2014 Rule 5 Draft & Roster Discussion

[mabrowndog]

This year's draft is December 11 at the end of the Winter Meetings. The deadline for clubs to submit reserve rosters of protected players is midnight on November 20. Here are some of the rules governing the Rule 5 draft process (spoilered to save space):
 

Spoiler

WHAT IS THE RULE 5 DRAFT?

It's a system designed to prevent teams from hoarding talent, especially players who may be ready to perform at the major league level. It was put in place as part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and the players' union to ensure deserving players rightfully gain opportunities to further their careers and wages, and to help ensure competitive balance and depth between teams.
 
A team cannot draft an eligible player unless there is a corresponding vacancy on its reserve roster. So if they enter the Rule 5 draft with a full 40-man roster, they can't make any selections during the Major League phase of the draft.
 
There is no limit on the number of eligible players a club can lose through the Rule 5 draft.

 
WHAT ARE THESE "PHASES" YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT?

While the process is most commonly associated with a club's 40-man roster (the "Major League" phase), teams must also protect players at its two highest minor league levels (AAA and AA) as part of the "Minor League" phase, which are conducted at the conclusion of the Major League phases. Teams may protect up to 38 players on their AAA reserve roster, and up to 37 players on their AA reserve roster.
 
In the AAA phase, teams may select any eligible player not selected during the Major League phase, as well as any player left off the 38-man AAA reserve roster. In the AA phase, teams may select any eligible player not selected during the Major League or AAA phases, as well as any player left off the 37-man AA reserve roster.
 
Theoretically, a AAA selection does not rank among his organization’s top 78 eligibles. Likewise, a AA selection does not rank among its top 115 eligibles.

 
WHO IS ELIGIBLE FOR THE RULE 5 DRAFT?

* Players NOT on one of the three reserve rosters and:
 
A) were 18 or younger on the June 5 preceding their signing, and this is the fifth Rule 5 draft upcoming.
OR
B) were 19 or older on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is fourth Rule 5 draft upcoming.
 
NOTE: For players who were signed AFTER the conclusion of their team's season but BEFORE that year's Rule 5 draft, you begin counting with the FOLLOWING YEAR'S Rule 5 draft.
 
* A player on the Voluntarily Retired List, Disqualified List, or Ineligible List is NOT eligible for the Rule 5 draft.
 
* A player on the Restricted List or the Military List is eligible.
 
* A minor league player/manager meeting the above criteria is eligible, but if picked he has 30 days to reject the selection.

 
HOW MUCH DOES A TEAM PAY TO DRAFT A PLAYER?

In the Major League phase a fee of $50,000 per player is paid to the club losing the player. For the AAA phase, each pick costs $12,000. For the AA phase, it's $4,000.

 
ARE THERE RESTRICTIONS ON WHAT TEAMS CAN DO BETWEEN THE RESERVE ROSTER DEADLINE (usually November 20) AND THE RULE 5 DRAFT?

* Eligible players cannot be moved between a club's various reserve rosters (from AA to AAA, for example).
 
* Eligible players cannot be traded until after the draft.
 
* A player on the 40-man roster cannot be sent outright to the minors on the two days prior to the Rule 5 Draft or on the day of the draft until it is concluded.

 
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN AN UNPROTECTED PLAYER IS DRAFTED BY ANOTHER TEAM DURING THE MAJOR LEAGUE PHASE?

* The new club must tender him a major league contract by 5 pm on the day of the draft. The new club must keep him on their 25-man active roster or on the disabled list for the entirety of the following season.
 
* A player remains a Rule 5 player (and subject to being returned to the club that lost him) until he has spent AT LEAST 90 days on the selecting team's active roster (and NOT on the disabled list). Those 90 days may be spread across multiple seasons. Once those conditions are met, Rule 5 restrictions are removed (at the end of that season) and the player's contract is permanently assigned to the drafting club.
 
* If the conditions are NOT met, or if the drafting team decides not to keep the player, he must be placed on Outright Assignment Waivers. Any of the other 28 MLB clubs (except the team he was drafted from) can claim the player for the $25,000 Rule 5 waiver price. Whatever team acquires the player assumes all Rule 5 obligations until the conditions are met.
 
