. Thomas Rawls or Marshawn Lynch? CJ Anderson or Montee Ball? I can go on, and on.

It would be much smarter for Miami to spend $4M on an offensive lineman who can help both Tannehill AND a late-round/UDFA RB.

And Lamar Miller does NOT have a case as Miami's best offensive player as long as Jarvis Landry is still breathing and under contract. Miller's not even in the top five. Pouncey, Albert, James, and Cameron are all indisputably more important to the future success of the team.

 

[j44thor]

Did you really just say it is indisputable that Jordan Cameron is more important than Lamar Miller to MIA success? As the preeminent leader of the "show your work" fan club I'd love to see you show your work on this one. From what I can gather Cameron is at best an after thought in MIA having caught 2 or fewer passes in 5 straight games. I'm not sure what MIA would be missing without his 23 rec for 289 yds and 2 TDs this season. This coming from a pass catching TE that offers nothing in the blocking dept.

Miller has more rec, yds and equal TD's just as a receiver to the immortal Jordan Cameron. In this instance I"m afraid you are dead wrong.

 

[sodenj5]

Did you really just say it is indisputable that Jordan Cameron is more important than Lamar Miller to MIA success? As the preeminent leader of the "show your work" fan club I'd love to see you show your work on this one. From what I can gather Cameron is at best an after thought in MIA having caught 2 or fewer passes in 5 straight games. I'm not sure what MIA would be missing without his 23 rec for 289 yds and 2 TDs this season. This coming from a pass catching TE that offers nothing in the blocking dept.

Miller has more rec, yds and equal TD's just as a receiver to the immortal Jordan Cameron. In this instance I"m afraid you are dead wrong.

I'm probably the biggest Landry fan in New England, but Landry has a -3.1% DVOA and Miller has a 16.0%.

 

[mcaqua]

What run-first team has done jack or shit in the past five seasons of the NFL?

Isn't one of them currently undefeated?

And Lamar Miller does NOT have a case as Miami's best offensive player as long as Jarvis Landry is still breathing and under contract. Miller's not even in the top five. Pouncey, Albert, James, and Cameron are all indisputably more important to the future success of the team.

The discussion was centered around skill position guys. I'll give you Landry, good player (might be a touch overrated though). But Cameron? Cameron has been awful.

Either way, I agree with your larger point that RBs are fungible. I just don't trust this FO to be able to adequately fill the hole opened up by his departure. I mean, for the love of god, we were subjected to four years of Daniel Thomas. Basically, I half expect this team to make the wrong call every time they're confronted with a personnel decision.

 

[soxfan121]

Did you really just say it is indisputable that Jordan Cameron is more important than Lamar Miller to MIA success? As the preeminent leader of the "show your work" fan club I'd love to see you show your work on this one.

Read more better, Zoolander. And it'll help if you go back to the first post, which included what kind of coach/offensive system Miami should consider using in the future.

Pouncey, Albert, James, and Cameron are all indisputably more important to the future success of the team.

I'm probably the biggest Landry fan in New England, but Landry has a -3.1% DVOA and Miller has a 16.0%.

I'm not going down the stats rabbit hole with you, but I will say that I read this thread and your posts in particular, and I notice quite a bit of frustration with the play calling and usage of players and I'll ask if maybe, just maybe, the stats are ... not a good reflection of what actually happens.

What do your eyeballs tell you? And if you had to choose one, without access to the black-box stats - who ya got? I'm betting Landry.

Isn't one of them currently undefeated?

Sure, but the QB is responsible for most of that run-first success, right? Well, that and the defense.

 

[sodenj5]

I'm not going down the stats rabbit hole with you, but I will say that I read this thread and your posts in particular, and I notice quite a bit of frustration with the play calling and usage of players and I'll ask if maybe, just maybe, the stats are ... not a good reflection of what actually happens.

What do your eyeballs tell you? And if you had to choose one, without access to the black-box stats - who ya got? I'm betting Landry.

DVOA is a value/play rate stat. A lot of Landry's value comes from the high volume of catches and touches that he gets in the offense, so his DVOA would likely be lower than Miller's in most scenarios. DYAR is more or less a total value counting stat, and Miller bests Landry 108 to 69. Miller's value to the team would likely be much, much higher if he consistently got carries and touches that other top RBs get.

If I didn't have access to advanced statistics, my eyes would probably lead me to ask why the heck are they not getting the guy who was averaging over 6 yards/carry in that game and ripped off a big run outside the ball more?

 

[j44thor]

And Lamar Miller does NOT have a case as Miami's best offensive player as long as Jarvis Landry is still breathing and under contract. Miller's not even in the top five. Pouncey, Albert, James, and Cameron are all indisputably more important to the future success of the team.

