I have a difficult time picturing them surrendering only 20 points (or less) to the all of the above teams.j-man said:
2015 Broncos-Peyton's Retirement Party Sunday 1/24/16 3PM ET
- Thread starter Dogman
- Start date
- Status
Two cold weather road play-off wins (Cincy and Foxboro) for Peyton's (11-5) Broncos?
It could happen, but sounds more like fantasy football.
It could happen, but sounds more like fantasy football.
Let's see what they do against a team like Green Bay. Their defense has looked great against the awful teams they've played.. But what will they look like against actual playoff teams?j-man said:
And also Peyton in cold weather away games? Not so good.
Why are we assuming that an undefeated team will go 6-5 the rest of the way? I bet they get a home game.
They have played teams that are collectively 6-18 to date.
They of course helped make 5 of those 18 losses, but they have not played quality teams yet. That said, doesnt look like much elite quality on the horizon save for NE, GB, CIN.
They may well get a home game.
They of course helped make 5 of those 18 losses, but they have not played quality teams yet. That said, doesnt look like much elite quality on the horizon save for NE, GB, CIN.
They may well get a home game.
The 5-loss scenario was J-man's.pokey_reese said:
I figure 4 games
Green Bay
New England
@ Pitt (Ben R should be ready)
Cinn.
are more probable Ls than Ws
at Indy a maybe L
and maybe another loss from the 3 remaining games w/SD and KC (1).
I think 11-5 gets them the AFCW and a home game as a 3 or 4 seed.
lars10 said:
Peyton has looked like crap for most of this season already and they're 5-0. Unless he pulls a Jake Delhomme and throws 4 picks a game from November on, they'll probably be fine.
I think an injury to Harris, Talib or Miller, all three of whom aren't exactly durable guys, could really test the D. They would still be good, but those guys are stars and especially having the two top corners gives them a huge advantage. I know you can say this about every team, just seems more likely with these guys and it would hurt them more.
well the division sucks other than san diegodcmissle said:
i said 11-5 last night that is worst case
i think we will go for the 2 seed which means 13-14 wins now let say denver is 10-2 with 4 games left Oak W Pittsburgh i say 60/40 loss but if denver can make pitt play a low scoring game it favors denver because Pitt has bad Starting CB'S and lack of a pass rush + Denver has a top 4 Kicker Pitt will plob be 8-5 or so we would need the win because i would rather play a buffalo in the playoffs at home then pitt
the Q to me is week 16 will ciny be 12-2 11-3 or 10-4 9-5 if i had to guess i wouild say 11-3 so the week 16 MNF game shouild be a play in game for the 2 seed
week 17 i think denver will use that game to see if brock is the QB for 2016 and beyond
Do you honestly think that this Denver team, led by this version of Peyton Manning, can win in New England?
Of course they *can* win. They have an excellent defense. If the teams play 10 times, does NE win 7? Yeah, probably. But that still means there's a very realistic chance that they lose any one game.
Denver's currently sporting a +6 turnover differential, tied for 2nd in the NFL. They have forced an NFL-leading 14 takeaways: Manning has 7 picks (6 TDs), and the defense has 7 interceptions (2 TDs). Where they are exceptional is in fumbles, where they've recovered 7 (of 10) opponent fumbles, while losing just 1. While there are definitely examples of crazy outliers with football fumble data, it's dangerous to draw conclusions from such samples.
Not to make a Sharp point, but I don't think Denver is going to run 291 plays per fumble this season.
Anyway, that's all beside the point of what I was originally going to point out, which is that Manning's currently on pace to throw more INTs in any year since 2002 when he threw 19. He now has 241 career interceptions. Brady has 143 picks, in case anyone was wondering.
Not to make a Sharp point, but I don't think Denver is going to run 291 plays per fumble this season.
Anyway, that's all beside the point of what I was originally going to point out, which is that Manning's currently on pace to throw more INTs in any year since 2002 when he threw 19. He now has 241 career interceptions. Brady has 143 picks, in case anyone was wondering.
Predicting the #2 seed and resting guys and taking the final week off?j-man said:
That's a bit bold.