* If the player goes unclaimed, he must be offered back to the team from which he was drafted. If the selecting team accepts the player, it will return half the acquisition fee ($25,000) to the drafting team. The team accepting the player gets him back on the same contract he had prior to being drafted. The drafting club is responsible for any portion of the player's salary above what the player was paid the previous season. In general, the team that lost the player has 72 hours to decide whether to accept him. However if the player is eligible to become an Article XX-D Free Agent (see below), the team has just 24 hours to make the decision and the player would then have 72 hours to decide whether to accept the minor league assignment or become a free agent.
 
>>> When outrighted to the minors, a player may elect free cgency under Article XX-D if he has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time, qualifies for salary arbitration as a "Super Two" player, and/or has been outrighted to the minors previously in his career.<<<
 
* If the player goes unclaimed AND the team that lost the player does NOT accept him back, then the drafting team retains his rights and can send him to the minors or release him. However the player cannot be released or sent to the minors any earlier than 20 days prior to MLB Opening Day, and then only if Outright Assignment Waivers have been secured.

 
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN AN UNPROTECTED PLAYER IS DRAFTED BY ANOTHER TEAM DURING THE AAA OR AA PHASE?

The minor league phases are relatively free of restrictions. A player must be assigned to the reserve list for the affiliate at the level of the respective phase in which he was drafted. So a AAA phase player must be immediately placed on the AAA reserve roster of the selecting team, and a AA phase player must be placed on their AA reserve roster. This is basically part of the "must have vacancies to draft a player" rule.
 
And that's pretty much it. Once the minor league regular season begins that player can be assigned to any minor league affiliate in the system of the selecting team. He can also be traded, with the new club assuming all obligations. If demoted or released, the player doesn't have to be offered back to the club from which he was drafted, and doesn't have to be made available to any other organizations through a waiver process. If released, he simply becomes a free agent, and the team that selected him doesn't recover any part of its acquisition fee.

 
With Mike Carp being DFAd, there are currently 37 players on the 40-man roster. Ryan Lavarnway will need to be activated soon from the 60-day DL to take one of those slots (sure, they could release or trade him, but for now let's just cover the bases for anyone who's currently an asset under contract). That leaves 33 players projected to be on the 40-man by season's end who are under club control for 2015:
 
Starters (8) - Buchholz, De La Rosa, Escobar, Kelly, Ranaudo, Webster, Workman, Wright
Relievers (6) - Britton, Hembree, Layne, Mujica, Tazawa, Wilson
Catchers (2) - Butler, Vazquez
Infielders (9) - Bogaerts, Cecchini, Herrera, Holt, Lavarnway, Middlebrooks, Napoli, Ortiz, Pedroia
Outfielders (8) - Bradley Jr., Betts, Brentz, Cespedes, Craig, Hassan, Nava, Victorino
 
Looking ahead to the likely free agent or trade acquisitions in store for the club this winter (with rumored/reported re-signings in parentheses):
 
* Closer (Qualifying Offer to Uehara?)
* Set-up Reliever (Re-sign Miller?)
* Back-end Reliever
* Backup Catcher (Re-sign Ross?)
* Frontline Starter (Re-sign Lester?)
 
There are plenty of other possible acquisitions the team could consider that would take up a roster spot before November 20 (a #2 starter like Shields, a 3B if WMB sucks over the next 2 months and he isn't dealt until after the R5 draft, bringing back Badenhop for a year, etc.) Likewise they could make moves to free up additional slots (clearing the OF glut, trading Mujica if they think their internal options are more cost-effective, etc.)  But let's hold off on those suppositions for now and stick with the moves listed above. Those would bring committed roster spots up to 38.
 
Now let's look at players likely to be deemed expendable from the 40-man:
 
* Lavarnway (out of options, DFA)
* Britton (out of options, DFA)
 
That drops it to 36. There are also players with future options remaining but who may be considered unworthy of 40-man slots due to performance, positional redundancy, or their slim likelihood of being selected in the draft:
 
* Alex Wilson, RHP
* Dan Butler, C
* Jonathan Herrera, IF
 
This would bring the roster down to 33 and provide for 7 vacancies.
 