Where is my reading comprehension failing me exactly. If you are claiming something is INDISPUTABLE despite every stat (advanced, rate, counting, DVOA etc.) saying quite the opposite then I'm genuinely asking how you can state that so emphatically. This is exactly the type of post that you jump on members for making without anything to back them up. You ought to hold yourself to the same standards you hold everyone else.

 

[soxfan121]

DVOA is a value/play rate stat. A lot of Landry's value comes from the high volume of catches and touches that he gets in the offense, so his DVOA would likely be lower than Miller's in most scenarios. DYAR is more or less a total value counting stat, and Miller bests Landry 108 to 69. Miller's value to the team would likely be much, much higher if he consistently got carries and touches that other top RBs get.

If I didn't have access to advanced statistics, my eyes would probably lead me to ask why the heck are they not getting the guy who was averaging over 6 yards/carry in that game and ripped off a big run outside the ball more?

I guess we'll agree to disagree because "advanced statistics" in football are by and large, horseshit. At least you're citing FO - who aren't completely FOS - and not PFF who are completely, and utterly, FOS.

Every time I watch the Dolphins, I come away thinking Landry is far and away their most important offensive player and Miller is ... a fungible, replaceable part.

I think any team that sinks resources into a RB is foolish; the recent track record of second contracts for RBs is not good; they age in dog years and fall off a cliff; and the rules/changes in the game have made RBs even more disposable than ever. You can literally get Dion Lewis, Thomas Rawls, Devonta Freeman, Chris Ivory, Latavius Murray, Justin Forsett, or LeGarrette Blount from off the street or in the later rounds of the draft. If the team scouting operation is at all good, you can find a running back to replicate Miller - who was himself a 4th round pick.

The idea that a team like the Dolphins should tie up cap space in an extension for a guy who isn't an elite talent - at the expense of using that money on a guy to block for the QB or the next RB - is just ludacrisp to me.

 

[soxfan121]

edit: nevermind

 

[CaptainLaddie]

The only thing I've been more wrong about on this board was saying Matthew Slater couldn't possibly be a Special Teams only pick.

Holy shit, what a dumpster fire.

 

[jsinger121]

Quinton Coples claimed by the dolphins.

 

[pdaj]

I like Miller as a player, but when you're paying your QB and LT very good money, and you have the highest paid C and DT in the league, you need to find bargains to fill starting roles. RB is, by far, one of the easiest positions to do this with. Scout well, invest a late round pick or two, and spend Miller's money elsewhere. O-line, LB, CB/S, and overall team depth. Tough, blue collar players.

I strongly believe that doing this, AND, finding the right coach to teach smart, situational football will return this franchise to the playoffs. We currently play some of the stupidest football I've ever seen played in South Florida. Enough is enough.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

Its very enjoyable to spend a sunday and not watch football. at all. I saw the score was 21-0 and tweet that Miami is 0-20 on third down vs Jets.

I think its clear, even without watching, that Tannehill is not a good QB. He never will be unless he never gets blitzed, gets pressured, has to face third down or gets into the red zone. The new coach along with tannenbaum needs to rebuild the o-line, d-line, linebackers, find one or two starting CB. and develop depth. Oh, and find a new QB that will be ready in 2017 when all this rebuilding might show benefit

 

[Norm loves Vera]

Sounds like the locker room is just as chaotic as it is on the field:

"I'm told [Suh] told them: 'I run this defense, I'm going to be here for the next five years, there is no guarantee any of you will be as well. Only a handful of guys are good enough to play with me right now,'" Rapoport said, via NFL.com.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25394175/report-suh-told-teammates-theyre-not-good-enough-to-play-with-him

 

[EricFeczko]

I guess we'll agree to disagree because "advanced statistics" in football are by and large, horseshit. At least you're citing FO - who aren't completely FOS - and not PFF who are completely, and utterly, FOS.

Every time I watch the Dolphins, I come away thinking Landry is far and away their most important offensive player and Miller is ... a fungible, replaceable part.

I think any team that sinks resources into a RB is foolish; the recent track record of second contracts for RBs is not good; they age in dog years and fall off a cliff; and the rules/changes in the game have made RBs even more disposable than ever. You can literally get Dion Lewis, Thomas Rawls, Devonta Freeman, Chris Ivory, Latavius Murray, Justin Forsett, or LeGarrette Blount from off the street or in the later rounds of the draft. If the team scouting operation is at all good, you can find a running back to replicate Miller - who was himself a 4th round pick.

The idea that a team like the Dolphins should tie up cap space in an extension for a guy who isn't an elite talent - at the expense of using that money on a guy to block for the QB or the next RB - is just ludacrisp to me.