Perhaps they are deflating the balls this year?soxfan121 said:
There's no better time to fly than right after a crash.
Another awful game for Manning so far. 5 ypa, two picks versus the Browns. Likely just setting up things for a "heroic" game-winning drive that features at least one dropped pick, natch.
Edit - just in time for a heroic blown coverage on the Browns. Gutsy stuff.
Edit - just in time for a heroic blown coverage on the Browns. Gutsy stuff.
Ed Hillel said:
According to the NFL.com website (not including todays games) Denver is 27th in passer rating, 23rd in passing YPG, T2nd in INT, T22nd in passing TDs, 18th in comp%. So, yeah, you're probably correct.
With the best 1-2 WR punch in the league. And nothing about Hillman or Anderson looked slow today, I'm convinced it's more a product of defenses generally being able to combat the the run because Manning's skillls are limited.dbn said:
How many times did they throw a 2 yard out on 3rd and 5 today? So predictable. If they ever face a team that doesn't shit the bed they may get blown off the field
This is somehow an understatement. A number of people have compared this broncos team to the 2000 ravens. Relative to the league, Peyton's season-to-date is comparable to where Charlie Batch and Ryan Leaf ranked in 2000.Ed Hillel said:
2015 Peyton is comparable to Ryan Leaf and Charlie Batch.
Enjoy the ride while it lasts j-man. The bubble has to burst soon. Along with Peyton's neck or shoulder or something.
Devizier said:
I'm looking at cbssports.com's QB stats page, sorted by passer rating. And what's remarkable is that Denver is 6-0, but Peyton Manning's name is nowhere to be found on the first page. There's 30 guys on each page. Obviously not all of them have played a full season so far, but still. He's 14th down the list *on the second page*. Right behind.....Andrew Luck.
It's startling, really.
Should be fun. GBs offense has slowed so we'll seeDrewDawg said:
edit: I keep saying if you don't let Denver D take it away for scores - clearly easier said than done for crappy offenses - I don't see how Denver can beat you
Significant risk item: the odds of Talib being able to play in the playoffs given his durability history. Around 25%.
Stupid fact that may only interest me:
Coming into the year, Brady had a 95.87 passer rating, and Peyton had a 97.50, a gap of 1.63
As of today, Brady is up to 96.49 and Peyton is down to 96.87, a gap of 0.38
So Brady has closed the gap by 1.25 in the career passer rating statistic category. A few more weeks and Brady could pass him for good.
Coming into the year, Brady had a 95.87 passer rating, and Peyton had a 97.50, a gap of 1.63
As of today, Brady is up to 96.49 and Peyton is down to 96.87, a gap of 0.38
So Brady has closed the gap by 1.25 in the career passer rating statistic category. A few more weeks and Brady could pass him for good.
Soxfan in Fla said:
overheard on twitter: Peyton's new Papa John's promotion: order any large pizza and pick six toppings for free.
There is no Rev said:
I feel like we're back in the Tebowmania year. Offense plays like shit most of the game; defense balls out of their minds to keep the game close; something wacky happens late to win the game.
Twilight Zone shit, man.
So aside from this being what has to be the worst offense on a 6-0 team ever (and feeling incredibly lucky to be undefeated and heavily in control of the AFC West), there are signs that Manning isn't totally cooked yet. He still flashes signs of being able to sling it and many of the interceptions seem to be coming on uncharacteristic bad decision making instead of just physical fuck ups (2 of his 3 yesterday were just stupid calls he should not have made) so that leaves me wondering if he's just in a stretch of bad luck or if maybe he feels his new physical limitations mean he needs to take more risks. There were a few dropped passes yesterday that would have been big drive extenders so if those plays had gone in Peyton's favor, his line could look much better (although, to be fair, drops and fuckups happen to all offenses, so you can't just plan on those never happening again or use it as a real excuse).
The entire Denver offense is simply really confusing to me. I can't write it off as a lost cause, but I also can't pinpoint much more than random good play that gives signs of improvement. Cleveland's defense was banged up and yet Manning couldn't extend drives for the most part. There were flashes of thing clicking but then something totally wonky would happen to negate that.