 
So which current Red Sox prospects are Rule 5 eligible? Here are the most prominent:
 
[tablegrid=]Player POS Age DOB Signed R5 Eligible MLFA? Blake Swihart C 22 04/03/1992 08/15/2011 2014   Eduardo Rodriguez LHSP 21 04/07/1993 01/22/2010 2014   Matt Barnes RHSP 24 06/17/1990 08/15/2011 2014   Travis Shaw 1B 24 04/16/1990 06/13/2011 2014   Sean Coyle 2B 22 01/17/1992 08/16/2010 2014   Luis Diaz RHSP 22 04/09/1992 08/28/2008 2012   Noe Ramirez RHRP 24 12/22/1989 08/15/2011 2014   Henry Ramos OF 22 04/15/1992 06/20/2010 2014   Aaron Kurcz RHRP 23 08/08/1990 06/21/2010 2013   Derrik Gibson SS 24 12/05/1989 07/15/2008 2012 Y John Ely RHRP 28 05/13/1986 07/01/2007 2010 Y Jonathan Aro RHRP 23 10/10/1990 06/06/2011 2014   Michael Almanzar 3B 23 12/02/1990 07/02/2007 2011 Y Robby Scott LHRP 24 08/29/1989 08/09/2011 2014   Ryan Verdugo LHSP 27 04/10/1987 07/01/2008 2011 Y Miguel Celestino RHRP 24 10/10/1989 12/14/2006 2011 Y Keith Couch RHRP 24 11/05/1989 06/14/2010 2013   Chris Hernandez LHRP 25 12/14/1988 08/16/2010 2013   Keury De La Cruz OF 22 11/25/1991 02/06/2009 2013   Dan Butler C 27 10/17/1986 07/27/2009 2012   Alex Wilson RHRP 27 11/03/1986 06/15/2009 2012   Jonathan Herrera IF 29 11/03/1984 04/06/2002 2006 Y Ryan Lavarnway C 26 08/07/1987 06/27/2008 2011 Y Drake Britton LHSP 25 05/22/1989 08/15/2007 2011 Y [/tablegrid]
 
* Players in red would be my top 6 choices for the 7 projected spots in order of preference.
 
* Players in blue are all candidates who've earned some measure of consideration for the last spot, again in order of my personal preference. Those at the bottom of that grouping are there for only the sake of inclusiveness, but guys like Hernandez and KDLC don't seriously belong in the discussion.
 
* Players in green are those who would be removed from the 40-man in advance of the reserve rosters deadline. The rest are listed in reverse order of signing date, most recent additions first.
 
* A "Y" in the MLFA column means the player can elect minor league free agency if he's not added to the 40-man.
 
So what are everyone's thoughts on which kids (or even older guys) the club should seek to hold onto this winter?

 

[mabrowndog]

Below are all the other Rule 5-eligible players in Boston's system, sorted by signing date (most recent first). I had to split them into a separate table from the list above due to ProBoards formatting constraints. Unfortunately this chart can't be spoilered without screwing it up, so it's a page hog:
 
