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2014 Padres: Its always sunny in San Diego

Discussion in 'Adopt-a-Team' started by Robert Plant, Jan 28, 2014.

  1. Robert Plant

    Robert Plant lurker

    Messages:
    664
    I'm going to start this a little early because I am more excited than I normally am about the Padres this year. I think they have a very good chance to surprise.  If not, they have a bunch of young pitchers who will be fun to watch.
     
    The starting rotation will be much improved just by the virtue of the fact that Edison Volquez, Clayton Richard and Jason Marquis will not be part of it. Even if they had been replaced with mediocre pitchers I would expect this to make a huge difference in the Padres record.  The upgraded rotation however could end up being outstanding.  If their top 3 starters  (Cashner, Johnson and Luebke) are healthy, they could be among the best in baseball.  Particularly exciting is Andrew Cashner. He was lights out post All Star break last year. Remember the game in which he faced the minimum number of batters?  His velocity actually increased as the season went on.  Johnson and Luebke are also excellent when healthy, but both are coming off injuries.
     
    In the likely event of rotation injuries, there is a ton of starting pitching depth.  I count 11 starters who are either in the rotation or ready to break into the majors.  I’d expect 2-4 of the young guys to stick at the major league level.
     
    The Padres also have  3 proven late inning guys in Street, Benoit and Torres. With the PETCO factor, their bullpen should be among the best in the business.
     
    The Padres defense was ranked 10th in MLB last year. With Cameron Maybin coming back to play center field and a maturing middle infield, I expect defense will be an area of strength again in 2014.
     
    However this is a team that scored only 618 runs in 2013 which made them 12th in the National league.  Injuries and PED suspensions hurt them.  Yasmani Grandal, Evereth Cabrera and Yonder Alonzo should be back this year and that will make a big difference. Acquiring Seth Smith also gives them some much needed depth off the bench and in the outfield. If nothing else, Smith should allow Carlos Quentin to rest more.  I also think it’s likely that some of the Padres young hitters will mature, in particular,  Grandal, Gyorco and Alonzo. However, even being optimistic, the Padres offense is likely to be slightly below average.  Come September if the Padres miss the wildcard by a few games, Josh Byrnes is going to wish he had gone out and gotten a lefty slugger.
     
    The elbow, shoulder and knee surgeons in San Diego have been busy the last few years and of course there is the possibility the Padres will continue their trend of having a ton of injuries.  Several key players are coming off major injuries to start the season and at a minimum I would expect Huston Street and Carlos Quentin to spend a fair amount of time hobbling around on the DL.
     
    However, If they have reasonable health and the rotation performs like it should, I would expect the Padres to be playing meaningful games in mid to late September.  Even if they get unlucky and have a lot of injuries, their improved starting pitching depth should still propel the Padres to be a competitive team.    
     
  2. Robert Plant

    Robert Plant lurker

    Messages:
    664
    Here are my projected lineups for the 2014 Padres. The stats are mostly courtesy of baseball-reference.
     
    Rotation
    Player, R or L. Career ERA+
     
    Andrew Cashner, R, 102
     
    Josh Johnson, R, 123
     
    Corey Luebke, L, 111
     
    Ian Kennedy, R, 101
     
    Tyson Ross, R, 86
     
     
    Starting Depth and/or MLBish Prospects
    Eric Stults
    Burch Smith
    Robbie Erlin
    Joe Wieland
    Casey Kelly
    Keyvius Sampson
     
     
    Bullpen
    Pitcher, R or L, Career ERA+
     
    Huston Street, R, 144
     
    Joaquin Benoit, R, 112
     
    Alex Torres, L, 201
     
    Dale Thayer, R, 95
     
    Nick Vincent, R, 177
     
    Tim Stauffer, R, 94
     
     
    Lineup vs RH Pitching
    Player/ Position    R,  L or SW      2013 OPS+     Career OPS vs RHP
     
    Evereth Cabrera /SS,  SW, 113 2013 OPS+, .666 Career OPS vs RHP
     
    Will Venable/CF,  L,  126 OPS+ ,  .775 Career OPS vs RHP
     
    Chase Headley/3rd,  SW,  116 OPS+,  .782 Career OPS vs RHP
     
    Carlos Quentin/LF,  R,  145 OPS+,  .844 Career OPS vs RHP
     
    Seth Smith/RF ,  L,  109 OPS+,  .844 Career OPS vs RHP
     
    Yasmani Grandal/C,  SW,  104 OPS+,  .776 Career OPS vs RHP
     
    Yonder Alonzo/1st,  L,  106 OPS+,  .772 Career OPS vs RHP
     
    Jed Gyorco/2b  R,  113 OPS+,  .715 Career OPS vs RHP
     
     
    Lineup vs LH Pitching
    Player/ Position   R,  L or SW,   2013 OPS+,   Career OPS vs LHP
     