Amusingly the "advanced football statistics" are consistent with your analysis here. For yards/attempts, the standard deviation among RB's is ~0.5 yards over the past 5 seasons on a mean of ~4. In other words, 75 percent of RBs are somewhere between 3.5 and 4.5 Y/A in a year. Over 200 attempts (the average number of attempts for a single RB in a given year; most teams employ two RBs that split carries), the difference between the 25th percentile worst RB and 75th percentile best RB is about 200 yards.
The big difference in yardage is driven by coaching strategy in terms of RB usage; the average number of team RB attempts is about 25 per game, and the standard deviation is about 3 attempts. The average number of individual RB attempts is about 12 per game, but the standard deviation is close to 4 attempts. In other words, 75 percent of teams run the ball 22-28 times in a game, however, 75 percent of RBs run the ball 8-16 times in a game. Teams with single-down backs are going to run more and have a larger volume of production borne by a single RB. This leads to greater variability in total yardage among individual RBs, which is largely useless for prediction, than in efficiency.

Not surprisingly, teams show similar levels of efficiency relative to individual RBs (~4.1 +/- 0.5 yard per attempt), but much greater variation in total yardage (110 +/- 20 yds/game). Again, it is more likely that this discrepancy reflects differences in strategy more than variation in degree of talent.

Of course, RB's are increasingly used more in the passing game (e.g. Shane Vereen), however, those flexible RB types can be had cheaply.

 

[sodenj5]

Well, this is probably one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory. That's really saying something. At least DeVante Parker showed flashes that he may not be a total bust? I don't know, I'm really scraping the bottom of the barrel here.

The offense is infuriating to watch at times. On second and goal from the 5, they throw a two yard flare to Dion Sims who is immediately gang tackled by two Jets. Fouts is literally baffled. He hit the nail on the head when he said why are you not throwing into the end zone so that when its caught, it's an undisputed TD? It's asking way too much of a TE to catch and make someone miss and score in the red zone like that. I really liked Lazor at one point, but his constant desertion of the run game, and the passing concepts and play calling on third down are just plain bad.

 

[jsinger121]

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 3m3 minutes ago
The #Dolphins have fired OC Bill Lazor, source said (as @ThayerEvansSI reported). Massive changes on the way.

 

[sodenj5]

And just like that, Bill Lazor has been fired. I can breathe again.

So the hit list has been:

Joe Philbin
Kevin Coyle
Bill Lazor

How often has a HC, OC, and DC been fired in the same season?

 

[mcaqua]

Its about time. It really feels like the teams that have had multiple opportunities to game plan against this offense have figured something out. Even accounting for the three garbage time touchdowns yesterday afternoon, they've been outscored by 103 points in 5 games. Certainly feels like the book got out on how to defend against Lazor's offense and he was never able to counter with an adjustment of his own.

 

[Rice14]

It's about time. The Dolphins are 6th in the league at 4.6 yards per rush, yet dead last in rushing attempts. They don't have the personnel to pass the ball nearly as much as they do. They had 9 rushing attempts yesterday.

 

[mcaqua]

It's about time. The Dolphins are 6th in the league at 4.6 yards per rush, yet dead last in rushing attempts. They don't have the personnel to pass the ball nearly as much as they do. They had 9 rushing attempts yesterday.

Tannehill threw the ball 58 times. Miller had 5 carries. Now granted the game ceased to be competitive relatively early on, but Lazor has led a terribly unbalanced offense for a couple of years now.

Its a step in the right direction, but I don't expect to see any immediate dividends considering Zac Taylor is taking over OC duties. Taylor's resume basically consists of being Mike Sherman's son-in-law and nothing else. He might be less qualified for the OC role than the guy we're running out there at HC.

You would be hard pressed to put together a worse coaching staff than the one that was assembled by this organization in September. Just atrocious.

 

[Rice14]

Tannehill threw the ball 58 times. Miller had 5 carries. Now granted the game ceased to be competitive relatively early on, but Lazor has led a terribly unbalanced offense for a couple of years now.

Its a step in the right direction, but I don't expect to see any immediate dividends considering Zac Taylor is taking over OC duties. Taylor's resume basically consists of being Mike Sherman's son-in-law and nothing else. He might be less qualified for the OC role than the guy we're running out there at HC.

You would be hard pressed to put together a worse coaching staff than the one that was assembled by this organization in September. Just atrocious.

The Dolphins ran

8 plays while score was 0-0
17 plays while score was 7-0
6 plays while score was 14-0

So, 31 plays when game was still within reasonable reach. Of those 31 plays, they had six rushing attempts. Even worse, one of those attempts was on 3rd and 25 when they were just preparing to punt and another was a one play possession just before halftime. Essentially, they had four rushing attempts on 29 plays while the game was still competitive.