[tablegrid=]Player POS Age DOB Signed R5 Eligible MLFA? Matty Ott RHRP 24 04/20/1990 06/23/2011 2014   David Chester 1B 25 03/31/1989 06/17/2011 2014   Matt Gedman 3B/1B 25 09/26/1988 06/17/2011 2014   Nick Natoli SS 26 01/17/1988 06/16/2011 2014   Tim Roberson C 25 07/19/1989 06/16/2011 2014   Michael McCarthy RHSP 26 11/18/1987 06/13/2011 2014   Chris Martin RHRP 28 06/02/1986 03/15/2011 2014   Matty Johnson OF 26 04/10/1988 09/29/2010 2013   Edwar Garcia RHRP 20 11/19/1993 09/27/2010 2014   Kendrick Perkins OF 22 09/12/1991 08/07/2010 2014   Jacob Dahlstrand RHSP 22 03/26/1992 06/30/2010 2014   Zach Kapstein OF 22 05/28/1992 06/28/2010 2014   Jason Garcia RHSP 21 11/21/1992 06/23/2010 2014   Jayson Hernandez C 25 09/02/1988 06/14/2010 2013   Jonathan Roof UT 25 01/23/1989 06/14/2010 2013 Y Nate Reed LHRP 26 12/01/1987 06/13/2010 2013 Y David Sopilka C 20 08/30/1993 05/25/2010 2014   Carlos Pinales RHRP 22 04/05/1992 05/03/2010 2014   Sergio Gomez RHSP 20 08/24/1993 12/08/2009 2014   Ellis Jimenez RHRP 22 06/26/1992 11/10/2009 2013   Madison Younginer RHRP 23 11/03/1990 08/14/2009 2013   Jose Vinicio SS 21 07/10/1993 07/13/2009 2013   Mario Alcantara RHRP 21 12/27/1992 07/02/2009 2013   Shannon Wilkerson OF 26 07/20/1988 06/26/2009 2012   Dreily Guerrero IF 23 10/12/1990 06/04/2009 2013   Carson Blair C 24 10/18/1989 08/15/2008 2012 Y William Cuevas RHSP 23 10/14/1990 07/02/2008 2012   Oscar Perez RHRP 22 11/09/1991 07/02/2008 2012   Peter Hissey OF 24 01/17/1990 06/15/2008 2012 Y Pete Ruiz RHRP 26 08/21/1987 06/14/2008 2011 Y Jeremy Kehrt RHSP 28 12/21/1985 06/11/2008 2011 Y Michael Brenly C 27 10/14/1986 06/10/2008 2011 Y Raynel Velette RHRP 23 06/10/1991 02/25/2008 2012 Y Heiker Meneses 2B 23 07/01/1991 02/01/2008 2012 Y Leonel Escobar C 23 09/04/1990 10/18/2007 2011 Y Ryan Dent 2B 25 03/15/1989 08/15/2007 2011 Y Justin Henry OF 29 04/30/1985 06/21/2007 2010 Y Corey Brown OF 29 01/26/1985 06/19/2007 2010 Y Mario Martinez IF 24 11/13/1989 07/03/2006 2010 Y Brayan Villareal RHRP 27 05/10/1987 10/25/2005 2009 Y Dayan Diaz RHRP 25 02/10/1989 10/01/2005 2009 Y Brandon Snyder 3B 27 11/23/1986 06/13/2005 2009 Y Carlos Rivero 3B 26 05/20/1988 05/30/2005 2009 Y Stefan Welch 3B 25 08/12/1988 01/15/2005 2009 Y Matt Spring C 29 11/07/1984 06/16/2004 2007 Y Ryan Roberts 2B 34 05/19/1980 06/05/2003 2006 Y Mike McCoy IF 33 04/02/1981 06/12/2002 2005 Y Jose Valdez RHRP 31 01/22/1983 10/05/2000 2004 Y [/tablegrid]

 

[mabrowndog]

And because I'm sure some will ask when other Sox players are Rule 5 eligible, here are the most prominent members of the upcoming classes. I didn't bother listing the 8 high school players taken in the June amateur draft this year, as they'll all be eligible in 2018. Again, players in red look to be slam dunks for the 40-man at this very early stage:
 