I feel like there is still potential for the offense to finally click and be at least mediocre (which would be a marked improvement)... or it could continue to stumble around and never get good enough to beat good teams.
The bye week comes at a good time and hopefully they'll come out of it showing some better consistency and can get healthier. GB, @Indy, KC, @Chi, NE and @SD is the gauntlet. 4 tough games with 2 weaker opponents (who could still be challenging the same way @CLE was yesterday) will be a heavy lift.
Such a head scratcher.
I don't know. Ive watched most of the Denver games and I don't really see a lot of signs he's still able to sling it. He hasn't really been able to throw with a lot of velocity in a couple years and was really effective until the last quarter of '14. Everything is a moonball that hangs in the air forever. The throw that the announcers called out as a dying quail was laugh out loud funny coming from an NFL quarterback. Thomas did drop some balls in big spots yesterday. I buy Manning's been a little unlucky on turnovers, but some of those seem to be coming from making bad decisions because he hasn't figured out that he cant make a lot of throws (the one the linebacker picked off was a bad decision for current Peyton, but Peyton completes that pass two years ago). He was once again one of the worst quarterbacks on the field in the league yesterday against a not great defense.. Best hope is that he has some sort of nagging injury that can heal up over the bye week combined with getting used to playing a game manager role/adjusting decisions for his new physical limitations, but man it seems pretty likely the arm has gotten to a point where he can't be an effective NFL quarterback.
Throw the names out of the equation and Alex Smith would be a material upgrade at this point.
Throw the names out of the equation and Alex Smith would be a material upgrade at this point.
tims4wins said:
So if Edelman doesn't bat that ball in the air, Brady may be ahead of Peyton already.
Good point.
Also, to stich's point, here is what Manning's last 11 games look like dating back to December 2014 (including the playoff game):
61.6%, 6.75 YPA, 11 TD, 16 INT, 74.1 passer rating
9 straight games with a YPA under 8, including a 4.38, 4.59, 6.04, and 5.69
It is pretty ugly at this point.
Even NFLN said he was a below average starting QB right now - Marshall Faulk said it, others may have as well
edit: as a comparison, Josh McCown has a career rating of 78.0
Also, to stich's point, here is what Manning's last 11 games look like dating back to December 2014 (including the playoff game):
61.6%, 6.75 YPA, 11 TD, 16 INT, 74.1 passer rating
9 straight games with a YPA under 8, including a 4.38, 4.59, 6.04, and 5.69
It is pretty ugly at this point.
Even NFLN said he was a below average starting QB right now - Marshall Faulk said it, others may have as well
edit: as a comparison, Josh McCown has a career rating of 78.0
Its a perfect storm of physical deterioration, limitations inherent to needing to run the Peyton offense, shitty surrounding personnel, and bad decision making as he finds himself in uncharted territory as a QB.
I mentioned last week that the passing offense is insanely focused on DT and Sanders and that's what we saw again yesterday. He targeted DT and Sanders 28 times between them. Then there were nine targets to backs, but mainly on check downs, not designed plays that get them into patterns in advantageous situations. And then only seven targets to other players. Daniels was basically not involved at all until that last drive in OT, when he made the one big catch on the crossing route and then the minor catch on the boot play to improve their position for the FG. Their WRs beyond DT/Sanders were targeted four times and caught three balls for a total of 17 yards.
The personnel beyond DT/Sanders is really bad but a competent offense should be able to spread the ball around more, even with street FAs. I don't whether this falls on Kubiak or Peyton is just locking onto DT and Sanders. But its a very predictable passing attack and the result is Peyton squeezing a ton of balls into tight coverage on DT and Sanders while 1-2 other guys essentially just run dummy routes in single coverage every play they also keep the TE in to block a fair amount).