    Evereth Cabrera/SS,   SW,   113 OPS+,   .688 Career OPS vs LHP
     
    Chris Denorfia/RF,  R,  111 OPS+,   .833 Career OPS vs LHP
     
    Jed Gyorco/2b  R,  113 OPS+,  .829 Career OPS vs LHP
     
    Carlos Quentin/LF   R,   145 OPS+,  .836 Career OPS vs LHP
     
    Chase Headley/3rd  SW,  116 OPS+,  .729 Career OPS vs LHP
     
    Kyle Blanks/1st    R,  97 OPS+,  .733 Career OPS vs LHP
     
    Nick Hundley/C     R,  94 OPS+,   .721 Career OPS vs LHP
     
    Cameron Maybin/CF,  R,  36 OPS+,  .642 Career OPS vs LHP
     
  3. Hoplite

    Hoplite lurker

    Messages:
    1,116
    That Padres should be an interesting team next year. If Tyson Ross is healthy, I think he has the potential to be the best pitcher in their rotation. I was very impressed with him as a starter (3.06 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 9.29 K/9, 53.3 GB%) and he seemed to get stronger as the year went on. Burch Smith also makes for an interesting depth option. He's dominated the minors and at times has been throwing in the mid-90's, but we didn't see that velocity from him in the majors. It should also be interesting to see if the adjustments Venable made to his swing, and the resulting power numbers, carry over in to next year. He was a .315/.357/.549 hitter in the second half.
     
  4. Robert Plant

    Robert Plant lurker

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  5. Investor 11

    Investor 11 Plobbably the greatest videographer ever Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    2,810
  6. Robert Plant

    Robert Plant lurker

    Messages:
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  7. TheYaz67

    TheYaz67 Member SoSH Member

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    4,712
    Nice start to the season for the Pads! 
     
    Not going to be a fun 2014 in Dodger land if Brian Wilson pitches like that all year...
     
  8. Investor 11

    Investor 11 Plobbably the greatest videographer ever Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    2,810
  9. MakMan44

    MakMan44 stole corsi's dream SoSH Member

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    19,310
    It's interesting, to me at least, that they did not change his base salary for this year but rather, added clauses and such to potentially raise his salary this season. 
     
  10. EP Sox Fan

    EP Sox Fan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,380
    Perhaps not the optimal place for this but El Paso is the new home of the Padres AAA franchise. Our brand spanking new downtown ballpark is set to open in two weeks. Myself and a group of folks pitched in and got season tickets. We haven't had minor league baseball since the DBacks AA affiliate moved about 7 years ago and I'm really looking forward to going to the games. I know old friend Raymond Fuentes and. MLB vets Kyle Blanks and Jeff Francouer. Anyone else of interest to keep an eye on?
     
  11. Investor 11

    Investor 11 Plobbably the greatest videographer ever Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    You should watch this. Actually, everyone should.

    http://deadspin.com/jeff-francoeurs-teammates-pulled-a-hilarious-month-long-1562734995
     
  12. mauidano

    mauidano Mai Tais for everyone! SoSH Member

    Messages:
    27,228
    Looking to go to the Padres/Phillies game on Monday Sept. 15. Any advice on where to sit at Petco? Club levels worth it? How's the ballpark tour?
     
  13. jasvlm

    jasvlm lurker

    Messages:
    176
    Since this is a Padre thread, I'll chime in.  Preller has been very aggressive in terms of investigating options to remake the roster, and I believe that he'll make some bold strokes this offseason.  The main asset the Padres possess is their youngish pitching, led by Cashner and Ross, both of whom are cost controlled at least through 2016.  My guess is that the Padres and Red Sox match up well in a possible deal, with Boston sending Cespedes, Middlebrooks and perhaps someone like Barnes/Raunado to San Diego for Cashner.  If Preller were to ask for Margot or Devers instead of a pitching prospect, it would be a harder deal for Boston, but it still might go through.  Just something to watch.
     

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