[tablegrid=]Player POS Age Now DOB Signed R5 Eligible Henry Owens LHSP 22 07/21/1992 08/15/2011 2015 Brian Johnson LHSP 23 12/07/1990 06/27/2012 2015 Deven Marrero SS 23 08/25/1990 06/20/2012 2015 Manuel Margot OF 19 09/28/1994 07/02/2011 2015 Cody Kukuk LHSP 21 04/10/1993 08/15/2011 2015 Pat Light RHSP 23 03/29/1991 06/15/2012 2015 Ty Buttrey RHSP 21 03/21/1993 06/15/2012 2015 Justin Haley RHSP 23 06/16/1991 06/10/2012 2015 German Taveras RHRP 21 02/15/1993 03/05/2011 2015 Mike Augliera RHSP 24 06/08/1990 06/10/2012 2015 Jordan Weems C 21 11/07/1992 07/26/2011 2015             Teddy Stankiewicz RHSP 20 11/25/1993 06/29/2013 2016 Wendell Rijo 2B 18 09/05/1995 07/06/2012 2016 Simon Mercedes RHSP 22 01/17/1992 03/02/2012 2016 Carlos Asuaje 3B/2B 22 11/02/1991 06/13/2013 2016 Jamie Callahan RHSP 19 08/24/1994 06/15/2012 2016 Joe Gunkel RHSP 22 12/30/1991 06/12/2013 2016 Reed Gragnani 2B/3B 23 09/05/1990 06/13/2013 2016 Javier Guerra SS 18 09/25/1995 07/02/2012 2016 Forrestt Allday OF 23 04/24/1991 06/13/2013 2016 Jantzen Witte 3B/1B 24 01/04/1990 06/19/2013 2016             Rafael Devers 3B 17 10/24/1996 07/02/2013 2017 Trey Ball LHSP 20 06/27/1994 06/19/2013 2017 Sam Travis 1B 20 08/27/1993 06/17/2014 2017 Nick Longhi 1B/OF 18 08/16/1995 07/12/2013 2017 Danny Mars OF 20 01/22/1994 06/21/2014 2017 Daniel McGrath LHSP 20 07/07/1994 02/07/2012 2017 Cole Sturgeon OF 22 09/17/1991 06/24/2014 2017 Derek Miller OF 22 07/18/1992 06/17/2014 2017 Ben Moore C 21 09/22/1992 06/24/2014 2017 [/tablegrid]
 
 

 

[billy ashley]

First of all:
 
Great breakdown. Thanks for doing all that work.
 
As far as this year's "roster crunch", while there are several interesting guys who look like they'll be vulnerable (i could see Kurcz and or Ramirez sticking as a reliever somewhere, and Ramos may have enough defensive value to not be returned if selected), it looks pretty clear that Boston will be making some trades that open up roster space the winter (or negate the need to add guys). 
 
I think its very likely we see the following players dealt:
 
Betts- Exceptionally talented, but is redundant given Pedroia. He could sneak into the OF, but I suspect the front office wants more power from the corner OF spots
Nava- The OF is very crowded. I don't expect they would get much for him, but Nava looks like his days in Boston are numbered. It doesn't make sense to carry Craig, Cespedes, and Nava. Especially given the fact that Boston may make a run at an OF this off-season (Heyward, Stanton, Gonzalez)
Anyone of the non Owens starters- The Sox have a ton of depth at SP and enough spots for them to all start between the majors and the minors (presuming they acquire a front line starter this off-season). just in lefties, Boston has 3 credible SP prospects in the high minors, not including Owens. 

I think the following could be dealt:
Middlebrooks-Depending on whether or not Boston sees SS as the long term home for Xander and if a SS option is available. They could also go Holt, I guess.
Cecchini-Lost year but still a talented hitter. Again, a lot depends on where they want to play Xander long term.
Owens- If the Sox do go for one of the big names rumored to be available on the trade market, he would be an attractive piece to center a deal around, along with Mookie or Swihart.
Swihart- See above. this would make me sad, I tend to think Owens is slightly overrated by us and Swihart isn't, but I digress.
Craig-Again, they've got a ton of OF, right now. If they deal for one of the big names, he may be out of a spot.
Bradley- Depends on Betts or if they go after Heyward.
 
So yeah, they have a lot of talent, but it seems like more trades are coming; that should thin things out a bit. 

 

 

[amfox1]

'Dog - 
 
Assuming your assumptions are correct and there are seven vacancies on the 40-man roster (which is my current projection), there are five locks in my view:
 
Swihart (C, SP.com #2 prospect)
E.Rodriguez (P, SP.com #10 prospect)
Barnes (P, SP.com #12 prospect)
Coyle (INF, SP.com #13 prospect)
Shaw (1B, SP.com #23 prospect)
 
That leaves two open spots and the following possibilities to fill them (with SP.com prospect rankings):

Pitchers (AA)

L.Diaz (#21 prospect) - 22YO in AA, plus FB (touches 94+), two other pitches, projects as a reliever

N.Ramirez (#28 prospect) - 24YO in AA, three average pitches but deceptive delivery, command-and-control guy, would think he'll get an AAA audition and perhaps the AFL to make his case, he'd be one of my picks right now

Kurcz (#45 prospect) - 23YO in AA, coming back from TJ, plus FB, average command, too many walks, might be 3rd guy on list