Granted, those four rushes went for -1,1,1, and no gain, but that's still way too early to bail on the running game, especially when you have a shaky QB and a leaky offensive line.

 

[sodenj5]

Its about time. It really feels like the teams that have had multiple opportunities to game plan against this offense have figured something out. Even accounting for the three garbage time touchdowns yesterday afternoon, they've been outscored by 103 points in 5 games. Certainly feels like the book got out on how to defend against Lazor's offense and he was never able to counter with an adjustment of his own.

I'm not sure if it's been discussed here or not, but another big thing in the Lazor offense is he didn't allow Tannehill to audible out of bad plays. Tannehill usually had an option of some sort within the play, but he couldn't change out of a bad play call based on what the defense was showing him.

The defense picked up noticeably once Coyle was removed. It'll be interesting to see what happens with Taylor calling plays now. He reiterated today during his press conference that they're going to commit to running the ball. Lazor did that for all of one game once Campbell took over.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

On the bright side, the cupboard is now pretty much clear to bring on a new coaching staff once the season ends.

So there's that.

 

[smastroyin]

The thing is, I don't see any evidence that Ross actually is learning anything. He couldn't bear to deal with firing Ireland at the same time they got rid of Sporano so Ireland got to make two more years of personnel based on his philosophy, which wasn't necessarily working, and then have that talent work with another head coach...and then he kept that head coach even after he got rid of Ireland even though there was no evidence the head coach had any business being a head coach in the NFL.

I don't think Tannenbaum is the savior, either, but at least commit to something and if it doesn't work out, move on one year too early rather than two years too late.

 

[mcaqua]

Just wanted to come here and quickly post a nice hearty fuck you to Brent Grimes - who decided to straight dog it on that Buck Allen catch and run for the score.

A seriously disgusting effort.

 

[sodenj5]

 

[sodenj5]

MNF in a game that's largely meaningless for Miami, but critical for the Giants. The thought of Grimes singles up on Odell scares me after seeing him get beat up by a few different receivers this year. He needs help over the top.

Hopefully Miami sticks to their run-first philosophy and they feed Miller early and often.

 

[tims4wins]

Are you Dolphins fans rooting for losses for better draft position at this point, or just want to see them win as many as possible?

 

[sodenj5]

Are you Dolphins fans rooting for losses for better draft position at this point, or just want to see them win as many as possible?

Logically, Dolphins fans should be rooting for them to lose out. There's really nothing to gain at this point by them winning, other than them proving they're a mediocre team instead of a bad team.

Not only that, but I think winning out means they may consider keeping Campbell as their head coach. I like Campbell, and I think he may be a good head coach at some point, but he isn't ready to be the head coach of a playoff caliber football team, which is what Miami is aiming to be. He's still very green, and I don't think Ross is going to want to wait for a few years while he learns the nuances of coaching.

I think they need a clean break, and they need an experienced head coach to come in an assemble his staff however he sees fit.

 

[tims4wins]

Logically, Dolphins fans should be rooting for them to lose out. There's really nothing to gain at this point by them winning, other than them proving they're a mediocre team instead of a bad team.

Not only that, but I think winning out means they may consider keeping Campbell as their head coach. I like Campbell, and I think he may be a good head coach at some point, but he isn't ready to be the head coach of a playoff caliber football team, which is what Miami is aiming to be. He's still very green, and I don't think Ross is going to want to wait for a few years while he learns the nuances of coaching.

I think they need a clean break, and they need an experienced head coach to come in an assemble his staff however he sees fit.

This all makes sense. I was kind of confused by your prior post since it seems like you can't bring yourself to root against them. I hear ya, that wouldn't be an easy position to be in. Pats fans have been so ridiculously lucky to not be in that position since 2000. At some point we'll be walking in your shoes and it won't be fun.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

The only thing that matters is tannehill. Now that Lazor is gone his last set of excuses is gone, too. He has rest of season to show he can be a top 15 nfl QB or the rebuild starts from scratch at the QB position.

Secondarily you hope some of the rookies and second year guys step up and show they can be serviceable.

 

[mcaqua]

Throwbacks tonight. At least we'll be looking good when we lose.

 

[dwainw]

Are you Dolphins fans rooting for losses for better draft position at this point, or just want to see them win as many as possible?

While I agree with what sodenj and Clears are saying in principle, it's awfully hard to root against my team under most circumstances. I mean, I can't not watch and if I'm going to watch, I want to see good football. I'm of the mind that I'll root hard for them like I always do and let the chips fall. Plus, let's not forget that they're not mathematically eliminated.....

I'm especially interested in watching a few of the young guys--Parker, Ajayi, and Vernon in particular--to get some sense of what to hope for in the future. And of course, Tannehill. Although in his case, I fear we already know what to hope for.