I mentioned last week that the passing offense is insanely focused on DT and Sanders and that's what we saw again yesterday. He targeted DT and Sanders 28 times between them. Then there were nine targets to backs, but mainly on check downs, not designed plays that get them into patterns in advantageous situations. And then only seven targets to other players. Daniels was basically not involved at all until that last drive in OT, when he made the one big catch on the crossing route and then the minor catch on the boot play to improve their position for the FG. Their WRs beyond DT/Sanders were targeted four times and caught three balls for a total of 17 yards.
The personnel beyond DT/Sanders is really bad but a competent offense should be able to spread the ball around more, even with street FAs. I don't whether this falls on Kubiak or Peyton is just locking onto DT and Sanders. But its a very predictable passing attack and the result is Peyton squeezing a ton of balls into tight coverage on DT and Sanders while 1-2 other guys essentially just run dummy routes in single coverage every play they also keep the TE in to block a fair amount).
If Brady had Denver's offensive personnel he'd still be putting up huge numbers. No way he wouldn't be going crazy with guys like that to throw to, and guys like that to hand the ball off to. And we know he's made do with worse offensive lines.
I can't decide how good Denver is. Their defense is incredible. And that D could be problematic for any offense. You get the sense that all Denver needs is to score 17-20 points and they're in pretty good shape. Especially if their D either gets a score or sets one up with great field position.
But their offense is not good, despite lots of talent. Can anyone see Peyton traveling to Foxboro and putting up good numbers in mid January, with the temp at 18 degrees? I can't.
So I could see NE losing to them 23-20, as the Denver D gets three turnovers (including a pick-six, say). But I could also see NE blowing them out 35-13 as they shut down Denver's offense, get a couple of defensive scores themselves, and Brady stays upright and picks them apart.
It's a very tough team to figure right now.
I can't decide how good Denver is. Their defense is incredible. And that D could be problematic for any offense. You get the sense that all Denver needs is to score 17-20 points and they're in pretty good shape. Especially if their D either gets a score or sets one up with great field position.
But their offense is not good, despite lots of talent. Can anyone see Peyton traveling to Foxboro and putting up good numbers in mid January, with the temp at 18 degrees? I can't.
So I could see NE losing to them 23-20, as the Denver D gets three turnovers (including a pick-six, say). But I could also see NE blowing them out 35-13 as they shut down Denver's offense, get a couple of defensive scores themselves, and Brady stays upright and picks them apart.
It's a very tough team to figure right now.
BaseballJones said:
I'm sure Brady would be doing much better but you're not watching this Denver very closely if you believe the bolded. The RBs are nothing to write home about. More importantly, the offensive line is awful and definitely worse than any Patriots OL in the Brady era.
Peyton press release today, only caught a snippet on ESPN but certainly sounded like he was blaming bad luck and DT for his poor performance. Went as far as to say he was sure DT would like to have some of those back. Sure he had some bad drops yesterday but nothing compared to the ducks Peyton has been slinging all season. His Spiral to wobble ratio has to be about 1-5 this season if not worse.
Did you see the TD pass to sanders yesterday? Perfectly timed and placed strike 25 yards through the air against tight CB coverage. He made a perfect throw. The next time Alex Smith throws that pass will be his first in the NFL.Stitch01 said:
Yeah I saw it. It was a good throw but I didn't think it was into a real tight window the safety massively fucked up the play.86spike said:
If he was throwing a high percentage of passes like that or getting better week to week id feel more optimistic. I won't count him out because of pedigree and the fact he adjusted once already to diminished arm strength, but every time I watch him I feel more pessimistic about his prospects.
BaseballJones said:
Passing of the torch!
Seriously, though, I've been a long-time Manning-hater, but I'm not enjoying watching him play so poorly. If it were Eli, sure, but Peyton has been such a long-time rival of the Patriots and Patriots' fans, that he's our bad guy. I'm not sure why I feel that way about Peyton and don't think I would about, say, Jeter if he sucked at the end, but I do. Still can't stand the guy, but I enjoyed rooting against a really, really, really good Peyton Manning more than I do against a terrible Peyton Manning.
Listening to sports radio in Denver they're about half step away from turning on Manning. They were ready last year after the Colts debacle. If they weren't 6-0 they would have done so already,
- Status