Couch (#36 prospect) - 24YO in AA, three average pitches, groundball pitcher, cannot see him getting picked

Scott (#55 prospect) - 24YO in AA, below-average FB, deception, cannot see him getting picked

Pitchers (AAA, all but Hernandez are MLFA if not added)

Celestino (#43 prospect) - 24YO in AAA, plus-plus fastball, secondary pitches still need work, I think he's auditioning for a spot over the next month 

Ely - 28YO in AAA, was an excellent AAA prospect before getting hurt, coming back from TJ, upside potential, question is whether the Red Sox protect him, my guess is not and hope he comes back to AAA next year

Verdugo - 27YO in AAA, midseason pickup from KC, could get audition as lefty bullpen guy this year, three average pitches, looks more like AAAA to me

Ruiz - 26YO in AA, I added him to the list but I don't see him being protected, someone will take him as a MLFA and plug him into AAA next year

Hernandez - 25YO in AAA, been valuable swingman, pitchability guy but walks too many for my taste, I don't see him being protected especially given that the Red Sox control his rights unless he is taken in the Rule 5 draft

Position players (AA)

H.Ramos (#29 prospect) - 22YO in AA, been injured this year, I think the Red Sox will shelter him for the rest of the year and hope no one takes him in the Rule 5 draft, still in their plans though

Almanzar (#46 prospect) (MLFA if not added) - he's 23YO in AA, doesn't look to have improved over last year, been passed by Coyle, don't see him being protected

De La Cruz (#47 prospect) - 22YO in AA, has regressed, no chance he's protected

Gibson (#54 prospect) (MLFA if not added) - having a career year at age 24 in AAA and has some provenance, but if the Red Sox believed in him, he would have been promoted permanently to AAA, cannot see him being protected
 
Personally, I think it is Diaz, Ramirez, Kurcz, Celestino, Ely and Verdugo for the last two spots (obviously, there could be more or less spots due to moves between now and December).  My current picks would be Diaz and Ramirez, but I think they'll send a number of the players on this list to the AFL for further evaluation.

 

[Bigpupp]

Not that it matter much because I think he will either be protected or taken, but the SoxProspects page shows that Diaz isn't MLFA eligible until next year.

I think Ramos is an interesting guy, though. He seemed to me like a lock to be protected earlier this year Then the injury happened and he hasn't been back since. I know it's easy to stash a pitcher for a year, but is there a chance someone would take a chance on a guy with his profile?

 

[mabrowndog]

Not that it matter much because I think he will either be protected or taken, but the SoxProspects page shows that Diaz isn't MLFA eligible until next year.

 
Thanks for catching that. Either I brainfarted when I was checking the other Diaz (i.e. Dayan) or I'm just a moron.
 
Even money on the latter.

 

[mabrowndog]

there are five locks in my view:

 
Swihart (C, SP.com #2 prospect)
E.Rodriguez (P, SP.com #10 prospect)
Barnes (P, SP.com #12 prospect)
Coyle (INF, SP.com #13 prospect)
Shaw (1B, SP.com #23 prospect)
 
My current picks would be Diaz and Ramirez, but I think they'll send a number of the players on this list to the AFL for further evaluation.

 
Looks like we're in agreement on all seven. And you're probably right in not adding Diaz as a lock just yet.
 
What's your take on Jonathan Aro's ceiling? He was pretty old (20) when they signed him out of the Dominican, and he hasn't advanced as quickly as the club might have wanted (just got promoted to Salem last week), but everything I've seen about his FB/changeup combo has been solid and his K/BB numbers seem to back it up (49/12 for Lowell in 2012, 74/22 for Greenville in 2013).
 
I do think he's a longshot to be selected by anyone and he's well behind several of Boston's bullpen candidates, so on further review I probably need to drop him a few rungs on the "preference" ladder. Especially since unlike most other Latin American signees he doesn't have any more growing up to do physically.

 

[amfox1]

 
What's your take on Jonathan Aro's ceiling? He was pretty old (20) when they signed him out of the Dominican, and he hasn't advanced as quickly as the club might have wanted (just got promoted to Salem last week), but everything I've seen about his FB/changeup combo has been solid and his K/BB numbers seem to back it up (49/12 for Lowell in 2012, 74/22 for Greenville in 2013).

 
He profiles as a middle reliever ceiling. 

 

[amfox1]

I think Ramos is an interesting guy, though. He seemed to me like a lock to be protected earlier this year Then the injury happened and he hasn't been back since. I know it's easy to stash a pitcher for a year, but is there a chance someone would take a chance on a guy with his profile?

 
Sure, there's a chance but it will be difficult for a team to keep him in the majors all year, even as a 4th/5th OF.  Because he doesn't have a standout tool, there's less chance of a team carrying him for the plus tool (speed and/or defense, for instance in an outfielder, or fastball, in the case of a reliever).  He really needs another year or two of development and the injury this year does not help him.

 

[mabrowndog]

Alex Wilson is one of the guys I thought might be a DFA candidate, but now I'm not as convinced. At the very least he's looking like a desirable piece for the club to offer as part of a trade package.
 
Wilson's only made 3 appearances in 2 call-ups since the trade deadline, but he's pitched well enough to complicate matters. He's pounded the zone far more efficiently (69% of pitches for strikes) than in previous Boston stints (60%).
 
There are still two negatives that might minimize his attractiveness to other teams: He'll only have one minor league option left, and he turns 28 this fall. But if he's DFAd and left unprotected, I think it's more likely he gets drafted than not.

 

[Detts]

IMHO if Butler goes unprotected he will get drafted as a backup for someone.

 

[JakeRae]

IMHO if Butler goes unprotected he will get drafted as a backup for someone.

Butler cannot simply go unprotected. He would need to be DFA'd then pass through waivers. Any interested team would grab him at that point, gain full control, and be able to use his remaining option to stash him in AAA for another year.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Butler cannot simply go unprotected. He would need to be DFA'd then pass through waivers. Any interested team would grab him at that point, gain full control, and be able to use his remaining option to stash him in AAA for another year.

Yes.  If they really don't have a place for him I would imagine he gets dealt (as a throw in or in a minor deal) rather than DFA'd.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

First of all:
 
Great breakdown. Thanks for doing all that work.

Ditto; thanks again for taking the time to post.

Don't have anything substantive to add but it's a shame Britton never pulled things together for the Red Sox. My gut feeling, however, that Britton figures it out at some point and has three to five years of effectiveness in the future.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Any chance that our deal with Chicago (us getting PTBNL from them after the rule 5 draft) could be Chicago selecting an unprotected player from us and then sending that player back as the PTBNL?

 

[Plympton91]

Does anyone know the scouting report on Carson Blair's defense. He's putting together a very good offensive season, though old for both levels. If he's seen as a good defender someone may sake a chance on him as a backup catcher.

 

[mabrowndog]

He was drafted as a HS infielder and played only 3B during his abbreviated debut season with GCL, but the Sox converted him to catcher over the winter. A strong arm & release, but still small-bodied for the position and his blocking and pitch framing need work.
 
This has been Blair's best season to date in terms of managing the running game, having never before exceeded a 22% cut-down rate. But he nailed 25 of 77 in 51 G for Salem (32%) and has thrown out 2 of 4 in 9 G for Portland. He was also charged with 9 errors with Salem. But these are just numbers, and we have no idea how much the pitchers or baserunners contributed to his throw-out success (or hindered it previously), or the nature of those errors.
 
If someone drafting Dan Butler might be considered a stretch, then a team selecting Blair would be straining the coefficient of elasticity. He's caught just 192 games in 6 pro seasons since the changeover (with only 9 of those in AA), he's batted just 42 times above A-ball, he turns 25 in October, and he hasn't spent a single minute in AAA yet. This is a guy who'll be nearly impossible to keep on a 25-man MLB roster all season.

 

[Bigpupp]

Blair won't be picked in the rule 5, but he is a minor league free agent this off season. So there is a real possibility that not adding him to the 40 man means he will no longer in the org next year.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/players-added-to-the-40-man-roster-2.html
 

• 
  

  Joining the big league roster for the Red Sox are infielder Sean Coyle, lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, catcher Blake Swihart, and first baseman Travis Shaw, the club announced. That leave Boston with a full 40-man.